Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[Gmr_Chick]

Just because numbers for disease/virus X are higher than another, completely different, disease/virus A doesn't mean that A is less dangerous just because Y has "higher numbers".

 

[Regeneration]

I will compare numbers to numbers as I see fit as long as they are accurate and apply within the context of comparison.

And for those who earlier stated a certain remark, yes, you are missing something. Just because a group of you are failing to understand something glaringly obvious doesn't make it my problem. Try not to break anything figuring out what you missed.

75,000 sick, 7,500 dead in Italy. Death ratio of 10% when the medical system in a country is overwhelmed.

 

[HTC]

I will compare numbers to numbers as I see fit as long as they are accurate and apply within the context of comparison.

And for those who earlier stated a certain remark, yes, you are missing something. Just because a group of you are failing to understand something glaringly obvious doesn't make it my problem. Try not to break anything figuring out what you missed.

Let me ask you this: excluding War periods, when was the last time you've known hospitals to be overwhelmed as they have been in China @ 1st, then in Italy and now in Spain?

@ the risk of sounding callous, the deaths don't matter: what matters is the number of those that require hospitalization and THAT number is MUCH HIGHER than the 1 - 2% of the death toll because THAT'S what overwhelms the hospitals.

Many governments around the world are desperately trying to avoid THAT and go as far as shutdown a HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT PART of their countries in the hopes it doesn't come to that.

Why? Because once hospitals are overwhelmed, other medical problems that CAN BE TREATED in normal situations MAY NOT BE: not only the number of deaths from COVID-19 skyrockets but other deaths totally non related also occur, inflating the total death toll even more.

 

[Gmr_Chick]

Let me ask you this: excluding War periods, when was the last time you've known hospitals to be overwhelmed as they have been in China @ 1st, then in Italy and now in Spain?

@ the risk of sounding callous, the deaths don't matter: what matters is the number of those that require hospitalization and THAT number is MUCH HIGHER than the 1 - 2% of the death toll because THAT'S what overwhelms the hospitals.

Many governments around the world are desperately trying to avoid THAT and go as far as shutdown a HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT PART of their countries in the hopes it doesn't come to that.

Why? Because once hospitals are overwhelmed, other medical problems that CAN BE TREATED in normal situations MAY NOT BE: not only the number of deaths from COVID-19 skyrockets but other deaths totally non related also occur, inflating the total death toll even more.

You bring up a VERY good point. Because COVID isn't the ONLY medical problem people face -- people still suffer heart attacks, sepsis, and other critical care health emergencies in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, critical medical emergencies that won't be able to be given the proper care/attention because the doctors, nurses and hospitals will be overwhelmed from the number of COVID-19 patients.

I lost my father to a combination of sepsis and undiagnosed colon cancer (none of us knew he had it until it was too late) in June of 2018. He was in the ICU for 3 weeks, in and out of surgery. And I gotta be honest, I'm beginning to tear up just thinking about if that situation were to happen right now during this pandemic -- would he even be able to get the proper medical attention he required, or would his life have to be sacrificed so that a COVID-19 patient could use his ICU bed and ventilator?

OK, that's all I'm going to say because I can't see the keyboard through my tears.

 

[HTC]

You bring up a VERY good point. Because COVID isn't the ONLY medical problem people face -- people still suffer heart attacks, sepsis, and other critical care health emergencies in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, critical medical emergencies that won't be able to be given the proper care/attention because the doctors, nurses and hospitals will be overwhelmed from the number of COVID-19 patients.

I lost my father to a combination of sepsis and undiagnosed colon cancer (none of us knew he had it until it was too late) in June of 2018. He was in the ICU for 3 weeks, in and out of surgery. And I gotta be honest, I'm beginning to tear up just thinking about if that situation were to happen right now during this pandemic -- would he even be able to get the proper medical attention he required, or would his life have to be sacrificed so that a COVID-19 patient could use his ICU bed and ventilator?

OK, that's all I'm going to say because I can't see the keyboard through my tears.

1st, my condolences.

If it were to happen today in any of the hard hit areas, it's quite possible it would, yes.

There's another aspect of hospital overwhelming that i was forgetting and this one is MUCH MORE SERIOUS: overwhelm hospitals long enough and you'll have a COLLAPSING health system because the health workers will become exhausted both physically as well as mentally.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

75,000 sick, 7,500 dead in Italy. Death ratio of 10% when the medical system in a country is overwhelmed.

Consider what the numbers would be if influenza had no Tamiflu or vaccination. Even with those things, the numbers every year are staggering (average of roughly 25 million Americans per year) and still dwarfs COVID-19. I'm with lexluthermiester, the patterns are similar just one is old and the other is new. Even the symptoms are similar but COVID-19 starts with shortness of breath quicker. Influenza can develop the same symptom via pneumonia. Influenza-A put me in the ER two weeks ago...guess what I have now.


