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Global Warming & Climate Change Discussion

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I'm sure it's been said already but i can't read posts in this thread - it infuriates me.

Even if it's not getting as hot as predicted - the oceans are.

I think it is pretty reasonable to say that given accuracy of measuring the ocean's temperature in 1880 that 0.5 degrees is within the realm of error. i mean, alien tech was still pretty good back then.
 
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I think it is pretty reasonable to say that given accuracy of measuring the ocean's temperature in 1880 that 0.5 degrees is within the realm of error. i mean, alien tech was still pretty good back then.
Apparently time started in 1880.
 
Apparently time started in 1880.

You didn't get the memo? So called climate scientists are worse than Young Earth Creationists!
 
Can anyone explain to me who was responsible for global warming prior to the industrial revolution? Did you aliens from another galaxy cause it?
It was the little green ones. Or was it the blue ones? I can't remember now, it was all such a long time ago, lol.
 
It was the little green ones. Or was it the blue ones? I can't remember now, it was all such a long time ago, lol.

Don't be racist!
 
Can somebody call somebody else a Nazi, or maybe something else?

That seems the fastest way to have a thread put out of its misery. I'll start. I'm a horrible Nazi. No, I am. No, I am. Screw you!


And so, I demonstrate sanity for wanting this thread put down, and insanity where I insult myself.
 
Can somebody call somebody else a Nazi, or maybe something else?

That seems the fastest way to have a thread put out of its misery. I'll start. I'm a horrible Nazi. No, I am. No, I am. Screw you!


And so, I demonstrate sanity for wanting this thread put down, and insanity where I insult myself.

I think the mods are trolling us by allowing this garbage heap of a thread to exist.
 
If you're going to live and die by terminology, then the title of the thread is:
The fiddling with temperature data is the biggest science scandal ever

The thread originally asks whether the alteration of temperatures, recorded at particular locations, being altered to normalize results to a theoretical model is important. That theoretical model has created allowances for increased average temperatures, and the harvested data did not support said theoretical model. Scientists chalked up said discrepancies as problematic, and to normalize data to their conclusions they altered temperature data to account for "imprecision" in the instrumentation. In the scientific world, that should get you crucified. You create a model, falsify data to match the model, and in the process justify a lie with data. That is unacceptable.

People have run with said banner, and taken it to both sides of the climate change debate. Deniers say this is a situation where all data should be thrown out, because of lies by some. Supporters say the significance of the data is negligible, given the weight of the other data. Reasonable moderates condemn the lie, and ask whether we actually have enough data to model anything.

There is actually already a hard answer for the question i had posted previously. If this study isn't trusted either there isn't much more than can be done as far as convincing.

On the reliability of the U.S. surface temperature record
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/v2/monthly/menne-etal2010.pdf

"Recent photographic documentation of poor siting conditions at stations in the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) has led to questions regarding the reliability of surface temperature trends over the conterminous United States (CONUS). To evaluate the potential impact of poor siting/instrument exposure on CONUS temperatures, trends derived from poor and well sited USHCN stations were compared. Results indicate that there is a mean bias associated with poor exposure sites relative to good exposure sites; however, this bias is consistent with previously documented changes associated with the widespread conversion to electronic sensors in the USHCN during the last 25 years. Moreover, the sign of the bias is counterintuitive to photographic documentation of poor exposure because associated instrument changes have led to an artificial negative (“cool”) bias in maximum temperatures and only a slight positive (“warm”) bias in minimum temperatures. These results underscore the need to consider all changes in observation practice when determining the impacts of siting irregularities. Further, the influence of nonstandard siting on temperature trends can only be quantified through an analysis of the data. Adjustments applied to USHCN Version 2 data largely account for the impact of instrument and siting changes, although a small overall residual negative (“cool”) bias appears to remain in the adjusted maximum temperature series. Nevertheless, the adjusted USHCN temperatures are extremely well aligned with recent measurements from instruments whose exposure characteristics meet the highest standards for climate monitoring. In summary, we find no evidence that the CONUS average temperature trends are inflated due to poor station siting."


On a separate note.

Citing surveys, like Magibeg did, is not bringing facts to the table. If you surveyed the average Saudi citizen they'd believe in Allah, the average resident of the US believes in the Bible, and the average resident of Lancaster PA would still use a horse as their common means of travel. Surveys, by their nature, aren't a way to gather facts. Facts exist outside the realm of opinion, and opinions are what surveys gather.

