AMD Announces Preliminary Third Quarter Results

[Cristian_25H]

AMD today announced that revenue for the third quarter ended September 29, 2012 is expected to decrease approximately 10 percent sequentially. The company previously forecasted third quarter 2012 revenue to decrease 1 percent, plus or minus 3 percent, sequentially. The lower than anticipated preliminary revenue results are primarily due to weaker than expected demand across all product lines caused by the challenging macroeconomic environment.

The company now expects third quarter gross margin to be approximately 31 percent; less than the previous expectation of approximately 44 percent primarily due to an inventory write-down of approximately $100 million due to lower anticipated future demand for certain products.



Third quarter gross margin was also negatively impacted by weaker than expected demand, which contributed to lower than anticipated average selling prices (ASPs) for the company's Computing Solutions Group products and lower than expected utilization of its back-end manufacturing facilities.

Operating expenses for the third quarter are expected to decline approximately 7 percent sequentially as a result of tightly controlled expenses in the quarter.

AMD will report third quarter 2012 results after market close on Thursday, October 18, 2012. AMD will hold a conference call for the financial community at 2:00 p.m. PT (5:00 p.m. ET) that day to discuss third quarter financial results and to provide information regarding expected fourth quarter results.

[Crap Daddy]

It was obvious things were not going well but this is getting ugly. Wonder what's gonna happen next?

[HumanSmoke]

Originally Posted by Crap Daddy

It was obvious things were not going well but this is getting ugly. Wonder what's gonna happen next?

> AMD stock heads towards $3/share
> AMD insert rumour that [large tech company with excess free cash reserve] is interested in acquiring AMD
> AMD share price lifts for a week
> AMD release PPS featuring ALL NEW*FUTURE FORWARD LOOKING*[insert future product/brand of unspecified feature set]

Wash.Rinse.Repeat.

Interesting that the stock price is now exactly half what it was ($6.49) the day Rory took the helm.
In related news, Chas D at SA notes that:

Sea Islands is not going to be a 2012 product, it is looking like a March 2013 release for now..[snip]...As far as performance goes, AMD was promising AIBs roughly a 30% speed boost from the new silicon a few months back. That we hear is fairly optimistic, with more measured sources saying 15% is more likely. AMD is power bound and die size equals cost...

Seems as though the reduced cash flow is now chewing hard into R&D...although, since the source is Charlie D, the chances are equally good that he's 100% wrong.

[Crap Daddy]

Originally Posted by HumanSmoke

AMD stock heads towards $3/share

It's worse. Half an hour ago it was "only" 7% down.

Now: After Hours: 2.90 -0.30 (-9.38%)

Sea Islands seem so far way when you're in the middle on an ocean full of sharks.

[TheGuruStud]

Originally Posted by HumanSmoke

Seems as though the reduced cash flow is now chewing hard into R&D...although, since the source is Charlie D, the chances are equally good that he's 100% wrong.

It's speculated that he's a paid marketeer of intel. His hate and disdain has been incredibly prevalent forever.

[cavemanthreeonesix]

start putting sensible price tags on your gpu's and people might start buying them again. £300+ for a top end card is just ****ing insult to their customers intelligence. Do they really think we dont understand a simple price performance analysis. The performance barely increases gen to gen but the prices keep going up.

[OneMoar]

Amd is about done methinks
unless they get a sudden massive influx of cash or deliver astounding good performance with pile driver there done they won't make it to 2015 I am not even sure they will make it to 2014...
50 some odd years is a pretty good run ... O well lesson learned trust your employees

[v12dock]

If they are profitable then who cares if revenue was down

[Melvis]

Originally Posted by v12dock

If they are profitable then who cares if revenue was down

Thats right and the answer to that question is....yes

[renz496]

Originally Posted by v12dock

If they are profitable then who cares if revenue was down

i think amd's employee does.

[Thefumigator]

Originally Posted by v12dock

If they are profitable then who cares if revenue was down

specially when the whole world's revenue was down....