As others have stated, the problem isn't COVID-19 itself. The problem is that people get sick anyway and this is *still* cold and flu season. It's a triple whammy.

The other problem which is unique to COVID-19 is that it ravages the lungs. Reduced lung function requires ventilators and there's a shortage of them. Just pushing the vast number of cases down the road to when ventilators are more readily available will save a lot of people (see below).


So...uh...what's this got to do with maps?

Segue! This was linked earlier in the thread and it bears repeating:

Coronavirus Simulation

This simple simulation shows how social distancing helps slow the spread of viruses.

corona.katapult-magazin.de

The goal right now is to be that model on the right.

 

[Regeneration]

I have a close friend with cancer at stage 4 that supposed to do a blood test every few weeks, MRI every few months, and going through chemotherapy, but now is afraid of going to the hospital and even a local clinic. COVID-19 is probably a certain death for her.

I lost my father to a combination of sepsis and undiagnosed colon cancer (none of us knew he had it until it was too late) in June of 2018. He was in the ICU for 3 weeks, in and out of surgery. And I gotta be honest, I'm beginning to tear up just thinking about if that situation were to happen right now during this pandemic -- would he even be able to get the proper medical attention he required, or would his life have to be sacrificed so that a COVID-19 patient could use his ICU bed and ventilator?

OK, that's all I'm going to say because I can't see the keyboard through my tears.

I'm sorry to hear about your father.

Most modern hospitals have a quarantine department. COVID patients are kept there - unless there is a need for an immediate surgery, or the place is heavily crowded.

Hospitals move patients to and from ICU all the time.

Cancer patients are treated in oncology department unless there they're in a critical condition.

It is unlikely for COVID-19 patient to take a bed from cancer patient; unless, the hospital is overwhelmed and chaotic.

Since there is a week delay until COVID-19 shows any symptoms, hospitals are great places to catch the virus… probably much higher chances to catch it there than any other place.

The main concern is with cancer treatments (both pills and chemotherapy) have a serious negative effect on the immunity system. Patients with compromised immunity system won't able to handle the virus.

Ventilators are shared all around the hospital that can be a problem.

 

[biffzinker]

Here we go, more cases in Alaska.

More than a dozen new cases have been recorded in Alaska, officials said Wednesday evening, totaling at least 59 cases across the state.

Chief Medical Officer Dr. Anne Zink said Wednesday that the number of cases includes 11 new ones from Anchorage, as well as cases from Homer, North Pole, and other locations. Eight of the new cases are in men and nine are in women. Two cases - one from Tuesday and one from Wednesday - are in Anchorage in critical condition. A third hospitalization was also announced, though location and condition were unknown at the time of publication.

DHSS: New COVID-19 cases made public on Wednesday span from Homer to North Pole, two in critical condition

With 17 new cases reported Wednesday, Gov. Mike Dunleavy, along with officials from the State of Alaska Department of Health and Social Services, provided an update on the status of coronavirus in Alaska.

www.ktuu.com

People need to listen to the guidelines such as social distancing, staying at home etc. otherwise this blows up much worse than people expected it too. it's a bleak future of what we have to deal with ahead of use. Don't want to sound all doom, and gloom but it's just getting started.

 

[Gmr_Chick]

^ Yeah, agree completely. And yet, somebody VERY orange and VERY stupid wants this country "business-as-usual" just in time for Easter...

 

[biffzinker]

Only if we have a therapeutic drug, or vaccine will it go back to business as usual.

 

[Regeneration]

So far with all those new rules on a daily basis its going to be martial law by easter.

 

[Vayra86]

Its a curve guys and I'm glad to see a fact based approach (social distancing) being picked up at large for the US as well. They kinda have no option, even Trump can say whatever he likes but it won't change a thing. Politics is the last thing people want right now. The good thing about a curve is that you can influence it and that is all you can realistically do here. The best thing is to do so as early and isolate as complete as possible, keeping your social circle to an absolute minimum for a few months. It doesn't matter whether you're infected or not, just doing your part is enough to put the lid on this.

And after that... its a slow return to the norm. There is absolutely no way things are business as usual even this Fall. We might see a return of social distancing measures at that point with a little break in summer.

 

[Gmr_Chick]

^ My family likes to joke around and call me the "poster child for COVID-19 prevention" lol. I wash my hands constantly (20 seconds? Bah! Try a minute! ) with soap and warm water, use hand sanitizer religiously, I don't have any friends and thus no social life so I stay inside my house most of the time, so I got the "social distancing" thing covered -- and I was doing this well before COVID-19 became a thing, lol

 

[Rahnak]

On a more positive note, it seems quarantine is finally having an effect on Italy's rate of new infections with 4 consecutive days below the peak of March 21st.

