Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[Tatty_Two]

Why the wait? Isn't it bad enough now?

Don't forget: it will continue to get worse for a minimum of 5 days and up to 14 days AFTER the lockdown starts, due to the incubation period.

Mainly because we are again offering a Furlough scheme so employers need to decide who will come into work (who can't work from home) and who will get furloughed (Government paying 80% of salary up to a maximum), so at the point of lockdown it is unlikely anyone will get fired albeit on the first lockdown which was 3 months some got fired after because there was insufficient work for them, hopefully that need not happen after a 4 week stint. Obviously for Hospitality pretty much every worker will get furloughed.

We are again offering small/medium business support based around interest free loans, again to a maximum amount.

 

[HTC]

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:



The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 60026 active cases --- 12533 more --- 1790.4 more per day
- 81771 recovered --- 12894 more --- 1842 more per day
- 2544 fatalities --- 228 more --- 32.6 more per day
- 144341 confirmed infected --- 25655 more --- 3665 more per day

- 3361537 tests taken --- 204546 more --- 29220.9 more per day but was last updated October 29th
- 64805 under watch --- 6056 more --- 865.1 more per day
- 2122 hospitalized --- 548 more --- 78.3 more per day
- 284 in ICU --- 54 more --- 7.7 more per day

Our new infected cases rose significantly VS last week, yet again, with 36.7%: 3665 new daily cases per day. Also had a significant increase in hospitalized, with nearly 35% increase and 12.3% increase in average daily ICU, when compared to last week, but the biggest increase came with fatalities, nearly 68.9%, with the last 3 days having the highest ever daily deaths on record, thus far.

 

[the54thvoid]

Just 'wow'.

Just shy of 100,000 cases per day.

 

[harm9963]

Just 'wow'.

Just shy of 100,000 cases per day.

View attachment 174053

 

[dragontamer5788]

Thousands attend Halloween party in Utah County until police arrive

Several thousand people attended a Halloween party near Utah Lake on Saturday night, days after organizers claimed their event had been canceled.

www.ksl.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1322542573186129921

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1322924280099807234

Hmm... not a good sign. Halloween is a big party in the USA, but so is Thanksgiving, and Christmas. If the USA's citizens continue to have parties this could be a problem.

 

[harm9963]

Texas goes as Harris county and Houston goes

.

 

[Tatty_Two]

First day of 4 week lockdown in England today, I can confirm things are quiet & peaceful yesterday saw the biggest jump since the peak of the first wave with over 25,000 new infections and sadly 492 deaths.

 

[Vayra86]

Thousands attend Halloween party in Utah County until police arrive

Several thousand people attended a Halloween party near Utah Lake on Saturday night, days after organizers claimed their event had been canceled.

www.ksl.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1322542573186129921

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1322924280099807234

Hmm... not a good sign. Halloween is a big party in the USA, but so is Thanksgiving, and Christmas. If the USA's citizens continue to have parties this could be a problem.

There is hope! Perhaps a blue election outcome can change the curve a little bit.... 264-214...

 

[dragontamer5788]

Maryland now above 4% positive, but we stay below 600 hospitalizations (for now).

It seems like +Cases is solidly growing at this point. We've hit over +1000 today. Its not quite as bad as August yet, but the warning signs are definitely popping up now.

 

[Tomgang]

Today is a serious day in Denmark and not in a god way. Specially for a area called North Jutland. Minkfarms in Denmark has been seriously infected by Covid-19 and the worst part
is that on some farms, this virus has mutated to a degreed that danish goverment say it can maybe prevent a fully working vaccine and that can effect the entire world, if this virus spread outside Denmark. Yes this new virus variant can infect humans. We have now 12 comfirmed cases. But at least it is not more deadly or dangeous than the current virus version.

So today danish goverment has taken a very serious choise today. All mink in Denmark has to be put dow immediately and by that destroy an entire industri. That is around 14-17 millions animals. A huge task to perform. This also means 7 municipality in the north of denmark. Has been put in full lock down. This effect just under 300000 people. This is critical to get under control, cause if not. The entire country can end up in a full lockdown again. Not because the virus is directly out of control. But this mutate virus has to be stop now, else this can effect a vaccine and if it spreads outside to europe and other countries. Potentially begin a new pandemic.

As the danish goverment said. If this virus is not controlled now, North Jutland can be the next Wuhan.

BBC among others has covered this as well: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54818615

Else the situation in Denmark is that it seems with the latest ristrictions, the virus is not stop from spreading, but at least comfirmed cases has been stable around 1000-1300 cases a day. But it also means, the virus is not controlled to a degree were we can see the virus going down in numbers. So the virus is still spreading, but not like we have seens in other countries like UK and Belgium yet. But cases are high, to high if you ask me. So a virus out of control, is still a possibility for sure.

