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Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion

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bitcoin and eth are now trending gently upwards..

trog
 
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Remember, Bitcoin came out at the same time as Apple's "App store", in the winter of 2008/2009.

This isn't a "new technology" any more. We've had 13+ years of Bitcoin, trying to find a good use of it.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and a few other crypto tokens (I don't like calling them crypto currencies) have been accepted as valid payment by some merchants although support has fluctuated on and off over the years (Tesla Motors stopped doing this for example).

The far more interesting aspect has been the blockchain technology itself -- not crypto tokens as an end product.

Crypto tokens are here to stay although hopefully proof-of-work mining's heyday is over.
 
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bitcoin and eth are now trending gently upwards..

trog

Honestly, its all sideways to me. Its been in and around $20,000 for BTC for months.

ETH is more volatile, and I can say that ETH is moving. I dunno which direction, but its moving somewhere.
 
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Honestly, its all sideways to me. Its been in and around $20,000 for BTC for months.

ETH is more volatile, and I can say that ETH is moving. I dunno which direction, but its moving somewhere.

As always, it depends on what timeframe you are looking at. ETH is going up if you look at the last 24 hours. ETH is going down if you look at the last year.


eth-usd-2022.09.17.jpg


None of the three technical indicators here (Bollinger Bands, RSI, and MACD) show anything resembling an imminent change of direction from ETH. Volatility is pretty low (per Bollinger Band width) and there is very little trend or momentum (the two MACD signals are hovering around the zero baseline).

The 24 hour graph is relevant for day traders. A 1 year graph is more suitable for people who are planning to buy and hold for several weeks/month. A 5 year timeframe is more suitable for those who plan to buy and hold for the long-term (>1 year).

Quick, what has been the better crypto investment over the past year: BTC or ETH?


btc-eth-brk-b-2022.09.17.jpg


Answer: neither!

BTC (blue) and ETH (green) have the same equally terrible ROI over the past twelve months although the latter was expectedly more volatile.

For giggles, I've included Class B shares of Berkshire-Hathaway (BRK-B in red) as a comparison.

Enjoy!
 
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phill

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Gave up mining ages ago, I think when our first price increase for the electric came in, I just thought nope, no point and cut losses but kept the hardware I had running. Things been heading down hill for a while so now I just use what I have currently for folding or crunching, depends what rig does what.

I think Proof of Stake made things impossible and with the electric just going up and up here, your just wasting electric and not gaining anything back. In the US its different because of the majority having cheap electric in comparison. I think the new price cap here is about £0.35 a unit for electric and about £0.12 for gas possibly? No good at all for mining, even with solar panels :(
 
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In the US its different because of the majority having cheap electric in comparison.
It's not cheap enough to be of any profit to be worth it to continue mining. When the gain is $0.04 per day and dropping & rates around $0.26 per kilowatt hour(generally), the cost far over-shadows the gain.
 

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It's not cheap enough to be of any profit to be worth it to continue mining. When the gain is $0.04 per day and dropping & rates around $0.26 per kilowatt hour(generally), the cost far over-shadows the gain.
Unless you can afford to do it or there's alternative coin that's showing promise, I gave up ages ago :)
 
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It's not cheap enough to be of any profit to be worth it to continue mining. When the gain is $0.04 per day and dropping & rates around $0.26 per kilowatt hour(generally), the cost far over-shadows the gain.
Yeah I live in cheap hydro land and even I couldn't turn a profit right now.

Not that I would even try, but I've looked at the metrics out of curiousity. It's bad. And honestly, thats good.
 
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I'd argue mining was a big hinderance in crypto gaining any kind of true value as a respectable monetary tool. Ignoring the climate issues, too many people were put off by the fact that people could produce coins seemingly out of thin air (in their eyes).
 
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I'd argue mining was a big hinderance in crypto gaining any kind of true value as a respectable monetary tool. Ignoring the climate issues, too many people were put off by the fact that people could produce coins seemingly out of thin air (in their eyes).

It had pros / cons from an adoption perspective.

The main benefit is that early-adopters benefit from the rising coin prices, leading to a MLM-like "free marketing" scheme where legions of online users would effectively shill the coin for free (in hopes that their own coins would become more valuable). This only became "off-putting" after many years: when it became clear that later-adopters had far less profits from the early adopters. As energy costs rose due to difficulty (and this year, unrelated geopolitical reasons), fewer and fewer people would join in.

Other coins tried to restart that early-adopter growth status, but it only lead to 51% attacks (because smaller coins have far less hashing power, therefore its impossible to secure), or rug-pulls.
 
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so what will be (or people will attempt to) the next big mining coin?
 
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so what will be (or people will attempt to) the next big mining coin?
That is my question too, or is mining with GPUs dead for good?
 
