Monday, March 26th 2018

NVIDIA, AMD to Face Worsening Investment Outlook as Bitmain Preps to Launch Ethereum ASIC

Analyst firm Susquehanna has cut AMD and NVIDIA's share price targets on the wake of confirmed reports on Bitmain's upcoming Ethereum ASIC. There's been talks about such a product for months - and some actual silicon steering as well that might support it. Susquehanna, through analyst Christopher Rolland in a note to clients Monday, cited their travels in Asia as a source of information.

This has brought confirmations that "(...) Bitmain has already developed an ASIC [application-specific integrated circuit] for mining Ethereum, and is readying the supply chain for shipments in 2Q18." And it doesn't seem Bitmain is the only company eyeing the doors of yet another extremely lucrative ASIC mining market: "While Bitmain is likely to be the largest ASIC vendor (currently 70-80% of Bitcoin mining ASICs) and the first to market with this product, we have learned of at least three other companies working on Ethereum ASICs, all at various stages of development."
Rolland believes Bitmain's specialized chip offering for Ethereum will hurt demand for PC graphics cards - as well it should, since it stands as much a status quo breaker as Bitcoin mining ASIC were at the time of their introduction. Rolland further estimated that ethereum mining-related sales accounted for about 20% of AMD's sales and 10% of NVIDIA's revenue - strong numbers that if declining, would surely impact share value and company valuation. As a result, the analyst lowered his price target for AMD shares to $7.50 from $13, representing a 29% reduction from Friday's close. Forecast for NVIDIA shares was also reduced to $200 from $215, but NVIDIA didn't see a downgraded state - it remained at neutral - while AMD was downgraded from neutral to negative. The reasoning? "NVIDIA has a stronger and more durable gaming franchise which would help it work through this potential Ethereum-related unwind," he wrote. Source: Yahoo Finance
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70 Comments on NVIDIA, AMD to Face Worsening Investment Outlook as Bitmain Preps to Launch Ethereum ASIC

#26
MrGenius
@HopelesslyFaithful LMAO!!! At you...not with you BTW. Keep 'em comin' trollio. :roll:
Posted on Reply
#27
trparky
And just what the fuck is wrong with having some fun? Life is too short to not have a little fun once in awhile. If that fun is games, so be it.

I have been saving up money all the while paying bills for the last year and a half to build a new computer because my older system is showing its age and just when I thought I had enough this mining craze came about and now I've had to push it off for another six months. All because GPU prices shot through the fucking roof. And no, I actually work like an honest man.

You can't build a computer without a graphics card, something that I've not been able to buy for months now because of these insane prices.

Oh, and take your comments and shove them up your rear end. I don't want to hear them!
Posted on Reply
#28
Kursah
No need for insults, trolling or any drama here, let's keep this on topic.
Posted on Reply
#29
techy1
if this will be effective - difficulty will rise and ETH will be done for gpu mining - it will be unproffitable (just like bitcoin was - one still can mine bitcoin with single gpu or massive gpu farms if he chooses so - but noone is doing it since ASIC and never will again!). And the argument "well if so - then gpu miners will mine xyz coin or zyx coin next day" is true, but faulty - because if most of these existing gpu farms will quit ETH and start mine ZEC (still pays good) its difficulty will skyrocket - like multiple times. At the moment ZEC trading volume (aka - the need of being mined) is x60 less then ETH (ZEC is just an example I know someone will mention some multiple "xyz" coins as alternative - well guess what - their trading volume combined are probably even less than ZEC, not to mention ETH.
Posted on Reply
#30
Shihabyooo
trparky
Except you're contributing to greed which is what I consider to be one of the most destructive elements of humanity. We should be trying to evolve past greed, to become better than what we are but instead it seems that for every step forward we take two steps back.
Isn't that basically all consumerism? We -gamers- do also "contribute" to the "greed" of, say, EA.
Crypto is an inefficient mess, imo, but the philosophy behind it is, if anything, more fair and anti-greed than how the current fiat systems work.
Posted on Reply
#31
theoneandonlymrk
Shihabyooo
Isn't that basically all consumerism? We -gamers- do also "contribute" to the "greed" of, say, EA.
Crypto is an inefficient mess, imo, but the philosophy behind it is, if anything, more fair and anti-greed than how the current fiat systems work.
It's simpler than that.

Man dint get toy.

Man stomps feet.

Calls other man.
Posted on Reply
#32
Totally
the54thvoid
Yeah but Monero is about to release code that will stop Bitmain's ASIC's from mining that crypto. The ASIC's can be, and have in the past, been pushed out by simple code. These ASIC's are great for us GPU buyers but not so for the currency's they are designed to farm. If the crypto's designer does not want an ASIC to work, it's capable of stopping it.
Curious, Why would they not want asic to work?
Posted on Reply
#33
silkstone
Ideologically speaking, ASIC miners go against what crypto is meant to be all about, decentralization. While it will still be decentralized, it won't be as much as it was and the proceeds will be under greater control of the bigger fish/whales.

