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ATI's next gen GPU in next half of 2010

Discussion in 'AMD / ATI' started by _33, Mar 30, 2010.

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  1. a_ump

    a_ump

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    isn't GF supposed to have 28nm in q4 of 2010 also? and since we've already seen 28nm wafers, one of which was said to contain GPU's, from them it could be possible that AMD's next gen comes from GF and not TSMC. i only hope it does come from GF. that'll only help out AMD. i kno they aren't going to technically get cheaper prices per wafer, but seeing as how they own 30%? of GF it is helping them instead of TSMC producing AMD's chips
  2. cadaveca

    cadaveca My name is Dave

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    GF producing graphics chips can go either way. ATI might end up very screwed if they put all thier eggs in one basket. It makes the most sense to use BOTH, and take advantage of the differences in fab processing according to the market. You simply spin out samples of all models from both, but the downside to this is that there is more chance for info leaks, although I do not see it being any greater than it is already.

    If they commit 100% to GF, and TSMC has a better process, they migth get stamped into the ground by nV, and lose a huge part of the market. That option is not acceptable in any way.

    It would make sense for a new product to launch in September, but truly, I feel this is far too fast for a new gen...the 5-series was released just last year, after all. So if there is a 6-series chip in the fall, expect it to be a refresh, and not anything new.

    This is where Southern Islands comes in. It also makes sense to try part of the new tech to come, if designs are ready, but when the market is in the position it is in right now, there's plenty of time for both nV and ATi to sit back and earn some cash. Meanwhile, the engineers at both are in crunch phase, finalizing refresh products. nV needs to recoup costs of Fermi, so the market is set for a while, it think.

    The lack of a "pre-announced" 1ghz ATI gpu, and it's replacement with 950mhz models, could say a couple of things too... First, maybe TSMC is still having yield issues, and the problem hasn't been fixed yet. Given the natural disaster in thier area, I'll say that this was uncontrollable, and most likely.

    At the same time, maybe they've given up on the refresh, and are pushing a new model forward, and don't want to overshadow this fictional chip, so will sit back, enjoy the cheaper pricing plan than nV, with performance to match, and they'll respin the new chips until it's perfect, with a March 2011 release.


    At this point I think anything is possible, and that all the options offered currently in rumour are possible, as there is more than one design team making gpus @ AMD proper. Whichever plan proves most profitable will be the one that wins out, in the end.
  3. Super XP

    Super XP

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    I sort of agree with you but ATI has been without a new GEN card built from the ground up for a long time now, at least 5 to 7 years now. They've been revamping the same old design ever since the R420 line. Through major enhancements came the R520, R600, R700 and finally Evergreen.
  4. cadaveca

    cadaveca My name is Dave

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    I hear ya on that one...but really...do we need MORE graphical power?

    5870 1GB is almost good for 2560x1600 and 4xAA in DX11. A clock bump makes it perfect @ 60FPS(sure, a couple of apps this is not the case).

    So why change what works already? There is LOTS to lose by changing things drastically, and DX11 has just come out. There's only so much more you can do...without DX12...
  5. Super XP

    Super XP

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    I see your point, though the same can be said about CPU's. Both AMD & Intel could have just kept on jacking up the clock speed higher and higher for the Athlon 64 / Pentium 4. Where would that have taken us?
    Thank goodness for Intel's Super Efficient Core i7 and AMD’s soon to come Bulldozer. My point is innovation and technology drives competition. Though one pet peeve I have is software, it’s always late in the game, and by the time it catches up we are into new hardware again.
    Not sure if the HD 6000 series is going to be based on DX12, but I assume AMD is going to stick with DX11, or at the very least support both DX11 and DX12, it makes sense, DX11 games are just starting to trickle down the pipe. We need to get to the point where all games are based on DX11. None of this DX10, DX10.1, DX9a, DX9b etc nonesense, they need to stick with one, perfect it then move on.

    By the way to answer your question, NO, graphics today is not fast enough for games today. I think 2GB should be the standard regardless what res people plan to play with.
    Crossfire and SLI also don’t improve as much as it should today. I am hoping AMD’s new tech is going to greatly improve CrossfireX performance, at least a lot more than Evergreen.:D
    JTS and phanbuey say thanks.
  6. a_ump

    a_ump

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    um yep i'd definitely cut dx12 out of the next gen haha. there's no purpose for it right now. and i don't feel 2gb is necessary, there are a few HD 5870 2gb's out with reviews that show like 3-5fps improvement over the 1gb version even at 2560x1600, so def not a necesity.
  7. phanbuey

    phanbuey

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    the multi card issue, and even the graphics power issues are all software based... I mean here you have a card that is capable of 2 tflops getting matched by a card that can do less than half of that - a couple hundred Gflops at most because of scheduling (among other things) and software. Basically... because of inefficiency.