 

[Tatty_Two]

France is the worst at the moment I think for infection rates in Europe, yesterday saw almost 55,000 new cases and deaths around 800 per day, I always look to France if only because they have a very similar population size although they don't have the density we do here, I really do hope now that this 4 week lockdown of ours will stem the flow a little because if we don't we could easily move into France's numbers which are currently more than twice our rate but I think they are about 3 weeks ahead of us with this 2nd wave, things are not looking good.

 

[dragontamer5788]

With 609 hospitalized today and +1541 COVID19 cases, I think its safe to say that Maryland is beyond its August "2nd wave". We're now the most dangerous in COVID19 numbers since the first wave.

 

[HTC]

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:



The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 76647 active cases --- 16621 more --- 2376.4 more per day
- 99781 recovered --- 18010 more --- 2572.9 more per day
- 2896 fatalities --- 352 more --- 50.3 more per day
- 179324 confirmed infected --- 34983 more --- 4997.6 more per day

- 3642907 tests taken --- 281370 more --- 40195.7 more per day but was last updated November 5th
- 90506 under watch --- 6056 more --- 865.1 more per day
- 2522 hospitalized --- 400 more --- 57.1 more per day
- 378 in ICU --- 94 more --- 13.4 more per day

On November 4th, there were an additional 3570 cases reported that were actually from October 30th to November 3rd and weren't reported before due to "laboratory report delay in our Northern region" (mostly from one laboratory), as shown in the pic below:

This means the actual cases from November 4th were 3927, thus this day wasn't actually our "worst day ever" in daily case numbers. I still expect that 7497 number to be beaten sometime next week ... but we shall see ...

Our new infected cases rose virtually the same VS last week, with 36.6%: almost 5K new daily cases per day. Hospitalized increased less than last week but still had a significant increase, ICU had the biggest increase VS last week with 74% and fatalities had just over 54% increase VS last week. Also of note is the increase in testing, with over 35% VS last week.

Starting tomorrow, we'll be in Emergency State again, with the intention of being in place until early next year. However, and due to Portuguese Law, it will have to be continuously renewed every 15 days in order to be in place until next year. There will be 121 counties with more severe restrictions VS the rest, for now. Don't have more details on this, for now.


On a more personal note, following the 2 cases announced this Monday in the factory where i work, there were 2 more discovered Tuesday so everyone in the factory ended up being tested by Thursday (there is a significant amount of workers not working every Friday during November due to layoff): i know my result was negative but don't yet know if there were more positive cases (or inconclusive).

This happened on the week i have my birthday so i opted to cancel the "party" (same format as my sister's, described below), just in case.

Last Monday was my sister's birthday and the main family got together just for the "cake and presents ceremony" (7 people in total, from 4 different households): we wore masks indoors @ all times, except when eating the cake, avoided any hugs and tried to keep some distance between us.

Even though my test came back negative there's still the possibility, however unlikely, that it was a false negative so i'll continue to self isolate like i have been doing this week, for @ least another week.

 

[harm9963]

Staying home!

 

[Tatty_Two]

We have little choice!

 

[dragontamer5788]

Pfizer's COVID19 vaccine is over 90% effective.

There are three other vaccines being developed. But the Dow (Stock Market Index) went +1600 on the news. Its good news for sure.

 

[68Olds]

I'll just leave this here...

Pfizer CEO calls Covid vaccine a 'great day for humanity' and a 'light at the end of the tunnel'

"I think we can see light at the end of the tunnel" on the pandemic, Pfizer's Albert Bourla told CNBC on Monday.

www.cnbc.com

 

[EarthDog]

Pfizer's COVID19 vaccine is over 90% effective.

There are three other vaccines being developed. But the Dow (Stock Market Index) went +1600 on the news. Its good news for sure.

I'll just leave this here...

Pfizer CEO calls Covid vaccine a 'great day for humanity' and a 'light at the end of the tunnel'

"I think we can see light at the end of the tunnel" on the pandemic, Pfizer's Albert Bourla told CNBC on Monday.

www.cnbc.com

Great news! That's half the battle... now to get people to take it....

 

[Tatty_Two]

Pfizer's COVID19 vaccine is over 90% effective.

There are three other vaccines being developed. But the Dow (Stock Market Index) went +1600 on the news. Its good news for sure.

I am expecting by Xmas there will be 3 at least with 80+ effectiveness, there appears to be already some work combining 2 of them (and I think Pfizer's vaccine is one of the two) that have very different approaches in order to get a single shot 95% vaccine but that obviously is likely to come later. Globally it was always expected to be more effective combining approaches into one solution.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Great news! That's half the battle... now to get people to take it....

