Possible global cooling?

[Damn_Smooth]

http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/06/14/6857473-solar-forecast-hints-at-a-big-chill

The latest long-range space forecast predicts a prolonged drop in solar activity after the next peak — and scientists say that might cool down temperatures here on Earth, or at least slow down the warming trend a bit.

I find it kind of funny that scientists can never make up their mind on anything. I guess it might be a good thing if it happens though.

 

[Wrigleyvillain]

Yeah anything that slows down polar melting and thus keeps sea levels down would be good. The cause really isn't the point or what's important. It's the effects.

 

[twicksisted]

yeah personally im not that much into "global scaring" of the media.... if it gets cooler... then so be it... either way we have no control over it ... so be it

 

[trickson]

Gore did not think of this now did he ? What a buffoon ! No way we will ever have any lasting or real impact on the globe or the temp of it .

 

[twilyth]

Everyone really needs to read the article. Bottom line: solar cycles don't have that much of an impact on climate compared to greenhouse gases. A period of low activity might, at most, temporarily obscure the effects of increase greenhouse gas levels. Note in particular the last couple of paragraphs showing that even the Maunder Minimum (little ice age) was due only in part to a dearth of sunspot activity.

Gavin Schmidt, a climatologist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and one of the founders of the RealClimate blog, said the effects of solar activity on climate over the past 30 years have been "at the margin of what we can detect."

"They are detectable in the high atmosphere, but when you get down to the surface, there is so much other stuff going on that it's been really hard to get a clean signal," he told me.

One of the reasons why so little is known about solar effects on climate is that the sun's highs and lows have been within such a narrow range in recent history.

"If we were to see a return to what's called Maunder Minimum conditions in the next 50 years or so, that would be interesting," Schmidt said. "I think we'd learn a lot about solar physics and solar variability. ... It's going to be scientifically very exciting if all this pans out."

Even then, however, he estimated that the effect of greenhouse-gas emissions would be on the order of 10 times as great. "What you might see over a 20- to 30-year period is a slight slowdown in the pace of warming," Schmidt said. "In terms of how we should think about climate change prediction in the future, reducing emissions and so on, it really wouldn't make much of a difference."

But what about the Little Ice Age in the 1600s, when Swiss Alpine villages were reported destroyed by encroaching glaciers? Schmidt said that period also coincided with an upswing in volcanic emissions, which are known more definitely to contribute to global cooling.

 

[LAN_deRf_HA]

I think I've seen estimates showing about a 0.3 C drop in temperatures from this max. So what, at best we get a few years rewind on warming?

 

[bucketface]

scientists have attributed an ice age that had all but the eqatorial regions encased in ice to having been caused by a single celled organism... i'm pretty sure we can have some effect if thats the case.

 

[JTS]

Global warming vs Global cooling?

At least they can get the 'Global' part right

 

[entropy13]

Global warming vs Global cooling?

At least they can get the 'Global' part right

No, it's Global warming vs. lesser solar activity that Global warming won't be that warm.

I think I've seen estimates showing about a 0.3 C drop in temperatures from this max. So what, at best we get a few years rewind on warming?

The Mt. Pinatubo eruption had a bigger effect than that

Cooled down the Earth by 2C for 1992-1993.

 

[slyfox2151]

No, it's Global warming vs. lesser solar activity that Global warming won't be that warm.



The Mt. Pinatubo eruption had a bigger effect than that

Cooled down the Earth by 2C for 1992-1993.

oohh i did not know that


wiki says your off by about 1.5c however, still 0.5c on a global scale is huge.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo

 

[W1zzard]

that slows down polar melting and thus keeps sea levels down

sea levels rise due to thermal expansion of water heating up
floating ice melting has no significant impact
melting of glaciers or greenland ice might, but it will take a long long time

I think I've seen estimates showing about a 0.3 C drop in temperatures from this max. So what, at best we get a few years rewind on warming?

and when solar activity returns to normal levels it will hit us even worse

 

[Jetster]

I don't buy it. They cant tell me if its going to rain next week

 

[hat]

I don't buy it. They cant tell me if its going to rain next week

Yeah... another case of learning how to fly before you can crawl.

 

[gumpty]

Climate ≠ weather

The reporting in some media circles of this weeks solar activity study has really annoyed me.

In the past lower solar activity has contributed to lower global temperatures; this is well known. What some media have done with this story is point out that fact, and then suggest that the scientists are saying the same will happen this time. It wont; the scientists have said as much.
As twilyth pointed out, even if we get another Maunder Minimum, it will not 'cool' the planet, but at best slow the rate of warming. It will continue to get warmer, just a slightly slower rate. And as W1zz pointed out, when the sun returns to normal - the warming will smack us hard.

 

[Wrigleyvillain]

scientists have attributed an ice age that had all but the eqatorial regions encased in ice to having been caused by a single celled organism... i'm pretty sure we can have some effect if thats the case.

Yeah and we just released a new record 30 Gigatons of greenhouse gases into to the atmosphere last year. I'm no scientist but common sense dictates that would have an effect on the ecosystem.