    I think drivers - and the fact that we are not using anywhere NEAR the potential of these cards also come into play. Its like having a machine running at 60% efficiency and then saying you need a faster machine. Yeah, sure, that will do the trick no doubt, but I think it makes sense to increase software efficiency first. We need DX11 and DX12 to be more efficient, and to some extent DX11 does that. Totally agree with the whole "we need just DX11 and not 10 / 10.1 / 9abc ..." :toast:
    cadaveca says thanks.
  8. cadaveca

    cadaveca My name is Dave

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    Absolutely. I'm talking about a holding pattern for 6 months, not an eternity. If they release new tech too soon, they'll have old product sitting on shelves...product that could hurt alot of sellers. Given current supply constraints...maybe they could pull it off, but they still have 4-series cards to get through, so it's a very delicate balance they must pull off if they release new product that completely changes things.

    Yes, but Moore's Law exists for a reason. You want them to exceed that by a year? While that may sound great, that's not a good idea, long-term. Business is all aobut biggest returns for the smallest investment...and the investment on the 5-series is still paying hand over fist...nV hasn't even got product out in full force yet, and they don't have a top-to-bottom lineup yet either...

    In March next year they should be fabbing the new gen, the one you are looking for.

    This is exactly what I'm saying...

    I agree on the 2GB thing, but I tell ya what...programmers aren't to keen to change things like that just yet. There's just no real motivation, that I see, and where there is motivation, it's either an indie house, or in a place so big that the exec snuff it out quickly. We need a new gen of consoles before something like that becomes worthwhile.

    phan covered the rest I wanted to say...except for 1GB+ cards, and multi-gpu set-ups, we need sideport to return. We need new Crossfire interfaces too. Having 6GB of ram...and three gpus...is like having a 3-cpu socket system...without QPI or HT.

    Until they can do that, I think software is going to be a big barrier to multi-gpu scaling. Crossfire needs to be hardware-based 2000%, and not software, and now Win7 makes that really possible, as far as I am concerned, and there's even hardware out there that could make it possible.




    Remember that the original chip that became cypress was MUCH larger. They can pull this chip out at any time, and stomp on Fermi, if that's all they wanted to do.

    But innovation not only needs competition...it needs funding.

    Mind you, I'm probably the only one that thinks ATI took over AMD, not AMD bought ATI. ATi guys run the ship now, and now hold the all important x86 liscence. Couldn't happen any other way. Mr Huang must be fuming. Ati got what he never will.:laugh:
  9. Super XP

    Super XP

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    I totally agree. Software needs to get better. I still think 1GB at the very least is great for graphics. 2GB IMO is better perhaps not just for gaming but for other things like video encoding and stuff.

    Both ATI and NVIDIA need to do somehow join :eek: forces and try to convince game developers to utilize GPU's a lot better so we don't have to spend $1000 on graphics just to play Crysis as it was meant to be played.

    HD 5000 series have been out for about 7 months now, I believe ATI already made good profit on them, but I do agree they shouldn’t release anything new too soon but at the same time ATI needs to keep pressure on NVIDIA by staying in the lead, something they’ve not had for a long time now.
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2010
  10. cadaveca

    cadaveca My name is Dave

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    Who says they aren't leading?:wtf:

    Oh, in performance, not with product line-ups! Silly me!:laugh:


    :nutkick:

    If ATi's products perform slightly less, as they do now, but price/performance ratio stays better than nV's, ATi wins.

    In the real world..not us, but big business purchases...Fermi is a failure. ATi provides the same performance, and uses less power to do so.

    Now, of course, nVidia has the software edge, so this may completely eliminate ATi from this market...and all of a sudden, Mr Huang's focus on GPGPU suddenly makes sense...

    Remember, nV's focus isn't us, but GPGPU, with these chips. Those that buy 'em will pay extra in power bills, but they'll get that money back in software. And before Ati can get software, nV will fix the power issues, or release a new chip. No wonder Ati likes open platforms...it's all they can offer!


    So, ATi needs some programmers, and BADLY. They need some cash too.


    So hold those horses back a bit yet...just what do you expect ATi to deliver in this new gen? What exactly is it you need that they might provide? 'Cause you know...they just might listen...


    :D
  11. Flanker

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    i thought normally the highest end cards get released first then followed by crippled mid end of low end versions?
  12. Super XP

    Super XP

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    I highly agree ATI needs programmer’s bad big time. Though have a feeling ATI is in better position today than they were before AMD bought them. It would make sense for ATI to have a full capable GPGPU for its HD 6800 series, or they can always separate the two, one for strictly gaming and another for GPGPU. Just like the All in Wonder line. Though I think open standards make a lot better sense IMO, and hope it catches on.
    Well looking as some past releases, ATI always released low to mid cards on new manufacturing processes just to test the waters such as in this case it would be the new 28nm process.

    It’s much easier and cheaper to test and possibly screw up a low to mid card rather a monstrous high end card. Then after they’ve tested the water and somewhat learned more about say 28nm, they get the high end babies out the door.

