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GPU availability: bad news for gamers

qubit

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Extra patience required. Sigh.

 
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TSMC's investor call just happened, and they mentioned they're expecting chip shortages to continue throughout the year and possibly into 2022.
Also, while production is increasing (opening new fabs), that process takes years and won't be in time to meet demand until the shortage is expected to cease in 2022 anyway.

Nothing new to us, just official confirmation from TSMC of what we all were speculating.
 

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Yeah, nothing new
 
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Fabs take a few years to be built. Duh. So 2022 to 2023 until it can get better.
From the horses mouth: 2/4/2021


I've been working in a US chip FAB for over twenty years now, and they are not just an assembly-line you can throw together and start printing money with.

1. You use a metric butt-load of electricity, so you need to site the plant where you can lock-in good rates for it. After all these years, it still boggles my mind that we have so many production tools - I'm looking at you, Diffusion and EPI reactors - which IDLE at 700C to 900C.

1a. And have fun if your power isn't reliable. A power "bump" can abort a batch-process Diffusion furnace, and there goes 150 of your wafers into scrap. Watch your bean-counters heads explode every time that happens.
:)
The last two we had - I sh$t you not - were when Facilities was testing the hand-off between our power back-up systems.

Oh, and if it was an LP-CVD tool that was affected, and the chamber got dusted, you also get to eat the lost production time for doing a quartz change, and time to run quals to get the tool back into production. And those pesky batch tools can have a couple of 6 -to- 8-hour processes to run to pass quals - so your affected tools can be down for a day or two.

2. As you are building the plant, you have to maintain/enforce cleanliness protocols so that you can have an acceptable chance of meeting cleanroom requirements required in the functioning FAB.

3. You use all kinds of industrial gases & chemicals, so you need to site the plant where you can have reliable supply of bulk materials - so if you don't have Praxair, Air Liquide, etc nearby your costs are going to be higher. e.g. My employer has a deal with our supplier that has a Nitrogen concentrator installed & running on-site, and the supplier gets to sell any excess N2 to their other nearby customers.

4. Clean water. We use tons of DI water, so you have to build that supply system into .....

Aw screw it. I don't feel like writing a wall of text.

There is a lot going on in running a FAB, even after you've paid out the nose to build a huge cleanroom space, run all the needed support gases and fluids to each tool, and paid out the nose to have expensive production tools installed and processes qualified for production.

Hazardous materials out the wazoo... most every acid you've ever heard of... Hydroflouric (HF) is my personal fave...

Chlorine (in its' own 'bunker'), Hydrogen, Silane (pyrophoric!), - scared me when we got a new tool using Nitric Oxide (NO) a few years ago, and I overheard a couple of Process guys joking about sneaking back behind the tool to huff a little - because they were thinking it was Nitrous Oxide (NO2). I interrupted them to say they were mistaken, and huffing on any NO would be the last thing they would ever do...

Hell, just DI is dangerous when there are ignorant workers around. e.g I had an operator in CMP who had to be convinced that it was bad for them to be refilling their water bottle with DI from a sink in the FAB ...

TL:DR So yeah, a wall of text anyway... Fabs are expensive to build, staff, and run - and they only make economic sense - due to all the fixed costs for electricity, DI water, and gases (N2) which are required even when the FAB is "idle" - to be running 24/7/365
 

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This is why I tell people to not listen to anything Mr Huang says about shortages will end in Quarter X 2021 because the goal post keeps moving. The shortages certainly won't end this year as Mr Huang has said they would.

The best advice I can give anyone is to take good care of the card that you have.
 
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So I guess more price rises are on the cards to pay for all that stuff.
 
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Don't bite my head off here but I recently read (And stupidly didn't bookmark) an artice that claims this.

'Taiwanese farmers have been subsidised by the government not to grow rice and have the water directed to the chip factories'

Would be good to hunt it down for further analysis.
 
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Hmm. Reading that now makes me question whether the US administration can magically migrate semiconductor business, especially TSMC to come here. With the additional cost of labor, regulation, union and further away from manual labor intensive assembly hubs, I dont know whether it makes economy sense to do so.
 
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Don't bite my head off here but I recently read (And stupidly didn't bookmark) an artice that claims this.

'Taiwanese farmers have been subsidised by the government not to grow rice and have the water directed to the chip factories'

Would be good to hunt it down for further analysis.
I believe it, they were trucking water in due to a shortage.
 

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I believe it, they were trucking water in due to a shortage.





me and @TheLostSwede been talking about this recently actually. here some links from our convo
 
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me and @TheLostSwede been talking about this recently actually. here some links from our convo
I recall people telling me of future water shortages back in the 80's. We all thought that big hole in the Ozone was to blame. Guess not.
 
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Hmm. Reading that now makes me question whether the US administration can magically migrate semiconductor business, especially TSMC to come here. With the additional cost of labor, regulation, union and further away from manual labor intensive assembly hubs, I dont know whether it makes economy sense to do so.
It makes Political sense though, to have vital manufacturing industries.
 

Space Lynx

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I recall people telling me of future water shortages back in the 80's. We all thought that big hole in the Ozone was to blame. Guess not.

I think the scientists underestimate how much consumption 7.5 billion humans use.

It makes Political sense though, to have vital manufacturing industries.

from a security standpoint i agree ya.
 

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With 4 unskippable regurgitated to death ads and thankfully 2 skippable product placements inside most videos are unwatchable nowadays. it's a real fight to get to the content. and the content is just bad news only good for english lessons, but only if they stopped giggling like mad men all the time in the live shows. but people seem to like that. the year is 2023 get over it, same content. all influencers should hide their faces. Now eth breaking all sanity levels I'm completely losing all hope.
 