 

[TheMailMan78]

sea levels rise due to thermal expansion of water heating up
floating ice melting has no significant impact
melting of glaciers or greenland ice might, but it will take a long long time



and when solar activity returns to normal levels it will hit us even worse

Why is the ice mass in Antarctica expanding then if its warming? To many contradictions in this science IMO.

Anyway I think we are egotistical to think we are effecting the Earth in a significant way in such a short time. I think this is a natural occurrence being used to force people into a "green energy" industry. Not that green energy is bad and we should be heading that way. I just dislike the scare tactics. I also think man is WAY out of his league when trying to guess what mother is doing.

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/sea_ice.html

Anyway thats how I feel.

 

[lilhasselhoffer]

~Sigh~

In the 1980's it was global cooling, and we were headed into a new ice age. The UN said there would be millions of climate refugees by 2010.

In the 1990's it was el nino, and the weather was not going to directly be within reason for a decade.

In the new milennium is was global warming. The world was going to be destroyed in a decade, and everything was all humanity's fault. Driving a car was like stabbing mother nature in the back. Selective breeding (genetic manipulation being only possible in laoratories) was producing franken food. The franken food would wipe out native plants, and eventually kill of oxygen producing plants (I have to choose the most insane idea to make my point).


As a moderate, I believe that climate change is possible. I believe that we can change the planet. I do not believe that we understand climate, and these idiots are sensationalizing science or hiring biased scientists to perform their studies. You can get one to state, unequivocally, that climate change is not happening. Another states that climate change will doom us in a matter of years. Two conflicting "facts" mean that someone is incapable of seeing the big picture.

Decreased solar activity is a hugely good thing. It will lend credance, or proove obsolescence, to the idea that the activity of the sun significantly influence our climate. Until some data is shown, this is all wild speculation by scientists that cannot hope to predict the future. They are looking at a human's finger, trying to divine what the person is thinking. Without a complete grasp of the system, they are guessing at what might happen. That many qualifiers implies a profound lack of knowledge, and a deep inadequacy of understanding.

Yeah and we just released a new record 30 Gigatons of greenhouse gases into to the atmosphere last year. I'm no scientist but common sense dictates that would have an effect on the ecosystem.

Exactly. You are not a scientist, you do not have a grasp on the whole picture, and your assumptions are therefore not a fact.

Anecdotal evidence is not evidence. I filled my car with gas yesterday (fuel gauge is broken), so I should have some left today. Is this a good assumption? No, I didn't tell you the whole problem. Maybe I drove 300 miles yesterday, maybe my fuel tank is only 1 gallon large, maybe there is a leak in the tank. Without the whole picture you are not performing science, you are divining with a wigi board that you've extricated from between you butt cheecks.

Show me the science, then I'll be willing to be scared. Until then, all you're doing is sensationalizing a problem to make your news sound dire.

 

[Sasqui]

Krakatoa Eruption of 1883 had some serious climate effects - all the way to 1888... 5 years!

"... Global climate in the year following the eruption, average global temperatures fell by as much as 1.2 °C (2.2 °F). Weather patterns continued to be chaotic for years, and temperatures did not return to normal until 1888. The eruption injected an unusually large amount of sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas high into the stratosphere which was subsequently transported by high-level winds all over the planet. This led to a global increase in sulfurous acid (H2SO3) concentration in high-level cirrus clouds. The resulting increase in cloud reflectivity (or albedo) would reflect more incoming light from the sun than usual, and cool the entire planet until the suspended sulfur fell to the ground as acid precipitation.... "

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1883_eruption_of_Krakatoa

 

[TheMailMan78]

Decreased solar activity is a hugely good thing.

And you know this how? How will it effect plant life and a million other things that rely on variants of UV?

 

[lilhasselhoffer]

And you know this how? How will it effect plant life and a million other things that rely on variants of UV?

Read the rest of the comment. I said it was good because it gives us a better picture of the whole system. It is not "good because temperature will go down." This is the only assumption that I can make, given that you obviously missed the intent (or simply missed in your hurry) of my words.


By the way, congrats on the new rig.

 

[TheMailMan78]

Read the rest of the comment. I said it was good because it gives us a better picture of the whole system. It is not "good because temperature will go down." This is the only assumption that I can make, given that you obviously missed the intent (or simply missed in your hurry) of my words.

No I misunderstood.

 

[W1zzard]

Why is the ice mass in Antarctica expanding then if its warming?

the liquid ocean water is expanding

 

[TheMailMan78]

the liquid ocean water is expanding

Expanding and warming should cause water levels to rise and melt. Not freeze. Correct?

 

[Easy Rhino]

surrender to your global masters! your own humanity is killing the environment you evolved into. your breath is slowly killing the planet and you must be euthanized. if you are rich enough you can pay your global masters for your life. pay no attention to his message. the revolution will not be televised.

 

[TheMailMan78]

surrender to your global masters! your own humanity is killing the environment you evolved into. your breath is slowly killing the planet and you must be euthanized. if you are rich enough you can pay your global masters for your life. pay no attention to his message. the revolution will not be televised.

I already give all my money to my wife. Take it up with her.