The citing surveys is from earlier arguments about the scientific support behind "man-made" global warming, but I understand it looks quite out of context.
 
There is actually already a hard answer for the question i had posted previously. If this study isn't trusted either there isn't much more than can be done as far as convincing.

On the reliability of the U.S. surface temperature record
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/v2/monthly/menne-etal2010.pdf

"Recent photographic documentation of poor siting conditions at stations in the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) has led to questions regarding the reliability of surface temperature trends over the conterminous United States (CONUS). To evaluate the potential impact of poor siting/instrument exposure on CONUS temperatures, trends derived from poor and well sited USHCN stations were compared. Results indicate that there is a mean bias associated with poor exposure sites relative to good exposure sites; however, this bias is consistent with previously documented changes associated with the widespread conversion to electronic sensors in the USHCN during the last 25 years. Moreover, the sign of the bias is counterintuitive to photographic documentation of poor exposure because associated instrument changes have led to an artificial negative (“cool”) bias in maximum temperatures and only a slight positive (“warm”) bias in minimum temperatures. These results underscore the need to consider all changes in observation practice when determining the impacts of siting irregularities. Further, the influence of nonstandard siting on temperature trends can only be quantified through an analysis of the data. Adjustments applied to USHCN Version 2 data largely account for the impact of instrument and siting changes, although a small overall residual negative (“cool”) bias appears to remain in the adjusted maximum temperature series. Nevertheless, the adjusted USHCN temperatures are extremely well aligned with recent measurements from instruments whose exposure characteristics meet the highest standards for climate monitoring. In summary, we find no evidence that the CONUS average temperature trends are inflated due to poor station siting."




The citing surveys is from earlier arguments about the scientific support behind "man-made" global warming, but I understand it looks quite out of context.

I appreciate your perspective, and you've done a good job offering facts. Facts that aren't related to the original discussion.

The original article, buried in link after link, did not base any assumptions on North American data corruption. If you'd bothered to read all the way back to the source data (unlike the article's author), you'd know it's about South American data tampering. Here's the link that started it all: https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wor...tampering-with-temperatures-in-south-america/



Through it all, people have been manipulated by a crappy grasp of facts, a tenuous grip on factual sources, and a political agenda intent upon being pushed. Whether you agree with it or not, the agenda is obfuscating fact and your citation of unrelated data is...I'm giving you the benefit of doubt and assuming ignorance. Please, just let this die. It's a propaganda piece, that only serves to label the author as either an idiot or an ideolog. No mater what our personal beliefs, this is just getting silly. Arguing unrelated facts only demonstrates we've driven the discussion into the ground, rubbed it in until it was only dust, and then kept going until the friction atomized the dust.



*conversation to myself, not an insult to anyone*
You sir, are a Nazi. No, I am. No, I am. Idiot! Jerk! I feel insulted. I've insulted myself.

For the love of all that is holy, please end this discussion.
 
No mater what our personal beliefs, this is just getting silly. Arguing unrelated facts only demonstrates we've driven the discussion into the ground, rubbed it in until it was only dust, and then kept going until the friction atomized the dust.
Allow me to edit your post

"No mater what our personal beliefs, this is just getting silly. Arguing unrelated facts only demonstrates we've driven the discussion into the ground, rubbed it in until it was only dust, and then we made it into a Hot Curry so hot that we puked up the Data and regurgtated it because it left a Bad Taste in our Mouth."

there that's better
images
:)
 
I'm glad to see @lilhasselhoffer bring some sanity to this discussion and bring it back to the whole point of the thread!

The thread was not about climate change or global warming or whatever we want to call it and whether or not it's happening. It's not about who is responsible.

The question was do you think it's a scandal for scientists who are believers in human causation to throw out the data from sensors which did not indicate any warming data? The fact that they did that is not in question. What is an issue is whether this is ethical, moral or any other kind of acceptable.

As @lilhasselhoffer pointed out, scientists in any other field would have been crucified for throwing out data that did not support their premise.
 
On the reliability of the U.S. surface temperature record
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/v2/monthly/menne-etal2010.pdf
Temp record is unreliable

"We found [U.S. weather] stations located next to the exhaust fans of air conditioning units, surrounded by asphalt parking lots and roads, on blistering-hot rooftops, and near sidewalks and buildings that absorb and radiate heat. We found 68 stations located at wastewater treatment plants, where the process of waste digestion causes temperatures to be higher than in surrounding areas.