On the other hand, it is more efficient and reduces reliance on GPUs which is good very both for the enthusiast community and the environment.

On a personal note, I do have a few cards mining and I will not be 'butt-hurt' when it becomes unprofitable to mine. When I started, I knew that would be the eventuality and I have plans for my GPUs aside from mining.
Posted on Reply
#34
Tartaros
Totally
Curious, Why would they not want asic to work?
This machines only work for mining, is not like a gpu that still have sell value after using or can be used to do other tasks. Also it would raise the difficulty of mining exponentially, in the end the hardware market for mining would be reduced to those manufacturers who just do specific mining hardware so there a chance of oligopoly. It would be pretty much what the ram/nand industry is nowadays.
Posted on Reply
#35
TheGuruStud
So much salt for not investing when they could and can't afford a new GPU...
Posted on Reply
#36
domaru
trparky
About time! Bring on the cheap video cards!!!
The issue is that i.e. TSMC is now doing more chips for Bitmain than for nVidia (Pascal and Volta) therefore it might be that nVidia will not be able to get so many chips (due to FAB capacity problems) to meet the demand and the prices will remain high.
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#37
iO
Lets hope they learnt their lesson with Bitcoin and made an ASIC which isnt specific to ethash but more like a general purpose compute chips similar to a GPU. Capable of mining everything.

And killing off most GPU mining for good.
Posted on Reply
#39
dozenfury
I'm guessing most professional investors have already factored in the 10-20% temporary revenue boost from the gpu mining gold rush for AMD and NV. They aren't going to invest based on a short-term very fragile boost like that.

And with or without these ASIC miners reality is that the sales and production of cards already done in the past few months has driven difficulty through the roof. That combined with the coin price drops which are heavily related to the increased mining throughput and difficulty, and mining is barely 1/3 as profitable as it was. Two or three more months of difficulty increasing at the same rate (and maybe sooner than that) and it will be in the same situation as Bitcoin where only industrial-scale mining is profitable anymore. It would take a massive spike in gpu-mined coin values to overcome the difficulty increases since December. And everyday that doesn't happen while difficulty continues to climb only makes that comeback less likely.
Posted on Reply
#40
trparky
Shihabyooo
Isn't that basically all consumerism? We -gamers- do also "contribute" to the "greed" of, say, EA.
I don't buy games from game studios that I feel are taking advantage of gamers. For example... Loot boxes. I won't buy games with them in it, they are nothing more than a cash grab and one that we as gamers need to show that we won't be abused with.

There are many more companies that I have boycotted.
Posted on Reply
#41
Shihabyooo
iO
Lets hope they learnt their lesson with Bitcoin and made an ASIC which isnt specific to ethash but more like a general purpose compute chips similar to a GPU. Capable of mining everything.

And killing off most GPU mining for good.
If that was easy, we wouldn't have had the current Nvidia/AMD duopoly. In this sad and depressing real life, the old houses (plus those on the mobile front) own enough IPs on how to make such a chip run, to make reinventing its metaphorical wheel an exercise in futility.

trparky
I don't buy games from game studios that I feel are taking advantage of gamers. For example... Loot boxes. I won't buy games with them in it, they are nothing more than a cash grab and one that we as gamers need to show that we won't be abused with.

There are many more companies that I have boycotted.
Ok, you're a sensible consumer, good for you! But you and me both do not make up the gaming market, the thousands -if not millions- of gamers do, and they, collectively, have been filling the coffers of EA et al for ages now with little to no indications of stopping.

A person who plans, builds and maintains a mining farm is no more "greedy" than me when I queue sheets to be printed at the office, or you when you do whatever you do for a living. You provide a service that is demanded by someone that isn't deemed illegal or unethical, and you get paid for it.
Posted on Reply
#42
trparky
EA is the worst of them all, there's a reason why they have won the Consumerist Golden Poo Award in 2012 and 2013
Posted on Reply
#43
moproblems99
When I looked up the specs on this, it really isn't that impressive. If I recall, it does 200mh/s @ 800watts and it costs about $3000USD. I have 210mh/s @ 950watts and I am sitting in the $2000USD - $2500USD range. I also have the ability to add in another 120mh/s or so for expansion.

As for greed, humans are innately greedy. It is what we do. Always have, always will. You can call me greedy all you want because I mine but I donate thousands of dollars a year to causes supporting veterans, elderly, and animals. I participate in beach cleanups, mangrove and tree plantings. What do you do?
Posted on Reply
#44
RejZoR
silkstone
Ideologically speaking, ASIC miners go against what crypto is meant to be all about, decentralization. While it will still be decentralized, it won't be as much as it was and the proceeds will be under greater control of the bigger fish/whales.

On the other hand, it is more efficient and reduces reliance on GPUs which is good very both for the enthusiast community and the environment.

