So let me get this straight in my head.
MS spent the majority of this conference talking about the multimedia features of the Xbox One. We're going to look past the name, the numerous details that MS never mentioned, and the fact that almost no real information was conveyed here.
MS has three problems.
1) Used game market killers will make consumers and retail chains less than happy about spending $60 on a game, as resales will be forced to a lower price to make them reasonable. Consumers will bear the brunt of the value decrease, as a fat profit margin for used games disappear and the selection of more affordable games evaporates. This means lower sales figures overall, and consumers waiting for the prices of games to drop to more reasonable levels before purchase. A lose-lose-lose for consumers, publishers, and retailers.
2) Constant connection. Any continual dial-home feature is DRM. Those consumers than cannot have this connectivity will be out in the cold. Those who believe this "feature" is an excuse to monitor usage will not touch the console. There is a good reason the idiot that said "just deal with it" got fired. MS might have done the best thing for PR and fired him, but they might be riding those sentiments into their next console.
3) Exclusivity. The PS4 and Xbox will functionally be cousins. They have nearly the same hardware setup, and that necessitates some similarities in design. Likewise, the PC and a dozen different devices already do what the Xbox One purports to do. So where does that leave the, presumable, gaming console. It doesn't bring anything substantially better than a mid-tier PCs parts, it doesn't beat out other media devices for content provision. It doesn't even deliver a unique input medium, as the controllers are already capable of being used on any windows PC. Why would anyone with the money for an Xbox buy it?
There is only one way I see the Xbox One succeeding. Drop the new DRM features. Make new games cost $45, and have every game have an additional component withheld for $10. This component needs to not be necessary for the game, but it needs to be something that consumers who like a game would be willing to purchase. The publisher and MS divvy up this $10 expenditure, which should insure used game sales still benefit publishers. That comes in at $5 less expense for a customer, and the first time the content is purchased under resale the money that is "lost" will be recouped.
MS makes used game sales possible, forces prices to the consumers to go down, and still increases their earnings. I don't think MS has the balls to do this, because they have never shown this much initiative. In the same respect, I think the Xbox One will languish and be seen as underperforming. All of this is the fault of MS, as they seem to be stumbling about blindly in the dark. Windows 8 isn't the revelation MS wanted. Windows on my gaming console is foolish experiment.
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