GPU Sales See Biggest Quarterly Drop Since 2009 Recession: JPR

[btarunr]

Jon Peddie Research reports the growth of the global PC-based graphics processor unit (GPU) market reached 75.5 million units in Q3'22 and PC CPU shipments decreased by -19% year over year. Overall, GPUs will have a compound annual growth rate of 2.8% during 2022-2026 and reach an installed base of 3,138 million units at the end of the forecast period. Over the next five years, the penetration of discrete GPUs (dGPUs) in the PC will grow to reach a level of 26%.

Year-to-year total GPU shipments, which include all platforms and all types of GPUs, decreased by -25.1%, desktop graphics decreased by -15.43%, and notebooks decreased by -30%—the biggest drop since the 2009 recession. AMD's overall market share percentage from last quarter decreased by -8.5%, Intel's market share increased by 10.3%, and NVIDIA's market share decreased by -1.87%, as indicated in the following chart.



Overall GPU unit shipments decreased by -10.3% from last quarter, AMD shipments decreased by -47.6%, Intel's shipments rose by 4.7%, and NVIDIA's shipments decreased by -19.7%.

Quick highlights

• The GPU's overall attach rate (which includes integrated and discrete GPUs, desktop, notebook, and workstations) to PCs for the quarter was 115%, down -6.0% from last quarter.
• The overall PC CPU market decreased by -5.7% quarter to quarter and decreased -by 18.6% from year to year.
• Desktop graphics add-in boards (AIBs that use discrete GPUs) decreased by -33.5% from the last quarter.
• This quarter saw 0.5% change in tablet shipments from last quarter.

The third quarter typically has the strongest growth compared to the previous quarter. This quarter was down -10.3% from last quarter, which is below the 10-year average of 5.3%.

GPUs have been a leading indicator of the market because a GPU goes into a system before the suppliers ship the PC. Most of the semiconductor vendors are guiding down for the next quarter, an average of -0.21%. Last quarter, they guided -2.79%, which was too high.

Jon Peddie, president of JPR, noted, "The third quarter is usually the high point of the year for the GPU and PC suppliers, and even though the suppliers had guided down in Q2, the results came much below their expectations.

"All the companies gave various and sometimes similar reasons for the downturn: the shutdown of crypto mining, headwinds from China's zero-tolerance rules and rolling shutdowns, sanctions by the US, user situation from the purchasing run-up during Covid, the Osborne effect on AMD while gamers wait for the new AIBs, inflation and the higher prices of AIBs, overhang inventory run-down, and a bad moon out tonight.

"Generally, the feeling is Q4 shipments will be down, but ASPs will be up, supply will be fine, and everyone will have a happy holiday," Peddie said.

JPR also publishes a series of reports on the graphics add-in board market and PC gaming hardware market, which covers the total market, including systems and accessories, and looks at 31 countries.

Pricing and availability
JPR's Market Watch is available and sells for $2,750. This report includes an Excel workbook with the data used to create the charts, the charts themselves, and supplemental information. The annual subscription price for JPR's Market Watch is $5,500 and includes four quarterly issues. Full subscribers to JPR services receive TechWatch (the company's bi-weekly report) and a copy of Market Watch as part of their subscription.

Click here to learn more about this significant report or to download it now. For more information, call 415/435-9368 or visit the Jon Peddie Research website at www.jonpeddie.com.

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[bug]

Totally unexpected, considering all the "great" options available

 

[neatfeatguy]

When you lose out on your biggest buyers (miners) when crypto's Etherum changed to POS and coupled with the overpriced GPUs that have just come out, plus the fact it took forever for last gen GPU prices to get to MSRP (which some haven't) or below....

It doesn't take JPR to tell us something we all already know.

 

[Daven]

That GPU Vendor graph is the most meaningless and at the same time deceptive market infographic I have ever seen. Since close to 80% of all desktops and laptops come with Intel integrated graphics with no means of removing and only experienced users know how to deactivate, anyone with skin in the game should ignore. On top of that, Intel barely makes any money from integrated graphics so a market share analysis doesn’t even help someone choose how to invest.