In fact, we found that 89 percent of the stations – nearly 9 of every 10 – fail to meet the National Weather Service’s own siting requirements that stations must be 30 meters (about 100 feet) or more away from an artificial heating or radiating/reflectingheat source." (Watts 2009)
 
Its not up for debate!!!... This is an excellent example of why people are skeptical.
 
And, we're back to arguing whether climate change is a thing.

I need a drink.



Is global warming real? By definition no. Global warming is what people called it when average surface temperatures increased, but it doesn't account for severe weather.
Is climate change real? Demonstrably, yes. We're getting more, and more severe, storms that at any time in the recorded past.
Is a researcher altering data that big of a deal? Yes. They should be crucified. You F*** with science by lying, you don't get to do it any more. You're always welcome to be proven wrong, but lying is unacceptable.


Now, the biggie. Is climate change man made? This is what people are arguing over, and it has a slant toward politics. Bible thumpers say that man believing they altered God's creation is hubris. Hippies believe that nuclear power is killing everyone, and the corporations are polluting the world. Slightly less crazy people believe in a conspiracy of lizard men who are terraforming the planet into a new paradise for them. Compounding all of this, there is a viable scientific argument for both sides of the coin. If you can take one lie, and completely throw away all of the contradictory data, the opposition can do the same. By that low standard, all data is worthless. We haven't just lost data, we've spent millions, or at this point billions, on data that doesn't matter.

I'm just asking for reason here. I'm asking for science. I'll even concede to the biblical for theatrics. Scientists found lying get crucified, literally offering them eye-for-an-eye justice. They crippled humanity's ability to reason, so they get removed from the discussion.






Have I been crazy enough for both sides yet? Can we sit down to the freaking table, and talk?

I don't care whether you believe or don't believe in man made global climate change. If you somehow don't believe in climate change, you're a moron. Look out your windows, and you can see dramatic events happening. Time after time we hear about "storms of the century" happening, and the last time we heard it was less than a decade ago. Does it matter what caused it, when New Jersey and New York are buried in hurricanes? What about Europeans experiencing unusually dry summers that damage agriculture? Perhaps the encroaching deserts in China are an indication that something is changing? It doesn't matter if man caused climate change, we need to start reacting to it. Yeah, part of the solution is finding the source of the problem. The only issue with that is that the system may be too complex to find a singular source. Can we stop arguing if we're at fault, and just start tackling the issues.

I'm not opposed to arguing a contentious point, but jebus. Arguing who started a fire isn't exactly a useful pursuit as the house burns around you. You evacuate the house and put out the fire. Likewise, we're experiencing enormous natural events and instead of preparing for them we run around screaming post-facto. I'm close enough to South Carolina now to know what utter crap is going down there. In a country that many see as the wealthiest (though definitely not the most successful) we've got a third world nation within an 8 hour drive of the capital. Can we finally stop asking about the blame, and just strart preparing for the crap? Please?
 
Is climate change real? Demonstrably, yes. We're getting more, and more severe, storms that at any time in the recorded past.
The images on this link are dead but the message is still there:
http://www.wunderground.com/climate/extreme.asp
Reported tornadoes have gone up but that may be entirely unrelated to climate (e.g. the installation of Doppler RADAR); however, the severity of tornadoes not increasing.
Precipitation may be increasing but could easily be caused by pollution rather than climate. Vapor tends to condense around particulate matter and that's undeniably increased since the industrial age.

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes
"It is premature to conclude that human activities--and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming--have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity. " Even the most liberal models of precipitation change only estimates 15% more precipitation from storms.

I have huge doubts about these models because, for example, look at this year. Each tropical storm may bring more moisture but there really hasn't been many. In the aggregate, they still give a liberal estimate (based on models) of 10% at most.

Put bluntly, this particular alarmism hasn't panned out.


...we're experiencing enormous natural events and instead of preparing for them we run around screaming post-facto.
Because the same people arguing for global warming are also against implementing the most effective tools we have against it (like nuclear fission) and they're ignorant of agricultural techniques that vastly reduce atmospheric carbon. They prefer making a lot of noise and accusing carbon dioxide of virtually everything (forgetting they're exhaling it).


