Am I the only one dreading 2021 hardware availability, pricing, etc.?

[birdie]

No upgrades for me in 2021 for these reasons:

• I'm not satisfied with the NVIDIA RTX 3000 series that I planned to upgrade to due to thermals (all cards have an insane TBP and my absolute limit has always been ~150W).
• I'm very dissatisfied with the AMD Ryzen 5000 CPUs pricing and the non-availability of a 3700X successor. Again, don't want a CPU with a TDP above 100W. A 5700X would be great but it hasn't even been rumored at this point.

Again this is a poll among/for mad enthusiasts who are gaming at 4K OLED HDR+ @360Hz and I'm a mere mortal with a 24" 1080p 60Hz monitor and a 1660 Ti which runs everything at 1080p beautifully.

 

[Hugis]

Gona keep trucking with my trusty 4770k and my 1080ti.....

 

[FireFox]

TBP

Did you mean TDP?

 

[birdie]

I meant Total Board Power which is better suited for GPUs as they are not isolated pieces of silicon like CPUs.

 

[Vayra86]

While I see where you're coming from, that's a rather odd understanding of "planning", necessarily including changing your plans dramatically and on relatively short notice depending on market conditions. How can you know well in advance if pricing is going to be right or availability will be there? Of course previously we have been able to assume this to be okay at most times, but that's obviously changed now. A lot of people were planning to buy a $699 3080 after it was announced (or a $499 3070), yet have been entirely unable to do so. There are clear limits to how much one can plan for, after all. Saying "If the price isn't right and/or the product isn't available, I'm not planning an upgrade." assumes these things can be known beforehand, and I assume you aren't actually prescient, so either you would then be retroactively denying having ever made a plan, or you would have been forced to change your plans by outside forces. Obviously starting from a privileged position like what you describe makes being flexible with planning easier, but it doesn't negate the effects of outside forces on planning and decisionmaking.


That is definitely the case for a lot of people, but sales numbers definitely say otherwise. As an example, unemployment in the US has been between 7-8% in recent months. That's high, but that still leaves >90% of the workforce employed. A lot of those still employed will of course either be suffering a lot of insecurity due to the possibility of losing their jobs or from others around them doing so (or just from reduced hours etc.), but in a high income country like the US where a large portion of the population has a lot of disposable income and is suddenly in lockdown, it's still reasonable to predict an uptick in high-cost at-home devices. That obviously doesn't change just how horrible this situation has been and continues to be for the still large proportion of the population that have been struck by this in some way, but another depressing part of this equation is that low-income households are by far the most likely to be harmed by this, as they typically have both the least job security, the highest risk of falling ill, and the worst healthcare. But they are also the least likely to be buying DIY PCs to begin with. If anything, crises like the current one highlights and exacerbates class distinctions and economic disparity.


I've been in that boat since ... 2018? I bought my Fury X planning for a 3+ year life-span and have continuously found good reasons to hold off - and I'm extremely happy with how long it's lasted me - but obviously this supply crunch is coming at pretty much the worst possible time. I've been holding off playing a few games for a year or more in anticipation of a GPU upgrade (I want Control and Metro Exodus with RT, among other things), so the pieces were finally coming together for me ... until they suddenly disappeared


I agree with a lot of what you're saying here, though as mentioned above there are still some AAA titles I want to play. I'm also in the bind of having a 1440p monitor (which looks terrible at 1080p, for the record - it likely has a garbage scaler given that it's from 2011) which does somewhat force my hand into higher end GPUs (or playing at 720p for 4:1 scaling). I'm actually hoping to get a 4k monitor in part due to the ability to run it at 1080p with 4:1 scaling - I use my monitor for work (lots and lots of on-screen text) so going below 1440p 27" is out of the question due to that, though for a pure gaming setup I'd probably want something like a 32" 1080p monitor. I bought my current GPU planning to keep it for a long time, and I plan for the same with the next upgrade, it's just that the timing right now couldn't be much worse for me, as I've reached the point where my GPU is very clearly a hindrance. I could of course upgrade to a lower-end GPU, which would still dramatically outperform my current one, but I don't want to mostly due to the much worse longevity of such a purchase.

