United States Ease Stance on NVIDIA AI Chip Exports to China

[AleksandarK]

The United States is softening restrictions on the significant GPU maker NVIDIA, selling artificial intelligence chips to China. While still limiting advanced chip exports deemed strategically threatening, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo clarified this week that NVIDIA could supply some AI processors to Chinese commercial companies. Previously, Raimondo had sharply criticized NVIDIA for attempting to sidestep regulations on selling powerful GPUs abroad. Her comments followed rumors that NVIDIA tweaked chip designs to avoid newly imposed export controls narrowly. However, after discussions between Raimondo and NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, the Commerce Department says NVIDIA and other US firms will be permitted to export AI chips to China for general commercial use cases. Exports are still banned on the very highest-end GPUs that could enable China to train advanced AI models rivaling American developments.

Raimondo said NVIDIA will collaborate with the US to comply with the export rules. Huang reaffirmed the company's commitment to adherence. The clarification may ease pressures on NVIDIA, as China accounts for up to 25% of its revenue. While optimistic about recent Chinese approvals for US joint ventures, Raimondo noted frustrations linger around technology controls integral to national security. The nuanced recalibration of restrictions illustrates the balances the administration must strike between economic and security interests. As one of the first big US technology exporters impacted by tightened restrictions, NVIDIA's ability to still partly supply the valuable Chinese chip market points to a selective enforcement approach from regulators in the future.



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[thesmokingman]

Huang reaffirmed the company's commitment to adherence.

Now that's ironic as they were dumping gpus to the east from out the back of the truck. Jokes aside, give them clear rules stop seesawing, smh.

 

[Arpeegee]

Huang must have greased their palms, maybe some nice stock options...

This is why corporations don't take governments (or laws) seriously :/ .

 

[evernessince]

Someone got paid off. Nvidia spent every waking moment attempting to circumvent chip export restrictions clearly in bad faith to the spirit of the sanctions. You don't reward that kind of behavior with a further loosened stance, that will only encourage Nvidia to further ignore the restrictions. At this point they might as well not even exist.

 

[ThrashZone]

Hi,
Big guy got his cut.

 

[Shihab]

The under-the-table theory is plausible, but it's also plausible someone figure out that having one your major corps losing quarter of its revenue is probably not a good thing.

 

[thesmokingman]

The under-the-table theory is plausible, but it's also plausible someone figure out that having one your major corps losing quarter of its revenue is probably not a good thing.

Yea, no when the reality is that corp is raping the industry at greater than 70% margins.

 

[Shihab]

Yea, no when the reality is that corp is raping the industry at greater than 70% margins.

The regulations in question weren't exactly about price gouging though, were they?

 

[thesmokingman]

The regulations in question weren't exactly about price gouging though, were they?

Make up your mind lol, you say its cuz they might lose a quarter of its revenue.... lmao revenue they get by raping the market. The fkn government should not be enabling corps like this to gouge the fuck out of the markets.

 

[A&P211]

I hope their stock finally hits over $500 and stays there, daddy needs a new fishing boat.

 

[Shihab]

Make up your mind lol, you say its cuz they might lose a quarter of its revenue.... lmao revenue they get by raping the market. The fkn government should not be enabling corps like this to gouge the fuck out of the markets.

International trade and domestic consumer protection are two different issues (when companies are domestic in both cases).

 

[Double-Click]

This wreaks of back-end bennies and while it's nothing new, it's still disgusting to me.
Lobbying and commercial influence needs to stop being a thing...

 

[Dristun]

Wouldn't be too surprised if the next admin drops these regulation attempts completely, because they're pointless. The only thing they can achieve long-term is nvidia losing money to chinese startups or huawei, that are either going to catch up on their own or somehow steal the IP as usual. It's simply better to let nvidia sell and have that money go directly to the US coffers.

 

[thesmokingman]

International trade and domestic consumer protection are two different issues (when companies are domestic in both cases).

That's a clown reply. They created restrictions to slow China's AI progress. But you chip in "but it's also plausible someone figure out that having one your major corps losing quarter of its revenue is probably not a good thing."

So which is it?

 

[dragontamer5788]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. The strategic threat here is nukes, not AI. AI is a sideshow. These GPUs are used in nuclear simulations, and there's been an alarming rise in Chinese nuclear weapons this year.