Can we finally stop asking about the blame, and just strart preparing for the crap?
You say this like hurricanes are new. They are not and that's a risk everyone that lives on the east and south coast take. Hurricanes will come and they will do damage. It's inevitable; the only question is when. The same can be said of earthquakes on the west coast and tornadoes in the Midwest.
 
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The images on this link are dead but the message is still there:
http://www.wunderground.com/climate/extreme.asp
Reported tornadoes have gone up but that may be entirely unrelated to climate (e.g. the installation of Doppler RADAR); however, the severity of tornadoes not increasing.
Precipitation may be increasing but could easily be caused by pollution rather than climate. Vapor tends to condense around particulate matter and that's undeniably increased since the industrial age.

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes
"It is premature to conclude that human activities--and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming--have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity. " Even the most liberal models of precipitation change only estimates 15% more precipitation from storms.

I have huge doubts about these models because, for example, look at this year. Each tropical storm may bring more moisture but there really hasn't been many. In the aggregate, they still give a liberal estimate (based on models) of 10% at most.

Put bluntly, this particular alarmism hasn't panned out.



Because the same people arguing for global warming are also against implementing the most effective tools we have against it (like nuclear fission) and they're ignorant of agricultural techniques that vastly reduce atmospheric carbon. They prefer making a lot of noise and accusing carbon dioxide of virtually everything (forgetting they're exhaling it).



You say this like hurricanes are new. They are not and that's a risk everyone that lives on the east and south coast take. Hurricanes will come and they will do damage. It's inevitable; the only question is when. The same can be said of earthquakes on the west coast and tornadoes in the Midwest.

There's a long answer to this, but for once I'll be brief. Tornadoes in the Midwest are a BS way to gauge climate. They're an excellent way to gauge local weather, but not a global indicator.

You haven't addressed desertification. You've yet to address why states that are hundreds of years old (New Jersey, South Carolina, Louisiana) have seen once in a century storms all in the last decade. Heck, precipitation is part of the measurement of climate, and you've even stated directly that that may be increasing.

People tend to forget that climate change doesn't have to be just warming or cooling. There's subsequently vast differences in interpretation of data. Let me be clear on why I've said what I've said.

1) Climate change includes swings in temperature beyond historical standards.
2) Climate change includes a sustained and measurable difference in temperature over a period of recorded time, given constant conditions.
3) Climate change is not some wonky tree hugger walking out into the forest and measuring temperature, then taking readings from an entirely different location, and claiming that because temperatures recorded rose there must be global warming.
4) Climate change by nature includes precipitation. Snow, rain, and hail all matter when considering weather. Whether it be the severity of a hurricane, or why crops continue to fail, precipitation is a huge component of our climate.



Before you label me an alarmist, let's fact check.
1) Pro nuclear power.
2) Against the EPA as it is. The organization is a club to beat businesses, not a scalpel to cut away diseased old businesses that pollute.
3) Completely against the endangered species act, as it has demonstrably benefited no animals.

Seems like I'm less alarmist, and more pragmatist, Utility, specifically that in saving human life, is a more chief concern than an agenda.
 
Ummmm...@lilhasselhoffer regarding the "non-help" of the endangered species act....how soon you forget about the enormous success of the American Alligator, nearly wiped out 4 decades ago, and now so plentiful in the wild from eastern Texas up to Arkansas, throughout all of Louisiana, Mississippi, South Alabama, Florida, coastal Georgia, the South Carolina LowCountry and coast, and coastal North Carolina that in nearly every one of those states there is a very generous hunting season now which doesn't even dent the population?

Or, the Bald Eagle, which now has multiple nesting mated pairs in every state except Hawaii (for obvious reasons, because it was never there), arising like a Phoenix from the ashes under its protection and the reduction/elimination of DDT which weakened eggs?

I'm also pro-nuclear, and againt the EPA as it is, and fairly against government involvement. But some things just work, like the Endangered Species act, and were the right thing to do.
 
Ummmm...@lilhasselhoffer regarding the "non-help" of the endangered species act....how soon you forget about the enormous success of the American Alligator, nearly wiped out 4 decades ago, and now so plentiful in the wild from eastern Texas up to Arkansas, throughout all of Louisiana, Mississippi, South Alabama, Florida, coastal Georgia, the South Carolina LowCountry and coast, and coastal North Carolina that in nearly every one of those states there is a very generous hunting season now which doesn't even dent the population?

