GeForce value over time and 40-series pricing.

[Count von Schwalbe]

Doing some calculations based on the value of various product launches. Found this interesting (lower is better):

This is NOT adjusted for inflation. Using an extreme curve in about the middle of the lineup gives us the blue line above.
Below are my calculations for that:

Spoiler: Tables

Name	Perf	Price	$/% of 4090
4090	100​	$1,600.00​	$16.00​
4080 TI	82​	$1,270.49​	$15.50​
4080 (16)	80​	$1,200.00​	$15.00​
4080 (12)	66​	$900.00​	$13.64​
4070 TI	66​	$660.00​	$10.00​
4070	61​	$490.00​	$8.00​
4060 TI	49​	$390.00​	$8.00​
4060	51​	$360.00​	$7.00​
4050	33​	$230.00​	$7.00​

I had to do some guessing about Ada's MSRP. There was no pricing method based on specifications that could account for the 4080 16GB's pricing; it always came out to $1000 at most while maintaining a $1600 4090. Using Extrapolation based on performance, I came up with the blue line in the chart above. Note that "XX80 Super" is in this case the 4080 16GB, and the XX70 TI is the same GPU. I used an aggressive curve in the middle of the chart to bring the low end to similar levels as older cards.

At the XX80 Super and the XX90 level, the price/performance is quite similar, so it wasn't hard to tell that the price-to-performance line could be much flatter this generation, based on the high end. (lower is better)

Based on the line above, here are my calculations for the 40-series lineup pricing. Note again that the 4090 and 4080 (16) are calculated instead of estimated.

Spoiler: More tables

Name	Performance	Calculated MSRP	$/% of 4090
4090	100​	$1,600.00​	$16.00​
4080 TI	82​	$1,270.49​	$15.50​
4080 (16)	80​	$1,200.00​	$15.00​
4080 (12)	66​	$900.00​	$13.64​
4070 TI	66​	$900.00​	$13.60​
4070	61​	$790.00​	$13.00​
4060 TI	49​	$630.00​	$12.80​
4060	51​	$620.00​	$12.20​
4050	33​	$420.00​	$12.80​

It doesn't look good.
Either way, and it will probably fall somewhere in the middle, Nvidia is moving more cards into the "Halo" market. This is not a good thing as it leads to terrible value for previously affordable units like the XX80 and XX70 levels.

Let's adjust for inflation (as per the US Government's CPI) and see how Nvidia's pricing has changed.

Ouch! Not a great look. Actually, Ampere did much better than I expected. I wonder if it is from the move from TSMC to Samsung. Anyways, it looks like Ada's value at the low end "MIGHT" be better than the 3050 - which is like saying that it smells better than rotting meat.

If you are interested, this is the value chart based on MSRP/Performance across multiple generations (inflation-adjusted, lower is better):

Unfortunately, the "Titan" cards screw up my neat little graph. Setting them to an arbitrary value gives me this(lower is better):

That's a little easier to see. Ada is actually decent value, but it should be much better, being the new thing. Remember, these are inflation-adjusted MSRPs, not current values. Sadly, the 3060 TI is better value new at MSRP than what these Ada MSRPs could turn out to be.

 

[bug]

I am not sure how you're going to extract a trend when the past few years have been so atypical and MSRPs have been wishful thinking at best.

 

[Count von Schwalbe]

I am not sure how you're going to extract a trend when the past few years have been so atypical and MSRPs have been wishful thinking at best.

It's the only data point we have. Retailers certainly won't price them below MSRP until they look like sitting on the shelf.

 

[Bomby569]

Pascal was the last decent generation. After that, came the dumpster fire. Then the good one in comparison, with the previously mentioned dumpster fire, but that suffered the apocalypse. And now the insane generation. You can show me whatever charts you want i won't change my mind.
And inflation is an average, we use one number as a simplification, some things have much higher values and other lower, that's how we get to an average. Comparing GPU's to food or fuel makes obviously no sense, the ones that are mostly getting that higher number.

Simplifications should not serve as an excuse.

 

[Count von Schwalbe]

Pascal was the last decent generation. After that, came the dumpster fire. Then the good one in comparison, with the previously mentioned dumpster fire, but that suffered the apocalypse. And now the insane generation. You can show me whatever charts you want i won't change my mind.
And inflation is an average, we use one number as a simplification, some things have much higher values and other lower, that's how we get to an average. Comparing GPU's to food or fuel makes obviously no sense, the ones that are mostly getting that higher number.