While still limiting advanced chip exports deemed strategically threatening

That's the keyword for nukes. Specifically, computers that could be used for nuclear simulations.

 

[kapone32]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. The strategic threat here is nukes, not AI. AI is a sideshow. These GPUs are used in nuclear simulations, and there's been an alarming rise in Chinese nuclear weapons this year.



That's the keyword for nukes. Specifically, computers that could be used for nuclear simulations.

The Tomahawk could hit a target within meters of what it was given. That is 90s technology. The US and USSR created Minuteman in the 60s, that is Nukes that take less than 8 minutes to hit targets on another continent. All of the countries that had nukes tested them from the 50s until the 70s. Only Vietnam has engaged in that activity lately. Nuclear has been studied fully by now.

One of the things AI is for is the new battlefield of Drone (Currently Air based) technology. Indeed to create a Terminator. Have you seen how dexterous the robot Raytheon created is? Have you thought that the root of Tesla's self driving is Nvidia. As we love to keep lists, one of the things AI can be used for has already been reported by the AI drones from Iran being loaded with the lists of Nato weaponry to recognize and destroy those assets in Ukraine.

 

[dragontamer5788]

The Tomahawk could hit a target within meters of what it was given. That is 90s technology. The US and USSR created Minuteman in the 60s, that is Nukes that take less than 8 minutes to hit targets on another continent. All of the countries that had nukes tested them from the 50s until the 70s. Only Vietnam has engaged in that activity lately. Nuclear has been studied fully by now.

In the last 3 years, China has increased its nuclear stockpile from ~220 warheads to well over 500 today (Above graphic is out of date: January 2023), more than doubling its nuclear warheads in a short period.

Say what you will about AI or Drones or whatever. But it is clear that the Chinese plan is just straight up nukes. China wants to achieve strategic parity (aka: participate in MAD theory) vs the USA, and they need more nukes before they can reasonably threaten / participate in MAD.

No one tests in the open-air anymore because everyone's testing on supercomputers these days. Open-air tests (or even underground tests) of nukes have a problem of causing earthquakes (and other phenomenon) that alert other countries to what you are doing.

 

[Double-Click]

It's not just traditional weapons I'm concerned about. It's information, more specifically disinformation.

Nations like China and Russia already spam us with disinformation campaigns relentlessly.
Enhanced AI is only going to make that worse...

 

[dragontamer5788]

It's not just traditional weapons I'm concerned about. It's information, more specifically disinformation.

Nations like China and Russia already spam us with disinformation campaigns relentlessly.
Enhanced AI is only going to make that worse...

Sure. But GPUs ain't a major contributor to that per se, at least not anymore than the troll farms they already employ.

On the other hand: GPUs will create more accurate, more explosive, and more-reliable nukes for China. That's good enough reason to be worried about the "strategic threat", as US Policymakers like to put it.

------------

Drones and other weapons are just weapons research. They're not "strategic" threats. The strategic threats are nukes, and space. Space because rocketships might deliver nukes, and nukes because they're nukes.

I'm not even convinced that drones are the #1 weapon in Ukraine or Israel/Hamas right now. (Israel showing off what those Trophy active protection systems can do, while Ukraine has basically turned into trench warfare + artillery battles, where HIMARS is the differentiating factor right now).

Sure, drones can defeat the tanks in Ukraine. But Israel's Trophy Active Protection System (aka: shotgun on an aimbot) seems to be reliably shooting down RPGs and other such weapons (ie: 500mph rockets and drones) trying to take down Israel's tanks. In any case, tactical-level weapons are solved with other tactical-level weaponry (APS, MACE, etc. etc. See this youtube). GPUs (or AI) not needed at all... either for attack or defense.

 

[Dr. Dro]

Someone got paid off. Nvidia spent every waking moment attempting to circumvent chip export restrictions clearly in bad faith to the spirit of the sanctions. You don't reward that kind of behavior with a further loosened stance, that will only encourage Nvidia to further ignore the restrictions. At this point they might as well not even exist.

Bad faith? They're literally doing what any business must to ensure its viability and profitability: comply with government restrictions. Narrowly or not doesn't matter, they have to offer the highest performance product they can to be competitive, and if this is just under the limit of a government-imposed sanction, so be it.

