Thursday, November 15th 2012

PC Industry Stares Faces Years Long Recession: Analyst

Ben Reitzes, an analyst with Barclays, slashed his already grim outlook for PC sales, and cautioned that demand for PCs could drop for "years to come." In his report, Reitzes writes "We are lowering our 2012-2016 PC forecasts due to weak macro conditions, confusion around Windows 8, ongoing cannibalization from tablets, and an elongation in replacement cycles," adding "Also, a long-running belief by PC leaders is that emerging markets are destined to reach the 100% PC-penetration rate (per person) that exists today in the U.S., however, we believe that key markets may only reach a fraction of the U.S. penetration rate as consumers now realize a balance between tablets and smart phones – at a far earlier stage in development."

A major factor in declining PC sales could be slow PC replacement rate, "with analysis pointing toward a 1-2 year extension in the replacement rate from 2010-2015 due to income diverted to 'disruptive' mobile products like tablets and smart phones across the globe." Among the companies whose price targets and estimates Reitzes cut are HP and Dell.Source: Forbes
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58 Comments on PC Industry Stares Faces Years Long Recession: Analyst

#1
phanbuey
Lenovo seems to be doing just fine... what they don't mention is alot of dells recent product has been awful, as with HP - their devices continue to get sub-par reviews, especially on the laptop side.

The products that don't suck - the XPS series, is doing better than all the other lines. I think they are ignoring quality a bit.
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#2
TheMailMan78
Banstick Dummy
Told you so. Desktops are going the way of the dinosaur. Once people realized they could stream porn on a tablet in air port bathrooms, desktops were doomed to oblivion......and I don't mean Skyrim.
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#3
tacosRcool
That is why Microsoft is pushing tablets with windows 8. They saw it coming
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#4
Dj-ElectriC
I'm sticking to my PC to the bitter end, like a family member sticks to his other member to the verge of death.
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#5
Prima.Vera
You guys are dreaming. Desktops will NEVER die, common! They will ALWAYS be with the most powerful tech at the moment, especially for Games, CAD or 2D/3D design etc. Seriously you believe that?? :)))))

And the article is a little misleading. Sure PC companies may go bankrupt, but this is because the users are getting smarter and prefer to assembly the PC for themselves instead of buying an overpriced build.
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#6
TheMailMan78
Banstick Dummy
by: Prima.Vera
You guys are dreaming. Desktops will NEVER die, common! They will ALWAYS be with the most powerful tech at the moment, especially for Games, CAD or 2D/3D design etc. Seriously you believe that?? :)))))

And the article is a little misleading. Sure PC companies may go bankrupt, but this is because the users are getting smarter and prefer to assembly the PC for themselves instead of buying an overpriced build.
Less then 1% of the market builds its own PC. Games are ports and CAD 2D/3D is a small nitch market that will not allow the big boys to survive on it alone that and you have render farms. Desktop PC's are gonna be ham radios soon. Ive been saying it for years and now this kinda news validates me.......AHHHHHH THE VALIDATION!
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#7
digibucc
by: TheMailMan78
Desktop PC's are gonna be ham radios soon.
it's always an occasion when mailman and i agree, and this is one of those. granted there will likely always exist an enthusiast market, but it's so small compared to total technology sales that it really doesn't amount to anything.

with powerful tablets and even more powerful laptops, the desktop pc will no doubt be relegated to "power" users or those that simply like to tinker, which as mailman said is a tiny niche in the market.
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#8
Frick
Fishfaced Nincompoop
by: TheMailMan78
Less then 1% of the market builds its own PC. Games are ports and CAD 2D/3D is a small nitch market that will not allow the big boys to survive on it alone that and you have render farms. Desktop PC's are gonna be ham radios soon. Ive been saying it for years and now this kinda news validates me.......AHHHHHH THE VALIDATION!
You don't deserve that! :mad:

But seriously I agree with you. Enthusiasts will have to turn to workstations, sooner or later. I'm guessing later. And if you've been saying it for years it can't be soon. :p
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#9
Depth
*sigh* So in twenty years time we will become one of those grumpy elders we have today that cling onto their old 1960 analogue radio receiver

Don't touch my i7, dang kids!

Well, probably won't be that bad, if we get 28'' laptops ("Benchtops"?)
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#10
iTile
I think many many have forgotten that there are people with 2 or More PCs for themselves, and still have a smartphone and a tablet. The overall penetration rate is inaccurate because 1 Person can count for 3 or more devices including PCs.

