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How will Artificial Intelligence change the nature of jobs?

Subaru86

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How will AI(Artificial Intelligence)change the nature of jobs?

I am not talking about A.I as it is today or but in the future lets say 2050-2100 and I am talking about all sorts of AI not just narrow AI

Will it be just that A.I will eliminate the dangerous/monotous tasks allowing people to perform more productive tasks?

Or the effects of A.I is over-hyped/sensationalised by the news and it will only ever slightly increase unemployment rate from the current percentage now to 20%-40% worldwide

Or will it cause a utopia/dystopia in 2060 where people get a universal basic income and where people do whatever they want such as travel, gaming or if people really want to work volunteer at a museum etc and let AI take all the jobs and everyday will be like a weekend/public holiday.

Many Thanks
 

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I am not talking about A.I as it is today or but in the future lets say 2050-2100 and I am talking about all sorts of AI not just narrow AI
That's like asking in the first years on the Industrial Revolution how it will impact jobs, but not right then, but around Henry Ford's time. We can try to guess, but no one knows.
 
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We are dramatically overestimating the capability of AI. In fact calling what we have today "AI" is severally inaccurate, these system are not even close to displaying anything even remotely close to intelligence, "machine learning" is a more accurate term. Hell, we don't even have a cohesive definition of intelligence.

The bigger threat for jobs is not AI but the fact that some of these jobs will be eliminated altogether as we find more efficient methods of producing products/services.
 
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I am not talking about A.I as it is today or but in the future lets say 2050-2100 and I am talking about all sorts of AI not just narrow AI
How about 2030-2040 as it will start to become integrated in the workforce on business you thought had little need of it today. It will be similar to the 80's with computers, people lacking those skills will simply be pushed aside.

Will it be just that A.I will eliminate the dangerous/monotous tasks allowing people to perform more productive tasks?
Starting around the 80's and into the 90's you saw more and more investment companies pushing companies to move employees from "assets" column to the "liability" column. A.I. doesn't get sick, take vacations, ask for money, need insurance, have kids, get injured, leave jobs, etc., etc., Businesses will replace any and all position that make sense with A.I. Positions we don't even think of today.

Or the effects of A.I is over-hyped/sensationalised by the news and it will only ever slightly increase unemployment rate from the current percentage now to 20%-40% worldwide
The current world un-employment rate is under 6%. Germany during the great depression hit the high 20"s (28-29% maybe) and that did not end well for anyone. You want see what 40% global unemployment rate is like? Many people here would probably not live through it.

Or will it cause a utopia/dystopia in 2060 where people get a universal basic income and where people do whatever they want such as travel, gaming or if people really want to work volunteer at a museum etc and let AI take all the jobs and everyday will be like a weekend/public holiday.

We can't even do that now. What you will see is a larger distortion of wealth between the rich and the poor with less and less people in the true middle class. Rich people...do not...share money.

We are dramatically overestimating the capability of AI. In fact calling what we have today "AI" is severally inaccurate, these system are not even close to displaying anything even remotely close to intelligence, "machine learning" is a more accurate term. Hell, we don't even have a cohesive definition of intelligence.

The bigger threat for jobs is not AI but the fact that some of these jobs will be eliminated altogether as we find more efficient methods of producing products/services.
agreed, I'm using A.I as more of a general term for computers that will be "more efficient methods of producing products/services" than human employees.

That's like asking in the first years on the Industrial Revolution how it will impact jobs, but not right then, but around Henry Ford's time. We can try to guess, but no one knows.
we don't know the "how" obviously but we do know the goal which is to cut cost (eliminate jobs) and increase profit (increase the stock price for the wealthy)
 

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AI has different interpretations. Will computers one day become sentient and capable of thought? Probably, but who can say when that will be.
 

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How will AI(Artificial Intelligence)change the nature of jobs?

Barely at all. At least, not compared to the current status quo.


This "automated palletizing" is called control systems engineering. Decidedly NOT an AI. THIS is how shit gets done, and has been getting done, for the past few decades. As control systems become cheaper, more reliable, and easier to use / deploy, we'll get better-and-better manufacturing numbers in general. AI doesn't really do that (at least, not as cheapy / effectively as classic control systems).

Control systems will automatically build cars in a lights out environment (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lights_out_(manufacturing)). Toyota famously has "lights out" factories making a number of components for their cars. I do believe the final assembly is still manual (humans are best at "gluing" things together: that is wielding or screwing random loose parts together), but a huge slew of things are fully automated these days.

--------

AI at best will be seen as a solution to a few control system edge-cases. But fundamentally: we already live in a highly autonomous world, even without any deep learning / machine learning / AI stuff going on.

