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Global Warming & Climate Change Discussion

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Life is too short to read innuendo and BS?

Really dude, read my post. You're making a complete ass of yourself over nothing.
 
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Really dude, read my post. You're making a complete ass of yourself over nothing.
No...you are dude! read everything and you will agree! I bet you a steak dinner!

And you're not even out! You have more gusto that that!

My views on climate change are clear, as I go with what the majority of scientists have concluded.
OK, this is where the rubber meets the road... Are you ready to lose a debate?


This is what you are referring to right?
 
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This is what you are referring to right?

No, the actual majority is much lower, though I don't care to debate actual climate change. It's not really a strong belief of mine either way and it's way too dramatic for me.
 

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100% of my family agree its bloody freezing this morning and i should light our coal fire to toast our toes.

FTW........:D
 

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Good grief man! Should I hold your hand and read them all to you too??? smh...
Carefull he might ask you to do that and round it off with some heart throbbing HOT PORN story's to raise his Temps

100% of my family agree its bloody freezing this morning and i should light our coal fire to toast our toes.

FTW........
Or an English Holiday home
 

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The burning of English holiday homes in Wales did very little to contribute to global warming. It did however give the Welsh a warm glow.
 

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I bet you a steak dinner!
Since beef production hasn't been a factor either. :p

In all seriousness, I think we can all agree that the climate is changing but, there is disagreement on how and why it's changing. Some people say it's humanity and some people say it's the natural evolution of the planet but, in reality, it's probably somewhere in between... but to say that the climate isn't changing is straight up false. I know people who have degrees in meteorology and what people don't understand is that our climate has so many factors that it's very hard to determine why something occurs because of all the other things a single change can impact. A small change can lead to other small changes which can lead to other small changes that eventually start a trend and identifying these things is very hard, so modelling them is even harder because you're trying to describe something without necessarily having a completely picture of the interactions in the atmosphere.

Either way, I leave this to the people who have dedicated their lives to studying it and attempting to understand it. Anyone who thinks they can simplify a complex problem that these people can't figure out completely themselves is merely delusional.
 
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Remember...none of this is political ;)

My Unhappy Life as a Climate Heretic
My research was attacked by thought police in journalism, activist groups funded by billionaires and even the White House.
"More troubling is the degree to which journalists and other academics joined the campaign against me. What sort of responsibility do scientists and the media have to defend the ability to share research, on any subject, that might be inconvenient to political interests—even our own?"12/4/2016

http://www.wsj.com/articles/my-unhappy-life-as-a-climate-heretic-1480723518
Shhhh! Man-made Global Warming is "A" political...See?:clap:




 

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Shame I can't read the rest of it without paying. :(
 

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There is scant evidence to indicate that hurricanes, floods, tornadoes or drought have become more frequent or intense in the U.S. or globally. In fact we are in an era of good fortune when it comes to extreme weather.
Yup.
We find insufficient evidence to claim a statistical relationship between global temperature increase and normalized catastrophe losses.
And yup.
There is not a strong basis for connecting weather disasters with human-caused climate change.
Because sense.

Of note: it is pretty damn difficult these days to find these articles that focus on weather.
 
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Since beef production hasn't been a factor either. :p

In all seriousness, I think we can all agree that the climate is changing but, there is disagreement on how and why it's changing. Some people say it's humanity and some people say it's the natural evolution of the planet but, in reality, it's probably somewhere in between... but to say that the climate isn't changing is straight up false. I know people who have degrees in meteorology and what people don't understand is that our climate has so many factors that it's very hard to determine why something occurs because of all the other things a single change can impact. A small change can lead to other small changes which can lead to other small changes that eventually start a trend and identifying these things is very hard, so modelling them is even harder because you're trying to describe something without necessarily having a completely picture of the interactions in the atmosphere.

Either way, I leave this to the people who have dedicated their lives to studying it and attempting to understand it. Anyone who thinks they can simplify a complex problem that these people can't figure out completely themselves is merely delusional.

