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Maps for tracking COVID-19

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Benchmark Scores Faster than yours... I'd bet on it. :)
Narrow minded, ineffective and doing more harm than good.
That's certainly a matter of opinion. There are many reputable sources stating otherwise. But science these days tends to fall on way too many deaf ears. I'll put something up, you'll put something else up (maybe), we'll both poopoo the source...someone goes home with their ball. You know the routine. :p

Trying to guilt trip the rest of us for a virus that is easily transmitted and became unstoppable once it had left it's point of origin is more than a bit sad.
What's sad is this POV. This isn't a guilt trip. This is protecting our peers. Our families. Friends. It's not about guilt, it's about doing the right thing for the human race to reduce a death toll.

Shut-downs/lock-downs WILL NOT WORK!
Must have been coincidence then...the statistics. Weird.
Calling ANYONE selfish for wanting to get on with life is itself an act of selfishness, not to mention foolish ignorance.
Disagree... and you misunderstood or are putting words in my mouth. First though, we should define selfish.

(of a person, action, or motive) lacking consideration for others; concerned chiefly with one's own personal profit or pleasure.
The act of selfishness here is not considering the majority of others which it turn does harm to a great number of people because of the virus. These people are concerned chiefly with their own liberties and personal pleasure eschewing all others. Those who are wearing masks are doing so specifically because of others, are they not? Why is this a freedom and liberty thing? If people didn't do these things like refuse to wear a mask or just don't when they sould... have small gatherings... touch too many bubbles... and hear we are...again...worse off...way worse than when we started in multiple fronts. All because of carelessness and inconsiderate people. How do you protect the vulnerable? By everyone stamping this down by other means.
That is open for debate.
hence 'arguable'. :p

EDIT: What zombie said way more eloquently than I care to right now. :)

EDIT: Shit... MAPS thread... data... my fault.
 
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Yeah, we should get back on topic.
 
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Once again it's time to reiterate, nothing is stopping this virus! It is everywhere! Our only choice is to live with it, to take it on and let it run it's course. Protecting the vulnerable is what we need to focus on. Not the whole populace, just the vulnerable. Shut-downs/lock-downs WILL NOT WORK! For such to work, every person on the planet would need to completely isolate and we would need to kill any and all animals that catch and carry the virus. That's just not going to happen. Calling ANYONE selfish for wanting to get on with life is itself an act of selfishness, not to mention foolish ignorance.
That would lead to overwhelmed hospitals having to chose who lives and dies, ala italy. If that's the cost of freedom I'm happy to curtail it here.

Masks were never supposed to stop the virus. They are supposed to slow it down so hospitals can cope, remember? "Flatten the curve?"
 
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EDIT: Shit... MAPS thread... data... my fault.
Oh yes... uh, I wasn't here. You guys did tricked me!

Here, let me fix this:

According to the maps at https://www.covidexitstrategy.org, we now have every state in the USA in a state of "uncontrolled spread"

Woo...

EDIT: It appears Vermont just got it slightly more under control somehow. Wow, that was quick. Also, Lousiana is now "trending poorly" instead of uncontrolled. I'm not sure how one "trends poorly" when they were just in a worse state minutes ago... @rtwjunkie how's it actually going in your state? Some clarification from a state agency that's more reliable you know of perhaps?
 
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Sorry, but did you say it was selfish to wear a mask? How is wearing a mask selfish? How is a mandate that is designed to help others, selfish? I mean shame on the majority for trying to help those 10s of millions who are frail against this virus. To me, that's the ANTITHESIS of being selfish!

I don't get it, honestly. How friggin hard is it to wear a mask, really? The only difference is I'm not dramatically increasing the risk of infecting multiple people and potentially killing someone just by existing and not masking. It's that perspective that got us here today and is making things worse for tomorrow.

If the anti-maskers (and people who don't wear masks at small gatherings) and young didn't have all these get togethers, college parties, etc... we'd likely be in much better shape. Community spread is out of control. I fear now that the 'good news' about a vax came out, it's going to get even worse unless changes are made.. I expect those same anti-maskers and voluntary high-risk takers to now show even more bravado and care even less.

EDIT: No lockdowns in ohio again... but in a couple of weeks if things aren't trending, those high risk places (restaurants, bars, and gyms) will be closed.
I was referring to this, not the masks. Should have made that more clear.

Narrow minded, ineffective and doing more harm than good.

People who are frail should be the ones taking extra special precautions. Trying to guilt trip the rest of us for a virus that is easily transmitted and became unstoppable once it had left it's point of origin is more than a bit sad.

