Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion

[lexluthermiester]

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Nothing more or less that normal market fluctuations. Nothing to be excited about.

 

[dragontamer5788]

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Nothing more or less that normal market fluctuations. Nothing to be excited about.

Signature Bank, aka "Cryptobank #2" after Silvergate Bank, is the real story here IMO. At least with regards to this topic.

Signature Bank has been taken over by FDIC and is under a similar arrangement as Silicon Valley Bank.

 

[Bomby569]

how much of signature's business was crypto?

 

[trog100]

bitcoin now up over 24 k 15 % on the day.. with eth following suit..

interesting.. he he..

trog

 

[A&P211]

We're in a bipolar economic situation. Given the layoffs, I think its safe to call it a "tech recession". But the rest of the economy is going so strong that it looks like the Fed is going to still increase the FFR.

I think it is reasonable (especially with SIVB news) for a techie / venture capitalist type to think that the world is falling apart right now. But the US economy in general is far larger than just technology. It all depends on perspective. The tech world is doing extremely poorly this past week, and news of further rate hikes is only going to make things worse for them.

Where you live, who you work for, etc. etc. It matters a lot right now, different industries are seeing very different things right now.

The trucking industry is in a dead recession. Freight rates are in the shitter with fuel prices and insurances prices increasing/still high. Fuel prices have come down a bit but insurance rates increased double digits YOY from 2023. Card board prices are down, card board are used to transport almost any thing.

When I worked at Morgan Stanley, I made a card board index, companies that would sell card board by the ton went into the index. I would track the price sold (by the ton) and it would pretty well indicate the overall health of the economy. As of right now, my card board index is low, to me the economy should be heading into a recession very soon but these jobs reports from the US Fed make no sense to me.
Like you said, bipolar economy.

 

[Vya Domus]

to me the economy should be heading into a recession very soon but these jobs reports from the US Fed make no sense to me.

It's very simple, there is still no liquidity crisis affecting the stock market at large, despite everything things like the SP500 are still tracking the historical trend.

 

[trog100]

bitcoin now a tad below 26K.. bank failures seem to be doing it good..

trog

 

[AnotherReader]

bitcoin now a tad below 26K.. bank failures seem to be doing it good..

It is not the bank failures, but the regulators stepping in to save the depositors of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

 

[Bomby569]

It's very simple, there is still no liquidity crisis affecting the stock market at large, despite everything things like the SP500 are still tracking the historical trend.

there is still too much money out there, that's exactly the problem. Perfect to keep the bubble going despite and kicking the can down the road

 

[trog100]

bitcoin now up well over 26K 6% on the day.. eth up over 1.7 K..

i think some of the money moving out of the banks is going into bitcoin.. the trend is upwards..

trog

 

[lexluthermiester]

i think some of the money moving out of the banks is going into bitcoin..

That is possible.

 

[LFaWolf]

$27k was what I paid for 1 BTC a year ago and it is finally back to that level. I am happy. But imagine taking your money from a bank where the government has guaranteed to make you whole (the US gov can't afford to cause panic and bank run at the moment) to avoid banks' risk, and put them in the riskiest asset of all.

 

[trog100]

$27k was what I paid for 1 BTC a year ago and it is finally back to that level. I am happy. But imagine taking your money from a bank where the government has guaranteed to make you whole (the US gov can't afford to cause panic and bank run at the moment) to avoid banks' risk, and put them in the riskiest asset of all.

the stock markets are a sea of red.. bitcoin is now up 10% on the day at 27500.. gold is also rocketing up at 1988..

maybe you are wrong about the banks and government promised bail outs.. ether way it seems some people think you are..

trog

 

[LFaWolf]

the stock markets are a sea of red.. bitcoin is now up 10% on the day at 27500.. gold is also rocketing up at 1988..

maybe you are wrong about the banks and government promised bail outs.. ether way it seems some people think you are..

trog

I will absolutely bet that the US gov will not allow another bank failure. The consequence of another bank failure, even a smaller regional bank like First Republic, will show a major systemic risk in the financial sector, and the entire economy. A bank run panic and subsequent market collapse is a political suicide for the current administration. Bailout with taxpayers money is the easy decision.

Treasury bonds, short term CDs, or money market is a much safer bet at this moment, but what do I know.

Can't say the same about Credit Suisse. I don't have much knowledge of how the Swiss gov works.

 

[trog100]

bitcoin now at just over 28k with eth at 1.8K..

the snag with government bank bail outs is the huge volume of highly inflationary mouse click money its gonna take..

trog

 

[Bomby569]

nice, i finally made a good entrance, to the moon baby

 

[dragontamer5788]

I'm seeing that Michael Saylor got to call in his Microstrategy loan for 20%+ profit due to the banking issues last month.

It looks like those profits directly were used to buy BTC. Or at least, that event lines up exactly with the price of BTC shooting up to 28k.

 

[trog100]

bitcoin now at 30200.. eth is around 1920.. to me it seems in a definite upwards trend.. but i am maybe a little biased on the positive side..

trog

 

[trog100]

bitcoin holding and moving sideways around 30200 with eth moving upwards and very close to 2K..

trog

 

[trog100]

bitcoin briefly topped 31 k and then dropped back a tad.. eth now at 2100 ish..

i notice a lack of comment from the bitcoin negative members of this thread which does seem to be most of them.

trog

 

[ThrashZone]

Hi,
Maybe add the hehe again

 

[cvaldes]

i notice a lack of comment from the bitcoin negative members of this thread which does seem to be most of them.

There's not much to comment about. The numbers tell the story:

BTC -27.3%
ETH -32.6%
Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) -9%
S&P 500 (^GSPC) -5.5%
Apple Inc. (AAPL) +0.6%

As the chart shows, the two crypto tokens have performed poorly over TTM. That includes today's +2.4% increase.

Crypto has a long way to go to even break even with the major market indices.

Even AAPL is down TTM if you figure in inflation (this chart does not account for dividend payouts).

Come back when the cryptos start consistently outperforming the market. I note that every time someone posts one of these charts, crypto enthusiasts get really quiet for a while.

 

[trog100]

There's not much to comment about. The numbers tell the story:

View attachment 292080

BTC -27.3%
ETH -32.6%
Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) -9%
S&P 500 (^GSPC) -5.5%
Apple Inc. (AAPL) +0.6%

As the chart shows, the two crypto tokens have performed poorly over TTM. That includes today's +2.4% increase.

Crypto has a long way to go to even break even with the major market indices.

Even AAPL is down TTM if you figure in inflation (this chart does not account for dividend payouts).

Come back when the cryptos start consistently outperforming the market. Because I or someone else will keep posting these yearly charts to highlight crypto performance.

There's not much to comment about. The numbers tell the story:

View attachment 292080

BTC -27.3%
ETH -32.6%
Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) -9%
S&P 500 (^GSPC) -5.5%
Apple Inc. (AAPL) +0.6%

As the chart shows, the two crypto tokens have performed poorly over TTM. That includes today's +2.4% increase.

Crypto has a long way to go to even break even with the major market indices.

Even AAPL is down TTM if you figure in inflation (this chart does not account for dividend payouts).

Come back when the cryptos start consistently outperforming the market. I note that every time someone posts one of these charts, crypto enthusiasts get really quiet for a while.

i only comment on bitcoin and eth.. they are both well up on the year..

and in my oppinion set to go much higher..

trog

 

[lexluthermiester]

and in my oppinion set to go much higher..

You always have that opinion. It only happens 50% of the time...

 

[ThrashZone]

You always have that opinion. It only happens 50% of the time...

Hi,
50-50 is pretty good odds hehe