There is actually little to no disagreement on why the climate is changing, and I think part of the problem is that people seem to think there is some sort of in between ground when the reality is very different. To be clear no climate scientist would ever argue that the climate doesn't change on its own, but they would argue that there would always be a mechanism for a change to occur. The first steps when trying to explain why the climate is changing was by using the usual known causes. For example here is the current state of what it looks like in the most broad stroke possible:

1. The solar radiance of the sun has remained relatively constant (this is your main energy in source naturally)
2. The upper atmosphere is actually cooling, only the troposphere is warming (that narrows down the possible range of where the changes are taking place)
3. The albedo of the earth at the frequencies that CO2 reflects light is changing, so less energy at those wave lengths are being released into space. So less energy is being reflected back through the upper atmosphere. (Identifying where the missing energy is going)

The basis behind the science is actually an energy in/out problem. The devil is in the details. The given scenario says that we have to be warming, the variation in the climate models is from trying to take into account positive and negative feedback loops. Take for example there being little evidence of more powerful storms for example, it's such a broad definition to figure out and they are complex systems in their own right. While warmer waters might produce more powerful hurricanes, there could also be an increase in wind sheer that effectively cuts it off at the head. That being said, NASA says the following:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ClimateStorms/page2.php
"William Lau, a scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, concluded in a 2012 paper that rainfall totals from tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic have risen at a rate of 24 percent per decade since 1988. The increase in precipitation doesn’t just apply to rain. NOAA scientists have examined 120 years of data and found that there were twice as many extreme regional snowstorms between 1961 and 2010 as there were from 1900 to 1960."

So taking multiple factors into account I have yet to see a single explanation for global warming that satisfies the warming lower atmosphere temperatures, cooling upper atmosphere, changes of the earths albedo, no significant change in the suns radiance, and no significant change in the earths yaw/tilt. This is the general consensus view I just spit out to you and why that is the view being held.
 
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There is actually little to no disagreement on why the climate is changing
Myopic at best! Canada must sell the most Kick Ass set of blinders ever made! It looks like you must have 2 pairs? ;) See...comments like yours make me think you have very narrow paths of thought. I realize your guys are in your own bubble but, people just might think differently. That actually offends you? Right? Other people thinking a little differently. 'Tis bad.
 

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So taking multiple factors into account I have yet to see a single explanation for global warming that satisfies the warming lower atmosphere temperatures, cooling upper atmosphere, changes of the earths albedo, no significant change in the suns radiance, and no significant change in the earths yaw/tilt.
Urban areas warms lower atmosphere because of absorbing solar radiation and releasing it as heat that 100+ years ago was reflected.

Aircraft producing cirrus clouds reside in the upper troposphere which acts as a constant barrier between it and the upper atmosphere exaggerating the temperature differential.

Carbon dioxide may be the greatest factor but it is far from the only factor.
 
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Myopic at best! Canada must sell the most Kick Ass set of blinders ever made! It looks like you must have 2 pairs? ;) See...comments like yours make me think you have very narrow paths of thought. I realize your guys are in your own bubble but, people just might think differently. That actually offends you? Right? Other people thinking a little differently. 'Tis bad.

You really didn't read his followup to that, did you?

He never said it was certainly man made, he said it's an energy in/out problem. No scientist has legitimately disputed that simple fact, as it is measurable.
 

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Myopic at best! Canada must sell the most Kick Ass set of blinders ever made! It looks like you must have 2 pairs? ;) See...comments like yours make me think you have very narrow paths of thought. I realize your guys are in your own bubble but, people just might think differently. That actually offends you? Right? Other people thinking a little differently. 'Tis bad.
I think it's time for you to take a break from this thread, you appear now unable to post here without attitude or insult.
 

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Being heretical merely means going against the normal perceived or accepted ideology. It infers no status.
Unfortunately, labeling yourself as a heretic is an active positioning of 'down trodden' in an attempt to garner underdog status.
 
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Urban areas warms lower atmosphere because of absorbing solar radiation and releasing it as heat that 100+ years ago was reflected.

Aircraft producing cirrus clouds reside in the upper troposphere which acts as a constant barrier between it and the upper atmosphere exaggerating the temperature differential.

Carbon dioxide may be the greatest factor but it is far from the only factor.


Those are definitely factors, however they are orders of magnitude outside of the requirements to explain the effects. For example the urban heat effect doesn't come close to explaining the ocean heat content which is where most of the energy is being absorbed.



The problem with the cirrus clouds attempt at explanation is that they interact with a different wavelength than the loss of energy is showing.



Being heretical merely means going against the normal perceived or accepted ideology. It infers no status.
Unfortunately, labeling yourself as a heretic is an active positioning of 'down trodden' in an attempt to garner underdog status.

I strongly encourage everyone to actually find out who Dr Roger Pielke Jr actually is. The way he is being described seems to imply he's a climate researcher when he is actually a political scientist. The reason some scientists spoke out against him was that he was misquoting their work and suggesting the opposite of what their studies were claiming. To be clear his PhD is in political science. And the claim is that the researchers are trying to politicize the issue?
 

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I strongly encourage everyone to actually find out who Dr Roger Pielke Jr actually is. The way he is being described seems to imply he's a climate researcher when he is actually a political scientist. The reason some scientists spoke out against him was that he was misquoting their work and suggesting the opposite of what their studies were claiming. To be clear his PhD is in political science. And the claim is that the researchers are trying to politicize the issue?

