Monday, March 26th 2018

NVIDIA, AMD to Face Worsening Investment Outlook as Bitmain Preps to Launch Ethereum ASIC

Analyst firm Susquehanna has cut AMD and NVIDIA's share price targets on the wake of confirmed reports on Bitmain's upcoming Ethereum ASIC. There's been talks about such a product for months - and some actual silicon steering as well that might support it. Susquehanna, through analyst Christopher Rolland in a note to clients Monday, cited their travels in Asia as a source of information.

This has brought confirmations that "(...) Bitmain has already developed an ASIC [application-specific integrated circuit] for mining Ethereum, and is readying the supply chain for shipments in 2Q18." And it doesn't seem Bitmain is the only company eyeing the doors of yet another extremely lucrative ASIC mining market: "While Bitmain is likely to be the largest ASIC vendor (currently 70-80% of Bitcoin mining ASICs) and the first to market with this product, we have learned of at least three other companies working on Ethereum ASICs, all at various stages of development."
Rolland believes Bitmain's specialized chip offering for Ethereum will hurt demand for PC graphics cards - as well it should, since it stands as much a status quo breaker as Bitcoin mining ASIC were at the time of their introduction. Rolland further estimated that ethereum mining-related sales accounted for about 20% of AMD's sales and 10% of NVIDIA's revenue - strong numbers that if declining, would surely impact share value and company valuation. As a result, the analyst lowered his price target for AMD shares to $7.50 from $13, representing a 29% reduction from Friday's close. Forecast for NVIDIA shares was also reduced to $200 from $215, but NVIDIA didn't see a downgraded state - it remained at neutral - while AMD was downgraded from neutral to negative. The reasoning? "NVIDIA has a stronger and more durable gaming franchise which would help it work through this potential Ethereum-related unwind," he wrote. Source: Yahoo Finance
Add your own comment

70 Comments on NVIDIA, AMD to Face Worsening Investment Outlook as Bitmain Preps to Launch Ethereum ASIC

#51
moproblems99
Vayra86
the immense waste that comes with it
In this instance, waste is subjective. I think sitting behind a monitor gaming (or watching tv) is a waste. To others, not so much. One man's trash is another man's treasure.

In any case, I really don't think this particular asic will make much of a dent. You can basically do the same thing with a platinum psu and 9 1060GB for a few hundred dollars less. And as a bonus, you can mine other currencies...or waste your time playing games with them. You get to choose at that point.
Posted on Reply
#52
trparky
moproblems99
I think sitting behind a monitor gaming (or watching tv) is a waste.
You may see it as a waste but sometimes some good old fashioned sitting on your ass while being entertained is just what the doctor ordered and is the cure for what ails you (that and along with a pint of a nice cold beer). The world is stressful, sometimes you just need to escape it for awhile.
Posted on Reply
#53
moproblems99
trparky
You may see it as a waste but sometimes some good old fashioned sitting on your ass while being entertained is just what the doctor ordered and is the cure for what ails you (that and along with a pint of a nice cold beer). The world is stressful, sometimes you just need to escape it for awhile.
I don't disagree.
Posted on Reply
#54
R-T-B
Vayra86
For me personally, my beef is more with how we humans facilitate that greed and the immense waste that comes with it. Bitcoin is one of the greatest examples thus far.
And Bitcoin is ironically, completely ASIC mined.

trparky
You may see it as a waste but sometimes some good old fashioned sitting on your ass while being entertained is just what the doctor ordered and is the cure for what ails you (that and along with a pint of a nice cold beer). The world is stressful, sometimes you just need to escape it for awhile.
That may be it's own justification, yes, but it's still a waste.