Once again it's time to reiterate, nothing is stopping this virus! It is everywhere! Our only choice is to live with it, to take it on and let it run it's course. Protecting the vulnerable is what we need to focus on. Not the whole populace, just the vulnerable. Shut-downs/lock-downs WILL NOT WORK! For such to work, every person on the planet would need to completely isolate and we would need to kill any and all animals that catch and carry the virus. That's just not going to happen. Calling ANYONE selfish for wanting to get on with life is itself an act of selfishness, not to mention foolish ignorance.

Well... yes, that's what I said :p But that is to say, it still remains to be seen how we would pick out every single vulnerable individual and somehow isolate them from the rest of society, which in that scenario, is assumed to be propagating the disease in a largely unhindered manner (that's how it's presented here in FL, anyway.) It would somewhat work, in theory. But we have NEVER managed that with any disease, without a vaccine. Barring that, there is no known way to simply keep the most vulnerable in any population from getting exposed. It gets extra difficult with a novel disease, because we don't necessarily have a reliable way to identify who is vulnerable. Not to mention, the most vulnerable people are as intertwined with society as everyone else. It is a logistical nightmare.

The point I'm really making is that part of protecting the vulnerable IS minimizing the spread among everyone else. It's the same approach we use with every disease we vaccinate for, only we don't yet have that accessible and effective vaccine. Not everybody can get certain vaccines, and some of those people will be extremely vulnerable. Others simply will not be successfully immunized. Everyone else gets vaccinated regardless of how low the chances are of them contracting it in the first place may be, let alone having a serious go of it... because it reduces the chances of that disease getting to the people who can't be protected otherwise exponentially. The vaccines are given to protect not only healthy people who are at lower risk, but the people who are much more vulnerable than them. Reducing the exposure risk is a large part of vaccination's MO.

And that seems like a small thing, but it is the number one thing that keeps many diseases from routinely knocking out sizeable chunks of vulnerable people who also share this world with the rest of us. Abstract that last sentence out: keeping the majority of people from getting a transmittable disease also keeps the smaller number who would otherwise die from that disease alive. Everything that we do is compensating for the lack of a vaccine - the intended effect is about the same in its nature.
You know you're probably all right and all wrong at the same time.

There is no cure-all for this type of thing. Look at flu. We have vaccines, but we still get it. It still costs society a shitload of money every few seasons. We've learned to live with that expense, and we've reduced the measures to 'vaccinate the most vulnerable' alongside regular 'stay at home, get better' principles. We all share that principle, too. If you have the flu, anyone with common sense would ask you NOT to come to work because you might infect others, making the damage on that little scale, just as 'exponential' as Covid does now on a global scale. We also use general 'distancing' measures if you think of it. You won't be hugging everyone around you when you're all sweaty and feeling shitty.

Because that's what we're STILL looking at. 1M, 2M, 5M deaths on a world pop of our size is nothing. The vast majority of people who gets it, gets mild symptoms and moves on without issues. A smaller percentage seems to have longer lasting issues. And an even smaller percentage will get a severe impact of it, often a combination of high exposure + weak/frail/old physique.

Thing is, and that is where @lexluthermiester 's ideas end and the ones of @robot zombie and @EarthDog begin... we have always taken measures to protect as many people as possible. The definition of 'possible' however has shifted massively since the end of WW2 in the Western world. The state would take care of you in most countries. Healthcare became a big thing, and even today it is taking up an ever bigger chunk of the gross national income year over year. We've gotten used to taking care of ALL vulnerable people - humanism and altruism has defeated evolutionary limitations. With that, the definition of 'common sense' wrt healthcare has also shifted. We say its common sense to save people. Is it, really, on a macro scale? Overpopulation is the root of all of our current issues - including Covid. Covid is merely a symptom of overpopulation - and more will follow, and have already followed and the frequency of those events is increasing rapidly. Check a timeline on it... its perfectly synced with our rate of population growth. In my short life I've seen MKZ, BSE, H5xx (bird's flu), SARS, MERS... the list is growing rapidly - and that's just over 34 years. Its almost a bi-yearly event now that we need to cull or kill something off.

And that is where the discussion goes wrong and we also see generational divides. Older people tend to lean towards 'take care of everyone' because they've seen the rise of better healthcare, but not its downfall and they're not living the working life anymore, for the most part - they're on the receiving end of healthcare. Younger people are and have shown to be willing to take care of everyone too, but 'up to some sort of limit'. This includes many middle-aged/working class people too, and more often than not they're fueling the healthcare system and not on the receiving end of it. And when they do receive - they notice they're paying a bigger, and bigger part of their monthly salary towards healthcare. Insurance cost rises every year, alongside all those other expenses while we're trying to build up our lives. Studies have shown that elderly are going to - or are already - eating up 2/3rd or 3/4th of the national healthcare bill, depending on the average age expection per country. A big part of that is the population pyramid that's slowly turning upside down which means less hands to feed more mouths, but also the never ending technological progress and we quickly say 'if we cán do it, we should' - especially when its 'one of our own', all rationale goes out the window.

