TrendForce projects a strong 13-18% increase in Q2 NAND Flash contract prices, with enterprise SSDs expected to rise highest. Despite Kioxia and WDC boosting their production capacity utilization rates from Q1 this year, other suppliers have kept their production strategies conservative. The slight dip in Q2 NAND Flash purchasing—compared to Q1—does not detract from the overall market's momentum, which continues to be influenced by decreasing supplier inventories and the impact of production cuts.

eMMC demand is predominantly driven by Chinese smartphone brands, leading to a substantial boost in shipments from Chinese module makers as some suppliers have reduced their supply. Buyers are increasingly adopting solutions from module makers to meet production needs, enhancing the technological advancement of Chinese module factories and their outreach to premier clients. This trend is likely to increase the penetration of eMMC products among smartphone customers, with a projected 10-15% rise in eMMC contract prices in Q2 due to a sharp rebound in NAND Flash wafer prices.

The third quarter of 2023 witnessed suppliers dramatically cutting production, which underpinned enterprise SSD prices. The fourth quarter saw a resurgence in contract prices, driven by robust buying activity and heightened demand from server brands and buoyed by optimistic capital expenditure forecasts for 2024. This, combined with increased demand from various end products entering their peak sales period and ongoing reductions in OEM NAND Flash inventories, resulted in some capacity shortages. Consequently, fourth-quarter enterprise SSD prices surged by over 15%. TrendForce highlights that this surge in demand and prices led to a 47.6% QoQ increase in enterprise SSD industry revenues in 4Q23, reaching approximately $23.1 billion.

The stage is set for continued fervor as we settle into the new year and momentum from server brand orders continues to heat up—particularly from Chinese clients. On the supply side, falling inventory levels and efforts to exit loss-making positions have prompted enterprise SSD prices to climb, with contract prices expected to increase by over 25%. This is anticipated to fuel a 20% revenue growth in Q1.

TrendForce reports a substantial 24.5% QoQ increase in NAND Flash industry revenue, hitting US$11.49 billion in 4Q23. This surge is attributed to a stabilization in end-demand spurred by year-end promotions, along with an expansion in component market orders driven by price chasing, leading to robust bit shipments compared to the same period last year. Additionally, the corporate sector's continued positive outlook for 2024 demand—compared to 2023—and strategic stockpiling have further fueled this growth.

Looking ahead to 1Q24, despite it traditionally being an off-season, the NAND Flash industry is expected to see a continued increase in revenue by another 20%. This anticipation is underpinned by significant improvements in supply chain inventory levels and ongoing price rises, with clients ramping up their orders to sidestep potential supply shortages and escalating costs. The ongoing expansion of order sizes is expected to drive NAND Flash contract prices up by an average of 25%.

Western Digital Corp. ("Western Digital" or "the Company") today provided an update on its previously announced plan to separate into two independent, publicly traded companies. On track for the second half of calendar year 2024, significant progress towards the completion of the separation is underway with key transactional projects including global legal entity establishment, customer and supplier contract transfers, final stage preparation for government filings, and initial executive leadership appointments for both HDD and Flash companies post-separation.

Announced on October 30, 2023, Western Digital plans to separate its HDD and Flash businesses, creating two independent, public companies with market-specific, strategic focus. The company's separation will better position each franchise to execute innovative technology and product development, capitalize on unique growth opportunities, extend respective market leadership positions, and operate more efficiently with distinct capital structures.

Cyberattacks are an existential risk, with 89% of organizations ranking ransomware as one of the top five threats to their viability, according to a November 2023 report from TechTarget's Enterprise Strategy Group, a leading analyst firm. And this is just one of many risks to corporate data—insider threats, data exfiltration, hardware failures, and natural disasters also pose significant danger. Moreover, as the just-released 2024 IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Index states, as the generative AI market becomes more established, it could trigger the maturity of AI as an attack surface, mobilizing even further investment in new tools from cybercriminals. The report notes that enterprises should also recognize that their existing underlying infrastructure is a gateway to their AI models that doesn't require novel tactics from attackers to target.