Personally, I enjoy mining.
Posted on Reply
#55
lexluthermiester
Casecutter
To that point, prices are at Newegg at least for the RX 580 8Gb are "relaxing" slightly as of late, and see more of those SKU's shown as available to order. We probably won't see retail pricing drop to normal (for RX 580 8Gb say $220-250) until there's an exodus sell-off wave hitting Ebay. Right now average is $330 on up, but that's been fairly steady for Pre-owned for a while now.
True. The Radeon line is dropping slower than Geforce. A 1070 8GB was a ridiculous $1000+ at one point. It's now down in the $650 range, which is still high, but at least better.

moproblems99
I think sitting behind a monitor gaming (or watching tv) is a waste.
trparky
You may see it as a waste but sometimes some good old fashioned sitting on your ass while being entertained is just what the doctor ordered and is the cure for what ails you (that and along with a pint of a nice cold beer). The world is stressful, sometimes you just need to escape it for awhile.
Some people use it for relaxation, some people play for the challenge, some(as trparky point out) do it to escape the daily grind and some find it to be a fun hobby. To call gaming a waste of time would be to call anything humanity does for fun a waste also. It's not for everyone. The idea behind it is part of why we as a race have created so many different hobbies, aversions and pastimes.
Posted on Reply
#56
moproblems99
R-T-B
Personally, I enjoy mining.
You ought to see him swing a pick axe. He can also carry a much more than a typical amphibian.

lexluthermiester
True. The Radeon line is dropping slower than Geforce. A 1070 8GB was a ridiculous $1000+ at one point. It's now down in the $650 range, which is still high, but at least better.



Some people use it for relaxation, some people play for the challenge, some(as trparky point out) do it to escape the daily grind and some find it to be a fun hobby. To call gaming a waste of time would be to call anything humanity does for fun a waste also. It's not for everyone. The idea behind it is part of why we as a race have created so many different hobbies, aversions and pastimes.
Exactly my point. But some like to shit on others about what they do while turning around and saying how dare you when someone questions what they are doing. They can't get around their own selfishness and this is where my problem lies.

Edited for clarity
Posted on Reply
#57
lexluthermiester
moproblems99
They can't get around their own selfishness and this is where my problem lies.
I see your point! It's not uncommon unfortunately.
Posted on Reply
#58
yotano211
trparky
Except you're contributing to greed which is what I consider to be one of the most destructive elements of humanity. We should be trying to evolve past greed, to become better than what we are but instead it seems that for every step forward we take two steps back.
Its not greed, I am buying computer equipment and supporting or making jobs in this world.

trparky
EA is the worst of them all, there's a reason why they have won the Consumerist Golden Poo Award in 2012 and 2013
What does this have to do with mining. If you want to talk about games, go to another thread. Stop being so greedy and stay on topic.


moproblems99
When I looked up the specs on this, it really isn't that impressive. If I recall, it does 200mh/s @ 800watts and it costs about $3000USD. I have 210mh/s @ 950watts and I am sitting in the $2000USD - $2500USD range. I also have the ability to add in another 120mh/s or so for expansion.

As for greed, humans are innately greedy. It is what we do. Always have, always will. You can call me greedy all you want because I mine but I donate thousands of dollars a year to causes supporting veterans, elderly, and animals. I participate in beach cleanups, mangrove and tree plantings. What do you do?
I love it when people call me greedy or something similar when i do the same thing. I volunteer my time at the local library helping kids with their homework at least 3-5 hours per week when most people wont even lift a finger to help anyone else. I try to help out older kids since I dont have much patience for smaller kids, its a trait I always had.
Posted on Reply
#59
silkstone
moproblems99
You ought to see him swing a pick axe. He can also carry a much more than a typical amphibian.



Exactly my point. But some like to shit on others about what they do while turning around and saying how dare you when someone questions what they are doing. They can't get around their own selfishness and this is where my problem lies.

Edited for clarity
Isn't that the basic premise for Capitalism? Personal greed fuels the economy, without it we'd be up shit creek.
Posted on Reply
#60
lexluthermiester
silkstone
Isn't that the basic premise for Capitalism?
Incorrect. The premise for capitalism is equal business opportunity for all. Greed can and has happened in every economic model.
silkstone
Personal greed fuels the economy, without it we'd be up shit creek.
Again, incorrect. Greed is a product of obsession and envy. Without it we would very likely have a better society.
Posted on Reply
#61
Vayra86
moproblems99
Exactly my point. But some like to shit on others about what they do while turning around and saying how dare you when someone questions what they are doing. They can't get around their own selfishness and this is where my problem lies.