Simplifications should not serve as an excuse.

Even the inflation adjusted chart agrees with you

The value in using the CPI for inflation is that it is the absolute value of one USD. This can show how GPU's went up more than just the overall devaluation of the currency you are using to purchase them.

Personally, I think that Ada pricing is going to be awful.

 

[Dr. Dro]

One thing to consider is that the 4090 is highly likely not to be the fastest GeForce SKU of the Ada generation. I believe that an RTX 4090 Ti refresh (or 30th anniversary Titan) is inevitable, especially considering that AMD has them beat in the value proposition for a high-end GPU, and that the 4090 has a very significant number of disabled shaders. It won't be 10-15% that the 3090 Ti brought over the 3090 (and even then, most of it was down to the generous power limit allowances and improved memory speeds due to no longer needing a clamshell design), this time there's clear potential to bring >25% improvement by enabling the 14 SMs that were disabled in the 4090, raising clocks, improving memory timings, improving the power delivery system (plus raising the limits further), and of course, optimizing drivers by the time it launches in a year's time.

The 7900 XTX, on the other hand, should be, as it offers a fully enabled processor already. An eventual 7950 XTX is down to refinements in process node and higher clock speeds, just like the 6950 XT.

 

[evernessince]

I am not sure how you're going to extract a trend when the past few years have been so atypical and MSRPs have been wishful thinking at best.

Heck even if you ignore the last few irregular years, MSRP hasn't been valid since Nvidia came out with founders edition cards.

FE cards exist so that Nvidia can claim they hit MSRP and use that as leverage in reviews but in reality the vast majority of people are buying AIB cards and are always paying more for those. Depending on the card tier anywhere from $50 - $100 over MSRP at a minimum.

Pascal cards were widely available at MSRP. Heck it used to be you could even get some models under MSRP. These charts aren't accurate unless they take this into account. The 3000 series can't be judged at all based on MSRP and the way the 4000 series is going it can't be either given you can't buy even the 4080 at MSRP right now. People quickly forget how many tricks Nvidia pulled to increase GPU pricing.

 

[Dr. Dro]

Heck even if you ignore the last few irregular years, MSRP hasn't been valid since Nvidia came out with founders edition cards.

FE cards exist so that Nvidia can claim they hit MSRP and use that as leverage in reviews but in reality the vast majority of people are buying AIB cards and are always paying more for those. Depending on the card tier anywhere from $50 - $100 over MSRP at a minimum.

Pascal cards were widely available at MSRP. Heck it used to be you could even get some models under MSRP. These charts aren't accurate unless they take this into account. The 3000 series can't be judged at all based on MSRP and the way the 4000 series is going it can't be either given you can't buy even the 4080 at MSRP right now. People quickly forget how many tricks Nvidia pulled to increase GPU pricing.

Not to mention regional availability of Founders cards is extremely limited and generally restricted to the United States/Canada market and select (rich) countries in Western Europe. To buy a Founders card here in Brazil, only by a supplier who imports the cards legally (at an extremely high cost) or traveling to the USA myself and smuggling one back with me in the luggage.

 

[Vayra86]

My only positive take away from what's happening in the economy at large is that we're going to do more with less.

Shit's getting scarce, wherever you look. We're not adjusting to fix the climate issue, so the economy adjusts itself by throwing lots of people under the bus until the penny drops. The markets work, and its going to be a painful exercise in butting our heads against the wall. We're going to slowly realize that the future isn't 'too expensive', but rather that the recent past was far too cheap.

The more you zoom out and look at the big picture, the more difficult this reality is to deny. Let's face it, we all know it. We just don't want to hear it. Whether Nvidia takes its gross 60% margin or 30%, we will buy until we're stopped because we simply can't. Heck, even if we can't buy, we BUY, and pay later. Debt is our middle name.

This hypercommerce train is going to grind to a halt within our lives, mark my words.

 

[InVasMani]

Debt be a cruel Scrooge.

 

[Bomby569]

My only positive take away from what's happening in the economy at large is that we're going to do more with less.

Shit's getting scarce, wherever you look. We're not adjusting to fix the climate issue, so the economy adjusts itself by throwing lots of people under the bus until the penny drops. The markets work, and its going to be a painful exercise in butting our heads against the wall. We're going to slowly realize that the future isn't 'too expensive', but rather that the recent past was far too cheap.