The next step is mass production and delivery. Which is non-trivial but solvable:

However there are logistical challenges, as the vaccine has to be kept in ultra-cold storage at below minus 80C.

Anyone who can store and transport liquid nitrogen (-196C) can accomplish -80C. But finding an easier to use vaccine will be necessary to get to areas with less infrastructure.

----

EDIT: Looks like 90% efficacy is only after two shots. With one shot, you're only at 80% effective immunity. Now we're at a decision point: 1-shot for everyone, or 2-shots for everyone? We can distribute the vaccine to twice as many people if we only give 1x shot. As such, 2x as many people with 80% immunity seems better for the community than 1x as many people with 90% immunity. Lets the logistics / politics argument begin!!

And of course, there's no damn way one company will make enough doses. When the other companies come out with their vaccines, we'll also have to think about how to distribute those. (If a cheaper 50% effective vaccine is made, how should that be distributed? Will people get confused? etc. etc.)

 

[dragontamer5788]

It only took 3 days to go from 600-hospitalized to 700-hospitalized.

The trendline is clearly accelerating. I've been lax about meeting up with some family members through the Sept. lull... but I think I'll be more strict with meetups in the near future. At this rate, I'm probably going to say no to the inevitable Thanksgiving invitation, unless Maryland changes things very soon.

The governor has taken notice as the 5% positivity rate has been broken. The governor is prepping a speech for tomorrow. The %Positive rate has grown much faster than anticipated: we're clearly in the midst of a dangerous surge.

Maryland is currently "stage 3", which is nearly fully open. 75% capacity in restaurants, churches, bars. Baltimore has closed all non-food bars, so localities are beginning to take action before the Governor has done anything. Returning to stage2 or even stage1 seems like the safe thing to do, but I'll have to wait till tomorrow to see what our Governor wants to do.

 

[lexluthermiester]

The problem with these "vaccines" is that they are not a cure. And what happens when the virus mutates?

 

[Tatty_Two]

The problem with these "vaccines" is that they are not a cure. And what happens when the virus mutates?

Is it really that relevant? If you get herd immunity and the virus then mutates the position is the same, a vaccine just lessens the risk, if just 60% take the vaccine, most of them should be OK, for those that aren't (based on the 90+% effectiveness which will improve) they are no worse off than those that don't take it, if 40% don't take the vaccine 37% (estimate based on current US death rate of around 3%) should be OK, the 3% may or may not die although immunity levels and period will fluctuate hugely, it's not a cure but it accelerates towards a cure and with less risk …… eventually.

There are plenty of vaccines out there for plenty of diseases that have over periods of 10 - 30 years pretty much eradicated some pretty nasty things (granted many of them are not viral), once more than half of humanity don't get infected over a period that's the tipping point leading eventually to an ending. Herd immunity is a solution but even some knowledgeable supporters of it acknowledge that one of the main risks is that it too just delays the inevitable, immunity weakens, people catch it again and dependant on their age and condition they slowly move over time closer to those known vulnerability groups and at that point the risks increase.

 

[claes]

The problem with these "vaccines" is that they are not a cure. And what happens when the virus mutates?

What @Tatty_One said, and we create a new vaccine, like we do with influenza serotypes.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Is it really that relevant?

Of course. This is why the cold and flu type virii continue to affect us, they mutate and carry on. COVID is no different. It already mutated in the EU in mink farms.

If you get herd immunity and the virus then mutates the position is the same, a vaccine just lessens the risk, if just 60% take the vaccine, most of them should be OK, for those that aren't (based on the 90+% effectiveness which will improve) they are no worse off than those that don't take it, if 40% don't take the vaccine 37% (estimate based on current US death rate of around 3%) should be OK, the 3% may or may not die although immunity levels and period will fluctuate hugely, it's not a cure but it accelerates towards a cure and with less risk …… eventually.

Fair points all.

There are plenty of vaccines out there for plenty of diseases that have over periods of 10 - 30 years pretty much eradicated some pretty nasty things (granted many of them are not viral), once more than half of humanity don't get infected over a period that's the tipping point leading eventually to an ending. Herd immunity is a solution but even some knowledgeable supporters of it acknowledge that one of the main risks is that it too just delays the inevitable, immunity weakens, people catch it again and dependent on their age and condition they slowly move over time closer to those known vulnerability groups and at that point the risks increase.

Also fair points. But we need to remind ourselves that these treatments coming out are just that, immuno-treatments, not real and true vaccines.