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New Algorithm Can Predict When a Driver Will Run a Red Light

Discussion in 'Science & Technology' started by micropage7, Dec 1, 2011.

  1. micropage7

    micropage7

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    The next car you buy might be
    able to tell you when another
    driver is going to run a red light,
    saving you thousands of dollars
    in repairs and quite possibly
    saving your life. Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of
    Technology (MIT) have
    developed an algorithm that
    determines which drivers will
    run a red light, within one to
    two seconds before a potential collision. According MIT News, the team tracked more than 15,000 cars at
    a busy intersection in
    Christianburg, Va. Using various
    instruments, researchers
    monitored factors like the
    vehicle's deceleration and distance from the light when it
    turned red to determine which
    cars were likely to jump the gun
    and which ones would wait for
    the light to change. They found that their predictions
    were correct about 85 percent of
    the time, a rate of success about
    15-20 percent better than
    existing traffic prediction
    algorithms. Researchers said they foresee
    the technology deployed in
    "smart cars" of the future. "If you had some type of heads-
    up display for the driver, it
    might be something where the
    algorithms are analyzing and
    saying, 'We're concerned,'" said
    Jonathan How, one of the researchers and a professor of
    aeronautics and astronautics at
    MIT. "Even though your light
    might be green, it may
    recommend you not to go,
    because there are people behaving badly that you may
    not be aware of."
    www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,23971.../pcmag/breakingnews+(PCMag.com+Breaking+News)
    .
    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2011
  2. DanishDevil

    DanishDevil

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    Fixed.

    The next car you buy might be able to tell you when another driver is going to run a red light, saving you thousands of dollars in repairs and quite possibly saving your life. Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have developed an algorithm that determines which drivers will run a red light, within one to two seconds before a potential collision.

    According MIT News, the team tracked more than 15,000 cars at a busy intersection in Christianburg, Va. Using various instruments, researchers monitored factors like the vehicle's deceleration and distance from the light when it turned red to determine which cars were likely to jump the gun and which ones would wait for the light to change. They found that their predictions were correct about 85 percent of the time, a rate of success about 15-20 percent better than existing traffic prediction algorithms. Researchers said they foresee the technology deployed in "smart cars" of the future.

    "If you had some type of heads-up display for the driver, it might be something where the algorithms are analyzing and saying, 'We're concerned,'" said Jonathan How, one of the researchers and a professor of aeronautics and astronautics at MIT. "Even though your light might be green, it may recommend you not to go, because there are people behaving badly that you may not be aware of."

    www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,23971.../pcmag/breakingnews+(PCMag.com+Breaking+News)

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Kreij

    Kreij Senior Monkey Moderator Staff Member

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    Crap deleted. Let's stick to the content of the post.

    Unless they've solved chaos theory with 100% accuracy, I think I will stick with my own intuition and judgement while driving and not depend on a computer in my vehicle to do it.
     
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  4. 3volvedcombat

    3volvedcombat New Member

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    Great research, but like DD's post,

    There might be people behaving weird on the road

    it might have been luck, but everybody takes account the deceleration of a car if its going to stop or run it.

    I do when i'm on the road, and for extra caution, sometimes people slow down quite a bit and try to run otherwise @ half speed by putting the pedal to the ground


    THEN THERE IS GRAND THEFT AUTO 4
     
  5. Inceptor

    Inceptor

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    I'm not a programmer or a mathematician, but:
    A bunch of code that's running a statistical analysis with some 'AI' algorithms spliced in is not going to predict human behaviour 'properly'. At best, it can provide an analysis of that particular intersection that was examined -- mainly due to the fact that many of the cars driving through it went through it more than once, since drivers tend to take the same road routes when driving to repeat destinations. So, it's predicting the behaviour of the subset of drivers who travel through that intersection regularly, with the addition of the statistical anomalies of new unique drivers.
    Short version: It hasn't predicted anything that can be applied, reliably, to all drivers, everywhere.

    Can't be done safely without true AI; the algorithm needs to be able to handle 'p and not-p', like us... and there is no code that can do that.
     
  6. Completely Bonkers New Member

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    So, let me get this. A computer simulation. Or a radar tracking system in your car that can see round corners of buildings. Someone's college thesis got to much PR in my opinion.
     
  7. Drone

    Drone

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    I doubt it'll ever work. The amount of stupid cars and stupid "drivers" is increasing exponentially.

    We don't need smart cars. Gosh, we need smart drivers :rolleyes:


    It'd be better if there was an algorithm that could predict red road rage or it could say

    "idiot is approaching": your actions a) evade b) dodge c) levitate
     
  8. DanishDevil

    DanishDevil

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    d) fire missiles
     
  9. micropage7

    micropage7

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    technology at certain level wont help us, sometimes it makes us get lazy and its kinda ironic where your safety just rely on the technology
     
  10. 1Kurgan1

    1Kurgan1 The Knife in your Back

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    Don't see this as going anywhere. It's a great idea, don't get me wrong, but I watch cross traffic lights, and time my take off, I am usually rolling across the crosswalk (if no one is crossing) as the light in changing green, I would bet that would trigger off these things. 15 - 20% error is pretty large, I'm sure it can get better, but even 1 - 2% is too much, the city I am in has 80,000 people, if even 40,000 (people come here to work) drive and stop at only 1 stop light/sign 1% error would mean 400 errors, and thats only each car stopping at one intersection. And these kind of false errors could easily cause people to slam on the brakes then get rear ended, as people will use this kind of technology to be even less attentive while driving and when that thing goes off they will just panic.

    I just feel something like this would have to be 100% accurate to be feasible, and nothing is ever 100%.
     
  11. bostonbuddy New Member

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    Most people will still want to drive their own cars, maybe on 6+ hour drives hand it off for a couple hours to the computer, but for the elderly and disabled self driving cars are huge.
     
  12. twilyth Guest

    If I had this in my car it told me to wait, I would look around to if I'd missed anything. If not, I'd go. That would take me all of 2 seconds and I'm an old fart.
     
  13. NC37

    NC37

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    Bet someone at MIT just wanted a free trip to VA for whatever bizarre reason. If you want to study traffic and red light running, you start in Los Angeles.
     
  14. scaminatrix

    scaminatrix

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    Oh oh ohhhhh I see now. It's not that they are "predicting" the possibility of a crash from chance, it's being worked out by plotting the speed of cars around and seeing if they're going to run a light.

    And I thought they were predicting it from chance :laugh:
     

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