    Like if I am not mistaken, they released some HD 3700's or HD 3600's on new manu. process then later on released it on high end HD 4870's or something.
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2010
  13. nt300

    nt300

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    So what no Southern Islands now? :wtf:
  14. a_ump

    a_ump

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    no body honestly knows. from what i've read, southern islands will include features that'll be in Northern Islands but keep the Evergreen shader architecture. Then northern islands will come next with the same or more features of Southern Islands paired with a new shader architecture.

    But again in all honesty no one can say yay or nay to whether Southern Islands will release or not.
  15. Super XP

    Super XP

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    I was doing more digging but didn't find anything that we didn't know. AMD's CEO did talk about a graphics re-fresh, maybe this Southern Island is the re-fresh he speaks about.
    We will have to just wait and see. NI for Q1 2011 and SI for Q3-Q4 2010 :D
  16. mastrdrver

    mastrdrver

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    SI is coming since AMD's CEO mentioned it in a financial conference call. Bad things can happen to him and the company if they don't deliver. Also, since bulk 28nm at TSMC isn't happening until late 2H 2011, we won't see NI until then since it will be on 28nm and not 40nm. Apparently, they need the smaller process to keep it under 400m2 which SI is already going to be pushing on 40nm.

    So the rumor goes like this

    SI: 2H 2010, same shader count as Evergreen but with updated front end, rops, and maybe memory type.
    NI: Updated shaders which are suppose to do away with the 5 wide shaders. Includes SI minus shaders with maybe some tweaking.

    Some of you guys are really getting out in left field. SI/NI will not go to GF since not only is their 28nm later than TSMC, but a totally different way of doing it. AMD would need to start over from scratch and learn a new process. If you thought Fermi was late, this would make that look like child's play.
  17. entropy13

    entropy13

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    Check my prior post in this thread, if we're assuming that what xbitlabs report is fact, then it will be a hybrid of sorts for AMD, 32nm initially spread out in both GF and TSMC, then 28nm afterwards, IN BOTH as well.

    They're using the 32nm as a stepping stone of sorts and not exactly a "true progression" so to speak. I would think they're saying is that instead of sticking with TSMC with a problematic 32nm, why not spread it so to speak to GF too (with admittedly a problematic 32nm as well) so the yields would not be as bad.

    This way they could:
    -"Test the waters" with a 1) smaller process and 2) new architecture
    -"Spreading it out" with both TSMC and GF to offset yield problems

    Once they've accomplished that, we can expect next year a FULL lineup of 28nm cards. The 32nm serves as preparation for them. Think of it as the "4770 way", except bigger, and even the process (32nm) is only a "stepping stone" rather than the goal itself. Of course that's assuming that the problems get solved by that time.
  18. Super XP

    Super XP

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    TSMC and AMD are not going to be late, 28nm is on schedule for full production starting in Q4 2010. AMD and TSMC scrapped 32nm a while ago. Only Intel is using there version of 32nm for some chipsets and CPU's.

    So looking at the latest information, Southern Islands is either ATI's HD 5800 re-fresh or it does not exist. And that re-fresh is based on 40nm process which makes sense because AMD is very familiar with 40nm.
    Nothern Islands is on schedule for Q1 2011 which is based on a brand new design based on 28nm process.

  19. cadaveca

    cadaveca My name is Dave

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    Your TSMC info was before the earthquake in early March. Schedules have changed due to this.
  20. Super XP

    Super XP

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    Dam Earthquakes, I am really getting pissed about HAARP lately ;)

    Just in case nobody is aware of what HAARP is:
  21. eidairaman1

    eidairaman1

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    Any links to that news as that is over my head even. and I work for the Mil.
  22. Super XP

    Super XP

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    Last edited: Apr 11, 2010
  23. eidairaman1

    eidairaman1

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    sounds like speculation to me, also Nothing is true until the Military makes a statement about it.
  24. cadaveca

    cadaveca My name is Dave

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    They have admitted to using harp to push the ozone layer? troposhpere?...I cannot remember..anyway, pushed out 1.5 miles, or something. Cool stuff...

    totally off topic, but in a thread like this, built on speculation...
  25. a_ump

    a_ump

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    Ok i just googled a bunch about HAARP, and DESTINI in "The Core" isn't HAARP. DESTINI fired electro-magnectic pulses of god knows how much power into the earths core, HAARP shoots extremely strong(3.6billion watts) radio frequencies into our ionosphere(above the atmosphere) and is going to be used to study it. there are a lot of conspiracy theories but no facts behind them. the earthquakes, power outages, ability to deflect missiles, even mind control. all bullshit as of right now.

    OT: 32nm as stated, was scrapped for GPU's. 28nm is on schedule as was stated also. i do believe SI will release and is legit for Q3, probly Q4 of this year. NI not till next year sometime and i believe it'll depend on how nvidia reacts to SI on when it releases.
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2010

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