The key point here is the value attributed to "planning". No. I dont "plan to buy" product that isnt on shelves, and I dont take an advance on what is being promised. Never did, never will, for anything that is clearly in the luxuries section.

So when Nv announced a 500 and 700 msrp Gpu, I waited until reviews came out - no plans whatsoever. If the offer was right, and the product in stock at the price I want it for, then I buy it. If not, I just dont. And if circumstances change and force me into a purchase (ex old GPU dead), I can always see what the next move might be.

Planning ahead on unreleased goods is just silly IMO. Its the same as ppl building a rig to 'be ready' for game X or Y... wtf are you doing.

 

[Sithaer]

I was planning a GPU upgrade in January from the second hand market in the ~350 at most 400$ range.

Something previous gen, idc about the new gen cards cause I knew before that they will be way out of my budget anyway.

Prices were more or less normal till late October/early November or so but at the time I did not have enough money saved up. 'only saving up from a home part time job cause reasons we know'

Now that I finally have that ammount of money to spend, I can't cause everything is either gone or way more expensive. 'no 2060s, no 5600 no 5700 heck rarely any 1660 supers and the price is just insane even when something shows up'

At the moment its like easier to find a new serie card in my country than older gen ~mid range but I guess thats because they are so damn expensive that not many can afford them and the ones who can already bought their new card.

Might be a moot point anyway cause lately I'm having some serious issues with my system and might have to RMA my mobo or buy a new one, still troubleshooting the issue.
What a great way to start the year.

 

[Valantar]

The key point here is the value attributed to "planning". No. I dont "plan to buy" product that isnt on shelves, and I dont take an advance on what is being promised. Never did, never will, for anything that is clearly in the luxuries section.

So when Nv announced a 500 and 700 msrp Gpu, I waited until reviews came out - no plans whatsoever. If the offer was right, and the product in stock at the price I want it for, then I buy it. If not, I just dont. And if circumstances change and force me into a purchase (ex old GPU dead), I can always see what the next move might be.

Planning ahead on unreleased goods is just silly IMO. Its the same as ppl building a rig to 'be ready' for game X or Y... wtf are you doing.

So in other words you have the flexibility to plan minimally, and rather act if and when you want to. That's a good position to be in, for sure. I think most of us have some sort of plan for how long we want/expect various parts of our PCs to last and start looking into the upgrade path a while before that time comes around, which inevitably leads to plans like "I'll likely be getting the next xx60-level Nvidia GPU once it launches". Whether that's down to hardware fetishism or "need" (as in your current hardware no longer performing as required) is of course highly variable and with a lot of gray area - I definitely oscillate between the two quite a lot, though I try to recognize when my upgrades are purely motivated by hardware fetishism just to avoid wasting money . Staying in the flagship/halo performance range mostly removes the "need" part of those considerations (though there are always people complaining that the best GPU out there isn't acceptably performant for them!), leaving you the luxury of choosing what to upgrade and when based on other factors. As I said, a good position to be in, but not one available to most of us

I was planning a GPU upgrade in January from the second hand market in the ~350 at most 400$ range.

Something previous gen, idc about the new gen cards cause I knew before that they will be way out of my budget anyway.

Prices were more or less normal till late October/early November or so but at the time I did not have enough money saved up. 'only saving up from a home part time job cause reasons we know'

Now that I finally have that ammount of money to spend, I can't cause everything is either gone or way more expensive. 'no 2060s, no 5600 no 5700 heck rarely any 1660 supers and the price is just insane even when something shows up'

At the moment its like easier to find a new serie card in my country than older gen ~mid range but I guess thats because they are so damn expensive that not many can afford it and the ones who can already bought one.

Might be a moot point anyway cause lately I'm having some serious issues with my system and might have to RMA my mobo or buy a new one, still troubleshooting the issue.
What a great way to start the year.

Damn, that sounds like a bummer for sure, one letdown after another. I really hope my pessimism is wrong and things start improving.

 

[Vayra86]

So in other words you have the flexibility to plan minimally

Everybody does. Its only in your own mind that this is somehow not possible. This way of life / approach / conviction is available to everyone and best of all, its free and in stock!