 

[bug]

That GPU Vendor graph is the most meaningless and at the same time deceptive market infographic I have ever seen. Since close to 80% of all desktops and laptops come with Intel integrated graphics with no means of removing and only experienced users know how to deactivate, anyone with skin in the game should ignore. On top of that, Intel barely makes any money from integrated graphics so a market share analysis doesn’t even help someone choose how to invest.

It also lumps AMD's IGPs together with GPUs. Still, it's overall video chips sold. I'm sure there's more detail in there if you buy the reports. Unfortunately for us, it's priced out of reach of mere tech enthusiasts.

 

[GhostRyder]

I mean we are in a recession so its not shocking... Lets be frank, people are tighter with their money this season and going to be for the foreseeable future because of rising costs. Plus the crypto mining bubble exploded and now there is a flooded market, so its going to be this way for quite awhile (Heck maybe even till next GPU cycle).

 

[bug]

I mean we are in a recession so its not shocking... Lets be frank, people are tighter with their money this season and going to be for the foreseeable future because of rising costs. Plus the crypto mining bubble exploded and now there is a flooded market, so its going to be this way for quite awhile (Heck maybe even till next GPU cycle).

It's actually even worse than that. Because of the crypto bubble, AMD and Nvidia thought they could get away doing nothing but adding shaders and caches. Both of these require bigger dies. Now the bubble is gone, and both of them have nothing but big, expensive dies to sell. Miners would have taken those of their hands in the blink of an eye (seeing to as they would have made that money back anyway). Gamers, not so much.

 

[HeadRusch1]

Brass Tacks:

This hobby (gaming) on PC's (specifically) has literally become a rich mans game. You pay more and more for a serious set of diminishing returns. You can watch comparison videos until your eyes bleed between "Ray Tracing ON versus Ray Tracing OFF" and you are left going..."ok but, the RT off one...still looks really good!" and in at least more than a few cases, you can't even TELL if it's on or off, and that's a real slap in the face when they ask you to spend double for the new hardware or at least a 40 to 50% increase.

At least that's my experience, yeah there are always going to be 1 or 2 outliers where you go "Ok that looks SUPER nice with RT on....but what a performance or power hit you take to do it", plus then you get into the uncomfortable argument that you're scaling....AI scaling but....you're still running that game native at 1080 or 1440 to achieve those results. Finally, you ever notice how a lot of Ray Tracing ON functions just....look wrong? Like....floors and cars are *never* that reflective in real life, windows are NOT always mirrors like every RT ON video game tries to portray them as, etc, etc.

Meanwhile, every game I play with some uber-raw-power $2000 video card still has blocky shadows that magically materialize 30 (or 10) feet away from my character, totally breaking immersion...or LOD's change noticeably as I get closer to objects.....the $200 old card and the $2000 new super card behave exactly the same way in regards to those game-engine problems.

Video Cards just aren't worth the money they want for them now unless you gotta be that Alpha-Gamer, or you are convinced that your life and game experience suck if you aren't getting a consistent 140+FPS at 4K......which I just don't understand. Why not upgrade to 8k and be *really* disappointed then?

 

[MarsM4N]

Units sold doesn't tell anything. Even if you sell less cards but increase it's price (Nvidia price gouging) you still make more.

The last 4 years they doubled their gaming revenue. And if dumb customers continue to throw money at them, the gold pile they are sitting on just gets bigger & bigger.

(Source: IG Bank)

 

[xorbe]

Well due to prior pricing, I held onto my previous card until it started dying, then had to buy an obscenely overpriced card as nothing else was remotely available, and now manuf msrp is sky high with little improvement in $$$$ per perf, so again I'll be using my current card as long as possible, to offset the price gouging. I'll just have to select medium or high, instead of high or ultra, or lower the resolution. Oh no, anyway.