To help clients counter these threats with earlier and more accurate detection, we're announcing new AI-enhanced versions of the IBM FlashCore Module technology available inside new IBM Storage FlashSystem products and a new version of IBM Storage Defender software to help organizations improve their ability to detect and respond to ransomware and other cyberattacks that threaten their data. The newly available fourth generation of FlashCore Module (FCM) technology enables artificial intelligence capabilities within the IBM Storage FlashSystem family. FCM works with Storage Defender to provide end-to-end data resilience across primary and secondary workloads with AI-powered sensors designed for earlier notification of cyber threats to help enterprises recover faster.

Introducing the DataTraveler SE9 Gen 3 USB drive. Featuring a premium metal casing for durability and style paired with large capacity options, you can have form AND function. 🥇Experience the combination of elegance and functionality with the DataTraveler SE9 G3 USB 3.2 Gen 3 flash drive, ideal for storing and sharing your data. Rediscover its timeless, award-winning design, now enhanced with high-performance speeds of up to 220 MB/s read and 100 MB/s write, ensuring swift and seamless data transfers on Type-A host devices.

Explore the expanded storage options with robust capacities now reaching up to 512 GB, providing ample space for your movies, music and diverse file storage needs. Premium metal casing for durability and style—an all-metal gold casing that's portable enough to fit in your pocket, backpack or on your keyring loop.

More than mere modes of transportation, today's software-defined vehicles are a result of the ongoing transformation of the automobile from a product that is mainly hardware-based to a software-centric device on wheels. Premium vehicles today can have up to 150 million lines of software code, distributed among hundreds of electronic control units (ECUs), sensors, cameras, Lidar and more.

It is critical for automotive OEMs to ensure the quality and reliability of these software-intensive systems. Automotive SPICE (Software Process Improvement and Capability dEtermination) is an industry-standard guideline for evaluating the automotive embedded software development process. This ISO/IEC 15504 standard proves the software and development capabilities of automotive suppliers and manufacturers meet OEM requirements and incorporate best practices throughout the automotive software development cycle.

Solid State Disks Ltd. (SSDL), a leading manufacturer of solid-state-drives (SSDs) and a value-added reseller (VAR) of latest-technology Flash and DRAM solutions, has launched SCSIFlash-Fast, a swap-in upgrade/replacement for electromechanical hard disk drives (HDDs) that use the SCSI interface. Initially available with 68- and 80-pin connectors and write speeds of up to 80 MB/s, SCSIFlash-Fast uses proven SCSI drive architecture and industrial CFast or M.2 SSD memory (with storage capacities ranging from 2 GB to 1 TB). The drive features configurable hardware, allowing the OEMs of (or those responsible for maintaining) legacy systems to replace or upgrade obsolete HDDs that were made in the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s, and improve system reliability and security.

James Hilken, SSDL's Sales & Marketing Director, says: "There are several computer-based systems in use within aerospace, defense, manufacturing, medical, telecommunications and other sectors that were designed decades ago and were fitted with then state-of-the-art SCSI hard disk drives. With their moving parts, these long-obsolete drives are increasingly failing. Our SCSIFlash-Fast drive is a highly reliable swap-in replacement for virtually any SCSI hard disk drive that's more than 20 years old." SCSIFlash-Fast is configured to order and can replicate the exact behavior of the SCSI HDD it replaces, meaning no modifications need to be made to the host system; which in many cases must not be modified (i.e. its functionality has been certified) or it is simply not cost-effective to do so. With SSDL's SCSIFlash-Fast, the SCSI version is set to that of the host system (SASI, SCSI-1, SCSI-2 or Ultra3) and the disk sector size is set to 256, 512, 768, 1024, 2048 or 4096. Other configurations can also be applied, including the preloading of data.