People want too much, usually also for their own wallets. Some cultures & countries more than others, but most people share this trait. I do too... but I recognize it, and try to place it in perspective. Its a luxury item, simple, and that ends any sensible discussion on 'need' then and there. And to be fair, fighting that reality is another sign of people lost in a commercial fantasy.

Look at your own first response to my comment. You say you understand where I'm coming from, but then you fill two following posts with lame excuses why it is somehow special in my case or that of others because 'reasons'. Its all total BS, sorry. Its part of the idea that we need to constantly have new things to be happy, while those who have all the things aren't really happier at all.

 

[Valantar]

No upgrades for me in 2021 for these reasons:

• I'm not satisfied with the NVIDIA RTX 3000 series that I planned to upgrade to due to thermals (all cards have an insane TBP and my absolute limit has always been ~150W).
• I'm very dissatisfied with the AMD Ryzen 5000 CPUs pricing and the non-availability of a 3700X successor. Again, don't want a CPU with a TDP above 100W. A 5700X would be great but it hasn't even been rumored at this point.

Again this is a poll among/for mad enthusiasts who are gaming at 4K OLED HDR+ @360Hz and I'm a mere mortal with a 24" 1080p 60Hz monitor and a 1660 Ti which runs everything at 1080p beautifully.

Heh, I don't know about 4K OLED HDR+ @360Hz, seeing how I'm gaming on a 1440p60 27" Dell Ultrasharp from 2011 Not a cheap monitor by any means, but spread over a decade of use ~$500 isn't that much. Same goes for my $700 GPU that I now think I'm likely to be using for 6 years before upgrading (that would be September this year IIRC). For gaming I'd probably actually be happier with a lower-end 1080p setup, but sadly that's not suitable for my work, and I don't have room for a second monitor, so it is what it is. Lately I've been running some games at 1080p just to get by, but it kind of looks like ass, and the drop to 720p for some cleaner scaling is a bit too far down again.

I feel 99.9% sure there'll be a 3700X though - it would be very odd for AMD to not make that SKU given that there have been x700X SKUs for every generation of Ryzen up until now. A lack of rumors isn't that strange given the overall lack of Zen 3 rumors - but I'm expecting both a 65W 5700X and 5600 non-X, as well as lower-end SKUs in due time. It's just taking longer than usual due to the production crunch and general low availability - they're clearly milking the high-end, high-margin SKUs for as long as is feasible.

 

[neatfeatguy]

Anyone in the Twin Cities area - be quick about it and get your ass over to MicroCenter! Searching inventory online shows they have 1 - 5800x and 8 - 5950x CPUs on hand!

 

[SL2]

Planning ahead on unreleased goods is just silly IMO.

This.

I've seen several posts throughout the years like "I expect performance to go up x% with every new generation", and that's just longing for disappointments. Everyone's entitled to be disappointed, but you're the only one who can keep your expectations low. Wait for reviews. Don't expect prices to go down from last year.

Now that I finally have that ammount of money to spend, I can't cause everything is either gone or way more expensive. 'no 2060s, no 5600 no 5700 heck rarely any 1660 supers and the price is just insane even when something shows up'

I hear ya. This is not a 4K-only problem.

 

[Vayra86]

This.

I've seen several posts throughout the years like "I expect performance to go up x% with every new generation", and that's just longing for disappointments. Everyone's entitled to be disappointed, but you're the only one who can keep your expectations low. Wait for reviews. Don't expect prices to go down from last year.

Look at Cyberpunk. Whole masses hugely disgruntled on what it was on release.... even on the PC. All those people have been following every teaser, every tiny bit of information and been overthinking that for months, then the game got postponed and even AFTER THAT the product did not live up to 'expectations' that had already soared to unknown heights.

I enjoyed the hell out of it, even if I spotted flaws too. Many, actually... but what I also got was a fantastic narrative, voicing, acting, immersion and vibe. Lots of surprises too.... lots of things that teasers and nonsensical write-ups and let's plays might have already hinted at or spoiled altogether.

I think it all comes down to a simple saying

Assumptions are the mother of all fuckups.

 

[Valantar]

Everybody does. Its only in your own mind that this is somehow not possible.

People want too much.