THe reason there has been a slow down in PC sales is because there has been a change for the need to buy some or every person in the house or family a new PC, where 1 PC can be replaced and the older PC is handed down, to either grandparents or young kids who don't need a brand new PC thus there is no need to Replace everything. This is prolonging the lifespan of a PC in general.

This does of course mean that the sales is losing steam and companies should adjust to that. Lower production rate to accommodate the lower demand. Due to the less sales made by the companies its starting to cost more to manufacture a product because its not selling, this does cause the initual product thats sold to be marked up pretty high to cover for already manufactured product thats not selling, thus covering losses. Any form of loss for a company looks bad for its shareholders.

Barcleys though.. bleh their opinions and research is like a fart on a windy day...

And yeah The MS win 8 Surface I'd call more of a Hybrid between a tablet/notebook/PC. Kinda like one of those mythological creatures. MS step is in the better direction for the company and the future of developing PCs for general use. The enthusiasts have become the endangered Specie but thats what makes us so special :-)
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#11
3870x2
Stares Faces?

I am not happy about it, but the market will die. I am not sure how much power us enthusiasts have over the market, but hopefully it is enough for them to still remember us, and still be able to produce for us.

I can say that if anyone can save us, it will be Steam, but even then I think they would be more likely to go where the money is, and would rather have a steam platform on the tablet.

You heard it here first: Steam for Android.
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#12
TheMailMan78
Banstick Dummy
by: 3870x2
Stares Faces?

I am not happy about it, but the market will die. I am not sure how much power us enthusiasts have over the market, but hopefully it is enough for them to still remember us, and still be able to produce for us.

I can say that if anyone can save us, it will be Steam, but even then I think they would be more likely to go where the money is, and would rather have a steam platform on the tablet.

You heard it here first: Steam for Android.
They are building Steambox.
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#13
20mmrain
It may be only 1% of the market who sped their money on Desktop PC's because of the latest tech. But it is also one of the areas with the largest profit margin. Only one larger I can think of is the business server side of things.

So I do not agree that the PC enthusiast market will go away. Especially when the profit margin for tablets and mobile devices keeps getting lower and lower because of so much competition.
Right now why would Intel or Nvidia change over to making chips that they are only getting a 20% margin on when they can make the enthusiast chips can cards that they can mark up 200%?

However I don't think the 1% enthusiast market will grow in size either. It will stay about the size it is now.
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#14
yogurt_21
by: TheMailMan78
Less then 1% of the market builds its own PC. Games are ports and CAD 2D/3D is a small nitch market that will not allow the big boys to survive on it alone that and you have render farms. Desktop PC's are gonna be ham radios soon. Ive been saying it for years and now this kinda news validates me.......AHHHHHH THE VALIDATION!
desktops yes and no not because of tablets, those along with smartphones invade the laptop market.

TV's

yup tv's can now go on the net, be hooked to a wireless keyboard/mouse, hooked to netflix, and now google tv has gaming as well. Want cad/photoshop workstation beefy stuff? virtualization. Sign up for a service and get access to a beefy virtual desktop that can run all that stuff. While file transfer back and forth is still a bit problematic, its becoming less and less of an issue.

Soon all you'll need is the tv and a mobile device (phone, tablet, etc) to manage all needs.

While gaming might create an upgrade your expensive tv often issue, virtualization might solve that as well. Can you imagine, all the money we spend on hardware filtered into a monthly service fee? Might even come as a bundle with your net service.
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#15
TheMailMan78
Banstick Dummy
by: 20mmrain
It may be only 1% of the market who sped their money on Desktop PC's because of the latest tech. But it is also one of the areas with the largest profit margin. Only one larger I can think of is the business server side of things.

So I do not agree that the PC enthusiast market will go away. Especially when the profit margin for tablets and mobile devices keeps getting lower and lower because of so much competition.
Right now why would Intel or Nvidia change over to making chips that they are only getting a 20% margin on when they can make the enthusiast chips can cards that they can mark up 200%?

However I don't think the 1% enthusiast market will grow in size either. It will stay about the size it is now.
The profit margin that 1% brings in is peanuts compared to the over all profit margin of the company. Why do you think Intel is cramming IGP on a single die and AMD the APU and Nvidia Tegra? There is ZERO point in creating massive desktops when 99% of the population does everything they need to on a tablet or phone.
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#16
yogurt_21
by: TheMailMan78
The profit margin that 1% brings in is peanuts compared to the over all profit margin of the company. Why do you think Intel is cramming IGP on a single die and AMD the APU and Nvidia Tegra? There is ZERO point in creating massive desktops when 99% of the population does everything they need to on a tablet or phone.
again not tablets or phones, TV's

you will always want the larger screen for gaming/photoshop/multi-tasking, etc.