Or, the Bald Eagle, which now has multiple nesting mated pairs in every state except Hawaii (for obvious reasons, because it was never there), arising like a Phoenix from the ashes under its protection and the reduction/elimination of DDT which weakened eggs?

I'm also pro-nuclear, and againt the EPA as it is, and fairly against government involvement. But some things just work, like the Endangered Species act, and were the right thing to do.

Bullshit and propoganda, to be crass and direct.


The bald eagle population was on the decline due to use of the pesticide DDT. Once we stopped using it, completely unrelated to the ESA, the bald eagle population began to recover. Ironically, this was a success for the EPA.

The American Alligator also did not benefit from the ESA listing them as endangered. A concerted effort by conservationists was responsible for their captive breeding programs, with releases back into the wild. If the ESA hadn't existed they still would have made a comeback, largely due to breeding by people who now slaughter them for food and leather. They are functionally the nastiest cows, or perhaps the scaliest pigs, that humans have decided to preserve. Again, the ESA didn't directly prevent their extinction, people searching for a profit did. Heck, the ESA could only have protected their natural habitat. Given the vast range of habitats they live in, you could call most of the areas you cited protected by that standard. This would mean the ESA could entirely prevent any new construction, their only real power. The Department of Natural Resources is responsible for hunting and captive breeding programs.

You forgot the whales. That's the other big stick people use. The whales, whose population was very poorly tracked until recently, stopped being hunted en mass in the late 1800's, but the ESA listed them. Whenever they delisted whales they called that a triumph, despite literally doing nothing to help them.

What about the various other species we are just finding? How do you square they with a listing of endangered species? What about all of the species delisted because of poor counting?


If you'd like this expounded on, Penn & Teller did an excellent episode of Bullshit on the topic. While they gloss over a lot of the facts (it's only half an hour long), it's all there. The ESA is crap, because it doesn't do anything but restrict development. Conservationalists, entirely independent of the ESA, are who save endangered species.



Edit:
Care for some numbers? I would.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...ndangered-species-act-percent-taken-off-list/

Of the species on the ESA 1.3% have been delisted. A greater number were removed due to poor counting, or being extinct before listing.

Your "successful" law is prohibiting land owners from developing property arbitrarily, encourage shoot-shovel-and-shutup, and it costs millions of dollar per year. I'd objectively call that a failure. I may despise the EPA, but even they show a better track record than the ESA.

Edit:
Minor mistakes corrected, and expounded on bald eagle.
 
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Except, conservationists did nothing to help the alligator until it was listed under ESA. They were just watching it disappear prior to that.
 
Except, conservationists did nothing to help the alligator until it was listed under ESA. They were just watching it disappear prior to that.

Factually incorrect.

http://earthjustice.org/sites/default/files/library/reports/Citizens_Guide_ESA.pdf

The conservation started in 1967, 5 years prior to the ESA as we know it. Read page 25 of the linked document (27 listed in the PDF, but 25 printed into the pamphlet). They claim that the ESA was the source of recovery, but state that the fish and wildlife service (a segment of the DNR) actually made the plan and executed the recovery effort. Prior to 1973 the ESA was a useless document, which basically outlined what a recovery plan was. If I can cite a source that would love for the ESA to be more encompassing, and prove my point, you know the law is crap.

Again, the ESA is claiming successes because it was in place when the recovery occurred. They didn't enact the recovery, but they were there to take the credit. Smell like bull s***, looks like bull s***, therefore it must be bull s***.



I'm not saying conservationalists deserve a back seat. Their efforts were and are monumental. What I'm saying is the ESA isn't a tool for them, it's a tool to control development. Again, that Bullshit episode from Penn & Teller put it into concise terms.



Edit:
Jebus, I've turned a climate change thread into an environmental protection debate. I'm sorry for getting off topic here. This has to stop, so whatever is said next on the topic, consider it the end for me. I started with a request to focus on the topic, and I've digressed. My apologies.
 
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You haven't addressed desertification. You've yet to address why states that are hundreds of years old (New Jersey, South Carolina, Louisiana) have seen once in a century storms all in the last decade. Heck, precipitation is part of the measurement of climate, and you've even stated directly that that may be increasing.
And you stated directly ("desertification") that precipitation may not be increasing, but displacing. Some places are getting wetter while other places are getting drier; however, distinguishing this effect from el nino and el nina isn't exactly plausible so, I stand by what I quoted from Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.
 
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