[HumanSmoke]

Originally Posted by v12dock

If they are profitable then who cares if revenue was down

What makes you think AMD are profitable ?

With this updated guidance, it is now certain that the company will experience a net loss. With gross margins of 31%, revenues 10% down from the previous quarter to roughly $1.26B, and operating expenses down 7% from the prior quarter's $557M, the operating loss will likely be about $128M

Originally Posted by Crap Daddy

Sea Islands seem so far way when you're in the middle on an ocean full of sharks.

Yeah, and I'm not sure I trust the crew...

[the54thvoid]

Originally Posted by cavemanthreeonesix

start putting sensible price tags on your gpu's and people might start buying them again. £300+ for a top end card is just ****ing insult to their customers intelligence. Do they really think we dont understand a simple price performance analysis. The performance barely increases gen to gen but the prices keep going up.

I don't think that's an issue. By the same token Nvidia insult their customers by placing their product at a similar initial price point and keeping it there longer. Besides the expensive discrete gpu market isn't where the money is anyway. Price performance analysis is not relevant either. So many products out there are way overpriced for the performance they offer but they will still be bought by consumers. People still buy the i7 3960x model when they don't need it. Hell I bought the i7 3930k and i dont need it. But it was shiny and I bought it.

With Trinity out and getting positive reviews for an APU and AMD pushing it's relevance in small form factors maybe things will improve. The market is in flux now with the small portable electronic market gaining so much momentum. If AMD can make use of their smaller gpu focused designs, maybe they'll stick around a while longer.

[cdawall]

AMD is still to big to die. Someone will either buy them or they will be aloud to live in debt. What is odd is the graphics side is doing well the products perform as good and sometimes better than the competition. On the CPU side the APU's are starting to really catch on in laptops as well as inexpensive desktops. On the server side the BD chips hold on well enough in certain server markets which is AMD's big spenders. Just seems odd to me that their stock is under $3 a share right now. Seems to me like the upper management is doing a shit job at controlling a downward spiral.

[HumanSmoke]

Originally Posted by cdawall

AMD is still to big to die. Someone will either buy them or they will be aloud to live in debt.

If the cross licence agreements with Intel are rendered null and void if AMD are purchased then they probably don't rate high as an acquisition. I could see Intel buying AMD chips just to keep them viable enough to keep the FTC off their back.

Originally Posted by cdawall

What is odd is the graphics side is doing well the products perform as good and sometimes better than the competition.

ATI have always been less dysfunctional than AMD

Originally Posted by cdawall

On the CPU side the APU's are starting to really catch on in laptops as well as inexpensive desktops.

Unfortunately for AMD, the same can be said for the Sandy/Ivy Bridge ramps. Since the majority of OEM sales are entry level $450-599 type systems, it's probably safe to say that most buyers are only interested in basic functionality. It's also safe to say that the $100m write-down was due to unsold Llano inventory ( " Regarding the Llano overstock, CEO Rory Read says "we'll work through that in the next two quarters" and that the company will "execute inventory burn-off," which could mean processor discounts into the holiday season)

Originally Posted by cdawall

On the server side the BD chips hold on well enough in certain server markets which is AMD's big spenders

Seems like a false economy. The main drawcard for AMD's Valencia/Interlagos seems to be drop in compatibility with the existing C32/G34 sockets. With cloud computing (HSA) now being pushed front-and-centre, how much lead time is AMD giving Intel? Low power Xeon, increased bandwidth and lower latency/reduced encode/decode overhead PCI-E3.0 with DDR4 and 12 core Haswell-EX/-EP waiting in the wings makes a formidable obstacle to overcome. Enterprise class systems should be the frosting on the cake for any processor/platform vendor, and from what I see, AMD are still scavenging crumbs off the table.

Originally Posted by cdawall

Just seems odd to me that their stock is under $3 a share right now. Seems to me like the upper management is doing a shit job at controlling a downward spiral.