The more you zoom out and look at the big picture, the more difficult this reality is to deny. Let's face it, we all know it. We just don't want to hear it. Whether Nvidia takes its gross 60% margin or 30%, we will buy until we're stopped because we simply can't. Heck, even if we can't buy, we BUY, and pay later. Debt is our middle name.

This hypercommerce train is going to grind to a halt within our lives, mark my words.

There is too many people that can buy overpriced shit, so all will be good in rtx 4090 sales. The things you talk about affect other people (most of us) and most other products. Sales of luxury cars are always going up. Unless the people revolt, then it's their problem too, that's how this things go.

 

[BSim500]

I'm not sure any MSRP vs MSRP charts make any sense when we've still never seen "normal" MSRP prices for Ampere yet did pre mining boom for Turing. Eg, the chart shows a very thin gap low-end like $6 v $7.50, and yet RTX 3050 is +35% faster than the 1650S but a whopping +100% the available price (£300 vs £150). Even the next GPU up (eg, £200 GTX 1660S vs £300 RTX 3050), the RTX 3050 is +5% faster yet +50% the price (I bought my GTX 1660 new for £157, cheapest RTX 3050 today is still £280). You'd have to go 3x GPU's up 1650S -> 1660 -> 1660S/Ti -> 2060 (non Super) to find an actual price match (£300 vs £300) and the RTX 3050 is still 10% slower than what it's really "replacing". Same story with RTX 3060 vs RTX 2070 / 2070S that were also the same price in practice...

tl:dr - The market is so skewed that the value of measuring "MSRP vs MSRP pricing" across generations has itself become worthless.

 

[TheoneandonlyMrK]

Another apologist thread suggesting via mental gymnastics and a vague realisation of what the pandemic and mining craze did to the pricing over the last few years.

That Nvidia are being fair.

My arse, your talking out of your arse.

Stop propping up shitty ideals to make right that which is absolutely wrong.

The last five years happened.

Don't imply tacit fairness where pure bullshit is enshrined.

Especially when Nvidia's MSRP is such a tangential pile of irrelevant turd, find a 4090 at MSRP.

Few 4080s are being sold at MSRP.

 

[Count von Schwalbe]

Another apologist thread suggesting via mental gymnastics and a vague realisation of what the pandemic and mining craze did to the pricing over the last few years.

That Nvidia are being fair.

My arse, your talking out of your arse.

Stop propping up shitty ideals to make right that which is absolutely wrong.

The last five years happened.

Don't imply tacit fairness where pure bullshit is enshrined.

Especially when Nvidia's MSRP is such a tangential pile of irrelevant turd, find a 4090 at MSRP.

Few 4080s are being sold at MSRP.

Ouch! I wasn't suggesting that MSRP was in any way the true selling price; far from it. I am not a market analyst, just a regular guy who threw some charts together in an afternoon.

Personally I think AMD is far far better value right now and probably will be for a long time.

I just found it interesting how Nvidia's "official" stance on pricing has changed over the past 5 years.

Two big takeaways - the 4080 is either way into "halo" range pricing or the pricing for "regular" Ada cards is waaaaay higher than past generations.

During my research, I found some interesting articles:

NVIDIA has sold 160K GeForce RTX 40 graphics cards already, but stores are still full of RTX 4080s - VideoCardz.com

NVIDIA RTX 40 sales reports The RTX 4080 is not selling particularly well on the first week. First estimates on RTX 40 series sales have been shared by a few sources, but even despite impressive numbers, retailers are worried it may not as popular a choice as RTX 4090. According to Wccftech and...

videocardz.com

NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4080 temporarily drops below MSRP in Germany - VideoCardz.com

GeForce RTX 4080 below MSRP, but only by €20 and only for a limited time Probably no reason to get excited just yet, but a good sign nonetheless. PCGamesHardware report that GeForce RTX 4080 from Gainward already being offered for price lower than MSRP. The original price of €1,539 has been...

videocardz.com

NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4090 is outselling the RTX 4080 on eBay by a factor of 3.4 - VideoCardz.com

Scalpers struggling to sell more than eight RTX 4080 cards a day Tom’s Hardware has a great analysis of the eBay US sales on GeForce RTX 40 graphics cards. It looks like the RTX 4080 has turned into a true nightmare for scalpers. The peak demand for RTX 4080 is over, but was there ever […]

videocardz.com

 

[TheoneandonlyMrK]

Ouch! I wasn't suggesting that MSRP was in any way the true selling price; far from it. I am not a market analyst, just a regular guy who threw some charts together in an afternoon.