 

[Readlight]

Inflation, My income is wery bad.

 

[CGLBESE]

When you see that 1060-1070 class can still game in FHD smoothly; no wonder why people are not buying new chips. Add inflation and significant loss of revenue for about 50+% people into the mix, and this drop makes more sense.

And a last strike to this situation: in 2017-2018, you could go for highest GPU range for $/€400-500 and still play FHD max details or 1440 medium/high... equivalent category is now twice the price. And RT thingies are not appealling enough yet to push most of gamers into these RT oriented gens.

The only positive point I can identify is lower power consumption for the same perf.

Still waiting to replace my Vega56.

 

[Deleted member 177333]

Great to see people vote with their wallets.

 

[dragontamer5788]

The last 4 years they doubled their gaming revenue

But how much of that "gaming revenue" was cryptocoin miners?

The miners certainly weren't using "datacenter cards" (A100) or "workstation cards" (Quatro) to make their mining rigs. They used 'gaming' cards for that.

 

[Dammeron]

Totally unexpected, considering all the "great" options available

Especially here in Europe, where You still have to pay 800-900€ for a 3080...

 

[Tech Ninja]

• Intel: Market share increased by 10.3 percentage points, shipments increased by 4.7 %.
• AMD: Market share decreased by 8.5 percentage points, shipments decreased by 47.6%.
• NVIDIA: Market share decreased by 1.87 percentage points, shipments decreased by 19.7%.
  
  so AMD share of DGPU under 10%

 

[MentalAcetylide]

Unless consoles(i.e. Playstations, etc.) are becoming too expensive, I would imagine more gamers shifting away from computer gaming and going with consoles. Its just getting ridiculous with what they charge for stuff nowadays. On top of that, quite a few of the computer games that get released are sold as unpolished "betas" or in some cases "still under development" alphas.

 

[TheDeeGee]

Great to see people vote with their wallets.

Well next year i will get 4070 no matter what, waited long enough, my 1070 is eol.

 

[ixi]

Especially here in Europe, where You still have to pay 800-900€ for a 3080...

People still buying 3080 for that much? Amazing.

Well next year i will get 4070 no matter what, waited long enough, my 1070 is eol.

Nice upgrade, but for now 4070 looks like a scam... If by latest rumors 4060 is equal to 3070 then that is so sad... 4070 my gues 3070 ti or maybe 3080.

 

[Minus Infinity]

Thank you Mr Huang, your work is now done.

 

[Chrispy_]

dGPU sales decreased by 33% in Q3, but the ETH merge happened in Q4.

 

[Bleomycin]

My local microcenter is completely sold out of every 4080 and 4090 sku and likely will be for the foreseeable future. They don't seem to be having any trouble selling the high end regardless of the value proposition.

 

[Nordic]

JPR: GPU Sales See Biggest Quarterly Drop Since 2009 Recession.
Me: Finally upgrade from a 1060 3gb to a 6750 xt for $390.

I'm sure if I waited a few more months I could find a better deal. Maybe if the 6950 xt or 3090 ti fall under $200 I will pick one up. I doubt it though.

 

[JAB Creations]

My local microcenter is completely sold out of every 4080 and 4090 sku and likely will be for the foreseeable future. They don't seem to be having any trouble selling the high end regardless of the value proposition.

If they're sold out of 4080s then that really doesn't say much about the intelligence of people in your area. Tom from Moore's Law is Dead reported that the stores he has information on barely sold a third of their 4080s.

 

[prtskg]

• Intel: Market share increased by 10.3 percentage points, shipments increased by 4.7 %.
• AMD: Market share decreased by 8.5 percentage points, shipments decreased by 47.6%.
• NVIDIA: Market share decreased by 1.87 percentage points, shipments decreased by 19.7%.
  
  so AMD share of DGPU under 10%

These data include integrated graphics of AMD and Intel so it's wrong to extrapolate DGPU market share from here. I miss DGPU data.