Western Digital Corp. today reported fiscal second quarter 2024 financial results. "Western Digital's second quarter results demonstrate that the structural changes we have put in place over the last few years and the strategy we have been executing are producing significant outperformance across our flash and HDD businesses," said David Goeckeler, Western Digital CEO. "We are seeing our efforts come to fruition as our financial performance met, or exceeded, the non-GAAP guidance ranges we provided in October, and I am confident that our strategy of managing inventory proactively, offering a broad range of products, closely controlling our product cost through focused R&D and manufacturing, and bolstering the agility of our business will allow us to improve through-cycle profitability and dampen business cycles into the future."

• Second quarter revenue was $3.03 billion, up 10% sequentially (QoQ). Cloud revenue increased 23% (QoQ), Client revenue decreased 2% (QoQ) and Consumer revenue increased 15% (QoQ).
• Second quarter GAAP earnings per share (EPS) was $(0.87) and Non-GAAP EPS was $(0.69), which includes $156 million of underutilization-related charges in Flash and HDD.
• Expect fiscal third quarter 2024 revenue to be in the range of $3.20 billion to $3.40 billion.
• Expect Non-GAAP EPS in the range of $(0.10) to $0.20, which includes $30 to $40 million of underutilization-related charges in HDD.

The PC master race has yielded many interesting activities for enthusiasts alike, with perhaps the pinnacle of activities being overclocking. Usually, subjects for overclocking include CPUs, GPUs, and RAM, with other components not actually being capable of overclocking. However, the enthusiast force never seems to settle, and today, we have proof of overclocking an off-the-shelf 2.5-inch SATA III NAND Flash SSD thanks to Gabriel Ferraz, a Computer Engineering graduate, and TechPowerUp's SSD database maintainer. He uses the RZX Pro 256 GB SSD in the video, a generic NAND Flash drive. The RZX Pro uses the Silicon Motion SM2259XT2 single-core, 32-bit ARC CPU running up to 550 MHz. It has two channels at 400 MHz, each with eight chip enable interconnects, allowing up to 16 NAND Flash dies to operate. The SSD doesn't feature a DRAM cache or support a host memory buffer. It has only one NAND Flash memory chip from Kioxia, uses BiCS FLASH 4 architecture, has 96 layers, and has 256 GB capacity.

While this NAND Flash die is rated for up to 400 MHz or 800 MT/s, it only ran at less than half the speed at 193.75 MHz or 387.5 MT/s at default settings. Gabriel acquired a SATA III to USB 3.0 adapter with a JMS578 bridge chip to perform the overclock. This adapter allows hot swapping of SSDs without the need to turn off the PC. He shorted two terminals in the drive's PCB to get the SSD to operate without its default safe mode. Mass Production Tools (MPTools), which OEMs use to flash SSDs, were used to change the firmware settings. Each NAND Flash architecture has its own special version of MPTools. The software directly shows control of the Flash clock, CPU clock, and output driving. However, additional tweaks like Flash IO driving with subdivisions need modifications. Control and Flash On-Die Termination (ODT) and Schmitt window trigger (referring to the Schmitt trigger comparator circuit) also needed a few modifications to make it work.

TrendForce's latest analysis reveals that the downswing of DRAM contract prices, which had lasted for eight consecutive quarters since 4Q21, was finally reversed in 4Q23. Likewise, NAND Flash rebounded in 3Q23 after four quarters of decline. The persistence of this rally in memory prices during 2024 will largely hinge on suppliers' ongoing and effective control over their capacity utilization rates.

According to TrendForce Senior Research Vice President, Avril Wu, the first quarter of this year is already shaping up to be a season of growth, with TrendForce confirming its initial projections: a hike of around 13-18% QoQ for DRAM contract prices and a hike of 18-23% for NAND Flash contract prices. Despite a generally conservative outlook for overall market demand in 2Q24, suppliers in both DRAM and NAND Flash markets have begun raising their capacity utilization rates since the end of 4Q23. Furthermore, NAND Flash buyers are anticipated to complete their inventory restocking in advance in 1Q24. Due to the rise in capacity utilization rates and earlier restocking efforts, leading to a more moderated QoQ price increase of 3-8% for both DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices for 2Q24.