Edited for clarity
In the same vein, some like to think that compensating something negative with something positive somehow 'restores the balance'... all the while also stating that 'this is not greed'. That to me is disturbing. Effectively, and taken to extremes, you could justify a murder with making a baby that way and everyone agrees that won't fly ;). There is no need to justify our behaviour to one another because most people simply are hypocrites anyway, and those in denial are probably the greatest. You say 'waste' is subjective, no sorry, it really is not. The numbers just don't lie and in the grand order of things, crypto represents a high degree of waste with questionable returns.

The waste attributed to crypto is built into the very foundation of it, and it is called mining. Creating something out of nothing and using lots of energy to get there. And that something is no tangible object, but a virtual asset we somehow gave an arbitrary value. For all these calculations we don't get any knowledge, we don't gain any experience, all we get is that we solve a math problem that we created ourselves. That is a bizarre form of waste built into a neverending cycle. Beyond power usage, there is the 'waste' of hardware, a commodity that has a degree of scarcity in the way of limitations on production capacity and also the rare metals we need to build them.

There is also a wasteful component to the usage of crypto, in the cost of transactions, although I do believe that is a temporary thing. In the longer term, I feel it is likely that crypto will offer a more power efficient means for transactions, simply because of a higher degree of automation, which results in an efficiency our current systems do not have. The major problem here is the decentralized nature of crypto versus the centralized nature of fiat. Centralization is a form of efficiency.

This 'waste' is in no way comparable to the waste attributed to other 'fun' activities like gaming. Also, these other leisure activities have a clear, well researched purpose. We learn, we gain experience, and we actually GAIN (personal) energy because of it, both physically and emotionally. For those mining with their hard earned dollar, I would in fact consider a polar opposite of these positives; mining and the value of crypto can then cause lots of stress and even financial problems. Now realistically, do we really think that the vast majority of miners does it 'for fun'? Of course not - evidenced by the countless topics on TPU about people who have little knowledge or have done little research and just want us to lead them towards that gold mine. If you had genuine interest in the technology, you would go about it differently and there are some that do, here as well. Again, it is not up to us to judge individuals or justify behaviour, but in the larger numbers, these are trends.

It does not even remotely compare. And another reason it does not compare, is because people are greedy and we have created a system that facilitates that greed, which means the volume of this activity explodes. This is not a stab at you, but at the way things just quite simply work on a macro scale.

yotano211
Its not greed

helping kids with their homework at least 3-5 hours per week when most people wont even lift a finger to help anyone else.
The above goes for you, too... So you claim to know what most people do in their lives to help others, you also know that you're the better person compared to most others (wow!), AND you're not greedy? Do read carefully my first paragraph and give it some thought because the logic is off.
Posted on Reply
#62
moproblems99
Vayra86
In the same vein, some like to think that compensating something negative with something positive somehow 'restores the balance'... all the while also stating that 'this is not greed'.
You are assuming that the reason I mine is try and get rich. So please examine your own writings. At the least, thank you for a civil discussion. But we are going to have to agree to disagree on everything.
Posted on Reply
#63
Vayra86
moproblems99
You are assuming that the reason I mine is try and get rich. So please examine your own writings. At the least, thank you for a civil discussion. But we are going to have to agree to disagree on everything.
Fair point, that is an assumption and it may well be wrong.
Posted on Reply
#64
silkstone
lexluthermiester
Again, incorrect. Greed is a product of obsession and envy.
Then to say crypto is product of greed is a vast exaggeration or investing in anything in the hopes of personal gain is a greedy enterprise in itself.

Stupid, wasteful, pointless, time will tell and the odds mean that a lot of crypto-currencies will likely fail. It's akin to gambling or 'playing' the stock market in many respects. Some people do it for the possible future financial rewards, some people do it for fun, some just find it interesting.
Posted on Reply
#65
Casecutter
lexluthermiester
True. The Radeon line is dropping slower than Geforce.
It all about MH/s to watt. The RX 570's are still a ways from coming down pricewise because they offer low cost entry, strong MH/s to watt, while seen to be easy to divest (sell) when no long profitable (unearthing less than cost to run).
Posted on Reply
#66
lexluthermiester
silkstone
Then to say crypto is product of greed is a vast exaggeration or investing in anything in the hopes of personal gain is a greedy enterprise in itself.
Not really. There is some merit to the claim that crypto is motivated by greed. There are certainly examples of it. Not everyone mines out of greed. Some seemly with to do as something that helps them get further along in life. There's nothing wrong with personal gain either. It's called ambition and there's nothing wrong with that. Ambition for success and achievement is entirely positive so long as the motives are genuinely focused on progress. It becomes greed when the drive behind ambition is the desire for excessive wealth and to hoard such.
Posted on Reply
#67
RichF
Diverge
Because the idea is that crypto should be minable with readily available hardware that everyone has access to (videocards). The companies that create ASICs for mining use them for themselves initially, to get all the gains. Then sell them off. They aren't available to the masses, and usually not worth it by the time the normal commoner has access to them. This is why algorithms are created to be resistant to ASICs.
That's one idea. Another is that GPU makers (and even 3rd party GPU makers) — and their investors — love having crypto restricted to GPUs.

