1. Welcome to TechPowerUp Forums, Guest! Please check out our forum guidelines for info related to our community.

Ultrabooks to Grow Over 30% in 2013, Becoming Key PC Market Indicator

Discussion in 'News' started by Cristian_25H, Oct 31, 2012.

  1. Cristian_25H

    Cristian_25H News Poster

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2011
    Messages:
    4,626 (4.17/day)
    Thanks Received:
    1,164
    Location:
    Still on the East Side
    According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, as the cost decline of ultrabook components like SSDs, displays, and cases becomes more apparent next year and Intel places more focus on developing processors for ultrabook use, ultrabook market size may exceed 30 million units in 2013, growing by more than 30% compared to this year and accounting for 17% of the notebook market.

    [​IMG]

    2012 has been the most challenging year PC vendors have seen in a while; with weak macroeconomic conditions and smartphones and tablets cannibalizing notebook demand, in addition to changing consumer attitudes regarding mobile device use, notebooks are no longer relied on as heavily as in the past. As Intel and other major manufacturers have lowered their shipment targets for 2012, TrendForce believes notebooks (including netbooks) will see negative growth for the first time in years, with total shipments forecast at 186 million units, a 4.6% YoY decrease. Ultrabooks also fell far short of expectation this year; TrendForce has adjusted the yearly ultrabook shipment forecast from 15 million down to 11 million, a mere 6.2% of the notebook market.

    From a product perspective, the MacBook Air, with exceptional design and backed by Apple's unique brand image and component purchasing advantage, encompasses more than 40% of the market. Limited by high component cost (metal case, thin display, SSD, etc.), other ultrabook manufacturers have been unable to bring cost and subsequently, retail price, down to the market sweet spot. Even if vendors change their strategy for the second half of the year and adopt hybrid storage solutions (24 GB or 32 GB SSD paired with at least 500 GB HDD) or use casing made of other materials to lower cost, the effect would be limited; ultrabooks still would not meet expectation this year.

    Looking at the ultrabook market forecast for 2013, TrendForce believes the effect of declining component cost will be more noticeable next year. Taking SSD, for example, after three quarters of yield rate improvement, volume production of 20 nm process SSD products will begin at the end of the first quarter of 2013. As yield rate continues to increase, SSD unit cost may see a 25-30% reduction next year, which would contribute significantly to lowering high-end ultrabook cost (most use 128 GB or 256 GB pure SSD). Additionally, the majority of PC makers have set ultrabook price around 699 USD; at this price, over 80% of ultrabooks will use a hybrid storage solution. The 15-20% cost savings would enable makers to set prices at 699 USD or lower, possibly to 599 USD. Furthermore, at the latest Intel Developer Forum, Intel introduced NGFF (Next Generation Form Factor), its new SSD standard. Currently, mSATA SSD comes in varying specifications and sizes; standardizing SSD modules would lower developing costs for manufacturers, and TrendForce expects this move will significantly benefit NAND flash demand. Furthermore, Intel's Haswell microarchitecture and Shark Bay platform will launch in the second quarter of 2013; with more products being developed that are suited to ultrabooks' efficiency needs, manufacturers will be able to produce even better ultrabooks.

    Thus, although TrendForce forecasts the notebook market will only see 1.3% growth next year, as netbooks will more or less be eliminated completely from the market and cannibalization from smartphones and tablets will continue, the majority of notebook market growth will come from ultrabooks. As key component cost and overall cost structure improves and new processors arrive next year, ultrabooks may see a rebound after the second quarter of 2013. Therefore, TrendForce expects the ultrabook market to break 30 million units in 2013, taking 17% of the notebook market.
     
  2. Yeoman

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2012
    Messages:
    33 (0.04/day)
    Thanks Received:
    4
    Is it just me who doesn't get ultra-books? I mean, as a general rule, I don't particularly understand this sort of race to make everything as light/thin as possible. I'm of a mind that you might as well get a laptop if you would bother carrying an ultrabook. Other than the weight, which could be about double, the sizes are about the same really.

    But between tablets and say 'full size' laptops, I don't really see the point? I know most processors are 'good enough' for most things now, but ultra-books seem a bit of a raw deal.
     
    hellrazor says thanks.
  3. Tarkhein

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2011
    Messages:
    49 (0.04/day)
    Thanks Received:
    13
    You do realise ultrabooks are laptops right? The reason for the race to thin/light is because tablets are cannibalising laptop sales and Intel don't make money from tablets. Let's look at the requirements to be called an ultrabook:
    1. Must contain an Intel Core processor
    2. Takes less than 7 seconds to wake from sleep
    3. Minimum 5 hours of battery life (web-browsing via wireless)
    4. Intel Identity Protection Technology
    5. Intel Anti-theft technology
    6. Wireless LAN
    7. Less than 1 inch thick
    8. High speed I/O (either USB3.0 or Thunderbolt)

    Notice how half the requirements are common to tablets, the rest are basically Intel add-ons.
     
    hellrazor says thanks.
  4. Fourstaff

    Fourstaff Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2009
    Messages:
    9,212 (4.99/day)
    Thanks Received:
    1,995
    Location:
    Home
    Size is also double. Also, powerbrick. And then battery life (most normal sized laptops can't beat Ultrabook's battery life, those that do costs as much as an ultrabook). Its for people who want to travel as light as they can while having x86 capability, eg. uni students, businessmen who spend time flying around, weak hipsters

    Once upon a time our handphones weigh more than a sack of potatoes, I can fit one in my pocket now. Same thing for laptops, ultrabook is just the next step in the evolution
     
  5. tacosRcool

    tacosRcool

    Joined:
    May 14, 2012
    Messages:
    861 (0.91/day)
    Thanks Received:
    71
    Maybe if they were cheaper...
     
  6. Fourstaff

    Fourstaff Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2009
    Messages:
    9,212 (4.99/day)
    Thanks Received:
    1,995
    Location:
    Home
    Give it a few years
     

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guest)

Share This Page