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AMD to go bust by 2020 - analyst

Do you think AMD will go bust in the next few years?


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    119

qubit

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We contend that Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD) one of Silicon Valley’s semiconductor success stories, will file for bankruptcy by 2020. Since 2008, this legacy company has survived by slashing operating expenses, spinning off its manufacturing business and transitioning away from its core PC business to “growth markets”. While it may be succeeding in marketing its turnaround narrative to the market, we see ADM at a point of no return. We identify a toxic combination comprising an uncompetitive product portfolio, technological leap forwards by competitors, several structural challenges, poor positioning due to an ineffective strategy and a worsening balance sheet. While it is bagging some wins, the clock is ticking and AMD will be unable to drive profitability in industries where product leadership, rather than merely pricing, determines success.

That's what analysts Kerrisdale Capital believe, anyway. Well, AMD certainly isn't doing great, but I don't know if they're heading for bust or not. What do you think?

The link below will show the abstract and also download the pdf with the full report.

www.valuewalk.com/2015/05/advanced-micro-devices-inc-amd-bankrupt-by-2020
 
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...Intel being alone in the cpu segment...is such a thing even allowed ?...IF "we don not foresee the company surviving beyond 2020" can really happen, I want to believe that intel would (and they have both the mean and the reasons to) buy amd gpu bussiness...if nvidia was to be left alone too,nothing could keep them from selling x60 gpu at 300-400 bucks...AMD(ATI) going away would be the worst thing that could ever happen....
 

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I voted borderline, meaning they will get to the point that is likely to happen, but no one is going to let that happen. Having competition is a must, and we as consumers need it.
 

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In the CPU world Zen is absolutely needed, but they also make GPU's and afaik they're doing fine there. At least the GPU's are fine, sort of.
 

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AMD engineers have to much talent to go bust. I'm sure they would have a very long list of buyers if they were in that situation. All eyes are on AMD for 2016 it's really going to a make it or break it year for them.
 
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Voted borderline but I hope it doesn't happen. A monopoly in CPU and GPU would be bad for us.
 

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AMD engineers have to much talent to go bust. I'm sure they would have a very long list of buyers if they were in that situation. All eyes are on AMD for 2016 it's really going to a make it or break it year for them.

Agreed. The talent is there. The management failed hard over 9-10 years though. Lisa Su will have to continue to purge the management failures and juggle the perception of AMD for a while or AMD will be bought out and possibly chopped up. Either way most will not recognize the new AMD that emerges from this. AMD will actually want to make a profit in order to continue to survive. :eek:
 

FordGT90Concept

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It is definitely a possibility and probably even likely. AMD has 20 times less capital than they did just a decade ago; what's more, they have little of value having spun off their foundries as Global Foundries. AMD may have to turn into just a GPU company but they have so much invested into Zen they can't afford to do that. I don't see anything good in AMD's corporate future.

AMD's x86 license is too valuable to just slide into oblivion. AMD will be bought up but it might not happen until they file for bankruptcy when the price is the lowest possible. At the same time, I can't see Samsung wanting to compete directly with Intel unless x86 tablets become very popular in the next few years.
 

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Who gives a shit what a lazy ass good for nothing 'Analyst' says? The whole point of these little spouts of drivel is to knock market share price down a few notches to make it easier to buy in bulk stock. Every knock makes it easier to buy low so they can sell high when things turn around. AMD would be bought, like ATI was by AMD. Worse case would be spin off's with ATI's talent going to a bigger company. Let's not forget that this is a company (AMD) that gobbled up ATI.

Will they last till 2020? Who knows, probably but let's not give credence to the side of our horrific capitalist market that derives great wealth from speculation, share degradation, appropriation and finally, financial whoring.

I fucking hate financial analysts and venture capitalists. It's like the people who invest (read: gamble) and then complain when the gamble doesn't work. Oh boo hoo! How I weep that you can't have a second Bentley now.

Bastards.
 

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I am pretty sure I have read that Samsung is looking to buy AMD, and go head to head with Intel and Nvidia.
 