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That is my question too, or is mining with GPUs dead for good?
Some may continue to do so, but I believe that the ROI of 2015~2020 era has gone for good...
 
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Yeah I live in cheap hydro land and even I couldn't turn a profit right now.

Not that I would even try, but I've looked at the metrics out of curiousity. It's bad. And honestly, thats good.
That's the thing, no one can. The coins that are still GPU mining centric are worth little or nothing and are unlikely to gain any traction anytime soon, if ever.

That is my question too, or is mining with GPUs dead for good?
Yes. And even if it's not...
Some may continue to do so, but I believe that the ROI of 2015~2020 era has gone for good...
...this.
 
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so what will be (or people will attempt to) the next big mining coin?

My hope is that PoW crypto token mining is dead (good riddance).

With the market's quick rejection of chia, my guess is that other attempts to move to other PC hardware will have a high risk of failure. With recent skyrocketing energy prices, PoW seems even less desirable than before.

During the height of the mining craze, Tom's Hardware regularly published a table that projected how long it would take to break even mining ETH with a GPU. Their estimated electricity costs were hilariously low; if you subbed in a more realistic electricity rate, it averaged out to about 18 months to pay off a GPU (at street prices at the time). Even with a tumbling GPU market, lower crypto value and higher energy costs have made crypto mining unprofitable.

Crypto tokens like raven that can be mined with GPUs have not shown any noteworthy value increase before or after the ETH Merge and the more people who mine raven, the lower the return.

Some miners are taking the "wait and see" approach. My best guess is that they will simply see their equipment lose value quickly as those who dump their mining rigs on the market try to recoup a few bucks. Once Nvidia and AMD launch their next generation GPUs, the value of ETH mining rigs will drop precipitously.
 
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bitcoin now at just above 18K with eth down near 1.3K.. eth is down 10% on the day..

things are looking a bit grim.. he he..

trog
 
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bitcoin now at just above 18K with eth down near 1.3K.. eth is down 10% on the day..

things are looking a bit grim.. he he..

trog
It's 20+% down on the week. The ETH POW to POS switch plus all the other events are continuing to hit the cryptocoin market hard. This is much worse than even I was expecting...
 
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It's 20+% down on the week. The ETH POW to POS switch plus all the other events are continuing to hit the cryptocoin market hard. This is much worse than even I was expecting...

i use the daily figure because it shows what is happening now.. plus it cant be altered by playing with start and end points..

so far i am looking at big theoretical losses compared to things at the peak.. both in used hardware values and the value of my stash.. i say theoretical because none of it becomes real unless i sell..

its still all totally unpredictable though.. anything could happen.. :)

trog
 
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Bitcoin, Ethereum and a few other crypto tokens (I don't like calling them crypto currencies) have been accepted as valid payment by some merchants although support has fluctuated on and off over the years (Tesla Motors stopped doing this for example).

The far more interesting aspect has been the blockchain technology itself -- not crypto tokens as an end product.

Crypto tokens are here to stay although hopefully proof-of-work mining's heyday is over.
The issue with bitcoins is not the instrument itself, but rather the fact that when making payments, receiving payments, or acting as an intermediary in bitcoins, it can be challenging to determine whether the resulting transaction is for a legal or illegal purpose. As a result, banks are likely to choose the less risky course and avoid doing business with those who handle bitcoins.

The answer to this problem lies with bitcoin intermediaries and regulators rather than with banks.
 
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The issue with bitcoins is not the instrument itself, but rather the fact that when making payments, receiving payments, or acting as an intermediary in bitcoins, it can be challenging to determine whether the resulting transaction is for a legal or illegal purpose. As a result, banks are likely to choose the less risky course and avoid doing business with those who handle bitcoins.

The answer to this problem lies with bitcoin intermediaries and regulators rather than with banks.

There are lots of banks willing to do shady stuff, i don't think that's a real issue. More like this type of transactions used to be "controlled", not done by joe something. I'm sure "crypto, banks and illegal" is more common then "crypto, banks and legal", it's just not at the reach of everyone.

If some banks don't have specialised personal for this i eat my 3060ti.




edit: i think this is what's been keeping crypto down, ever since Mt Gox

 
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What's keeping crypto down right now is general economic downturn.

The issue with bitcoins is not the instrument itself, but rather the fact that when making payments, receiving payments, or acting as an intermediary in bitcoins, it can be challenging to determine whether the resulting transaction is for a legal or illegal purpose. As a result, banks are likely to choose the less risky course and avoid doing business with those who handle bitcoins.

The answer to this problem lies with bitcoin intermediaries and regulators rather than with banks.
This is price discussion sir and that aspect of bitcoin has nothing to do with day-to-day price.
 
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