The crux of the whole problem imo. Just look at the board. Virtually the whole group of them that have presided over AMD's fortunes (or lack of) since before Barcelona's time, are still sitting on the board- they just add new faces to the core group...meanwhile the lengthy list of fired CEO's and VP's just gets longer. Everyone is fairly quick to blame Hector, Dirk and Co.....nobody seems to question the people that OK'ed the hires.

[cdawall]

Originally Posted by HumanSmoke

If the cross licence agreements with Intel are rendered null and void if AMD are purchased then they probably don't rate high as an acquisition. I could see Intel buying AMD chips just to keep them viable enough to keep the FTC off their back.

Which is fine since each of them owns one of the license they will just have to reach a new agreement. Since Intel owns the less useful side of the stick I don't know how well that would work out for them. Not owning the ability to make processors 64 bit seems like a really shitty side of things.

Originally Posted by HumanSmoke

ATI have always been less dysfunctional than AMD

This is true however with the volume of GPU's and chipsets pumped out under the ATi/AMD franchise you would think that alone would be able to hold up a company. It seems to hold up Nvidia without an issue.

Originally Posted by HumanSmoke

Unfortunately for AMD, the same can be said for the Sandy/Ivy Bridge ramps. Since the majority of OEM sales are entry level $450-599 type systems, it's probably safe to say that most buyers are only interested in basic functionality. It's also safe to say that the $100m write-down was due to unsold Llano inventory ( " Regarding the Llano overstock, CEO Rory Read says "we'll work through that in the next two quarters" and that the company will "execute inventory burn-off," which could mean processor discounts into the holiday season)

FM2+Llano will likely be dirt cheap to push them out. Just like AMD's introduction of dirt cheap dual, tri and quad core phenom's under the "B" series.

Originally Posted by HumanSmoke

Seems like a false economy. The main drawcard for AMD's Valencia/Interlagos seems to be drop in compatibility with the existing C32/G34 sockets. With cloud computing (HSA) now being pushed front-and-centre, how much lead time is AMD giving Intel? Low power Xeon, increased bandwidth and lower latency/reduced encode/decode overhead PCI-E3.0 with DDR4 and 12 core Haswell-EX/-EP waiting in the wings makes a formidable obstacle to overcome. Enterprise class systems should be the frosting on the cake for any processor/platform vendor, and from what I see, AMD are still scavenging crumbs off the table.

Piledriver continues to be drop in compatible with lower TDP's than the older Bulldozer modules. While it doesn't gain them everything how much work is it really to add another module onto the die? Isn't that the entire idea behind these modular dies anyway?

Originally Posted by HumanSmoke

The crux of the whole problem imo. Just look at the board. Virtually the whole group of them that have presided over AMD's fortunes (or lack of) since before Barcelona's time, are still sitting on the board- they just add new faces to the core group...meanwhile the lengthy list of fired CEO's and VP's just gets longer. Everyone is fairly quick to blame Hector, Dirk and Co.....nobody seems to question the people that OK'ed the hires.

Yep... I vote a full redux of the upper management especially within the marketing division.

[trickson]

This was not unexpected with unemployment at 10% - 20% in the USA and the world loosing so much money due to big banks and wall street! This was nothing that should have surprised any one at all. When FOOD and gas prices go up to equal ones pay check for the week who can spend any thing MORE if they just don't have it? It is simple no one has extra cash (600+) to spend on computers or there parts. It is only going to get worse as long as the OIL rich countries continue to DRIVE up prices and gas and food costs keep going up and pay checks keep getting smaller. Wake up it is economics 101!

[HumanSmoke]

Originally Posted by cdawall

Which is fine since each of them owns one of the license they will just have to reach a new agreement. Since Intel owns the less useful side of the stick I don't know how well that would work out for them. Not owning the ability to make processors 64 bit seems like a really shitty side of things.