And for everyone regardless of age, we have an instinctive response to save as many as possible and procreate to survive. Our general mindset is: more/better/faster/stronger and it defines everything we do and think.

The necessary discussion that is not open enough for debate right now... is that generational divide and our general stance on the limitations of healthcare, the cost of healthcare on society and when 'enough is enough'. Yes, there is a price tag to a human life and even on every year of living it by basic standards, and yes, we're exceeding that beyond every point of reason when it comes to handling Covid.

I think its very logical people question the current modus operandi, as its becoming clearer every day we can't sustain it.
 
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I think its very logical people question the current modus operandi, as its becoming clearer every day we can't sustain it.
There's that too, of course. If only 50% of people get the vaccine like stats are pointing at, it's not going to be a silver bullet for herd immunity, either.
 
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Benchmark Scores Faster than yours... I'd bet on it. :)
...and I'll have zero sympathy for those who choose not to take it.

Anti-vaxers and Anti-maskers.... :wtf: :rolleyes: :kookoo: o_O
 

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I know it's fun to fight but this is more for stats and maps. Can we reserve the verbal fisticuffs for the lounge thread please?
 
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I know it's fun to fight but this is more for stats and maps. Can we reserve the verbal fisticuffs for the lounge thread please?
So easy to get them confused sometimes, especially when others reply to you in the wrong way at the wrong place, but yes, let's course correct.
 

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Well, @the54thvoid reported yesterday that the UK reached the milestone of the first country to reach 50,000 deaths in Europe, today we have another record, the UK saw it's single biggest new infection rate in the last 24 hours since the pandemic started back in February @ 33,470.
 
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Well, @the54thvoid reported yesterday that the UK reached the milestone of the first country to reach 50,000 deaths in Europe, today we have another record, the UK saw it's single biggest new infection rate in the last 24 hours since the pandemic started back in February @ 33,470.
Been studying the numbers and propagation projections. These surges might actually be a good sign, long term. That might sound counter intuitive, but if you think about it, it's actually a good thing. If more of the population gets exposed faster, those sectors of the population will build immunity and will be less impacted from future waves.
 
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Been studying the numbers and propagation projections. These surges might actually be a good sign, long term. That might sound counter intuitive, but if you think about it, it's actually a good thing. If more of the population gets exposed faster, those sectors of the population will build immunity and will be less impacted from future waves.
You literally liked @the54thvoid's post, and then decided to post a non-statistical / non-map message that's trolling for a response.

-------

In any case, today's Maryland news:

1605247315012.png


Overall, the counties, and Governor, has taken steps to move us closer to a lockdown without actually locking us down. Restaurants are 50% capacity statewide, while the most populated counties are now 25% capacity for Restaurants. The church I go to is also subject to the 25% restriction (previously 75%).
 

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Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:

Screenshot from 2020-11-08 19-45-10.png Screenshot from 2020-11-09 20-39-21.png Screenshot from 2020-11-10 19-07-18.png Screenshot from 2020-11-11 14-51-41.pngScreenshot from 2020-11-12 16-26-43.png Screenshot from 2020-11-13 15-33-34.png Screenshot from 2020-11-14 18-03-35.png Screenshot from 2020-11-15 16-58-01.png

The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 88854 active cases --- 12207 more --- 1743.9 more per day
- 125066 recovered --- 25285 more --- 3612.1 more per day
- 3381 fatalities --- 485 more --- 69.3 more per day
- 217301 confirmed infected --- 37977 more --- 5425.3 more per day

- 3853501 tests taken --- 210594 more --- 35099 more per day but was last updated November 11th
- 94604 under watch --- 4098 more --- 585.4 more per day
- 2929 hospitalized --- 407 more --- 58.1 more per day
- 415 in ICU --- 37 more --- 5.3 more per day

The increase in new cases and hospitalizations isn't growing as much VS last week's increase, with the percentages being 8.56% and 1.08% respectively. OTOH, "recovered" had 40.39% increase VS last week's increase and ICU number actually increased just 39.36% of last week's increase. Unfortunately, fatalities increased 37.77% VS last week's increase.

The new cases seem to be or are close to stabilizing but it's still @ a WAY TOO HIGH number :(
 
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I said a couple of months ago, mark my word !
 

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I said a couple of months ago, mark my word !
Its so obvious... but this whole second wave was predicted as early as March 2020. Even then Oxford researchers already said we would be in and out of lockdowns and restrictions for years to come.

Our governments however prefer to act responsively the world over, instead of pro-actively. Yet, ALL the countries that had pro-active measures in place, got the lowest infection and death rates and as a result, the lowest hit on economies.

Gotta love human nature.
 

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Keep discussion to stats, maps and relevant empirical data please. Moved a few posts by request to the lounge Covid thread.