Apple has been experimenting with Large Language Models (LLMs) that power most of today's AI applications. The company wants these LLMs to serve the users best and deliver them efficiently, which is a difficult task as they require a lot of resources, including compute and memory. Traditionally, LLMs have required AI accelerators in combination with large DRAM capacity to store model weights. However, Apple has published a paper that aims to bring LLMs to devices with limited memory capacity. By storing LLMs on NAND flash memory (regular storage), the method involves constructing an inference cost model that harmonizes with the flash memory behavior, guiding optimization in two critical areas: reducing the volume of data transferred from flash and reading data in larger, more contiguous chunks. Instead of storing the model weights on DRAM, Apple wants to utilize flash memory to store weights and only pull them on-demand to DRAM once it is needed.

Two principal techniques are introduced within this flash memory-informed framework: "windowing" and "row-column bundling." These methods collectively enable running models up to twice the size of the available DRAM, with a 4-5x and 20-25x increase in inference speed compared to native loading approaches on CPU and GPU, respectively. Integrating sparsity awareness, context-adaptive loading, and a hardware-oriented design pave the way for practical inference of LLMs on devices with limited memory, such as SoCs with 8/16/32 GB of available DRAM. Especially with DRAM prices outweighing NAND Flash, setups such as smartphone configurations could easily store and inference LLMs with multi-billion parameters, even if the DRAM available isn't sufficient. For a more technical deep dive, read the paper on arXiv here.

Phison Electronics Corp., a global leader in NAND flash controller and storage solutions, today announced the company's predictions for 2024 trends in NAND flash infrastructure deployment. The company predicts that rapid proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies will continue apace, with PCIe 5.0-based infrastructure providing high-performance, sustainable support for AI workload consistency as adoption rapidly expands. PCIe 5.0 NAND flash solutions will be at the core of a well-balanced hardware ecosystem, with private AI deployments such as on-premise large language models (LLMs) driving significant growth in both everyday AI and the infrastructure required to support it.

"We are moving past initial excitement over AI toward wider everyday deployment of the technology. In these configurations, high-quality AI output must be achieved by infrastructure designed to be secure, while also being affordable. The organizations that leverage AI to boost productivity will be incredibly successful," said Sebastien Jean, CTO, Phison US. "Building on the widespread proliferation of AI applications, infrastructure providers will be responsible for making certain that AI models do not run up against the limitations of memory - and NAND flash will become central to how we configure data center architectures to support today's developing AI market while laying the foundation for success in our fast-evolving digital future."

TrendForce predicts a significant rise in mobile DRAM and NAND Flash (eMMC/UFS) prices for the first quarter of 2024, with an expected seasonal increase of 18-23%. This surge could be further amplified in a market dominated by a few major players or if brand clients resort to panic buying under pressure.

Observations for 1Q24 indicate steady production planning by Chinese smartphone OEMs. A clear rise in memory prices is driving buyers to actively increase their purchasing efforts as they aim to establish secure and competitively priced inventory levels.

TrendForce reports a pivotal shift in the NAND Flash market for 3Q23, primarily driven by Samsung's strategic decision to reduce production. Initially, the market was clouded by uncertainty regarding end-user demand and fears of a subdued peak season, prompting buyers to adopt a conservative approach with low inventory and slow procurement. However, as market leaders like Samsung implemented substantial production cuts, buyers' attitudes shifted toward a more aggressive procurement strategy in anticipation of a market supply decrease. This led to a stabilization and even an uptick in NAND Flash contract prices by quarter-end, driving a 3% QoQ increase in bit shipments and culminating in a total revenue of US$9.229 billion, marking an approximate 2.9% increase.