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With 4 unskippable regurgitated to death ads and thankfully 2 skippable product placements inside most videos are unwatchable nowadays. it's a real fight to get to the content. and the content is just bad news only good for english lessons, but only if they stopped giggling like mad men all the time in the live shows. but people seem to like that. the year is 2023 get over it, same content. Now eth breaking all sanity levels I'm completely llsin all hope.
There are alternative sources for this type of content. You don't have to suffer ;)
 
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Also, would it be nice for all of us who post a video link to include a TL;DW? @qubit

Just dropping a video link with 0 written text sucks, all those youtuber videos are designed for monitization (super long to feed youtube algorithm). Sucks for the reader / watcher. I dont want to waste time.
 

qubit

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Also, would it be nice for all of us who post a video link to include a TL;DW? @qubit

Just dropping a video link with 0 written text sucks, all those youtuber videos are designed for monitization (super long to feed youtube algorithm). Sucks for the reader / watcher. I dont want to waste time.
I did write something. Together with the title it's quite enough. I could easily post a video with only a title and no text and that would be fine, too.

I found the video interesting from a major YouTuber on the tech scene and hence posted it. If people don't wanna watch it, don't have a go at me and give me all this TLDW crap. Just don't watch it and move on.
 

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From the horses mouth: 2/4/2021


I've been working in a US chip FAB for over twenty years now, and they are not just an assembly-line you can throw together and start printing money with.

1. You use a metric butt-load of electricity, so you need to site the plant where you can lock-in good rates for it. After all these years, it still boggles my mind that we have so many production tools - I'm looking at you, Diffusion and EPI reactors - which IDLE at 700C to 900C.

1a. And have fun if your power isn't reliable. A power "bump" can abort a batch-process Diffusion furnace, and there goes 150 of your wafers into scrap. Watch your bean-counters heads explode every time that happens.
:)
The last two we had - I sh$t you not - were when Facilities was testing the hand-off between our power back-up systems.

Oh, and if it was an LP-CVD tool that was affected, and the chamber got dusted, you also get to eat the lost production time for doing a quartz change, and time to run quals to get the tool back into production. And those pesky batch tools can have a couple of 6 -to- 8-hour processes to run to pass quals - so your affected tools can be down for a day or two.

2. As you are building the plant, you have to maintain/enforce cleanliness protocols so that you can have an acceptable chance of meeting cleanroom requirements required in the functioning FAB.

3. You use all kinds of industrial gases & chemicals, so you need to site the plant where you can have reliable supply of bulk materials - so if you don't have Praxair, Air Liquide, etc nearby your costs are going to be higher. e.g. My employer has a deal with our supplier that has a Nitrogen concentrator installed & running on-site, and the supplier gets to sell any excess N2 to their other nearby customers.

4. Clean water. We use tons of DI water, so you have to build that supply system into .....

Aw screw it. I don't feel like writing a wall of text.

There is a lot going on in running a FAB, even after you've paid out the nose to build a huge cleanroom space, run all the needed support gases and fluids to each tool, and paid out the nose to have expensive production tools installed and processes qualified for production.

Hazardous materials out the wazoo... most every acid you've ever heard of... Hydroflouric (HF) is my personal fave...

Chlorine (in its' own 'bunker'), Hydrogen, Silane (pyrophoric!), - scared me when we got a new tool using Nitric Oxide (NO) a few years ago, and I overheard a couple of Process guys joking about sneaking back behind the tool to huff a little - because they were thinking it was Nitrous Oxide (NO2). I interrupted them to say they were mistaken, and huffing on any NO would be the last thing they would ever do...

Hell, just DI is dangerous when there are ignorant workers around. e.g I had an operator in CMP who had to be convinced that it was bad for them to be refilling their water bottle with DI from a sink in the FAB ...

TL:DR So yeah, a wall of text anyway... Fabs are expensive to build, staff, and run - and they only make economic sense - due to all the fixed costs for electricity, DI water, and gases (N2) which are required even when the FAB is "idle" - to be running 24/7/365
Yep, indeed most folks have no idea how complex a fab plant is. I also spent a year and a half onsite at one and the constant deconstruction and retooling going on of production buildings and clean rooms is amazing. The number of chemicals and hazmat and special cooling/ water is also mind-boggling. There is nothing quick about the process of increasing production or starting a new run of a chip design. People will need to be patient.
 
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I did write something. Together with the title it's quite enough. I could easily post a video with only a title and no text and that would be fine, too.

I found the video interesting from a major YouTuber on the tech scene and hence posted it. If people don't wanna watch it, don't have a go at me and give me all this TLDW crap. Just don't watch it and move on.
Got to admit his *Eye* fixit plugs are hilarious :D

Yep, indeed most folks have no idea how complex a fab plant is. I also spent a year and a half onsite at one and the constant deconstruction and retooling going on of production buildings and clean rooms is amazing. The number of chemicals and hazmat and special cooling/ water is also mind-boggling. There is nothing quick about the process of increasing production or starting a new run of a chip design. People will need to be patient.
I think the short lifespan (Cough, give us more cash) in hardware is putting huge pressure on these plants to churn out goods at a sometimes unreasonable rates.
In short, I think we are spoilt and don't realize it until times like these.
 
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People are going to have to buy pre built systems if they want the higher end 3000 series GPU's by the look of things. :(
laughs in not caring about Ampere cards
In short, I think we are spoilt and don't realize it until times like these.
I frequent the LTT forums, and it's really fun to watch the threads about "how to fix GPU shortages", "how to stop miners from buying all the GPUs", "miners are bad because GPUs are for gaming", etc.
As someone put it, "This shortage has brought to light the obscene amount of 'gamer entitlement' that people have."
 
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