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1 in 8 Chance of Catastrophic Solar Megastorm by 2020

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twilyth

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I already posted this on GN but I should have posted it here. Please delete from GN if appropriate.

full story - read the whole article if you can. Scary but interesting.


The Earth has a roughly 12 percent chance of experiencing an enormous megaflare erupting from the sun in the next decade. This event could potentially cause trillions of dollars’ worth of damage and take up to a decade to recover from.

Such an extreme event is considered to be relatively rare. The last gigantic solar storm, known as the Carrington Event, occurred more than 150 years ago and was the most powerful such event in recorded history.

That a rival to this event might have a greater than 10 percent chance of happening in the next 10 years was surprising to space physicist Pete Riley, senior scientist at Predictive Science in San Diego, California, who published the estimate in Space Weather on Feb. 23.

“Even if it’s off by a factor of two, that’s a much larger number than I thought,” he said.
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But such possibilities likely represent only the worst-case scenario, said Robert Rutledge, lead of the forecast office at the NOAA/National Weather Service Space Weather Prediction Center. The potential dangers might be significantly less, since power companies are aware of such problems and can take action to mitigate them.

For instance, companies may store power in areas where little damage is expected or bring on additional lines to help with power overloads. This is assuming, of course, that they are given enough warning as to the time and location of a solar storm’s impact on the Earth. Satellites relatively close to Earth are required to measure the exact strength and orientation of a storm.

“It’s like being able to see a cyclone coming but not knowing the wind speed until it hits your boat 50 miles off the coast,” Rutledge said.
 

dorsetknob

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Dorset where else eh? >>> Thats ENGLAND<<<
this is "" Proper Science"" (not creationist crap) and yeh its in the right place
Space weather is a ""Branch of Science"" that has only recently provoked interest and research
Space weather was pretty much ignored prior to Sputnik 1(late 50s )
it was mans attempt to put machines and men(and women) + other lifeforms into space that necessitated the expansion of research into space weather (including archivel reserch).
 
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Completely Bonkers

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How long would such a flare be "hitting" the earth? Let's hope just a few hours, at a time when I'll be in bed on the dark side of the earth, as the sun cleans up some of those "freedom serving ex-colonies" that are causing so much worldwide unpeace ;)

Option 2
Dig a bunker
 

dorsetknob

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Dorset where else eh? >>> Thats ENGLAND<<<
Carrington Event
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859
in theory these events can last for weeks ( most solar flares so far have only affected earth for days)
as a side note the aurora borealis (or the northern lights), and aurora australis (or the southern lights) are the most common visual sign of space weather visible from earth
 

the54thvoid

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Carrington Event
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859
in theory these events can last for weeks ( most solar flares so far have only affected earth for days)
as a side note the aurora borealis (or the northern lights), and aurora australis (or the southern lights) are the most common visual sign of space weather visible from earth

Yeah, it's well established that solar flares and coronal mass ejections are a ticking bomb. There would be no issue other than the fact we're so utterly reliant on electricity and technology.

I'm sure i saw a government scientist on TV just recently talking about the need for prediction and EM shielding being put in place. Like so many other 'real' catastrophic events, our governments seem loathe to spend any money on actually doing anything to prevent it.

The best defence is a total grid shutdown during such an event but by their very nature their impact is very unpredictable.
 
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Will this have like an EMP effect on computers? Should I build a faraday cage around the house? or the PC at least.
 

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No. Tin foil tuque is enough
 

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who comes up with this crap? 1 in 8 chance? by 2020? lmao. the doomsayers must be bored.
 
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Will this have like an EMP effect on computers? Should I build a faraday cage around the house? or the PC at least.

Yes, like EMP, on any kind of electrical circuit. The Carrington event energized telegraph lines allowing their use without having to input any current:

Telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed, in some cases even shocking telegraph operators.[5] Telegraph pylons threw sparks and telegraph paper spontaneously caught fire.[6] Some telegraph systems appeared to continue to send and receive messages despite having been disconnected from their power supplies.[7]

^from the previously mentioned Wikipedia article.