Personally I think AMD is far far better value right now and probably will be for a long time.

I just found it interesting how Nvidia's "official" stance on pricing has changed over the past 5 years.

Two big takeaways - the 4080 is either way into "halo" range pricing or the pricing for "regular" Ada cards is waaaaay higher than past generations.

I think it came across too positive then but I get you, Nvidia and AMD (with 7### gen though it's lower) are pushing too high up the pricing curve though, let's not forget it.

Ooh look gainward dropped it £20 from its elevated 1539, arse the founder's cooler was over the top, one with RGB isn't worth another 339£ anyway, there MSRP was arse and is reduced by arse.

 

[Dr. Dro]

This hypercommerce train is going to grind to a halt within our lives, mark my words.

I wouldn't even go that far, I think there will be a major economic perspective shift in the next decade, and it may result in unpleasant diplomacy if you get my drift. I just hope for the best.

 

[Kissamies]

I haven't even read 40 series' reviews as I know that I can't afford those in 3 years.

 

[toyo]

Pascal was the last decent generation. After that, came the dumpster fire. Then the good one in comparison, with the previously mentioned dumpster fire, but that suffered the apocalypse. And now the insane generation. You can show me whatever charts you want i won't change my mind.
And inflation is an average, we use one number as a simplification, some things have much higher values and other lower, that's how we get to an average. Comparing GPU's to food or fuel makes obviously no sense, the ones that are mostly getting that higher number.

Simplifications should not serve as an excuse.

Largely the fault of customers and tech press/content creators.
Everything is "Recommended" on Guru3D. There is no adversarial relation between press and Nvidia/Intel/AMD. There are no harsh words and sections about pricing on any of the mainstream sites. Just think about the flak other corporations sustain on all sorts of issues on social media. Take Balenciaga for example, as it's recent. It's enough to associate with the wrong person and you'll get bullied online.
We need to return to adversarial relations between corporations and media/customers. No more syrupy, technical pieces that conveniently ignore the astronomic price rises of the last 7 years or so and just present things as a take it or leave it situation, where the corporation has all the power, and customers have none.
No, customers DO have power, a lot of it, and if they are determined enough to pursue their own financial interest, and unafraid of going after the corporations, they will typically succeed.
And the press needs to understand that the clicks and the Youtube channel visits come from US, the customers, not from Nvidia or AMD reps. We sustain you. We are your audience. Serve us, within being truthful, of course, but serve us, the customer. Stop being neutral about prices. Have large sections on that and explain how intolerable it is, in a period with war and rising energy prices, to try and sell people these cards and CPUs at their largest price ever. Explain how tech is no longer a luxury, but a necessity. Explain that with innovation and time passing, prices should go down, not up.
Yet for some reason, most customers prefer to be fanboys and rage on the "enemy" corporation while finding attenuating circumstances for the "friend" corporation, as if such a thing exists. And because of how stupid and passive customers are, the media is able continue its friendly, positive relation with the corporations, get cards, CPUs on time, get cozy with bosses at events and more. That is not serving the customers, that is serving the corporations.

 

[Selaya]

Pascal was the last decent generation. After that, came the dumpster fire. Then the good one in comparison, with the previously mentioned dumpster fire, but that suffered the apocalypse. And now the insane generation. You can show me whatever charts you want i won't change my mind.
And inflation is an average, we use one number as a simplification, some things have much higher values and other lower, that's how we get to an average. Comparing GPU's to food or fuel makes obviously no sense, the ones that are mostly getting that higher number.

Simplifications should not serve as an excuse.

partly disagree. both 3080 and 3070 (and, to some extents the 3060ti) were great.
now, the 3060 and 3050 were colossal insults, not wrong here.
but on the enthusiast/highend side ampere absolutely delivered. (ignoring the mining/scalping fiasco but that is by no means nv's fault)

 

[Kissamies]

Pascal was the last decent generation. After that, came the dumpster fire. Then the good one in comparison, with the previously mentioned dumpster fire, but that suffered the apocalypse. And now the insane generation. You can show me whatever charts you want i won't change my mind.
And inflation is an average, we use one number as a simplification, some things have much higher values and other lower, that's how we get to an average. Comparing GPU's to food or fuel makes obviously no sense, the ones that are mostly getting that higher number.

