Tuesday, February 19th 2013

Jon Peddie Research Reports Graphics Market Down 8.2% in Q4 2012

Jon Peddie Research (JPR), the industry's research and consulting firm for graphics and multimedia, announced estimated graphics chip shipments and suppliers' market share for Q4'12.

The news was disappointing for every one of the major players. AMD dropped 13.6%, Intel slipped the least, just 2.9%, and Nvidia declined the most with 16.7% quarter-to-quarter change, this coming on the heels of a spectacular third quarter. The overall PC market actually grew 2.8% quarter-to-quarter while the graphics market declined 8.2% reflecting a decline in double-attach. That may be attributed to Intel's improved embedded graphics, finally making "good enough" a true statement.


On a year-to-year basis we found that total graphics shipments during Q4'12 dropped 11.5% as compared to PCs which declined by 5.6% overall. GPUs are traditionally a leading indicator of the market, since a GPU goes into every system before it is shipped and most of the PC vendors are guiding down for Q1'13.

The turmoil in the PC market has caused us to modify our forecast since the last report; it is less aggressive on both desktops and notebooks. The popularity of tablets and the persistent recession are the contributing factors that have altered the nature of the PC market. Nonetheless, the CAGR for PC graphics from 2012 to 2016 is 3.2%, and we expect the total shipments of graphics chips in 2016 to be 549 million units.

The ten-year average change for graphics shipments for quarter-to-quarter is a growth of -1.3%. This quarter is below the average with an 8.2% decrease.

Our findings include discrete and integrated graphics (CPU and chipset) for Desktops, Notebooks (and Netbooks), and PC-based commercial (i.e., POS) and industrial/scientific and embedded. This report does not include handhelds (i.e., mobile phones), x86 Servers or ARM-based Tablets (i.e. iPad and Android-based Tablets), Smartbooks, or ARM-based Servers. It does include x86-based tablets.

The quarter in general

● AMD's quarter-to-quarter total shipments of desktop heterogeneous GPU/CPUs, i.e., APUs increased 0.8% from Q3 and declined 19.1% in notebooks. The company's overall PC graphics shipments slipped 13.6%.
● Intel's quarter-to-quarter desktop processor-graphics EPG shipments increased from last quarter by 3%, and Notebooks fell by 6.76%. The company's overall PC graphics shipments dropped 2.9%.
● Nvidia's quarter-to-quarter desktop discrete shipments fell 15.1% from last quarter; and, the company's mobile discrete shipments dropped 18.4%. The company's overall PC graphics shipments declined 16.7%.
● Year to year this quarter AMD shipments declined 29.4%, Intel dropped 5%, Nvidia slipped 4.6%, and VIA fell 10% from last year.
● Total discrete GPUs (desktop and notebook) 15.9% from the last quarter and were down 9.7% from last year for the same quarter due to the same problems plaguing the overall PC industry. Overall the trend for discrete GPUs is up with a CAGR to 2016 of 3.2%.

Ninety nine percent of Intel's non-server processors have graphics, and over 67% of AMD's non-server processors contain integrated graphics; AMD still ships IGPs.

Year to year for the quarter the graphics market decreased. Shipments were down 3 million units from the same quarter last year.

Graphics chips (GPUs) and chips with graphics (IGPs, APUs, and EPGs) are a leading indicator for the PC market. At least one and often two GPUs are present in every PC shipped. It can take the form of a discrete chip, a GPU integrated in the chipset or embedded in the CPU. The average has grown from 1.2 GPUs per PC in 2001 to almost 1.4 GPUs per PC.
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14 Comments on Jon Peddie Research Reports Graphics Market Down 8.2% in Q4 2012

#1
TheMailMan78
Banstick Dummy
The writing is on the wall folks.
Posted on Reply
#2
Fourstaff
by: TheMailMan78
The writing is on the wall folks.
Indeed it is, AMD has a future in APUs, Nvidia's as a co-processor
Posted on Reply
#3
Fx
This has everything to do with our decaying economies; not so much technology demand.
Posted on Reply
#4
Fourstaff
by: Fx
This has everything to do with our decaying economies; not so much technology demand.
Or the fact that our computers are "powerful enough", when I bought my laptop more than 3 years ago it was already outdated. I still haven't found enough reason to get a new one, despite being at least 5 year old tech.
Posted on Reply
#6
Xzibit
by: Fx
This has everything to do with our decaying economies; not so much technology demand.
People are still buying GPUs. During the holiday season the highest selling Quarter for the companies the declines werent so bad for either one.

GPU division
AMD
-5%

Nvidia
-6.5%


The problem is GPUs are becoming a much smaller market. The low-to-middle is were the money is made and the more powerful the APUs become the less need the majority of the users find a need for a discret solution.

Discret solution are at 15% improvement cycles 1-2yrs. Compare that to Integrated solutions that have come up in the last 2yrs to nip at the heels of the low end discrets. Also compare that to the mobile which is moving at a 40% improvement increase in cycles 1yr-to-1 1/2yrs. The alternatives and the need to upgrade are else were for the masses.
Posted on Reply
#7
Easy Rhino
Linux Advocate
give pc gamers a reason to upgrade (intense grapics) and you will see a rise in gpu sales. duh.
Posted on Reply
#8
NdMk2o1o
by: Easy Rhino
give pc gamers a reason to upgrade (intense grapics) and you will see a rise in gpu sales. duh.
True and in the same breath the majority of users will be moaning their asses off cause they have to buy a new GPU just for a game (remember Crysis 1) :laugh:
Posted on Reply
#9
Easy Rhino
Linux Advocate
by: NdMk2o1o
True and in the same breath the majority of users will be moaning their asses off cause they have to buy a new GPU just for a game (remember Crysis 1) :laugh:
first world problems :laugh:
Posted on Reply
#10
Aquinus
Resident Wat-man
Is this just retail sales or retail plus OEM? If it's retail sales, then you need games to demand more. If it's OEM and retail sales its a sign of how badly the market is doing in general, not just with GPUs.
Posted on Reply
#11
Easy Rhino
Linux Advocate
by: Aquinus
Is this just retail sales or retail plus OEM? If it's retail sales, then you need games to demand more. If it's OEM and retail sales its a sign of how badly the market is doing in general, not just with GPUs.
good question. i keep hearing that pc game sales are outpacing console sales. now i see that gpu sales are down. this just shows that games put out in the past few years simply do not need the hardware that has been created in the past year or so. not surprising really as bored consolers look to their pc to play these new games as moderate settings.

this is why i said this next gen of consoles is going to determine the fate of PC gaming. if these next gens are very popular then pc gaming is pretty much dead. gpu sales will continue to decline and all of the pc games sales will shift to consoles. if the consoles are a bust then we will have new life in the pc gaming market even if it means slow progression in graphics.
Posted on Reply
#12
Jorge
Before you know it, someone will acknowledge a world wide economic recession...
Posted on Reply
#13
Aleksander
100.2%....
Those people don't know math!
Anyway, it is boring to see Intel more market share than AMD + Nvidia
I am surprised that AMD has more market share than Nvidia.
Posted on Reply
#14
tokyoduong
by: Aleksander
100.2%....
Those people don't know math!
Anyway, it is boring to see Intel more market share than AMD + Nvidia
I am surprised that AMD has more market share than Nvidia.
Intel and AMD's marketshare is more about integrated gpus. Since intel owns most of the cpu market, they will own most of the gpu market share because they forced you to buy it. At least AMD's apu is actually useful. The intel HD4000 is pretty useful too but mostly in general stuff like web browsing.
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