Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[moproblems99]

We don't yet appear to be seeing the effects of the easing of restrictions: dunno if that is good or bad.

What if there are no effects from loosening restrictions?

 

[the54thvoid]

What if there are no effects from loosening restrictions?

Well, the thing for almost all places has followed the same trajectory. Initial surge, late lockdown and a prolonged flattening of the curve. Places that denied it was a problem - Brazil, Russia (at least initially) have had a huge surge of late - the epidemiological evidence is there to see. Places like New Zealand that enacted a lockdown before the first death have emerged relatively unscathed. What you have now, in places following a lockdown is the dilution of the virus among the human population. It will exist in pockets that can be quickly shut down again (for example, South Korea, where a nightclub area helped infect another 100 people (one club) after they relaxed things - that area is now in lockdown again.

There should be manageable outbreaks after the easing of restrictions - people will still die but the numbers wont be so high. It was never about stopping deaths; it was about reducing the flood of casualties. Some places were too late (look at Italy, Spain, New York, UK, etc). But where a low viral incidence is present, the loosening will see a lower level of impact.

If your point is: loosening and no effects means it was all hocum? then, that's a very shortsighted view (if thats the angle, and genuine apologies if it is not). But given how many people have died because of a hesitance to enact lockdown, it's clear the potential for far higher deaths. Once you've had a few hundred closely linked deaths, if not a couple of thousand, the virus will wreak havoc until its prevalence is vastly diminished - which is where many lockdown countries are now.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Testing kits and PPE (masks / gowns for nurses) are also far more available these days than even just one month ago. At a minimum, we can start to feel somewhat safe about opening back up, because our hospitals don't look like they'll be overwhelmed anymore.

This won't be over until the vaccine is available, but keeping the lockdown until 2022 is unfeasible. I see this "opening up" period as a time for governors to test what does work, and what doesn't work. As long as our testing framework is robust, we will be able to react within days of an outbreak (instead of weeks).

 

[moproblems99]

If your point is: loosening and no effects means it was all hocum? then, that's a very shortsighted view (if thats the angle, and genuine apologies if it is not). But given how many people have died because of a hesitance to enact lockdown, it's clear the potential for far higher deaths. Once you've had a few hundred closely linked deaths, if not a couple of thousand, the virus will wreak havoc until its prevalence is vastly diminished - which is where many lockdown countries are now.

No, certainly not. The virus is real and can kill. Everyone is just so convinced if you look at someone without protection Medusa herself would be jealous.

 

[the54thvoid]

No, certainly not. The virus is real and can kill. Everyone is just so convinced if you look at someone without protection Medusa herself would be jealous.

I dont see that level of fear here, thankfully. I've seen people being respectful of space but otherwise, very little wearing of masks, a friendly 'hello' on my daily walk. No hysteria.

 

[HTC]

What if there are no effects from loosening restrictions?

I'm expecting a hike in cases @ 1st followed by a hike in hospitalized / ICU one to two weeks later: the million dollar question is how high will this hike be?

Supposedly, the incubation period is 5 to 14 days: we had our 11th day with ease of restrictions and, so far, no hike @ all apparently, which begs the question: is the incubation period longer than we thought?

 

[dragontamer5788]

I'm expecting a hike in cases @ 1st followed by a hike in hospitalized / ICU one to two weeks later: the million dollar question is how high will this hike be?

Supposedly, the incubation period is 5 to 14 days: we had our 11th day with ease of restrictions and, so far, no hike @ all apparently, which begs the question: is the incubation period longer than we thought?

Estimated Incubation Period of COVID-19 - American College of Cardiology

Venkatesh Locharla Murthy, MD, PHD, FACC

www.acc.org

Overall, 181 cases from outside Hubei province occurring before February 24, 2020, were analyzed. The majority of cases were from outside of mainland China (n = 108). Most had history of travel to Wuhan or contact with travelers from the region. The authors estimated the median incubation period to be 5.1 days (95% confidence interval, 4.5-5.8 days); 97.5% of people who were infected exhibited symptoms by 11.5 days (95% confidence interval, 8.2-15.6 days). Similar results were obtained in analysis looking only at fever onset.