Simplifications should not serve as an excuse.

They made 1080 Ti a too good card as it traded blows with 2080.

 

[TheoneandonlyMrK]

They made 1080 Ti a too good card as it traded blows with 2080.

You have that twisted IMHO, the 1080Ti was good, but.
The 2080 was that bad that it as you say wasn't able to extend a gap.

Why.

Because RT yo but No.

 

[Kissamies]

You have that twisted IMHO, the 1080Ti was good, but.
The 2080 was that bad that it as you say wasn't able to extend a gap.

Or maybe it was comparable to 2070S, anyway I guess u got my point.

 

[evernessince]

Largely the fault of customers and tech press/content creators.
Everything is "Recommended" on Guru3D. There is no adversarial relation between press and Nvidia/Intel/AMD. There are no harsh words and sections about pricing on any of the mainstream sites. Just think about the flak other corporations sustain on all sorts of issues on social media. Take Balenciaga for example, as it's recent. It's enough to associate with the wrong person and you'll get bullied online.
We need to return to adversarial relations between corporations and media/customers. No more syrupy, technical pieces that conveniently ignore the astronomic price rises of the last 7 years or so and just present things as a take it or leave it situation, where the corporation has all the power, and customers have none.
No, customers DO have power, a lot of it, and if they are determined enough to pursue their own financial interest, and unafraid of going after the corporations, they will typically succeed.
And the press needs to understand that the clicks and the Youtube channel visits come from US, the customers, not from Nvidia or AMD reps. We sustain you. We are your audience. Serve us, within being truthful, of course, but serve us, the customer. Stop being neutral about prices. Have large sections on that and explain how intolerable it is, in a period with war and rising energy prices, to try and sell people these cards and CPUs at their largest price ever. Explain how tech is no longer a luxury, but a necessity. Explain that with innovation and time passing, prices should go down, not up.
Yet for some reason, most customers prefer to be fanboys and rage on the "enemy" corporation while finding attenuating circumstances for the "friend" corporation, as if such a thing exists. And because of how stupid and passive customers are, the media is able continue its friendly, positive relation with the corporations, get cards, CPUs on time, get cozy with bosses at events and more. That is not serving the customers, that is serving the corporations.

Heck forget being recommended, the 4080 is TechPowerUp's editor choice award winner despite it being 71.8% more expensive and having a 39.6% smaller die then the 3080. Historically bad value is apparently good enough for Editor's choice nowadays.

partly disagree. both 3080 and 3070 (and, to some extents the 3060ti) were great.
now, the 3060 and 3050 were colossal insults, not wrong here.
but on the enthusiast/highend side ampere absolutely delivered. (ignoring the mining/scalping fiasco but that is by no means nv's fault)

Stop giving Nvidia a pass on it's greed during the pandemic. They dedicated a portion of their production just to mining cards, allowed the bulk sale of card directly to miners, and jacked up MSRP of cards released later like the 3080 Ti to cash in as much possible.

LHR cards were only a facade to hide the fact they Nvidia had been catering to miners the entire pandemic. The fact that a driver "accidentally" released that got around LHR restrictions only added insult to injury.

Without a doubt Nvidia is responsible for a large share of the misery during the pandemic. The 3080 and 3070 were priced well but that's irrelevant given the vast majority of people did not buy at MSRP. Nvidia delivered for miners, not for gamers.

 

[Audioave10]

When you say " value over time", I don't even think these monster cards will last that long. Look at the tremendous heat and power
they consume. Heat will be the death of these cards maybe later but maybe sooner. I have both the GTX480 and the GTX470 and
we know how hot those are ( they work well in my large air-cooling cases however). I don't see 450watt video cards lasting 10 years.
I bought a used GTX285 for an XP Retro PC and paid $40 for it. THAT is value over time!

 

[Bomby569]

Heck forget being recommended, the 4080 is TechPowerUp's editor choice award winner despite it being 71.8% more expensive and having a 39.6% smaller die then the 3080. Historically bad value is apparently good enough for Editor's choice nowadays.

you may never get a nvidia card to review ever again unless you play ball. With the price these things cost you have to be Linus to buy them all to review
also i'm sure those 10.000$ Louis vuitton bags are some editor review somewhere, if you don't care about money