Tv's are now beginning to come out as the aiw home solution while a large screen smartphone acts as the aiw on the go solution.

ad car docking stations with projectors onto the windshield (no that's not the future, 2000-2003 pontiacs had that for the speedometer/odometer/etc) and your phone becomes your on to go desktop. Virtualization links it all. No matter where you are you sign into the same virtual desktop.
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#17
TheMailMan78
Banstick Dummy
by: yogurt_21
again not tablets or phones, TV's

you will always want the larger screen for gaming/photoshop/multi-tasking, etc.

Tv's are now beginning to come out as the aiw home solution while a large screen smartphone acts as the aiw on the go solution.

ad car docking stations with projectors onto the windshield (no that's not the future, 2000-2003 pontiacs had that for the speedometer/odometer/etc) and your phone becomes your on to go desktop. Virtualization links it all. No matter where you are you sign into the same virtual desktop.
TV's are not effecting the market yet. This is all tablet and smart phone based.
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#18
yogurt_21
by: TheMailMan78
TV's are not effecting the market yet. This is all tablet and smart phone based.
you have been in a hole somewhere then.

consolitis isn't entirely gaming based. Most of my friends use them to get online/netflix, etc.

do you realize there is an average of 3 tvs per household in the U.S.?

do you realize that the U.S. average is less than 2 active smartphones per household? Do you also realize that tablets barely even show up on a per household margin?
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#19
Frick
Fishfaced Nincompoop
by: Depth

Well, probably won't be that bad, if we get 28'' laptops ("Benchtops"?)
Those are called All-in-ones.
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#20
digibucc
by: yogurt_21
you have been in a hole somewhere then.

consolitis isn't entirely gaming based. Most of my friends use them to get online/netflix, etc.

do you realize there is an average of 3 tvs per household in the U.S.?

do you realize that the U.S. average is less than 2 active smartphones per household? Do you also realize that tablets barely even show up on a per household margin?
right - but how many people are right now choosing not to buy a desktop computer but to buy a tv with apps instead? not as many as those that are comparing a desktop with a smartphone tablet or netbook, i'd wager.

a TV is something they would likely buy anyway. the prevalence of them in homes only supports this. right now apps are something novel but it will take a while before they are taken seriously and in turn before tvs are taken seriously as an alternative to a personal computing device of some sort.
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#21
cadaveca
My name is Dave
by: digibucc
right - but how many people are right now choosing not to buy a desktop computer but to buy a tv with apps instead? not as many as those that are comparing a desktop with a smartphone tablet or netbook, i'd wager.

a TV is something they would likely buy anyway. the prevalence of them in homes only supports this. right now apps are something novel but it will take a while before they are taken seriously and in turn before tvs are taken seriously as an alternative to a personal computing device of some sort.
Wireless TVs making a debut at CES in a few months says "Hello!"

The only desktop form factor I see with longevity is mITX. Just sayin. :p

Oh, and there will be "apps" that make those desktops necessary. Like, say...cable service? Game service? What is lacking right now is a proper amount of ingenuity and foresight in the market. All a device needs is ONE..JUST ONE killer app, that people MUST have. Win8...has nothing. However, if the XBOXtablet comes...soon...

WiiU plays an important role in user mindset when it comes to prolonging desktop longevity as a consumer device. If you do not understand how, well, oh well. :p
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#22
Easy Rhino
Linux Advocate
give the consumer a need for a big beefy desktop and watch desktop sales come back. software is getting more efficient and so is hardware which accounts for the boom in mobile phones and apps. video games are no longer pushing desktop sales because developers are no longer pushing high end graphics.
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#23
vawrvawerawe
by: Prima.Vera
You guys are dreaming. Desktops will NEVER die, common! They will ALWAYS be with the most powerful tech at the moment, especially for Games, CAD or 2D/3D design etc. Seriously you believe that?? :)))))

And the article is a little misleading. Sure PC companies may go bankrupt, but this is because the users are getting smarter and prefer to assembly the PC for themselves instead of buying an overpriced build.
I agree with you. Desktops are probably never going to die. At least, not anytime soon.
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#24
Easy Rhino
Linux Advocate
by: vawrvawerawe
I agree with you. Desktops are probably never going to die. At least, not anytime soon.
maybe not but they will get a lot more expensive as demand decreases...
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#25
Chevalr1c
If I built this desktop of mine from scratch now, I had also been choosing for a form factor of mATX or less. Times are changing. The desktop won't die (there will be a time during which saving on the battery will be an important economic factor) but they will get smaller. A lot smaller.
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