"His interests include understanding the politicization of science; decision making under uncertainty; policy education for scientists in areas such as climate change, disaster mitigation, and world trade; and professional sports."

"Pielke earned a B.A. in mathematics (1990), an M.A. in public policy (1992), and a Ph.D. in political science, all from the University of Colorado Boulder."

"Pielke has also written extensively on climate change policy. He has written that he accepts the IPCC view of the underlying science, stating, "The IPCC has concluded that greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activity are an important driver of changes in climate. And on this basis alone I am personally convinced that it makes sense to take action to limit greenhouse gas emissions." He also states that, "Any conceivable emissions reductions policies, even if successful, cannot have a perceptible impact on the climate for many decades", and from this he concludes that, "In coming decades the only policies that can effectively be used to manage the immediate effects of climate variability and change will be adaptive.""

Even this PoliSci major "has written that he accepts the IPCC view of the underlying science".
 

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Those are definitely factors, however they are orders of magnitude outside of the requirements to explain the effects. For example the urban heat effect doesn't come close to explaining the ocean heat content which is where most of the energy is being absorbed.



The problem with the cirrus clouds attempt at explanation is that they interact with a different wavelength than the loss of energy is showing.

Both warm the troposphere which in turn, heats the ocean. Said more accurately: heat transfers from the warmer of the two to the colder of the two.
 
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Both warm the troposphere which in turn, heats the ocean.

Yea but that doesn't really workout from a mathematics standpoint. Think of how extreme the heat island effect would have to be over such an incredibly massive area to make up for where 90%~ of the global heat uptake is going. A quick google shows that 3% of the earth is urbanized, which would require an incredible heat offset to affect the other 97% to that degree.

The effect of clouds can be measured by looking at the earths albedo. The below link has a ton of information on the matter and should clear up the attempt at a heat island or cirrus cloud explanation. The heat island effect wouldn't be much different than adjusting albedo for the area.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=84499
 

FordGT90Concept

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Yea but that doesn't really workout from a mathematics standpoint. Think of how extreme the heat island effect would have to be over such an incredibly massive area to make up for where 90%~ of the global heat uptake is going. A quick google shows that 3% of the earth is urbanized, which would require an incredible heat offset to affect the other 97% to that degree.
Think about how much heat a nuclear reactor like Devil's Canyon puts directly into the water.

The effect of clouds can be measured by looking at the earths albedo. The below link has a ton of information on the matter and should clear up the attempt at a heat island or cirrus cloud explanation. The heat island effect wouldn't be much different than adjusting albedo for the area.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=84499
I see correlation:


Areas of urbanization that also have massive amounts of agriculture tend to be blue. Areas of urbanization without agriculture tend to be blue.

Yeah, yeah, lots of...well, pretty much every kind of air pollutant comes off of cities.
 
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For the sake of fun lets look at Devils Canyon. It appears to be capable of an output of 18,000 GW-h per year. According to the EPA in relation to the above graph:

"an increase of 1 unit on this graph (1 x 1022 joules) is equal to approximately 18 times the total amount of energy used by all the people on Earth in a year.4"

And according to the IEA global power consumption was 157,485 TW-h in 2013. So now we have a few numbers that we can work with here we can say that it would take 8749.16 Devils Canyons to supply all forms of energy for humanity for the year of 2013. So in order to cause the oceans to tick up a single 1e+22 joule of energy would require 157,485 Devil's Canyons with a 100% efficient heat pump going into the ocean. In addition to that, the assumption would be that the ocean also isn't radiating out that additional energy as well so the amount of energy required would be far far greater.

Onto the next point, you shouldn't see too much correlation as the paper specifically stated that:

"The maps above show how the reflectivity of Earth—the amount of sunlight reflected back into space—changed between March 1, 2000, and December 31, 2011. This global picture of reflectivity (also called albedo) appears to be a muddle, with different areas reflecting more or less sunlight over the 12-year record. Shades of blue mark areas that reflected more sunlight over time (increasing albedo), and orange areas denote less reflection (lower albedo).

Taken across the planet, no significant global trend appears. As noted in the anomaly plot below, global albedo rose and fell in different years, but did not necessarily head in either direction for long."

So basically it appears to be a wash in terms of what the global albedo looks like in the past nearly 12 years although they do note that additional information is required.

Regardless if the issue was with the heat island effect or cirrus clouds it would have a much more visible impact. Basically neither of your proposed explanations hold up to measurements.
 

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I think we've gotten there.....
 
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