AMD to release 7nm Vega gaming card and a Polaris refresh by end of 2018?

[Mighty-Lu-Bu]

There have obviously been some pretty big rumors flying around about AMD and their GPU plans. Vega was given a pretty lukewarm reception especially since it did not surpass a GTX 1080ti which a lot of people were anticipating. Anyways, the biggest rumor is that by the end of 2018 (which is in two months), AMD is going to be releasing a 7nm Vega gaming card. A lot of hardware reviews were a bit puzzled by Nvidia's RTX release because it seemingly came out of no where; some are speculating that the reason Nvidia released their RTX lineup is because they were anticipating something big from AMD. Back in June at Computex 2018, when asked about a new GPU lineup, Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang firmly said that there would not be a new GPU lineup for a "very long time". To come in at a competitive price point, AMD would most likely have to ditch thier HBM which has been proven to be extremely expensive to make (there is also a supply issue with HBM). This actually isn't too far fetched because AMD made a Vega variant for a gaming console that used GDDR5 instead of HBM2. In addition, at the end of last year there were numerous reports that AMD was going to be moving away from HBM2 to GDDR6 for future GPUs. The below video is pure speculation, but the author has been right about rumors before:

There has also been some rumors about AMD doing another refresh of the Polaris lineup which would provide even better performance.

What do you think about these rumors? Do you think AMD could actually release some new gaming GPUs this year in the form of a 7nm Vega GPU and a new Polaris refresh? The way I look at things, this be the only way AMD would still be able to remain competitive with Nvidia.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Polaris 20, 12nm shrink of Polaris 10. Not much performance improvement but better thermals/power consumption.

Vega 12. Maybe something like a Vega 48.

Vega 20, 7nm shrink of Vega 10 that's targeted at high performance computing. It could theoretically take on RTX in compute.

Nothing too exciting coming from AMD on the gaming front until next year. Navi is AMD's next big gaming GPU launch.

 

[Mighty-Lu-Bu]

Polaris 20, 12nm shrink of Polaris 10. Not much performance improvement but better thermals/power consumption.

Vega 12. Maybe something like a Vega 48.

Vega 20, 7nm shrink of Vega 10 that's targeted at high performance computing. It could theoretically take on RTX in compute.

Nothing too exciting coming from AMD on the gaming front until next year. Navi is AMD's next big gaming GPU launch.

They could make a Vega 20 gaming variant- that's what the speculation is all about right now. The Navi cards will not even be announced until March of next year and they most likely won't release until summer of 2019 which is a long time away. In the meantime AMD will have nothing to compete with Nvidia's GTX line which is seeing huge price drops thanks to RTX. If they made a gaming version of Vega 20 that outclassed a GTX 1080ti that was featured at a competitive price, then AMD would continue to get market share as Nvidia will have nothing to compete against Vega 20. After watching the video it just makes sense: If they go this route and release the card for under $550, Nvidia wouldn't have much of an answer.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Why would they sell them for $600 when they could sell them for $2000+? 7nm volume isn't enough to justify making a gaming SKU too, especially with a gaming-centric architecture on the way.

AMD can compete in terms of price and that's really all they need to do.

 

[Vayra86]

Why would they sell them for $600 when they could sell them for $2000+? 7nm volume isn't enough to justify making a gaming SKU too, especially with a gaming-centric architecture on the way.

AMD can compete in terms of price and that's really all they need to do.

This

/thread

 

[Mighty-Lu-Bu]

Why would they sell them for $600 when they could sell them for $2000+? 7nm volume isn't enough to justify making a gaming SKU too, especially with a gaming-centric architecture on the way.

Think about it, the MSRP for a GTX 1080ti is $699 and the lowest price I have seen was in the low $600s and the highest prices I have seen are pushing $800. If AMD released a Vega 20 gaming variant that was 7nm that actually beat the GTX 1080ti, but came in around the mid $500s then it would be very hard for Nvidia to react. I can't see Nvidia dropping the price of a GTX 1080ti by $150...

 

[cucker tarlson]

Vega is a HPC card based on compute-oriented architecture. 7nm Vega ain't coming to gamers soon if at any time in the future at all. Please understand what I've been trying to get across to you for the last 2 days,the goal of a company is to maximize profts. I think that AMD themselves must consider selling 7nm Vega to gamers as their last resort,in case navi flops,which it probably won't.

 

[Mighty-Lu-Bu]

Vega is a HPC card based on compute-oriented architecture. 7nm Vega ain't coming to gamers soon if at any time in the future at all. Please understand what I've been trying to get across to you for the last 2 days,the goal of a company is to maximize profts.

Yeah and they wound maximize profits by a Polaris refresh which would handle the mid range market and a 7nm Vega which would handle the high end. This would hold AMD over until Navi is released...

AMD has said on multiple occasions that it wants to release gaming cards every year and since Vega was released in the summer of last year, it would make sense that they would close out the year with a high end variant. I suggest that everyone actually watch the video because it gives a lot of really good information.

 

[cucker tarlson]

No,the guys above already explained it.

 

[Mighty-Lu-Bu]

No,the guys above already explained it.

They haven't explained anything or even watched the video. All they said is AMD won't and that's the end of story. AMD hasn't released any gaming GPUs this year and they have made it very clear that they want to release gaming GPUs every year. With everything that happened with Vega, do you honestly think that AMD is going to just do another Polaris refresh and call it a day? Why not dominate the mid range market with a Polaris refresh and then dominate the high end market with a new Vega? Nvida's RTX cards are going to be adopted slow so AMD actually has a pretty big opportunity here to eat away at Nvidia's market share.