The authors then computed that if risk of exposure is low (1 in 10,000 exposed people) or medium (1 in 1,000 exposed people), 7 days of monitoring would be sufficient to identify >99% of symptomatic cases. However, if monitoring definitely infected people, monitoring durations >14 days could be required to capture >99% of symptomatic cases.

11 days for the 97.5% confidence before symptoms appear. I don't expect people to go out and party immediately. And if people are still using masks / other protective steps, the virus simply won't spread as quickly as it did before.

Telework should continue where possible, and minimizing travel / leisure in public places will help prevent the spread. And while we estimate "R0" to be a constant number from person to person, note that most of the R0 follows the "whale" model, where one or two "super-spreaders" grossly inflate the R0 value. The super-spreader in the Washington State choir infected roughly 53 people.

Stopping "super-spreading" events (10+ people in one meeting) will reduce the spread of the virus. As long as R remains at 1.0 or less, you won't gain any more cases... but instead enter a period of prolonged plateau.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 28583 confirmed infected --- 264 more
- 3328 recovered --- 130 more
- 1190 fatalities --- 6 more
- 289309 suspected cases --- 3024 more
- 600061 tests taken --- 17720 more
- 2722 waiting for test results --- 46 more
- 25792 under watch from authorities --- 290 less
- 673 hospitalized --- 7 less
- 112 in ICU --- 4 more

The really good news is that we had our lowest daily death hike since March 22nd, and we also crossed the 600K tests taken mark.

Unfortunately, ICU number grew again despite hospitalizations number having dropped again: the change was slight though, for both numbers.

 

[Tomgang]

Just a little update from Denmark.

Numbers are still going down, but what is really good is that for the first time today, we had 0 dead to report since the outbreak in marts.

 

[Hemmingstamp]

No, certainly not. The virus is real and can kill. Everyone is just so convinced if you look at someone without protection Medusa herself would be jealous.

Some people I know think the virus isn't real because they don't know anyone who has had it and recovered, or died from it.
I was sceptical until my sis-in-law told us yesterday that her friend's mum a couple of miles away had died from it recently.
We will carry on wearing PPE when out until a vaccine is found, regardless of the funny looks some give us.

 

[mateonox]

these guys are really on the top of the traffic mount now.
sometimes I even ger paranoid with all this tracking thing.
I don't leave the house, though, but can definitely imagine the government watching us like a big brother -____-
what a black mirror we're living in

 

[EarthDog]

I'm expecting a hike in cases @ 1st followed by a hike in hospitalized / ICU one to two weeks later: the million dollar question is how high will this hike be?

Supposedly, the incubation period is 5 to 14 days: we had our 11th day with ease of restrictions and, so far, no hike @ all apparently, which begs the question: is the incubation period longer than we thought?

Remember, the flood gates didn't open...it's is an easing of restrictions. This time around at least some people are wearing ppe to protect each other and social distancing is still reccomended. Big difference from 6-8 weeks ago where there wasnt any social distancing or ppe.

 

[rtwjunkie]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

View attachment 155286 View attachment 155287

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 28583 confirmed infected --- 264 more
- 3328 recovered --- 130 more
- 1190 fatalities --- 6 more
- 289309 suspected cases --- 3024 more
- 600061 tests taken --- 17720 more
- 2722 waiting for test results --- 46 more
- 25792 under watch from authorities --- 290 less
- 673 hospitalized --- 7 less
- 112 in ICU --- 4 more

The really good news is that we had our lowest daily death hike since March 22nd, and we also crossed the 600K tests taken mark.

Unfortunately, ICU number grew again despite hospitalizations number having dropped again: the change was slight though, for both numbers.

Am I reading right? 600,000 tests? That’s great!

 

[HTC]

Am I reading right? 600,000 tests? That’s great!

Correct: 58.8K per 1M population and number 15 in the world for this specific metric, currently.

To be honest, i'm as much surprised as you by that.