This irrational hatred towards Nvidia on these forums has developed into some sort of derangement syndrome at this point. It's a hatred so intense that the mere mention of Nvidia or Jensen Huang impairs one's judgment, as if each and every decision this company made, each product that it released, and each market that it decided to cater to is axiomatically and principally due to some incredibly evil, nefarious, spurious wrong and dangerous reason.

It's not just traditional weapons I'm concerned about. It's information, more specifically disinformation.

Nations like China and Russia already spam us with disinformation campaigns relentlessly.
Enhanced AI is only going to make that worse...

And what's to say that our own governments don't intend on using this technology this way in order to sway and influence both internal and external policy? Help perpetuate power? Or garner public support for external conflict? In essence, there are no good guys in this story.

 

[evernessince]

Bad faith? They're literally doing what any business must to ensure its viability and profitability: comply with government restrictions. Narrowly or not doesn't matter, they have to offer the highest performance product they can to be competitive, and if this is just under the limit of a government-imposed sanction, so be it.

This irrational hatred towards Nvidia on these forums has developed into some sort of derangement syndrome at this point. It's a hatred so intense that the mere mention of Nvidia or Jensen Huang impairs one's judgment, as if each and every decision this company made, each product that it released, and each market that it decided to cater to is axiomatically and principally due to some incredibly evil, nefarious, spurious wrong and dangerous reason.

Creating a 4090D that can can be flashed to a full 4090 to evade a sanctions meant to prevent China from getting 4090 level or greater cards is indeed acting in bad faith. No amount of grandstanding will change that. People are skeptical of Nvidia precisely because they have "accidentally" released workarounds to their artificial hardware restrictions themselves. Nvidia's past actions have more than earned the skepticism, far from the "irrational" hatred that you paint it. Nvidia doesn't need to sell 4090s to the Chinese market to ensure viability either, it's profit margin is a whopping 74%+ and it's revenue shot up some 1,000% plus in some categories. Let's just call this what it is, pure greed.

 

[Dr. Dro]

Creating a 4090D that can can be flashed to a full 4090 to evade a sanctions meant to prevent China from getting 4090 level or greater cards is indeed acting in bad faith. No amount of grandstanding will change that. People are skeptical of Nvidia precisely because they have "accidentally" released workarounds to their artificial hardware restrictions themselves. Nvidia's past actions have more than earned the skepticism, far from the "irrational" hatred that you paint it. Nvidia doesn't need to sell 4090s to the Chinese market to ensure viability either, it's profit margin is a whopping 74%+ and it's revenue shot up some 1,000% plus in some categories. Let's just call this what it is, pure greed.

The singular objective of any corporation is to make money, the so-called "greed". It is a business, not a charity. If you have a high profit margin, a high product yield, and a high demand, congratulations: your company is highly successful and has an excellent CEO. Investors will be avid to lend you their money. Your shares will be worth tons! All is well in the world.

There's no finalized specification for this card, so you're jumping the gun here, although one thing is certain: it's not a simple matter of reflashing the graphics card, especially if there are differences between their hardware configuration.

 

[kapone32]

View attachment 325192

In the last 3 years, China has increased its nuclear stockpile from ~220 warheads to well over 500 today (Above graphic is out of date: January 2023), more than doubling its nuclear warheads in a short period.

Say what you will about AI or Drones or whatever. But it is clear that the Chinese plan is just straight up nukes. China wants to achieve strategic parity (aka: participate in MAD theory) vs the USA, and they need more nukes before they can reasonably threaten / participate in MAD.

No one tests in the open-air anymore because everyone's testing on supercomputers these days. Open-air tests (or even underground tests) of nukes have a problem of causing earthquakes (and other phenomenon) that alert other countries to what you are doing

I can't buy Nukes. China already had nuclear before free trade. While not apparent unless you are focusing on the conflict, one of the things that Drones have been responsible for are the destruction of Russian Tanks and APCs. Even without being there we have seen the Russians add Top shades to those same vehicles. Now imagine if you had the capability to launch 500 drones running on 1 AI to do that. The mitigating factor in drones is the cost, on the human level and the financial level. A drone can destroy anything in the Russian or Ukraine(West) arsenal. That is at a cost of maybe $5000 max vs up to $25 Million for some of those Weapon systems. The Ukraine have even used Sea Drones to wreak havoc on the Russian Navy.

If nothing else War pushes technology. I promise you that Drone technology has proven very effective for all aspects of Warfare. Just think that the US has contracted Jordan to manufacture the Gephard as that is technology that is a result of unintended consequences as it is the most effective Weapon system against drones but was created before Drone technology was a thing.

