Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[the54thvoid]

See! Always been full of foreign types.

You know I'm just playing. It's a rich country/poor country border.

 

[harm9963]

A lot of great beer too

German Mexicans - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[dragontamer5788]

Maryland hospitalizations spiked upwards this week. We used to be ~300 hospitalized, now at 400. %Positive remains below 3%.

It doesn't seem like %Positive is a very useful metric anymore: confirmed cases seems to be more closely correlated to hospitalization trends. (Just eyeballing it. I guess I could run an R^2 test or something, but I kind of forgot how to do proper statistics, lol).

 

[the54thvoid]

This is why Covid hurts. Because of its transmission rate, without a vaccine, the cases can sky rocket. That means a lot of folks in hospital. Most will survive. The deaths are almost a throwaway statistic in this sense. What really causes damage is the effect on everything else. It's a judgement call. Who gets the ICU bed? Covid guy or the one with another life-threatening condition? The UK always had the tagline, 'Keep our NHS safe'. If you keep covid cases down, you can treat other people. If you lose control, you lose all those spare beds. That's the real problem. Not the deaths. Which is why I get so pissed off at ignorant mofo's that harp on about 'being the same as flu'. Flu doesn't overrun hospitals like Covid can.

 

[Vayra86]

I feel your pain. The UK's spiralling right now.

Everything is. We are still in fantasy land thinking this can be controlled without short lockdowns. Regional approach is attrnpted but really half assed so that wont have impact at all. Religious and other groups are still being treated too leniently... under the guise of freedom of religion as if that is somehow on another plane as other freedoms.

Its disgusting to see so much blindness to inevitability. Reminds pf how we approach climate change and overpppulation.

Slowly starting to understand why every odd year some random event or date is announced as the day of judgment... we are blundering fools

 

[HTC]

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:



The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 31397 active cases --- 4458 more --- 636.9 more per day
- 53187 recovered --- 2980 more --- 425.7 more per day
- 2080 fatalities --- 75 more --- 10.7 more per day
- 86664 confirmed infected --- 7513 more --- 1073.9 more per day

- 2791429 tests taken --- 143673 more --- 20524.7 more per day but was last updated October 8th
- 48413 under watch --- 2065 more --- 295 more per day
- 843 hospitalized --- 161 more --- 23 more per day
- 124 in ICU --- 19 more --- 2.7 more per day

Our new infected cases rose significantly VS last week with over 35%: crossed 1000 new daily cases per day, actually being closer to 1100 cases than 1000. Also had a significant increase in hospitalized, with over of 23.6% VS last week.

Failed to get a screenshot of Oct 10th so i had to use situation report's instead.

There's @ least one hospital with ICU @ capacity and a few others close to it, all of which in our Lisbon and Tejo River Valley region: steps are being taken to extend capacity in the region. However, medical staff with ICU training shortage is our current main problem: though we have enough for the CURRENT hospital capacity, it changes when the capacity is extended.

NOT good @ ALL

 

[claes]

Looking forward to the day I can respond to this thread with “like” reacts; stay safe out there!

 

[dragontamer5788]

Looking forward to the day I can respond to this thread with “like” reacts; stay safe out there!

Looks like "wave 2" is hitting Europe now. All waves crest up, but eventually recede. This too shall pass.

 

[Tatty_Two]

UK update as of today, in pictures this time...………………...

The North of England is taking the BIG hit, they have been experiencing increases for 7 weeks now, a number of their cities have been in almost full lockdown (work and education still happening) for 3-4 weeks and numbers have still increased significantly, hence my earlier comments about a fairly large proportion of the population ignoring guidelines, this 2nd spike differs currently from the first as it is much more localised, my area falls under the "Midlands" but thankfully in a relatively low infection area of that region, some regions are very mildly hit.

 

[the54thvoid]

^^ Scientifically, this is purely opinion but I can't help but see a 'visible' correlation with schools and Uni's and the spread getting out of hand. Yeah, we know children don't catch it but they do carry it. Do they then go home and spread it to family. Who then spread it to their 'bubbles'? I think 14% of the spread in the UK was pinned on hospitality but that, to me, looks feasibly as though it's come from another origin, i.e schooling. We had bars and pubs open since Late June?, if not July and August saw a minimal uptick. Schools resumed in August, and September's stats went apocalyptic. The correlation from the available evidence appears blatant. To me, schools are the clear super spreaders, until it's proven otherwise.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Yeah, we know children don't catch it but they do carry it.

Wait, what? I know of at least 2 children that have had it.

Schools resumed in August, and September's stats went apocalyptic. The correlation from the available evidence appears blatant. To me, schools are the clear super spreaders, until it's proven otherwise.

No one is going to argue that point too much. Interestingly, the picture is somewhat rosier stateside, at least in my region. However, we knew this was going to happen. This is reality and it's a part of working through the problem the pandemic has presented and getting on with life.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Wait, what? I know of at least 2 children that have had it.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1240758710646878208

At a minimum, celebrities were spreading misinformation about child immunity. Arguably political, but now that a few months have passed, it is obvious where the falsehoods lay.