Yes, I suppose a Faraday cage would work, although you would have to be completely off-grid to fully insulate yourself. Seriously though, it may happen, but it's not likely to happen.
 
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twilyth

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But what if it hits us at an oblique angle? I'm going to have to glue tuques all over my case.
You would need a Faraday cage in any event is my guess. A cage uses fine, insulated wire woven into a mesh. When charged particle or an EM field hits the mesh, it induces a current in the wires. That is then discharged to ground via a grounding wire.
 

cadaveca

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who comes up with this crap? 1 in 8 chance? by 2020? lmao. the doomsayers must be bored.

A Scientist? With a name of Pete Riley? :laugh: Sucker.


The sun is at a "low cycle", with little activity. What's interesting to note is that with global warming, noone seems to mention that the the sun is in a low period, with low activity, and as such, isn't hurtling as much matter and heat at us. The next cycle should be quite a bit warmer.

Of course, this data is tracked:



By looking at the above picture, which shows solar activity(which is based on an 11-year cycle, apparantly), you can easily see that solar activity for the past 6 years is fairly low. However, becuase it's a 11-year cycle, we stil lahve 5 years to go before it should be much more active again.

And with this heightened activity, comes the greater chance for more "extreme" events.

It's a 1 in 8 chance...in otherwords, 12.5%. Hardly a likely chance, nor is it "doomsday mongering"
 

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A Scientist? With a name of Pete Riley? :laugh: Sucker.


The sun is at a "low cycle", with little activity. What's interesting to note is that with global warming, noone seems to mention that the the sun is in a low period, with low activity, and as such, isn't hurtling as much matter and heat at us. The next cycle should be quite a bit warmer.

Of course, this data is tracked:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/Ap.gif

By looking at the above picture, which shows solar activity(which is based on an 11-year cycle, apparantly), you can easily see that solar activity for the past 6 years is fairly low. However, becuase it's a 11-year cycle, we stil lahve 5 years to go before it should be much more active again.

And with this heightened activity, comes the greater chance for more "extreme" events.

It's a 1 in 8 chance...in otherwords, 12.5%. Hardly a likely chance, nor is it "doomsday mongering"

i have tracked the data for my farts over the past 10 years and have also concurred that there is a 1 in 8 chance that my farts will cause a mega storm by 2020! see, anyone can make these types of claims when there is such a small chance of it happening. that is what makes them doomsayers. fun stuff to read on forums but hardly worthy of any scientific discussion.
 
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twilyth

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i have tracked the data for my farts over the past 10 years and have also concurred that there is a 1 in 8 chance that my farts will cause a mega storm by 2020! see, anyone can make these types of claims when there is such a small chance of it happening. that is what makes them doomsayers. fun stuff to read on forums but hardly worthy of any scientific discussion.
Perhaps you underestimate your . . . ummm . . . 'abilities.' Yeah. Let call that an 'ability.' :D
 

cadaveca

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1 in 8 chance

But it's a scientist!


:laugh:


Actually I agree. Thing is that "1 in 8" thing. It's has nothing to do with chance, or it being a small number. Usually, that "X of X" implies that the results have been selected from a larger group. The subject matter doesn't matter, but in statistics, that's how you manipulate numbers to your advantage.

I just find it funny you call it fear-mongering because it's a small number. Basically society itself is based upon "possibilities", no matter how likely. Chances of getting into a car accident on the way to work are very low, yet still people must pass testing and follow traffic laws, which were developed in order to make chances of accident less likely. The only way to make things NOT be a problem, is through discussion, planning, and prevention. Doesn't have ANYTHING to do with fear-mongering.

It's agreed seemingly by the scientific community, that's it's a real possibility. So tlaking about real things, no matter how unlikely, is fear-mongering? I don't get it. The article even says "this only represents the worst-case scenario"...
 
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It's a paragraph backed up with 0 research or fact from the link posted as such I take it with a bucket load of salt, and knocking out power grids for a few weeks/months even although it would have a very big effect, wouldn't class as catastrophic, not like a 50 mile wide meteor hitting the earth or god forbid our sun turning into a red dwarf as posted by someone earlier this week (can't seem to find it now?)

Do love doomsday theories though :D
 
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