That's sounding quite close to some quasi-libertarian "societal pressures don't exist, or are at worst optional" nonsense. The Cartesian ideal of a free subject with complete self-determination is at best a myth - none of us are immune to outside pressures. Also, "it's only in your mind" says nothing - none of us have even close to total control of our minds, that's not how minds work. We can try, and we can control certain aspects of them, but never everything. Claiming otherwise is typically a sign of being privileged enough to not be subject to the harsher pressures in life or to having the material means to bypass them - often mixed with a decent amount of luck.

It's obviously true that people generally want too much (for their own good), but changing that is a) likely impossible, and b) a rhetorical device unfairly placing responsibility for responding to outside pressures on individuals. We live in a global (hyper)capitalist society. We are socialized from birth to wanting new stuff - and socialization deeply affects the development of neural pathways in the brain, making breaking such patterns of thinking exceptionally difficult. Also, our lives are entirely bound up in such patterns in ways that affect our happiness and well-being in fundamental ways. For example, this type of logic would require people with a gaming-oriented social circle to accept dramatically less social contact (leading to loneliness, and often also depression and various illnesses) if their PC coudn't handle a new game that their friends/guild/whatever moved on to, unless they had the money to upgrade - which is an entirely unrelated factor (unless you make a living from playing games). Human lives are immensely complex and our happiness is dependent on a host of factors interlinked in incredibly complex ways, few of which we have any type of real control over. Explaining that away through oversimplifications like "people want too much" or "it's only in your own ind that this is somehow not possible" is deeply problematic.

 

[SL2]

About AMD's chip shortage, I'd say RDNA2 is the only one that should have been launched earlier, like Q2, because RDNA2 didn't compete with RDNA1. I'm obviously guessing here, I know it probably wasn't ready.

Vermeer on the other hand couldn't be launched earlier because of Matisse being too new. As for PS/XB, that's even more complex situations to even comment. I'm already in deep water here..

 

[Valantar]

This.

I've seen several posts throughout the years like "I expect performance to go up x% with every new generation", and that's just longing for disappointments. Everyone's entitled to be disappointed, but you're the only one who can keep your expectations low. Wait for reviews. Don't expect prices to go down from last year.


I hear ya. This is not a 4K-only problem.

I entirely agree with that - there's a difference between expecting something to come true and setting a bar for what is acceptable. My planned/desired upgrades are firmly in the latter camp - I don't expect X% improvement per generation, but I do require X% improvement for me to consider an upgrade, and don't plan for one unless it can be reasonably expected. (I also generally think upgrading every generation is wasteful and silly.) Being disappointed in lacklustre improvements is mostly unrelated to this, as that's not necessarily linked to purchase decisions (at least current ones - future ones are obviously reliant on all previous generations to reach whatever target is needed). I was still unimpressed by Intel's incessant 5-7% IPC improvements and AMD's rehashings of Bulldozer even if I wasn't planning on buying anything at those times.

 

[Sithaer]

I hear ya. This is not a 4K-only problem.

Yea, budget-mid range is what I always buy cause thats all I need/can afford and usually use such cards for ~2-3 years. 'bought the current card in 2018 September'
Wanted a bit stronger card this time around to make sure it will last me another 3 years or so since I don't plan on upgrading my current monitor anytime soon. '2560x1080 Ultrawide'

Last time it was this bad is the previous mining craze, at the time I wasn't looking for a new card so it didn't really affect me. 'my 570 is actually a second hand ex miner'

Only lucky thing is that I'm not picky with single player games and I can easily enjoy older titles so I can still play those just fine while things get better.

Damn, that sounds like a bummer for sure, one letdown after another. I really hope my pessimism is wrong and things start improving.

Yea well I'm starting to get used to it, this happens almost all the time when I plan/expect something.

 

[ThrashZone]

Hi,
Too rich for my blood but then again 3080ti hasn't been released yet but I'm sure it like all the rest and announced 2021 price increases planned gpu/... upgrades not likely at all this year.
Just have to ride till current hardware drops dead.

I bought a evga b-stock 980ti for 150.us a while back for a third rig waiting for 30 series to drop glad I did lol

 

[SL2]

(I also generally think upgrading every generation is wasteful and silly.)