Said celebrities continued to push false information, probably for political purposes. (Nothing like national level, but this was clearly smaller scale: local politics. Musk wanted to keep his factories open).

 

[lexluthermiester]

spreading misinformation about child immunity

While I haven't seen that, such would not be surprising at all. Though I do believe immunity is a thing, I think it has nothing to do with age. I had it, my wife didn't. My younger son got it, his twin sister did not. My adult daughter got it, her husband and two children did not. We all live in the same house and have all been tested several times before and after the infections were present here.

(Nothing like national level, but this was clearly smaller scale: local politics. Musk wanted to keep his factories open)

Let's refrain from political stuff in this thread please.

 

[robot zombie]

Wait, what? I know of at least 2 children that have had it.

Was gonna say... I know of about a dozen. One of the parents got severely ill and spent some time in the hospital getting oxygen. Fortunately he is okay.

No one is going to argue that point too much. Interestingly, the picture is somewhat rosier stateside, at least in my region. However, we knew this was going to happen. This is reality and it's a part of working through the problem the pandemic has presented and getting on with life.

The issue most people have is that any of these social "hub" points that give rise to lots of spreading directly contradict with getting on with life, because past a certain point, the only option left is to close them back down. Things have been somewhat okay here in Florida but concerns are quickly rising over essentially removing all of the restrictions. Which is leading to lots of people gathering everywhere with no precautions taken at all. I know that a lot of people are antsy to get on with things after so much time, but I feel the confidence for us in FL is misplaced. Looking at the stats, we have things about as "under control" as the last re-opening ~May. By June we would see the start of the largest spike the state had seen. It was a disaster with a capital D. The one that at the time put us on the map as one of the "hottest states" in the country.

It seems like you can get away with one or two things loosening at a time, but past a certain threshold, where too many open "hubs" meet via people crossing over more than two, is when things get majorly out of control. We'll be an interesting case study here in FL. School re-openings were... mixed. There was little emphasis or clarity on how many students were actually getting it, or how that translated to adult cases. All that really surfaced were reports upon reports of classes quarantining. Within 2 weeks we saw hundreds of kids go back home, just in the tri-county. Passed 1000 in no time flat. But nobody really knows what happened from there, or how far the consequences might have reached. The general attitude among people here is precisely that "life goes on" deal. Meaning the between the time when their child was exposed and when they found out, it is possible that they were exposed by proxy and then took that on their outings, where many of them and the people around them are leaving a lot of openings. But it really is kind of a big question mark. There's not a lot of information to be found.

Data transparency has generally been garbage though... there's always some scandal going on with fingers getting pointed first at Quest, and now Helix. All over larger quantities of missing results in the reports. I don't get it. It would tilt the % positive lower, but means little if the bare positivity rate rises with all tests accounted for. I would figure more people getting tested means more people getting symptoms (hence the prompt to test) and more people having known contact. This will mean more negatives, too. But still points to an uptick.

Either way the fact remains that in terms of day-by-day positives we're either flat, or showing slight increases in cases. And that could be the clincher for how reopening the state ultimately goes. I'd wager part of the reason we leveled-out/slid back (instead of steadily decreasing, as we had been) was because the schools were opened back up. It's difficult to gauge how things are really going to shake down. Logic dictates that adding points of contact/exposure will increase cases. The question will be how, and by how much?

Sometimes to start a fire, just lighting any part of the kindling isn't enough. It'll smoulder and fizzle. It only really gets going when you light it on multiple sides at once.

 

[dragontamer5788]

While I haven't seen that, such would not be surprising at all. Though I do believe immunity is a thing, I think is has nothing to do with age. I had it, my wife didn't. My younger son got it, his twin sister did not. My adult daughter got it, her husband and two children did not. We all live in the same house and have all been tested several times before and after the infections were present here.

You can get the antibody test to check for immunity. Don't just guess at these things. If you want to know, you should check.

If your body was ever exposed to COVID19, your blood will have the antiviral antibodies flowing through it. If those antibodies are detected, you're immune, and can therefore serve greater roles in the community. Well, probably immune, there's a degree of false positives and false negatives, but its still good information to have.

The main question is how long does immunity last? The flu's immunity is only ~6 months, for example. But some other diseases are lifetime immunity.

 

[lexluthermiester]

You can get the antibody test to check for immunity. Don't just guess at these things. If you want to know, you should check.

If your body was ever exposed to COVID19, your blood will have the antiviral antibodies flowing through it. If those antibodies are detected, you're immune, and can therefore serve greater roles in the community. Well, probably immune, there's a degree of false positives and false negatives, but its still good information to have.

Some of that is incorrect. Just because a person has had it and recovered doesn't mean one is immune. A person can be reinfected. The potential immunity I'm taking about is the fact that some people are just not getting it because their body either kills it quickly or is unaffected by it at all.

The main question is how long does immunity last? The flu's immunity is only ~6 months, for example. But some other diseases are lifetime immunity.

True.