 

[rtwjunkie]

Correct: 58.8K per 1M population and number 15 in the world for this specific metric, currently.

To be honest, i'm as much surprised as you by that.

When I saw that I thought it was a very high per capita testing rate.

 

[Tatty_Two]

I'm expecting a hike in cases @ 1st followed by a hike in hospitalized / ICU one to two weeks later: the million dollar question is how high will this hike be?

Supposedly, the incubation period is 5 to 14 days: we had our 11th day with ease of restrictions and, so far, no hike @ all apparently, which begs the question: is the incubation period longer than we thought?

You also have to remember that it depends on how much you eased in the first phase, the odds are (and expected) that as you move through phases there will be increased infections but as you said, hopefully within a manageable quantity but what is important is that at that point your Scientific and Viral experts should be able to see what element of a phased stage of easing caused the upsurge and respond to it smartly, if that is the case you wouldn't need to go back into a full lockdown, but just withdraw a particular easing, I mean, does anyone think that when millions go back to work increased infections will be low?

The point being, it is unlikely there will be any normality (as in everyone working that has a job and a relatively high degree of economic stability) before a vaccine, whether deliberate or as an effect, all most of us who are easing lockdowns are doing now is a balancing act between public health and the economy until such a time that a vaccine does become available (if)…….. and if it doesn't within a reasonable time frame (12-18 months, my guestimate.... no one else's) we in the end may have to go down the route of herd immunity through increased infections.

 

[HTC]

You also have to remember that it depends on how much you eased in the first phase, the odds are (and expected) that as you move through phases there will be increased infections but as you said, hopefully within a manageable quantity but what is important is that at that point your Scientific and Viral experts should be able to see what element of a phased stage of easing caused the upsurge and respond to it smartly, if that is the case you wouldn't need to go back into a full lockdown, but just withdraw a particular easing, I mean, does anyone think that when millions go back to work increased infections will be low?

The point being, it is unlikely there will be any normality (as in everyone working that has a job and a relatively high degree of economic stability) before a vaccine, whether deliberate or as an effect, all most of us who are easing lockdowns are doing now is a balancing act between public health and the economy until such a time that a vaccine does become available (if)…….. and if it doesn't within a reasonable time frame (12-18 months, my guestimate.... no one else's) we in the end may have to go down the route of herd immunity through increased infections.

Agreed, and agreed.

Unless either someone comes up with some sort of treatment to seriously diminish the effects this virus has on those that require hospitalization or a vaccine is discovered, normalcy will not return anytime soon, will all the consequences that it causes to the all countries' economies.

Some European countries are trying to resume football but i have serious reservations if it will work, despite no public in the stands and all the safety measures they came up with: all it takes is one infected forcing a team to quarantine and it all comes "crashing down". They should just end the current year without winners AND losers, and that should also be applied to other sports. OTOH, football player's contracts take a serious toll on the club's finances and it wouldn't surprise me to see even big clubs in serious financial trouble if this continues, which is why they are pushing to try and resume, despite playing behind closed doors: they are counting on the TV rights to give them a life line.

 

[moproblems99]

So here is some news from Georgia. The state that decided to blaze its own trail.

As of Friday, Georgia had more than 36,000 cases of coronavirus, according to Johns Hopkins University data. More than 1,500 people have died.

Since reopening late last month, Georgia hasn't seen a spike in coronavirus cases, Johns Hopkins said. But there also hasn't been a significant decrease in new case counts.

Georgia's rate of new cases has been trending unsteadily downward in recent days, per Johns Hopkins. The state averaged 669 new cases a day over a seven-day period that ended May 13, down about 6% from the previous week.

 

[dragontamer5788]

So here is some news from Georgia. The state that decided to blaze its own trail.