On a personal note, I do have a few cards mining and I will not be 'butt-hurt' when it becomes unprofitable to mine. When I started, I knew that would be the eventuality and I have plans for my GPUs aside from mining.
If it was REALLY about decentralization everyone would be using as efficient clients as possible which are the fastest and consume the least power. ASIC's are exactly that. Just like we don't use CPU's to render graphics anymore, GPU's are ASIC's for graphics. They do it in the most efficient possible way. So, that logic is quite flawed seeing how miners are butthurt over ASIC units for mining.
Posted on Reply
#45
lexluthermiester
trparky
About time! Bring on the cheap video cards!!!
As has been said elsewhere, they're already dropping due to other reasons, but this will likely return the market to normal.
RejZoR
You can only throw ASIC's in the bin once they are past their usable timeframe.
Not true. The are many ways to utilize block-chain application other than mining. Repurposing an ASIC after it has lost mining profitability is a feasible scenario.
Posted on Reply
#46
Totally
silkstone
Ideologically speaking, ASIC miners go against what crypto is meant to be all about, decentralization. While it will still be decentralized, it won't be as much as it was and the proceeds will be under greater control of the bigger fish/whales.

On the other hand, it is more efficient and reduces reliance on GPUs which is good very both for the enthusiast community and the environment.

On a personal note, I do have a few cards mining and I will not be 'butt-hurt' when it becomes unprofitable to mine. When I started, I knew that would be the eventuality and I have plans for my GPUs aside from mining.
Isn't already mining already under the thumb of whales? Didn't the creators of cryto speak out against the way things are saying this is not what thiey intended?

Tartaros
This machines only work for mining, is not like a gpu that still have sell value after using or can be used to do other tasks. Also it would raise the difficulty of mining exponentially, in the end the hardware market for mining would be reduced to those manufacturers who just do specific mining hardware so there a chance of oligopoly. It would be pretty much what the ram/nand industry is nowadays.
Still don't see it, in my eyes only diff is the hardware miners are using. If thing are going to devolve into that situation it is going to regardless. Reselling a gpu after it has been run into the ground is as unethical as rolling back a car's odometer since gpu don't have a usage statistic that buyer can see before a purchase and no miner isn't go to go "hey y'all have a gpu here for sale owned it for 4 months and it has spent the entire time in my garage running at 100%. Only selling because 2 of the 8 that I purchased have did so I'm sure the others are also on their way out. Yep, that right I have 5 others ready for a quick sale, will work out a deal if anyone wants to buy multiple cards."
Posted on Reply
#47
Diverge
RejZoR
If it was REALLY about decentralization everyone would be using as efficient clients as possible which are the fastest and consume the least power. ASIC's are exactly that. Just like we don't use CPU's to render graphics anymore, GPU's are ASIC's for graphics. They do it in the most efficient possible way. So, that logic is quite flawed seeing how miners are butthurt over ASIC units for mining.
Because the idea is that crypto should be minable with readily available hardware that everyone has access to (videocards). The companies that create ASICs for mining use them for themselves initially, to get all the gains. Then sell them off. They aren't available to the masses, and usually not worth it by the time the normal commoner has access to them. This is why algorithms are created to be resistant to ASICs.
Posted on Reply
#48
Vayra86
moproblems99
When I looked up the specs on this, it really isn't that impressive. If I recall, it does 200mh/s @ 800watts and it costs about $3000USD. I have 210mh/s @ 950watts and I am sitting in the $2000USD - $2500USD range. I also have the ability to add in another 120mh/s or so for expansion.

As for greed, humans are innately greedy. It is what we do. Always have, always will. You can call me greedy all you want because I mine but I donate thousands of dollars a year to causes supporting veterans, elderly, and animals. I participate in beach cleanups, mangrove and tree plantings. What do you do?
The 'hate' on miners is misplaced, I fully agree with you; it is indeed just greed and it always has been.

For me personally, my beef is more with how we humans facilitate that greed and the immense waste that comes with it. Bitcoin is one of the greatest examples thus far.
Posted on Reply
#49
D.Crepit
TPU Article

Yes, ASICs can be circumvented by coders.
Don't think that can happen with the above ACAP
chips.

There is nothing wrong with using GPUs to do crypto,
but there is also no stopping someone using an
ACAP from coding it to do literally ANY crypto operation.
Posted on Reply
#50
Casecutter
lexluthermiester
As has been said elsewhere, they're already dropping due to other reasons, but this will likely return the market to normal.
To that point, prices are at Newegg at least for the RX 580 8Gb are "relaxing" slightly as of late, and see more of those SKU's shown as available to order. We probably won't see retail pricing drop to normal (for RX 580 8Gb say $220-250) until there's an exodus sell-off wave hitting Ebay. Right now average is $330 on up, but that's been fairly steady for Pre-owned for a while now.
Posted on Reply
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