I don't know the details of the cross-licence, but knowing the amount of muscle Intel wield, and the fact that the US Govt. is unlikely to look kindly on foreign ownership of a US semiconductor design house, it might not be too much of a leap to think that there are contigencies built in if AMD goes tits up. My guess is that that AMD could file Chapter 11, restructure and continue on. Fine for AMD- not fine for competition or us as consumers

Originally Posted by cdawall

This is true however with the volume of GPU's and chipsets pumped out under the ATi/AMD franchise you would think that alone would be able to hold up a company. It seems to hold up Nvidia without an issue.

Big difference. While desktop/mobile might be a near enough 50/50 split between AMD and Nvidia -give or take, Nvidia owns 80% of the pro graphics market, and more than that in math co-processors (HPC Tesla). Nvidia's decision when planning GPGPU with G80 to offer a complete hardware/software ecosystem (CUDA based apps like OptiX, SceniX for example) has kept Nvidia afloat (and cash rich). Business and enterprise have their own built in inertia, so AMD not only have to offer a better product -hardware and software/SDK's, they need Nvidia to fail in the eyes of pro clients.

Originally Posted by cdawall

FM2+Llano will likely be dirt cheap to push them out. Just like AMD's introduction of dirt cheap dual, tri and quad core phenom's under the "B" series.

The only way you make money off dirt cheap is to sell in huge volume. Revenue numbers might look good on selling at basement prices, but it doesn't pay for R&D for future projects

Originally Posted by cdawall

Piledriver continues to be drop in compatible with lower TDP's than the older Bulldozer modules. While it doesn't gain them everything how much work is it really to add another module onto the die? Isn't that the entire idea behind these modular dies anyway?

My argument has always been that AMD needs to have a bigger sustained presence. Replacing previous iterations of Opterons with Bulldozer, Piledriver just keeps AMD ticking over at the same level. Buying SeaMicro seems like a step in the right direction, but the volume of sales are still a long way from ideal. SeaMicro isn't that much of a goldmine- if it were then Intel would have purchased it

[v12dock]

Originally Posted by HumanSmoke

What makes you think AMD are profitable ?

I never claimed they were profitable. They are foregoing restructuring plus they more than likely scored a hat trick when next gen console graphics

[xenocide]

Originally Posted by v12dock

I never claimed they were profitable. They are foregoing restructuring plus they more than likely scored a hat trick when next gen console graphics

Minimal profit margins, not to mention it's their CPU division that is bleeding, not their GPU division. As a frame of reference--their CPU division is exponentially larger than their GPU division.

[seronx]

So, supposedly the AMD engineer count is around 6000 to 7000.

30% cut would lead to:
4,800 to 5,600.

Which leads to an employee loss of:
1,200 to 1,400.

This on top of the 10% of marketing and management cuts.

Which in turn will pave the way so AMD can continue to build notebook/tablet/smartphone chips with very competitive ASPs and very competitive performance.

[Frick]

Originally Posted by trickson

This was not unexpected with unemployment at 10% - 20% in the USA and the world loosing so much money due to big banks and wall street! This was nothing that should have surprised any one at all. When FOOD and gas prices go up to equal ones pay check for the week who can spend any thing MORE if they just don't have it? It is simple no one has extra cash (600+) to spend on computers or there parts. It is only going to get worse as long as the OIL rich countries continue to DRIVE up prices and gas and food costs keep going up and pay checks keep getting smaller. Wake up it is economics 101!

My ELECTRONICS better not increase I hate NATIOns there worse mh am!

[Super XP]

4 things.
- AMD's share price was already at or below $1.50. And they recovered.
- AMD needs to make major BOD changes in order to recover just as they did with the Athlon 64 era. There are a few high end personal that seem to care about there wallet and not AMD.
- AMD's Sea Islands (HD8900) may be a basic refresh of the HD7900. In order for them to release new hardware sooner. Picture the HD5800 > HD6900. But this time Sea Islands will provide better performance than what the HD6900 offered.
- AMD needs to push price/performance, they need to move a lot of hardware vs. Selling them at higher prices.

Just my input.

[Recus]

Advanced Mega Disappear. : D