 

[hat]

All the kids going back to school is going to be a big problem... especially without any help from summer heat and UV bombardment. I'm not too old to remember what school was like... 20 kids or more with barely any space between desks, hallways stuffed to the gills with barely any room to move during class changes. It is easily imaginable that schools opening back up are a huge contributor.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Washington Post has a great state-by-state diagram for COVID19, showing which states are doing the best, or worst per capita. It seems like the Midwest is in the middle of a resurgence.

 

[John Naylor]

I agree that political specifics and "blamestorming" are best avoided as it just leads to side discussions and no minds will ever be changed, but, for example ..... yesterday after losing a football game, a college football coach called for the university to lift the restrictions and fill the stadium with 90,000 people so they could have an edge over the visiting team ? Really ? how many lives are worth that extra edge ?

Frustrated Mullen Says Gators Should 'Pack The Swamp' After Loss

Florida Gators head coach Dan Mullen wants Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at full capacity, pandemic be damned.

www.si.com

A wedding in Maine was attended by 65 people (with up to 100 on site) .... As of September 20 ... there's been 270 new infections and 8 deaths, none of the 8 were people who attended the wedding but died because someone brought the infection home.

When you see discussions about the dominance of the SEC in college football, .. the SEC has won 10 of the 14 championships, and IIRC, played in all but 1 championship games. Fans claim it's because of TV money, favoritism, and many other reasons and like politics, no one is going to convince folks on either side to change their opinion. Same is true with brand loyalties for PC componenets. But the fact remains, when you look at the NFL Draft, for 14 years running, the SEC has "won" the NFL draft placing more players in the NFL every year for 14 years in a row .... and by large margins. That kinda takes it outta the realm of opinion.

Different states face different challenges ... States with < 10 people per square mile are not facing the kind of challenge that states with multiples cities in excess of 1 million people. People's health is the main focus here .... and there is certainly nothing to be gained blamestorming. But we have to be most concerned about where the new infection rate is high and where it is is low ... if it's rising, then whatever they are doing is not enough ... where it's falling, then what those folks are doing is working. This is simple .... math and science are not subject to opinion. If you live in a state at the top of the list, what they are doing is not working ...the states at the bottom of the list are doing it right.

Every aspect of life, regulation, habits, mask policy, habits, work schedules, whatever should be evaluated. Any commonality among those at the top indicates a probable cause of increased infection .... any commonality among those at the bottom will indicate a high likelihood of "best practices". While I do not see any benefit to discussing political ideology in an open forum, we also can't say let's not consider it as a contributing factor in each state's ability to cut infection rates.

As of today, the worst to best are:
(This table is sorted by places with the most cases per 100,000 residents in the last seven days )

North Dakota 459
South Dakota 448
Montana 339
Wisconsin 305
Utah 264
Guam 261
Idaho 236
Nebraska 232
Missouri 218
Iowa 215
Oklahoma 199
Arkansas 189
Wyoming 188
Tennessee 186
Alaska 169
Kansas 162
Mississippi 150
Minnesota 143
Indiana 139
Kentucky 136
Illinois 130
Alabama 125
North Carolina 123
Nevada 118
New Mexico 116
Rhode Island 115
South Carolina 111
Louisiana 99
Texas 98
Delaware 90
Colorado 89
Puerto Rico 88
Virginia 83
Georgia 83
Michigan 82
Ohio 81
West Virginia 81
Pennsylvania 74
Florida 67
Maryland 66
Washington, D.C. 63
Arizona 63
New Jersey 60
Massachusetts 59
California 58
Oregon 57
Washington 53
New York 50
Connecticut 49
Hawaii 46
New Hampshire 36
Maine 16
Northern Mariana Islands 13
Vermont 13
U.S. Virgin Islands 4
American Samoa 0

 

[lexluthermiester]

Washington Post has a great state-by-state diagram for COVID19, showing which states are doing the best, or worst per capita. It seems like the Midwest is in the middle of a resurgence.

View attachment 171524

This set of graphs is interesting as it shows a difference from state(territory) to state as well as from geographic region to region.

 

[EarthDog]

All the kids going back to school is going to be a big problem... especially without any help from summer heat and UV bombardment. I'm not too old to remember what school was like... 20 kids or more with barely any space between desks, hallways stuffed to the gills with barely any room to move during class changes. It is easily imaginable that schools opening back up are a huge contributor.

im not sure (in ohio) most districts have gone back all in. I know around my area, Columbus, they are in hybrid mode... so classes are cut in half, essentially. The kids are in two groups, divided by last name (a-m, n-z) and one goes M/W the other T/Th..every other Friday. Keeps class size low. In the mid to low teens.

 

[HTC]

A wedding in Maine was attended by 65 people (with up to 100 on site) .... As of September 20 ... there's been 270 new infections and 8 deaths, none of the 8 were people who attended the wedding but died because someone brought the infection home.

This is a "perfect example" of why it's so dangerous to be complacent while facing this virus: it's why it's IMPERATIVE to follow health guidelines

 

[harm9963]

Texas should be a Country and Harris County a State

 

[harm9963]

Were open for business !

 

[HTC]

Were open for business !View attachment 172141

Do you have access to fatalities by age, similar to that "age groups impacted", on the top center of this pic? A comparison between the two should show a striking difference since we know that the elderly are the worst hit age groups.