Here's Georgia's official stats: https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

Georgia has a population of 10.62 million, similar to Portugal and some other areas being discussed in this thread.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Saw a picture on Ag Day of where the main meat processors are. Found similar map here:

Map: COVID-19 meat plant closures

Meatpoultry.com will update this map throughout the COVID-19 outbreak.

www.meatpoultry.com

Now look at where deaths are still rising:

Where U.S. coronavirus cases are on the rise

The states where the outbreak is growing fastest

graphics.reuters.com

They kind of line up, don't they? My county went from 8 cases to over 100 in a few weeks because of the meat processors in my county. Just heard the ice cream processor has confirmed cases too, a county down. And one more county down from them was the meat capital of the world 100 years ago and I'm pretty sure the critical care beds are full up there (or close to it). Why? Meat packers in that and surrounding counties.

Nebraska is falling for now but I don't expect it will stay that way. Lots of meat packers there too and many are reporting cases. As they test employees, they'll have similar case counts Iowa does...which inevitably translates into deaths a few weeks later.

Hope you'll love your meat because people around here are literally dying to keep it coming.

 

[dragontamer5788]

View attachment 155403

That's an incomplete map. Virginia had at least 1 temporary plant closure.

Tyson Foods closes Virginia Shore plant for 'deep cleaning'

Tyson Foods announced it will close its Temperanceville, Virginia plant Friday so the company can clean and sanitize the common areas over the weekend.

www.delmarvanow.com

I feel like I heard that Perdue Farms's plant also closed. But I can't find any news confirmation of that. But news confirmation of at least the Tyson Foods plant temporarily closing due to COVID19.

--------

What's going on, is that food is an "essential service", which must remain open in the US lockdown. As such, any food processing plant continues to operate throughout the pandemic. Its not just meat plants however, grocery stores, paramedics, police officers, etc. etc. seem to be harder hit by the pandemic, because they're all "essential" and have to keep going to work throughout this situation.

Meat processing is unique in that many people are shoulder-to-shoulder for hours, which may cause the virus to spread more quickly.

 

[the54thvoid]

^^ Food is essential but mass industrialised processes to procure cheaper meat are far from sanitary or ethical. It all comes down to that 1st world problem of entitlement where the consumer demands a cut of meat for less and less. There's only one way to fill that demand - make giblets as though you're producing bottle tops. And those factories need a lot of low-paid workers to work the lines. Low paid often equals poorer, often equals worse health - which is a prelude to a Covid19 party.

Our modern world has made things too cheap to maintain with little regard for consequence.

I'm a meat-eater btw - this isn't a vegan spin, just a critique of modern industrialised food processing. Nuka Cola anyone?

 

[dragontamer5788]

I'm more than willing to discuss the politics of meat packing plants here in America. I'll try to keep it COVID19 related (unions and stuff may help, but its too far removed and off topic IMO).

The main thing IMO, is illegal immigrants who are too afraid to enter the healthcare system, out of fear for deportation. The Obama administration made hospitals a "safe space", and commanded ICE agents that capturing immigrants from hospitals was unacceptable. Trump has reversed the policy. And under this administration, illegal immigrants (many of whom work at these food processing plants, being exploited for cheap labor) are now too afraid to enter a hospital and get tested for COVID19.

Its a confluence of disasters frankly. The illegal immigration issue has transformed into a public health crisis, as a portion of the (I admit... illegal) workforce suddenly is too afraid to get healthcare (for fear of deportation). There's an entire group of invisible, undetected COVID19 cases running around those parts of the country. We can't count them if they are too afraid to come to the hospital.

--------------

As far as "consume less meat". I can agree with that. But even if I cut my own meat consumption to nil, it won't change those factories. Too many of my neighbors will continue to eat meat. I do try to have more veggies than others, and meat is something I do my best to never waste. An animal died so that I could have the meat after all, the least I could do is ensure I eat all of it.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

That's an incomplete map. Virginia had at least 1 temporary plant closure.

That it is, but it shows where they are concentrated.

There's Tyson, Perdue, and Smithfield plants around here that have been in various states of opening and closing. One for sure (the one that had an outbreak in my county) isn't on that map either but it's a cluster of many others so it's effectively represented.

 

[rtwjunkie]

The map ignores the poultry industry which is just as bad as the beef industry for unhealthy working conditions. Next door Mississippi is filled with chicken plants, with Tyson, and at least 3 Sanderson Farms.