I agree. Don't let the itch take control!
But then again, sometimes you're able to sell your old HW for very good prices after one generation. I've seen used 7700K's going for insanely high prices last year, just to name one example, and that's even more than one generation old...

 

[Vayra86]

That's sounding quite close to some quasi-libertarian "societal pressures don't exist, or are at worst optional" nonsense. The Cartesian ideal of a free subject with complete self-determination is at best a myth - none of us are immune to outside pressures. Also, "it's only in your mind" says nothing - none of us have even close to total control of our minds, that's not how minds work. We can try, and we can control certain aspects of them, but never everything. Claiming otherwise is typically a sign of being privileged enough to not be subject to the harsher pressures in life or to having the material means to bypass them - often mixed with a decent amount of luck.

It's obviously true that people generally want too much (for their own good), but changing that is a) likely impossible, and b) a rhetorical device unfairly placing responsibility for responding to outside pressures on individuals. We live in a global (hyper)capitalist society. We are socialized from birth to wanting new stuff - and socialization deeply affects the development of neural pathways in the brain, making breaking such patterns of thinking exceptionally difficult. Also, our lives are entirely bound up in such patterns in ways that affect our happiness and well-being in fundamental ways. For example, this type of logic would require people with a gaming-oriented social circle to accept dramatically less social contact (leading to loneliness, and often also depression and various illnesses) if their PC coudn't handle a new game that their friends/guild/whatever moved on to, unless they had the money to upgrade - which is an entirely unrelated factor (unless you make a living from playing games). Human lives are immensely complex and our happiness is dependent on a host of factors interlinked in incredibly complex ways, few of which we have any type of real control over. Explaining that away through oversimplifications like "people want too much" or "it's only in your own ind that this is somehow not possible" is deeply problematic.

Cool story, now apply the fact that this is a topic about 500 and 700 EUR/dollar GPUs.

Everyone even remotely in the market for one of them is privileged. There are tons of readily available, weaker or older GPUs in stock. Gaming is accessible to everyone at an affordable price. No social problems involved unless you make it so - in your mind. If we're talking about basic means to get around in society, your story rings true. But this is not fundamentally about 'access to gaming' at all. We're talking about brand new, high end GPUs to chase the cutting edge.

 

[Gungar]

Which one are you referring to? I haven't seen any new models since the 650 W Gold.

There is 750W and 650 plat on the focus line up (sfx size) there might be gold versions as well. You can type "seasonic sfx reddit" on google to find stuff about it.

And i am waiting for the STX 850W titanium prime sfx-l model. It was presented at computex 2019

 

[Easy Rhino]

You can expect more global lockdowns with this new strain of COVID they conveniently "found." That will mean no tech production for several weeks if not months. Expect sky high prices on existing product only the ruling class will be able to afford.

 

[Valantar]

Cool story, now apply the fact that this is a topic about 500 and 700 EUR/dollar GPUs.

Everyone even remotely in the market for one of them is privileged. There are tons of readily available, weaker or older GPUs in stock. Gaming is accessible to everyone at an affordable price. No social problems involved unless you make it so - in your mind. If we're talking about basic means to get around in society, your story rings true. But this is not fundamentally about 'access to gaming' at all. We're talking about brand new, high end GPUs to chase the cutting edge.

I wouldn't say the topic is about that, but rather about tech purchases and upgrades in general in the near future. IMO there are just as many (or likely a lot more, tbh) people out there who have been thinking "Okay, the high end parts have launched, now the stuff I might afford will arrive in a few months" - that's how this industry has worked for more than a decade, after all. So I would say this thread is just as revelant to people considering upgrading to something like a potential RTX 3050 or RX 6500 as the high end parts. It's a bit early still, but there's reason to believe the current total absence of these parts (and the rumored delay of the RX 6700 series) is at least partly indicative of the same factors affecting lower end parts, after all (unless, that is, CES has any surprises in store for us next week).