What's not to love about being able to sell out of one's product due to high demand, even if the product is inferior to the competition for its ostensible purpose? The 3rd parties also can sell out of their product without having to put in a lot more effort to differentiate their product from the competition. Basic GPU? Will sell for much higher than MSRP? Oh, I hate that, says 3rd party maker like Gigabyte. Uh huh. Investors also really don't like when their company's product is in high demand. They really hate that.

silkstone
Isn't that the basic premise for Capitalism?
Don't ask most anyone to not dance around inconvenient truths. There is moral integrity in selling things for more than they're worth (the basis of profit). It's not a scam at all.

Remember Ambrose Bierce's definition of the corporation? Well, now it's even worse: All of the benefits of personhood with none of the drawbacks. If a corporation hacks computers (like Google did to infect Apple products with evercookies) they get a slap on the wrist fine. If a real person does it they go to prison. Real people get sick, need sleep, and on and on.

Reality is, no matter how much people want to pretend otherwise, is that the foundation of the global economy is rapacious consumerist waste that is inextricably greedy, destructive, and amoral. Charity and other window dressings won't change this. Charity is like the lottery. It's a PR machine designed to sugarcoat harsh reality. Humanity has rewarded the aggressors for its entire history. Capitalism is social aggression that's structured to provide more perks, at least for some. Don't mistake an improved standard of living, especially one that is temporary (since we're destroying the planet's ecology in the process) for morality.

Diogenes said he walked around during the daytime with a lamp looking for an honest person. Nothing has changed. We all blithely support the same corruption that has always existed. And, yeah, it is now proven that the ballot boxes were stuffed in ancient Athens. So, even if we don't actively support the corruption it's supported for us, by our betters. Law's primary function is to establish and maintain elite privilege so even extra-legal things like ballot stuffing aren't the core issue. "Too rich to fail" = the too big to fail euphemism. How much we benefit from this "capitalism" (really plutocracy, which is socialism for the rich) due to the benefits of elitism are debatable but what isn't is that our planet can't take our consumption and waste, let alone people in vast swathes of China who try to breathe, drink the water, and eat the food.

A great example of the moral logic of the human is to look at the response to China having to hand-pollinate fruit trees because pollution and development has destroyed the pollinating insects. Tech enthusiasts get all excited about the potential of using drones to pollinate. That says all that needs to be said about human morality and next to no one notices or cares. Nero didn't actually fiddle while Rome burned but the rest of us are.
Posted on Reply
#68
r9
Why people make it that by the high prices only affect gamers and not the miners.
It's the same for everybody.
People who mine at home and have 5-10 didn't make the gpu prices go up it's the mining factories.
It's easy for them because all the risk is being taken by the dumb asses that pay for cloud mining.
If you buy hash rate you're the dumbest person in the world period.
With the money you are paying for set amount of hash rate you are paying for the hardware, their time to put it together and the electricity for the duration of the contract.
If you are very very very luck you might break even which I highly doubt.
Posted on Reply
#69
theonek
trparky
About time! Bring on the cheap video cards!!!
and would you buy at least 100 of them? I don't see anyone to buy more than one card for gaming...
Posted on Reply
#70
DimBo
Nothing will change much. Morons will sell their used videocards, non mentally-incapacitated people will mine X16 or Cryptonight based coins (on AMD) and X17 or Equihash based ones (on nVidia), overgrown children will still cry that they can't get their favourite toys for cheap.
Posted on Reply
Add your own comment