---------

Wait, what about AIs that write computer programs for us? Oh, you mean compilers ?? Which automatically convert sequential code into parallel code these days? (autovectorization, OpenCL, CUDA). Or what about AIs that can design computer chips? Oh, you mean synthesis and binary-decision diagrams, and automatic-verification of computer chip designs? Yeah, that's already happening. Whatever automation is "left over" for AI to solve is going to be a pretty narrow niche: register allocation (aka: turning a typical C computer program into Assembly, by thinking about RAX vs RBX and optimally assigning variables) is provably solved and optimized by graph coloring. We're already aware of the 100% best possible solution, at least for any program that fits inside of your analysis routines. (Granted: graph coloring is NP-complete, but that NP-completeness applies to AI just as much as it does to any other search tree program you make).

At best, an AI might graph-color a bit better than current register allocation algorithms, but it'd otherwise be "doing the same thing" as classical algorithms, and not really making a major leap.
 
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How will AI(Artificial Intelligence)change the nature of jobs?


Or will it cause a utopia/dystopia in 2060 where people get a universal basic income and where people do whatever they want such as travel, gaming or if people really want to work volunteer at a museum etc and let AI take all the jobs and everyday will be like a weekend/public holiday.
Only in their dreams while connected to the matrix.
 
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What you will see is a larger distortion of wealth between the rich and the poor with less and less people in the true middle class. Rich people...do not...share money.
^^^ This

Computers are getting more sophisticated all the time. Before long they will be "smart" enough to make some human workers obsolete... meaning that the person has *no* viable task that they can perform better or at a lower cost than a machine. These people will be unemployable, and as the machines continue to become more sophisticated, the number of persons in this category will grow.

Every developed country in the world runs on a consumer capitalist economic model. That's because it has been proven the most successful since the industrial revolution began. The consumer/worker is vital part of this system, because the prosperity of the capitalist depends on the prosperity of the consumer. The capitalist makes profit from making and selling stuff to consumers. If consumer income and wealth doesn't increase, then the capitalist's wealth can't either for long. It's a symbiotic relationship that never before existed in human history. Previously serfs, peasants, and slaves provided valuable labor, but there was no incentive for the wealthy to allow them to keep more than a bare minimum of their production.

Consumer capitalism also favors a democratic government, human rights, and freedom. Why? The general population will work harder and be more efficient and more willing to fight wars if they are free, which ultimately increases the power and wealth of the capitalists.

Our socio-ecomomic system will soon be obsolete. As the economically useless humans become a greater % of the population, consumer capitalism will no longer be viable. From the capitalist standpoint the consumer is no longer a vital part of the system, but rather something that merely consumes resources while providing no value to them. We will not descend to our previous level of serfs and peasants. Those positions will be taken by machines. From the standpoint of the wealthy, the unemployable persons will be like vermin. Instead they can use those resources for themselves, and use robotic slaves to build whatever they want directly and much more efficiently than ever before. They will experience a lifestyle and degree of luxury and power that we can't even imagine today, but it will only be for a few.

What do you suppose will happen to our human rights and living standards then? I don’t expect this change to happen swiftly. There is only so much you can do in one generation before people really notice and complain. The necessary computer sophistication will probably take another 30 to 40 years before a majority of the population becomes unemployable. Most likely welfare will be expanded, and propaganda will continue to pit the middle class (who experience higher taxes and declining living standards) against the lower class (who don't work and receive the dole). Divide and conquer. But the population will be mollified and distracted one way or another while the number of unemployable persons grows. I imagine in a short few decades most of us will be "happily" spending nearly all our time in VR pods hooked up to feeding and evacuation tubes... until we die. And that is an optimistic scenario. Useless humans might be eliminated much more swiftly, especially if there is a shooting battle for world domination.

The alternative? That democracy and freedom are actually strong enough for the interests and wishes of the majority to win out over the desires of the powerful few. And so we share in the bounty and all live better and more interesting lives without needing to work.

Trends are not encouraging. The greatly increased spying and surveillance, along with a repeal of some legal protections, is one disturbing aspect. Totalitarian control that is well beyond anything seen before in the world is now possible. Another is the globalization and “free trade” project that the US embarked on several decades ago. This was sold as something that would make us all richer, and that could have been the case. Instead it was structured from the beginning to benefit the wealthy greatly, and result in depressed wages for rest of the population. Even now it is taboo to point this out. Which brings to mind what is probably the most disturbing trend; the apparent success of propaganda to divide the populous 50/50 around issues that are of little importance. This keeps everyone “entertained” and distracted over political theater and indignation over “hot button” issues, and effectively powerless to organize and change anything worthwhile. Democracy may have always been a sham, but this is becoming more obvious at the time when we really need it to work.
 