Saying "gaming is accessible to everyone at an affordable price" just states in cleartext how ingrained your privileged point of view is. Gaming is a relatively expensive activity (though obviously there are far more expensive ones out there), and for anyone outside of the few percent of the global population with stable, high incomes, spending even $300 on a console is a big outlay, let alone $700+ on a gaming PC. But even among those of us privileged enough to actually be able to have this as a hobby, there are huge differences in circumstances, none of which are optional for those living in them. If that wasn't true, we'd all be using 2080 Tis and 3090s after all.

You can expect more global lockdowns with this new strain of COVID they conveniently "found." That will mean no tech production for several weeks if not months. Expect sky high prices on existing product only the ruling class will be able to afford.

"Conveniently "found"."? Lol, how else are they going to discover mutated strains of a virus spread across the globe? You test people, analyze the results, and look for changes from what is known. And viruses mutate relatively frequently, that's how they work. There will always be new strains given enough time.

As for lockdown affecting production - that might be, but I don't see much reason to expect it to be worse now than last year. Back then everyone was dealing with a complete unknown, while now there are systems and routines in place. These might still not be enough for new and more aggressive strains, but we're still far better prepared now than a year ago, and the most effective measures (distancing, frequent hand washing, masks to a certain degree) are well established. There will no doubt be continuing disruptions to a lot of things until widespread vaccination is here, but I would be surprised if it got much worse in terms of production stoppages than what we've already seen.

 

[Easy Rhino]

"Conveniently "found"."? Lol, how else are they going to discover mutated strains of a virus spread across the globe? You test people, analyze the results, and look for changes from what is known. And viruses mutate relatively frequently, that's how they work. There will always be new strains given enough time.

As for lockdown affecting production - that might be, but I don't see much reason to expect it to be worse now than last year. Back then everyone was dealing with a complete unknown, while now there are systems and routines in place. These might still not be enough for new and more aggressive strains, but we're still far better prepared now than a year ago, and the most effective measures (distancing, frequent hand washing, masks to a certain degree) are well established. There will no doubt be continuing disruptions to a lot of things until widespread vaccination is here, but I would be surprised if it got much worse in terms of production stoppages than what we've already seen.

UK is already shutting down again. South Africa is following suit. There are people in China starving in lockdown areas bcecause their government can't get them food. You have not seen anything yet. Expect major disruptions.

 

[freeagent]

I don’t see 2021 being any better than 2020.. I think it might be worse if I’m honest. I also don’t think I will be getting a new video card like I wanted. But yeah.. I got my new hardware during Black Friday because I didn’t think there would be much for me to buy later.

I just looked at Newegg.. and my cpu is now 500 beaver bucks from a third party. Crazy.

 

[SL2]

There are tons of readily available, weaker or older GPUs in stock. Gaming is accessible to everyone at an affordable price.

Maybe it depends on which market you're looking at. In EU it's not a good situation. There are less models available, and prices have gone up.
Other SKU's could have been even cheaper a year ago, but I'm not going to track that, obviously..
These are just a few models, and I'm sure there are others that contradict this as I obviously haven't checked all.



1660: 1 out of 31 SKU's in stock, starting at 290EUR, same SKU a year ago: 205EUR

_________________________________________________________________________________________

1660 TI: 1 out of 25 SKU's in stock, starting at 360EUR, same SKU a year ago: 270EUR

_________________________________________________________________________________________

2060: 9 out of 38 SKU's in stock, starting at 390EUR, same SKU a year ago: 330EUR

_________________________________________________________________________________________

570: 8 out of 22 SKU's in stock, starting at 194EUR, same SKU a year ago: 170EUR

_________________________________________________________________________________________

5600 XT: 9 out of 18 SKU's in stock, starting at 380EUR, same SKU a year ago: 300EUR (it was new at that point, stable lowest was 270EUR)

_________________________________________________________________________________________

5700 XT: 1 out of 31 SKU's in stock, starting at 590EUR, same SKU a year ago: 430EUR

_________________________________________________________________________________________

Looking beyond a year doesn't make much difference, that 1660 TI broke the 300EUR mark for the first time after 22 months.

Edit: Forgot about 1660 Super. 9 out of 40 SKU's available. Price has gone from 245EUR at start, via 200, to 260.
2060 Super: 1 out of 13 SKU's available, from 385EUR to 550 in a year.

I honestly have no idea which are EOL..