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I voted borderline, meaning they will get to the point that is likely to happen, but no one is going to let that happen. Having competition is a must, and we as consumers need it.
same thought... same vote ... (not surprised though :D )
 
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If they fail with Zen and as Nvidia and Intel keep pushing the ARM and Graphics portions of their business I forsee that they would become a good buy for Samsung, or some other chipmaker with its own foundry just for their IP, and as stated prviously the graphics division is whats keeping them floating it seems, so even under a new name yet again or a year or two after I imagine the products and patents would continue elsewhere.

So I guess even if they do go bankrupt it will only be as a part of a restructuring move before they get snapped up by other companies, Apple would have a unique interest in them, even as that pains me to say it and may be a better parent company for them to operate under.
 

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Apple hasn't expressed any interest and why would they? They don't sell enough Macs to bother and they don't have any foundries to make AMD x86 competitive with the Intel x86 they are already using.
 
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I would say no because this happening would almost be impossible. Not impossible in the sense that they will have money or are about to make a ton, but in the regard that it would make a monopoly out of the competitors which would cause problems for them.

I think if it came to that, either someone would buy them or the others might assist at least to keep them in the game.
 
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If AMD fucks up Zen chip then they can close their doors next year, but oh no don't worry Intel will never monopolies the market.

Who gives a shit what a lazy ass good for nothing 'Analyst' says? The whole point of these little spouts of drivel is to knock market share price down a few notches to make it easier to buy in bulk stock. Every knock makes it easier to buy low so they can sell high when things turn around. AMD would be bought, like ATI was by AMD. Worse case would be spin off's with ATI's talent going to a bigger company. Let's not forget that this is a company (AMD) that gobbled up ATI.

Will they last till 2020? Who knows, probably but let's not give credence to the side of our horrific capitalist market that derives great wealth from speculation, share degradation, appropriation and finally, financial whoring.

I fucking hate financial analysts and venture capitalists. It's like the people who invest (read: gamble) and then complain when the gamble doesn't work. Oh boo hoo! How I weep that you can't have a second Bentley now.

Bastards.

clap.gif
 
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Honestly, it wont happen. They'll either get bought out, or even the thing a free market hates to see: Government intervention, simply because they play such a critical role.
 
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Honestly, it wont happen. They'll either get bought out, or even the thing a free market hates to see: Government intervention, simply because they play such a critical role.
The US government won't get involved. As far as the Free Trade Commission is concerned, Intel already has competition by way of ARM. There is no one, anywhere, under obligation to buyout AMD. AMD only has two things of value: x86/x86-64 cross license and Radeon. Are they valuable enough for any company to go through with the hassle of acquisition? I don't know.

It's possible that someone like Jeff Bezos or Ellon Musk could buy it out. Jeff Bezos has a knack for buying struggling American companies just because they're too important to die (e.g. Washington Post). It is also possible that some investment firm buys it out and sells off the individual components that are worth something. The US economy is good at recycling businesses so something will likely happen but, there is no assurance AMD will ever make another x86 CPU after it. It's not profitable and with Intel charging forward like it has been, it never will be profitable.
 

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There seems to be a disconnect between reality and lala land. Examine the financials. Let's deal with what is reality.
 
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They need to buy ARM type of company or get bought by Samsung making their microchips to tablets and cells.
 
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Apple hasn't expressed any interest and why would they? They don't sell enough Macs to bother and they don't have any foundries to make AMD x86 competitive with the Intel x86 they are already using.


Not foundries, but their GPU's are used in high end mac books, and if they offer a lower price in the box X86-64, with the possibility to add some proprietary tech for better performance it would lower their costs, and they have been trying/kinda hiring GPU designers.
 
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Audio Device(s) sennheiser HD58X
Power Supply Corsair SF600
Mouse MX master 3
Keyboard Master Key Mx
Software win 11 pro
I think zen will be vital for the company future. If it can compete with intel, someone might get interested to save the company. But if Intel manage to crush it without effort, i don't see who will dare to jump in a x86-64 bussiness, dominated by intel for a decade now...Apple buying ? well, they does seems to have skilled ppl in chip enginering, and are obssesive about custom design. but all they will do is making custom chip for their product, radeon would just vanish. Unlikely to happen,and it wouldn't be a good thing.
 
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