I expect that all of the Countries that are going to be part of the next conflict are working on Robot Armies. As much as you might think that is far fetched Japan have already built one Aircraft Carrier. US pilots are training the Japanese on how to fly and land on a carrier. For someone who was born in the 70s, you have no idea how many oxymoron are those previous comments.

What is Ukraine? What is Syria? Why are there so many military resources going to Ukraine? So that people like you and me don't have to be conscripted into conflict if this was Poland or any of the Baltic states. If you have read history, you would see things like Venezuela invading Guyana, when they are establishing better relations with the West. One of the telling things is that the US quietly changed the draft to include Women a few months ago. That is not as a result of some movement for equality.

Even the end of the bloat relationship with China in terms of trade is an indication of what is to come. Apparently this morning a Chinese patrol boat rammed a Philippine vessel so we know who the bad guys are like an example of an Iranian gunboat going after a British Tanker and promising violence if anyone interfered. Do you know that the Iranians told the British Navy vessel that their English was poor after they said they would blow them away. Now that is a real oxymoron.

The singular objective of any corporation is to make money, the so-called "greed". It is a business, not a charity. If you have a high profit margin, a high product yield, and a high demand, congratulations: your company is highly successful and has an excellent CEO. Investors will be avid to lend you their money. Your shares will be worth tons! All is well in the world.

There's no finalized specification for this card, so you're jumping the gun here, although one thing is certain: it's not a simple matter of reflashing the graphics card, especially if there are differences between their hardware configuration.

That is a 1980s way of looking at things. You should read or watch the story of Hershey, PA.

 

[dragontamer5788]

China already had nuclear before free trade

A small fraction of the nukes that it made literally last year.

Now imagine if you had the capability to launch 500 drones running on 1 AI to do that.

Okay, I'm imagining it.

Bullet is cheap, and airburst deals with it. Didn't even need AI, just aimbots + machinegun + airburst rounds. The problem is that these systems are being blown up by long-range Russian Helicopters and Ukraine doesn't have F16s to deal with Russian Helicopters yet.

Airburst is a 1940s / WW2 era technology. Machinegun is also WW2 era. Add on a modern, relatively lightweight RADAR + computer system and bam, you've got dead drones.

You're acting like you're the only one who is paying attention to the war. Guess what? Northrop Grumman released videos 2+ years ago already showing the US counter-drone gun. This gun system is light enough to mount on a common F150 pickup truck (let alone the heavier Humvees or other heavier equipment the military has access to), and a 2nd F150 can load up the RADAR system to help aim. The problem you're talking about is solved. Its the "next level", the Helicopters that outrange such a gun with rockets, that Ukraine needs help with.

--------------

Replace machinegun with shotgun and you've got Israel's APS. Same-same really, but shotgun means that the "burst" is close-range and the "last line of defense" for the tanks the APS protects. APS is also designed for 500mph targets (aka: rockets) instead of drones, but it'd work just fine vs drones.

I'm not only paying attention to the Ukrainian war. I'm also paying attention to Israel, who actually has modern tech like APS on their tanks. Russia/Ukraine is fighting the 1980s war with 1980s equipment, they don't actually have the latest technology.

----------

There's no such counterweapon for masses of nukes. 500 nukes isn't enough for strategic parity, China (and any country attempting to reach MAD) needs enough that even with the 10% of nukes (or whatever) that get through our missile defense systems, enough of our cities blow up that China at least achieves MAD. That's why nuclear remains the forefront of strategic threat.

I expect that all of the Countries that are going to be part of the next conflict are working on Robot Armies.

Masses of robots that attack the enemy is called a "missile", they were invented in the 1940s (V1 Flying Bomb and V2 Rocket), and the difference is that today... we put nukes on them.

 

[Dr. Dro]

That is a 1980s way of looking at things. You should read or watch the story of Hershey, PA.

If anything, capitalism has become far more aggressive since the 1980's, with large strides towards its ideologically enforceable side being taken in the past decade or so. We are heading on a fast lane to the same kind of corporate dystopia depicted in Cyberpunk 2077, "woke" and "cancel culture" are merely the first symptoms of that.

But this is going to veer into a quite politically charged conversation, so I suppose it's better to call it quits here