The story unfolds with Kioxia and Micron—the only two to witness a dip in revenue rankings this quarter—while Samsung maintained its robust performance. Despite sluggish demand in the server sector, Samsung's fortunes rebounded thanks to a boost in consumer electronics, especially with high-capacity products in PCs and smartphones. Samsung emerged from a trough in Q3, with strategic inventory replenishments fueling further strategic stocking, and a shift in operational focus toward maximizing profit. This led to a minor 1-3% decrease in shipped bits, but a 1-3% increase in ASP, stabilizing Q3 NAND Flash revenue at US$2.9 billion.

TrendForce has issued its latest findings, indicating that the global SSD market has rectified its supply and demand dynamics in 2022, following a resolution in the shortage of master control ICs that had hampered the market in 2021. Despite the normalization of supply, global SSD shipments witnessed a decline, with only 114 million units shipped in 2022—a 10.7% decrease from the prior year.

The top three SSD shipment leaders of 2022 were Kingston, ADATA, and Lexar, with Kingston and ADATA maintaining solid advantages and experiencing growth in market share over 2021. Lexar's growth was attributed to an aggressive push for revenue in anticipation of going public. Kimtigo, in 2022, made significant strides in expanding into industrial control and OEM markets, which in turn boosted its shipment volume and market share. Netac maintained its competitive edge in the SSD market alongside securing several government orders in the enterprise SSD sector, keeping its market share and ranking consistent with the previous year.

PNY announced today the newest addition to its Flash Drive assortment, the Elite-X Type-C USB 3.2 Gen 1 Flash Drives. Elite-X Type-C is small in size but big in performance and portability. Boasting up to 256 GB of storage, up to 200 MB/s read speeds and up to 100 MB/s write speeds, The Elite-X Type-C USB 3.2 Gen 1 Flash Drives allow users to quickly and easily transfer files, photos, videos, music and more. Whether you're a student or a CEO, the Elite-X Type-C ensures you'll always have access to important files and you'll never again miss capturing important content due to limited memory!

Meticulously Crafted Design
The slender design of Elite-X Type-C is tailored to fit Type-C ports without the need for an adapter. The carefully crafted, narrow housing was designed to allow the drive to be used alongside other ports, taking up minimal space and leaving ports accessible for other needs. The included sliding cover protects the Type-C connector when not in use to prevent your valuable data from damage or loss!

Western Digital Corp. (NASDAQ: WDC) ("Western Digital" or "the Company") today announced its Board of Directors has unanimously approved a plan to separate its HDD and Flash businesses. Creating two independent, public companies with market-specific, strategic focus, the company's separation will better position each franchise to execute innovative technology and product development, capitalize on unique growth opportunities, extend respective leadership positions, and operate more efficiently with distinct capital structures. The transaction also provides strategic optionality for both businesses. The separation is intended to be structured in a tax-free manner and is targeted for the second half of calendar year 2024.

"Our HDD and Flash businesses are both well positioned to capitalize on the data storage industry's significant market dynamics, and as separate companies, each will have the strategic focus and resources to pursue opportunities in their respective markets. Importantly, separating these franchises will unlock significant value for Western Digital shareholders, allowing them to participate in the upside of two industry leaders with distinct growth and investment profiles," said David Goeckeler, CEO, Western Digital. "We have already laid important groundwork by building market-leading portfolios and enhancing the operational efficiency of each business, including the creation of separate Flash and HDD product business units and separating operational capabilites over the past several years. Additionally, we now have strong product, operational, and financial leadership in place to execute this plan successfully. Each business is in a solid position to succeed on its own, and the actions we are announcing today will further enable each company to drive long-term success in the years to come."

During the China Chip Storage Future 2023 Storage Industry Trend Summit, Yingren Technology, widely recognized as InnoGrit outside of China, announced the initiation of mass production of its enterprise-level YR S900 PCIe 5.0 SSD controller. Marking a significant breakthrough, the YR S900 stands as China's first domestic PCIe 5.0 SSD controller. Operating on an open-source RISC-V architecture, the YR S900 is engineered to align with U.S. export restrictions, ensuring a seamless design and manufacturing process of the SSD controller. While Yingren Technology remains discreet about the specific process node to produce the YR S900, it's known that the controller embodies a versatile design, with compatibility extending to mainstream NAND from eminent manufacturers, and exhibits an impressive synergy with NAND from Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp (YMTC).