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These people will be unemployable, and as the machines continue to become more sophisticated, the number of persons in this category will grow.
We actually have a growing class in the united states, the "servant class"
 
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My $0.02 on AI and how it's going to change the world. It's coming and by the year 2100, there's likely maybe 1% of jobs where a human can still do them better then a machine (or for less money at least) and haven't already been automated. We can already see the loss of the low end, entry level jobs in professional fields in areas which would have been considered safe 10-15 years ago. Stuff like paralegals and researchers for lawyers, they can now be replaced with AI systems that will find all the relevant legal documents for you and you no longer have to worry about paying a human. Next step will be the lawyers themselves, and that's likely 10 years away, as an AI can argue better as they can't forget the facts etc, especially if they teach it to lie at least a little. The judges will be the last to go.

This is going to happen throughout the professional and white collar sectors, so pretty much as people retire, they will be replaced by AI and no new humans will be employed. It won't be long before we have to have a universal basic income to ensure that humanity can still live, whilst putting a 99% wealth and company tax on the owners and companies, to ensure that the government is getting money to run the UBI system. The other options will be worse if this doesn't happen, either we will become corporate slaves or anyone who isn't worth having still will be purged by the wealthy who hold all the power. We may also just manage to create an AI that hits the singularity and they will eliminate humanity, end of story, we'd just be an annoying pest to it.

The position I'm going to be most interested in seeing when it is replaced by AI is the CEO position, as that will be the sign that business has decided that humans are obsolete in every respect.
 
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This is going to happen throughout the professional and white collar sectors, so pretty much as people retire, they will be replaced by AI and no new humans will be employed. It won't be long before we have to have a universal basic income to ensure that humanity can still live, whilst putting a 99% wealth and company tax on the owners and companies, to ensure that the government is getting money to run the UBI system. The other options will be worse if this doesn't happen, either we will become corporate slaves or anyone who isn't worth having still will be purged by the wealthy who hold all the power. We may also just manage to create an AI that hits the singularity and they will eliminate humanity, end of story, we'd just be an annoying pest to it.
It's important to imagine what system would be most efficient... since it's the efficient system that survives. Taxing businesses at a high level to support a bunch of useless humans so they can consume and pollute and cause problems... is not efficient. The wealthy can have AI do and build what they want directly. They don't need to siphon profits from the economic activity of the masses. Most of that activity is making products and services for the masses. This will be phased out... ie we will get poorer.

I believe we will get a UBI, but it won't be large (closer to subsistence). It will be a temporary measure until most humans are phased out of the system. Freedom and rights will be greatly curtailed. Most people will spend their time in high density VR pods. Eventually the human population will be very small; slaves kept for entertainment value. And this is the optimistic scenario assuming that the AI is kept under control.
 
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Remember how Elon thought he will make nearly fully automated factory for cars?

And remember how it ended? :D

True AI would most likely need 3 laws of robotics (from Asimov) otherwise we would face very fast removal of mankind (deserved, but nevertheless unwelcomed).

Apart that, true AI could replace basically everything.

Will it? Nope.

If futurism teaches us anything its that "Future is always much different to what we expected and usually takes very different turns than we expected."

No flying cars yet, not even functional hoverboard. :D
 
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True AI would most likely need 3 laws of robotics (from Asimov) otherwise we would face very fast removal of mankind (deserved, but nevertheless unwelcomed).

The 3 laws of robotics are flawed on purpose. Asimov's writings are primarily "exploits" in the 3 laws of robotics. They're meant to be a lesson on why simple rules that seem correct mess up in more realistic / nuanced situations.

The 3 laws of robotics were more about human behavior (since humans approximately follow those 3 rules themselves). Children probably follow those 3 rules innately without question, but Adults who have seen the ills of the world understand that even those rules are meant to be broken.

-----------

Maybe you're talking about Asimov's "Positronic Brain", the fictional advancement in science which allowed human-like intelligence to be built into androids in all of Asimov's stories. In any case, a Neural Net is NOT a Positronic Brain. Neural Nets are a methodology for self-learning (a poorly named branch of Comp. Sci. A more colloquial term is probably "self-categorization"). There's also "reinforcement-learning", where a human has to manually say good vs bad (and then the neural net trains itself on the whims of the "Oracle", the entity which discovers good from bad).

Reinforcement learning (ex: AlphaGo) is highly successful in neural nets. But we're not very far in terms of escaping that specific use case. Applying reinforcement learning outside of perfect-information games is already a huge hassle, let alone ambiguous situations in the real world.
 
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there will not be any jobs because Skynet will have eradicated the human race.....duh!
 
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