Monday, March 28th 2022

Pincered by Russian-Ukrainian War and Inflation, DRAM Price Drop Forecast to Continue in 2Q22 by 0-5%, Says TrendForce

According to TrendForce forecasts, average overall DRAM pricing in 2Q22 will drop by approximately 0~5%, due to marginally higher buyer and seller inventories coupled with the demand for products such as PCs, laptops, and smart phones being influenced in the short-term by the Russian-Ukrainian war and high inflation weakening consumer purchasing power. At present, the only remaining source of demand is on the server side, so overall DRAM stocks will remain oversupplied in 2Q22.

In terms of PC DRAM, PC OEMs are adopting a conservative stocking strategy for orders in 2Q22 due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, which may continue affecting orders during peak season in 2H22, and revising 2022 shipment targets downwards. Additionally, the overall supply of bits is still growing, so the PC DRAM price slump in 2Q22 will further expand to 3~8% and may continue to deteriorate.
In terms of server DRAM, the current server DRAM inventory level held by cloud service providers and enterprise clients is roughly the same as the amount held in 1Q22, and this relatively high inventory level is not enough to support a price reversal. The supply rate of server DRAM, of which there is still an oversupply, remains higher than 100% and this situation will continue into 2Q22. However, a price decline in 2Q22 is expected to converge at 0~5%, coinciding with the peak seasonal stocking surge.

In terms of Mobile DRAM, due to a number of factors such as high inflation, changes in the pandemic situation in various countries, and the Russian-Ukrainian war, it cannot be ruled out that the production volume of smartphones may continue to decline while smartphone brands will surely be more careful when planning production and material preparation. On the supply side, technology migration in manufacturing has offset the shift of DRAM production to the server DRAM field beginning in 2H21, maintaining the level of the mobile DRAM bit supply. For this reason, since the production targets of smartphone brands have fallen and average memory capacity of a single device has not significantly improved, oversupply is forecast to continue in 2Q22, with pricing set to decline approximately 0~5%.

In terms of Graphics DRAM, the demand side has been affected by weak virtual currency prices in recent months which has gradually started to assuage demand for graphics cards. The supply side is facing supply constraints and a vendor shortage since Micron will withdraw from the GDDR6 8Gb supply in 2Q22. This will cause a temporary supply-demand imbalance for Graphics DRAM as capacity allocation of Korean manufacturers fail to immediately fill the above-mentioned shortfall. Even if terminal demand slows down, considering GDDR6 8Gb remains mainstream in the current market, it will take time for manufacturers to convert specifications to 16Gb. Pricing is forecast to increase by 0~5% in 2Q22.

In terms of consumer DRAM, demand for DDR3 from specific products such as WiFi 6 and 5G base stations remains robust. Quantity of DRAM supplied to the market varies from manufacturer to manufacturer. Samsung and SK hynix have gradually reduced production of DDR3, while Taiwanese firm Nanya Tech has recently shifted production to DDR3, owing to DDR3's higher gross profit margin. Due to relatively stable demand and limited shipments from Korean manufacturers, the price of DDR3 will increase by 3~8% in 2Q22 with DDR4 maintaining a downward price trend.
Add your own comment

12 Comments on Pincered by Russian-Ukrainian War and Inflation, DRAM Price Drop Forecast to Continue in 2Q22 by 0-5%, Says TrendForce

#1
ThrashZone
Hi,
Just need another power outage ;)
Posted on Reply
#2
Aquinus
Resident Wat-man
ThrashZoneHi,
Just need another power outage ;)
Don't give them any more ideas than they already have, man. I want DDR5 prices to drop so I don't need to sell a kidney for it. :p
Posted on Reply
#3
ThrashZone
Hi,
Tariffs being dropped will do more than that 0-5%
Posted on Reply
#4
Aquinus
Resident Wat-man
ThrashZoneHi,
Tariffs being dropped will do more than that 0-5%
Nah, I'm sure that they're already using the Ukraine ordeal to offset the tariffs. 0-5% is after they fiddle with the numbers. :p
Posted on Reply
#5
ThrashZone
AquinusNah, I'm sure that they're already using the Ukraine ordeal to offset the tariffs. 0-5% is after they fiddle with the numbers. :p
Hi,
You noticed they used 0% to cover their asses :laugh:
Posted on Reply
#6
defaultluser
ThrashZoneHi,
Tariffs being dropped will do more than that 0-5%
No, it wont. Nobody fabs DRAM in China.

At most, it might affect some DIMM assemblers.
Posted on Reply
#7
timta2
The reasoning for this seems strange. How much memory is produced in or shipped through Ukraine or Russia?
Posted on Reply
#8
R-T-B
defaultluserNo, it wont. Nobody fabs DRAM in China.
China does, I think. Didn't they steal a bunch of tech to start their own NAND and RAM lines?
Posted on Reply
#9
Chiven
timta2The reasoning for this seems strange. How much memory is produced in or shipped through Ukraine or Russia?
It is consumed there. Otherwise, we'd see price hike.
Posted on Reply
#10
Baum
ChivenIt is consumed there. Otherwise, we'd see price hike.
?

Why is ukraine war an argument not to lower the prices again? right it is not.....

this is just price gambling

i can't see how the war is related to this, russia as a marked is missing completely so the price should fall :)
Posted on Reply
#12
R-T-B
I'm out of date (and wrong) apparently, thanks for the correction!
Posted on Reply
Add your own comment
Jun 25th, 2022 23:12 EDT change timezone

New Forum Posts

Popular Reviews

Controversial News Posts