Obviously the big obstacle of a 7nm Vega gaming GPU releasing this year is that AMD would have to move away from HBM2 which is entirely possible. They already made a Vega variant for an Asian gaming console that used GDDR5 instead of HBM2 and there were numerous reports last year that AMD might completely move away from HMB2 and go to GDDR6 because of the high production costs of HMB2 and the availability. These reports of AMD moving away from HBM2 came at the end of last year and well after Vega was released. The more you break it down, the more it actually makes sense and I think it would be a good move for AMD.

 

[cucker tarlson]

do you honestly think that AMD is going to just do another Polaris refresh and call it a day?

Yes.Until navi comes.

 

[Mighty-Lu-Bu]

Yes.Until navi comes.

Based on what evidence? Remember, last year AMD released both a Polaris refresh and Vega- perhaps they will do another Polaris refresh this year with yet another Vega release.

 

[cdawall]

If the 7nm shrink is enough to half the power consumption AMD could double the shader count of the 580 double the bus width and give us a gddr6 based 512bit card that is essentially what I wish vega 64 had been. It would still be expensive though and the 512bit memory bus would cause its own world of issues. Still looking at a hot, high power card at the end of the day and assuming the clock bump is in the 15-20% range we would just barely edge into 1080ti performance.

 

[cucker tarlson]

Based on what evidence do you see a 7nm gaming vega ?

https://www.techpowerup.com/247006/amd-7nm-vega-by-december-not-a-die-shrink-of-vega-10

AMD at its Computex event confirmed that "Vega 20" will build Radeon Instinct and Radeon Pro graphics cards, and that it has no plans to bring it to the client-segment.

 

[Mighty-Lu-Bu]

If the 7nm shrink is enough to half the power consumption AMD could double the shader count of the 580 double the bus width and give us a gddr6 based 512bit card that is essentially what I wish vega 64 had been. It would still be expensive though and the 512bit memory bus would cause its own world of issues. Still looking at a hot, high power card at the end of the day and assuming the clock bump is in the 15-20% range we would just barely edge into 1080ti performance.

AMD is already working on a 7nm Vega and they said the shrink at the minimum would give a 35% performance increase. In the video I posted above, they have said that 35% is pretty conservative and it would most likely be closer to 50%. It is definitely possibly, but a lot would have to happen...

Based on what evidence do you see a 7nm gaming vega ?

Watch the video, then get back to me because the video breaks down everything.

 

[cucker tarlson]

they said they'll be selling them to hpc and pro-sumer market themselves !

 

[Joss]

Why would they sell them for $600 when they could sell them for $2000+?

If they'd follow that narrow reasoning there wouldn't be Vegas for gamers.
They have to keep their presence in the gaming market even at the cost of lesser returns. A 7nm gaming Vega is a possibility.

 

[Mighty-Lu-Bu]

If they'd follow that narrow reasoning there wouldn't be Vegas for gamers.
They have to keep their presence in the gaming market even at the cost of lesser returns. A 7nm gaming Vega is a possibility.

They don't have to sell them for $2000+.... that's what these people don't understand.

 

[cdawall]

AMD is already working on a 7nm Vega and they said the shrink at the minimum would give a 35% performance increase. In the video I posted above, they have said that 35% is pretty conservative and it would most likely be closer to 50%. It is definitely possibly, but a lot would have to happen...

The video feels like click bait routed in more guesses than even I made.

 

[Mighty-Lu-Bu]

The video feels like click bait routed in more guesses than even I made.

It's a speculation video for sure, but its based on what AMD has said at press conferences and the technologies that they are known to be developing.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

This thread has all, known information regarding product launches:
https://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/TechPowerUp/Future_Hardware_Releases/

The fact everyone is fighting over 7nm wafers at TSMC is very limiting.

There is only Vega 20 (high performance computing) and Navi confirmed by AMD.

 

[Mighty-Lu-Bu]

This thread has all, known information regarding product launches:
https://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/TechPowerUp/Future_Hardware_Releases/

The fact everyone is fighting over 7nm wafers at TSMC is very limiting.

There is only Vega 20 (high performance computing) and Navi confirmed by AMD.

Vega 20 (high performance computing) sounds a lot like RTX...

 

[FordGT90Concept]

No, it sounds like a die shrunk Vega Founder Edition. Because that is what it is.

 

[Vayra86]

Vega 20 (high performance computing) sounds a lot like RTX...

No it sounds and looks like you are once again very selective in how you absorb your information. It happened in another related topic no less than a day ago and its basically exactly the same things being said just with a new angle.

Either you dont get it or you really dont want to get it. My money is on number two... OK you think (or rather want) a completely non competitive repeat of Fury/Vega versus more efficient Nvidia options, we get it. But it aint happening and Im glad its not. AMD would only piss away more money.

One last thing. "Watch the video" doesnt change reality. If people have sound arguments, the business is already miles ahead of that. To think some stupid Tuber knows the market better is absurd. There have been more of these videos blatantly wrong than there are reliable ones. Just. Please.Stahp!

 

[happita]

No, it sounds like a die shrunk Vega Frontier Edition. Because that is what it is.

Precisely. I don't know why anyone would think otherwise.