Remember this is a science thread so speculation on policy and state/country failures is better suited to the lounge.

Thanks.
 
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1605999461838.png


The weekend-blips are real. Last week, it dropped to +20 hospitalizations too. I'll wait until Tuesday before determining if this is slowing down, or if people are staying home for the weekend instead of going into the hospital.
 
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Not as bad , but worst than July !
Capturebade.PNG
 
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Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:

Screenshot from 2020-11-15 16-58-01.png Screenshot from 2020-11-16 00-26-36.png Screenshot from 2020-11-17 00-24-35.png Screenshot from 2020-11-18 23-45-40.png Screenshot from 2020-11-19 00-25-28.png Screenshot from 2020-11-20 16-03-34.png Screenshot from 2020-11-21 17-37-48.png Screenshot from 2020-11-22 16-37-48.png

The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 83942 active cases --- 4912 less --- 701.7 fewer per day
- 172919 recovered --- 47853 more --- 6836.1 more per day
- 3897 fatalities --- 516 more --- 73.7 more per day
- 260758 confirmed infected --- 43457 more --- 6208.1 more per day

- 4067735 tests taken --- 214234 more --- 42846.8 more per day but was last updated November 16th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 81667 under watch --- 12937 less --- 1848.1 fewer per day
- 3151 hospitalized --- 222 more --- 31.7 more per day
- 491 in ICU --- 76 more --- 10.9 more per day

The difference in the map is because we're now separating by counties and, depending by the accumulated 14 day daily new cases average, with those that have the darkest color having the strictest restrictions, including curfews (see below pic). Currently, there are 191 counties with 240+ new daily cases over a 14 day period, which represent roughly 8.4M of our total 10.2M people, and there's currently a curfew from 13H00 to 5H00 both Saturday and Sunday in these counties. They will create @ lest a new "tier" with curfew during week days, supposedly for counties with over 480 new daily cases: not yet certain of the details.

Screenshot from 2020-11-22 17-23-14.png


There was a "change" in the way they analyze the data from the various regions and this affected active, recovered, new daily case and under watch numbers, as shown in the following pic, from Nov 16's situation report:

Screenshot from 2020-11-22 16-52-43.png


However, the difference wasn't reported in the "+XXXX" section in each field. For example, though the actual difference between Nov 15 and 16 in new daily cases was 8371, they only reported "+3996", as shown above.

Both active cases and under watch have fewer per day numbers BECAUSE of the data analysis method change and NOT because they actually dropped unfortunately, and the number of recovered is much higher for the same reason. However, our average daily death toll had it's highest increase ever, with over 500 fatalities in a single week, followed by another substantial increase in ICU number. Still bad but less so is the number of hospitalized, that increased a bit more than half VS last week.

According to our Government projections, we're expected to see 7K new daily cases as well as 100 daily fatalities before the numbers start to fall :(
 
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1606229528582.png


There's reason to be optimistic in the USA: it seems like the cases/day have reached an inflection point sometime in the past week, and may be slowing down. We're still averaging +170-thousand cases/day however.

Source: Washington Post (which seems to be tied to the Johns Hopkins numbers: just a 7-day rolling average applied on top of Johns Hopkins)
 
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Benchmark Scores Faster than yours... I'd bet on it. :)
There's reason to be optimistic in the USA: it seems like the cases/day have reached an inflection point sometime in the past week, and may be slowing down. We're still averaging +170-thousand cases/day however.

Source: Washington Post (which seems to be tied to the Johns Hopkins numbers: just a 7-day rolling average applied on top of Johns Hopkins)
That image and the words don't match? Wait until the week's data comes in. It will flatten when 2/3 of the days are weekend/lower versus the other 4/5 days are much higher.
 
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That image and the words don't match? Wait until the week's data comes in. It will flatten when 2/3 of the days are weekend/lower versus the other 4/5 days are much higher.
1606235849139.png


You're right that the weekend is lowering the numbers. I already accounted for that. The inflection point is pretty obvious however. First, draw the slope (the 1st derivative). Then: notice that the slope before the inflection point is growing (getting worse), while the slope after the inflection point is shrinking (getting better).


All peaks have an inflection point immediately before them... but not all inflection points have a peak afterwards (if things inflect upwards again, then things may get worse). Nonetheless, I still see the inflection point as an optimistic sign.
 
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I hope so; the US recorded a daily record of airport travelers since the pandemic began, and AAA estimates about 50M will travel for thanksgiving this holiday (~1/7 Americans).

I couldn’t find a graph, but here’s some data, which isn’t helping me feel optimistic. Let’s see what happens Wednesday (the day before thanksgiving in the US) and check-in in two weeks.


 
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You should all be optimistic. Jan 20th is right around the corner by about 57 days.. If the plan hasn't been forgotten due to Alzheimer's, this will all be wrapped up in no time.
 
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