 

[ne6togadno]

science

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR1mz5UxI56eH9GO4SfKdceu8YwA0G9y6wijZAQVbdC0fDC7-oDV_mDBYMs

A Novel Coronavirus Genome Identified in a Cluster of Pneumonia Cases — Wuhan, China 2019−2020

weekly.chinacdc.cn

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30382-2/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR2eMvRj0oVkvJmBSN2lnV4lmlsxJSZzWD5FpEeiLKKuuqSsQEu2MVk-dN8

media

China arrested 8 for spreading ‘hoaxes’ about what is now known as coronavirus. What happened to them?

More than 20 days have passed since eight people were detained in Wuhan for spreading 'misinformation'. The world doesn’t know much about what them

www.poynter.org

How early signs of the coronavirus were spotted, spread and throttled in China

(CAIXIN GLOBAL) - The new coronavirus that has claimed nearly 3,000 lives and spread to more than 50 countries was sequenced in Chinese labs - and found to be similar to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) - weeks before officials publicly identified it as the cause of a mysterious...

www.straitstimes.com

 

[the54thvoid]

Thread dusted down. Take the discussions about govt. and media to the lounge (where it still might get removed).

I checked the links above and they're not populist nonsense. Poynter, on face, appears reasonable. The discussions aren't entirely without merit.

However, keep the discussions related to the spread, the stats, and it's geographic relevance.


Edit: Spain and Italy Covid-19 deaths now above 11,000. Not an insignificant number.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

- 3544 confirmed infected
- 60 fatalities
- 43 recovered
- 2145 waiting for test results

There has been a reduction in the number of cases since yesterday but it's too early to tell if this is the effect of the country's measures or something else.

Edit: Spain and Italy Covid-19 deaths now above 11,000. Not an insignificant number.

These two countries account for OVER HALF of the total fatalities, thus far. If you add China's numbers, then it's roughly 2 / 3 of the entire death toll number.

Why am i bringing this up, you may ask? Because these 3 countries have a thing in common: they all had / have overwhelmed hospitals.

 

[repman244]

75,000 sick, 7,500 dead in Italy. Death ratio of 10% when the medical system in a country is overwhelmed.

I would just like to add something here. The medical system in Italy as a country was no overwhelmed, it was actually overwhelmed in few cities which got hit hard.
Now imagine if the system got hit nation-wide like most people think it did, the number of deaths would be staggering.

Italy's coronavirus crisis

Tracking the daily toll of the virus

graphics.reuters.com

If I remember correctly on the day with highest number of deaths which was ~750, around 500 of those came from Bergamo alone.

And statistically every family in Bergamo lost a family member.

And doctors working in those hospitals said that they would not compare it to the flu, but should be compared to a sever case of pneumonia (now put yourself in a position where you get normal pneumonia but you don't have any antibiotics to cure it, would it be easy? I think not!).
Those people that compare it to the flu...it's your opinion, but don't try to force that opinion on others, that's a bit dangerous IMO.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Those people that compare it to the flu...it's your opinion, but don't try to force that opinion on others, that's a bit dangerous IMO.

Except that the numbers say otherwise. You are welcome to your opinion.

 

[repman244]

Except that the numbers say otherwise. You are welcome to your opinion.

Of course they do, we don't have lockdowns for the flu so the only real comparison with the flu numbers would be to cancel all the lockdowns and see what happens.
The effects of flu compared to the coronavirus are different - you are much more likely to sustain permanent damage on your organs from coronavirus then you are from the flu.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Of course they do, we don't have lockdowns for the flu so the only real comparison with the flu numbers would be to cancel all the lockdowns and see what happens.
The effects of flu compared to the coronavirus are different - you are much more likely to sustain permanent damage on your organs from coronavirus then you are from the flu.

True and that will be an interesting result to see.

 

[repman244]

True and that will be an interesting result to see.

The result would be millions and millions of dead - that to me is not interesting.


This video is from one hospital in Italy....just for you, listen at 1:30

 

[rtwjunkie]

New daily numbers have been released for Louisiana: about 18,000 tests completed. 2,305 positive. That’s a growth of about 550 in a day. Our first 10 have recovered. 83 deaths.

Of the positive tests, 676 are hospitalized, with 239 of those on ventilator. About 1,550 of the positive cases are concentrated in the population center of the New Orleans metro area.

It’s nice to be finally reporting some recoveries here.

Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.

ldh.la.gov

 

[lexluthermiester]

The result would be millions and millions of dead - that to me is not interesting.

You're not a scientist. I am. I'm looking primarily at the science of all of this.

 

[repman244]

You're not a scientist. I am. I'm looking primarily at the science of all of this.

Italy has a population of approximately 60m, if everyone got infected and if we apply the ~9% death rate we saw on the previous page...well you can do the math, after all you're a scientist.