Which 5850 should I buy?

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I think going with reference is always better and stick on a UBER cooler(s). Although more and more companys seems to want to stop you from doing this now.

I only go with the reference because they duct the hot air to the outside of the case. The non-reference ones usually aren't sealed and dump the hot air they pull away from the chips into the case which raises the ambient temp, which raises the temp of the video card, which causes the fan to work harder, which dumps more hot air back into the case, etc, etc...