The YR S900 is a quad-channel controller, offering sequential read and write speeds peaking at 14 GB/s and 12 GB/s, respectively, and is equipped with InnoGrit's third-generation ECC engine to optimize 4K LDPC encoding and decoding. This collaboration with Kioxia's XL-Flash results in a low 4K random read latency of 10us, highlighting its potential to deliver higher data throughput, increased stability, and extended service life. The YR S900 encompasses a comprehensive feature set, including FDP, SR-IOV hardware virtualization, CMB, and a range of data encryption algorithms. While the mass production of the YR S900 underscores a monumental stride in SSD solutions within China, it remains to be seen whether adopting this new Chinese technology will enter markets beyond China.

KIOXIA America, Inc. today announced that it has donated a command set specification to the Linux Foundation vendor-neutral Software-Enabled FlashTM Project. Built to deliver on the promise of software-defined flash, Software-Enabled Flash technology gives storage developers control over their data placement, latency outcomes, and workload isolation requirements. Through its open API and SDKs, hyperscale environments may optimize their own flash protocols, such as flexible direct placement (FDP) or zoned namespace (ZNS), while accelerating adoption of new flash technologies. This unique combination of open source software and purpose-built hardware can help data centers maximize the value of flash memory. KIOXIA has developed working samples of hardware modules for hyperscalers, storage developers and application developers.

"We are delighted to provide command set specifications to the Software-Enabled Flash Project," said Eric Ries, senior vice president and general manager of the Memory and Storage Strategy Division for KIOXIA America, Inc. "This is an important step that allows the ecosystem to bring products to market, and enables customers to extract the maximum value from flash memory."

TrendForce's latest research paints a vivid picture: Q2 saw the NAND Flash market still grappling with lackluster demand and being significantly outpaced by supply. The ASP of NAND Flash also took a hit, tumbling 10-15%. Nevertheless, there was a silver lining as bit shipments grew by 19.9% QoQ from a low baseline in 1Q23. To sum up, the Q2 landscape of the NAND Flash sector witnessed a 7.4% QoQ growth in revenue, reaching US$9.338 billion.

From Q2, Samsung began reining in production with a further squeeze expected for the third quarter. With inventories set to thin out, price hikes loom on the horizon, possibly offering a remedy to the chronic supply-demand imbalance. Yet, a crowded supplier landscape in the NAND Flash sector means that many players, faced with hefty inventories, will likely continue aggressive sales into Q3. Forecasts suggests a deceleration in ASP decline for NAND Flash products in Q3 to 5-10%. Riding the stockpiling momentum for the high season, bit shipments are set to rise, propelling Q3 revenue growth past the 3% threshold.

ProGrade Digital, Inc., founded with a mission to provide the highest quality professional grade digital memory cards and workflow solutions, announces the 3rd generation of its CFexpress Type B Cobalt-class memory card in a new 1.3 TB capacity. This new generation features the same industry-leading quality of ProGrade current 2nd generation 325 GB and 650 GB capacity cards, but now leverages PCIe Gen 4 interconnect with NVMe 1.4c host controller interface. ProGrade Digital's 3rd generation CFexpress Cobalt cards are fully compliant with the just released CFexpress 4.0 specification, and provide read speeds of up to 3,400 MB/s, burst write speeds of up to 3,000 MB/s, and sustained write speeds of up to 2,800 MB/s - ideally suited for the highest-resolution cinema-grade video capture applications. As in past Cobalt-class memory card generations, the highest endurance and reliability memory technology is utilized - ensuring years of trouble-free, high-performance capture.

