Tuesday, September 4th 2018

Analyst Firm Susquehanna: "Intel Lost its Manufacturing Leadership"

Intel was once the shining star in the semiconductor manufacturing industry, with a perfectly integrated, vertical product design and manufacturing scheme. Intel was one of the few companies in the world to be able to both develop its architectures and gear their manufacturing facilities to their design characteristics, ensuring a perfect marriage of design and manufacturing. However, not all is rosy on that field, as we've seen; AMD itself also was a fully integrated company, but decided to spin-off its manufacturing arm so as to survive - thus creating GLOBALFOUNDRIES.But Intel was seen as many as the leader in semiconductor manufacturing, always at the cutting edge of - well - Moore's Law, named after Intel's founding father Gordon Moore. Now, Mehdi Hosseini, an analyst with Susquehanna, has gone on to say that the blue giant has effectively lost its semiconductor leadership. And it has, in a way, even if its 10 nm (which is in development hell, so to speak) is technically more advanced than some 7 nm implementations waiting to be delivered to market by its competitors. However, there's one area where Intel will stop being able to claim leadership: manufacturing techniques involving EUV (Extreme UltraViolet).
It's being reported that intel has decided to postpone its EUV efforts to other processes, not taking it up on its 7 nm process development. This saves Intel money in adding yet another technique and technology to an already hard to manufacture node, but leaves the door ajar for the likes of TSMC and Samsung (of which the latter is expected to have the more complex EUV implementation, in more layers, at least in the beginning). TSMC is looking to develop both 7 nm and 7 nm+ manufacturing processes, where only the latter will feature EUV integration - a way to divide costs and reduce reliance on a still exotic technology. But while Samsung and TSMC are both looking towards some level of EUV integration by 2019, intel is looking towards a farther 2021.
According to Susquehanna's Mehdi Hosseini, TSMC is the company to look out for as the semiconductor manufacturer leader, as it "appears to be winning most of the leading-edge design wins due to better 7nm process technology performance, lower power consumption and better area density." Indeed "the times, they are a changin'." Source: EETimes
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61 Comments on Analyst Firm Susquehanna: "Intel Lost its Manufacturing Leadership"

#51
ShockG
hat, post: 3898337, member: 32804"
wat

There's no reason to believe that AMD can't hit 5GHz with Zen 2 on the 7nm process. We don't have any idea what it might or might not do. Though moving to a smaller process resulting in lower clocks seems completely bonkers, at least if it's a simple die shrink with maybe a few tweaks here and there (like Wolfdale was to Conroe). I could see that happening if while moving to a smaller process you also developed a radically different architecture, like the Core 2 Duo was to the Pentium, though late Pentiums and early C2D were both 65nm.
They aren't hitting 5GHz, and won't with AIOs and the like. It's not the node, but a core architectural design decision AMD made, when matching that with the intended process from TSMC.
It's also part of the reason why power draw, scales in an unfavourable way with the current Zen+ CPUs.
Again it's not the pitch, but the chosen process in combination with the architecture.
The focus on just this one value is misguided and of no relevance since 3D-gates / fin-fet manufacturing came around.

Sandy Bridge on a 32nm node could readily do 5.5GHz with air cooling and some even 5.7GHz with just liquid cooling. Years later, even CFL-S CPUs at 14nm cannot reach those frequencies with that sort of cooling, but will go farther with liquid nitrogen and helium than SB ever could.

It's best to wait and see what Zen 2 actually brings forth rather than hoping it'll just hit some random frequency. It's hard to know with so little data and info on the public (our) side.
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#52
deu
deu, post: 3897881, member: 164351"
LOOK AT ME!
nemesis.ie, post: 3897909, member: 22637"
@deu This isn't WCCFTech. ;)

Although it is feeling a lot more like it by the day ...
-1 :( well I thought my meme was funny!!
Posted on Reply
#53
R-T-B
deu, post: 3897881, member: 164351"
LOOK AT ME!
I lol'd.
Posted on Reply
#54
las
Vya Domus, post: 3897847, member: 169281"
Yeah, it doesn't and thank God for that.



Nah man it's all about that 5% better gaming performance. That's what is on the whiteboards in boardrooms at Intel :roll:
5% .. More like 25-50% in CPU bound gaming. This is why pretty much all go Intel route when using 120-240 Hz monitors.

B-Real, post: 3897842, member: 170068"
Gamer segment is a tiny bit of the CPU as whole.
Actually it's not. Gamers are a huge segment of desktop PC's these days. Non-gamers usually go mobile. Ryzen is fine for 60 fps/Hz gaming tho.

Dante Uchiha, post: 3897949, member: 161713"


7nm seems superior. I wonder what will happen when both AMD (7nm) and Intel(10nm) have CPUs with clocks near the 5Ghz barrier. Are we going to start the Battle of IPC improvement or will the CPUs market stagnate? Would a "simple lithography change" bring IPC gains?
5 GHz is not the limit and I doubt Zen 2 at 7nm will hit 5 GHz. Many run their newer Intel CPU's at more than 5 GHz. 5.2-5.5 GHz is a possibility.
Ryzen at 12nm can barely break 4.2 on average. Some are even stuck at 4.1ish using 2nd gen Ryzen.
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#55
Vya Domus
las, post: 3902216, member: 111974"
More like 25-50%
50% ? Absolute bollocks.
Posted on Reply
#56
las
Vya Domus, post: 3902228, member: 169281"
50% ? Absolute bollocks.
No. Come again when you have experience with high fps gaming using 120-240 Hz monitors. Ryzen chokes. Some games worse than others. Intel has good performance across all games. Ryzen is hit and miss.
Posted on Reply
#57
Vya Domus
las, post: 3902229, member: 111974"
No. Come again when you have experience with high fps gaming using 120-240 Hz monitors.
So basically no proof for your ludicrous claim. Your anecdotal evidence means jack.
Posted on Reply
#58
las
Vya Domus, post: 3902236, member: 169281"
So basically no proof for your ludicrous claim. Your anecdotal evidence means jack.
Tons of proof all over the Internet. You're simply in denial.
I guess you don't know much about high fps gaming when using FX6300 and a 1080p TV... You're a budget gamer; Ryzen will be fine for you.
Posted on Reply
#59
Vya Domus
las, post: 3902238, member: 111974"
. You're simply in denial.
And you are in lack of any glimmer of credibility.
Posted on Reply
#60
las
Vya Domus, post: 3902241, member: 169281"
And you are in lack of any glimmer of credibility.
Once again, go on YouTube and find high fps tests. You'll see what I mean. It's common knowledge at this point. Intel smokes AMD in CPU bound gaming.
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#61
lynx29
I think Ryzen 7nm will be very impressive, keep in mind - infinity fabric it uses directly related to DDR ram, and Ryzen 7nm should be using DDR5 ram, which may indeed be a very big boost, especially since that infinity thing they use is continually being optimized and getting better.
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