"The introduction of our 3rd generation CFexpress Cobalt card at the 1.3 TB capacity point provides the extra space and unparalleled performance needed for the very highest resolution video capture needs," said Wes Brewer, Founder and CEO of ProGrade Digital. "Our inclusion of PCIe Gen 4 controller technology, coupled with upcoming USB4 high-speed readers will allow offloading speeds 3x greater than previously possible, providing a dramatic reduction in workflow processing time."

Kingston Digital, Inc., the Flash memory affiliate of Kingston Technology Company, Inc., a world leader in memory products and technology solutions, launched today the Best-in-Class Kingston IronKey D500S, hardware-encrypted USB flash drive providing military-grade security for classified data in transit. The D500S is FIPS 140-3 Level 3 (Pending) certified with new enhancements from NIST requiring secure microprocessor upgrades for stronger security and attack protections for government and military use. The drive self-tests upon bootup and includes thermal and voltage protection to automatically shut down when certain threshold is reached. Waterproof{{Footnote.N47812}, dustproof, shock and vibration resistant to Military Standards, crush-resistant and epoxy-filled, D500S' rugged zinc casing protects internal components from penetration attacks.

The Multi-Password option with Complex or Passphrase mode allows users to take ownership over their data, making it easier to remember the password to unlock the stringent security. Admin can reset a User password and enable a One-Time Recovery password to restore access should User password be forgotten. Both Admin and User can set a session-based Read-Only mode to protect the drive from malware on untrusted systems, while Admin can also set a Global Read-Only mode until reset. To keep data from getting into the wrong hands, Admin can enter a Crypto-Erase password that will destroy the data and reset the drive to prevent unauthorized access in compromising situations.

Recently, the spot market for NAND Flash chips has seen a rise in active price inquiries for certain products, a movement driven by successful increases in wafer contract prices. TrendForce reports this uptick primarily stems from negotiations in late August between NAND Flash suppliers and key Chinese module makers. These discussions led to a new wafer contract that successfully boosted the price of 512 Gb wafers by approximately 10%.

Other suppliers have also raised prices for their comparable products, signaling a shift in supplier sentiment: they are now less inclined to finalize deals at lower prices. This change has contributed to a short-term surge in the wafer spot market. Nevertheless, whether this surge in procurement is supported by actual end-user demand remains uncertain, as these orders have arisen in reaction to adjustments in supply-side pricing.

TrendForce expects that memory suppliers will continue their strategy of scaling back production of both DRAM and NAND Flash in 2024, with the cutback being particularly pronounced in the financially struggling NAND Flash sector. Market demand visibility for consumer electronic is projected to remain uncertain in 1H24. Additionally, capital expenditure for general-purpose servers is expected to be weakened due to competition from AI servers. Considering the low baseline set in 2023 and the current low pricing for some memory products, TrendForce anticipates YoY bit demand growth rates for DRAM and NAND Flash to be 13% and 16%, respectively. Nonetheless, achieving effective inventory reduction and restoring supply-demand balance next year will largely hinge on suppliers' ability to exercise restraint in their production capacities. If managed effectively, this could open up an opportunity for a rebound in average memory prices.

PC: The annual growth rate for average DRAM capacity is projected at approximately 12.4%, driven mainly by Intel's new Meteor Lake CPUs coming into mass production in 2024. This platform's DDR5 and LPDDR5 exclusivity will likely make DDR5 the new mainstream, surpassing DDR4 in the latter half of 2024. The growth rate in PC client SSDs will not be as robust as that of PC DRAM, with just an estimated growth of 8-10%. As consumer behavior increasingly shifts toward cloud-based solutions, the demand for laptops with large storage capacities is decreasing. Even though 1 TB models are becoming more available, 512 GB remains the predominant storage option. Furthermore, memory suppliers are maintaining price stability by significantly reducing production. Should prices hit rock bottom and subsequently rebound, PC OEMs are expected to face elevated SSD costs. This, when combined with Windows increasing its licensing fees for storage capacities at and above 1 TB, is likely to put a damper on further growth in average storage capacities.