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Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

the54thvoid

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Again, the same point being brought up....

Of course the virus was in Wuhan before it was reported. I've already mentioned the logical necessity that the virus had to have been causing illness for a problem to be noticed. And those first cases could go back years. China's secrecy is obvious. They dropped the ball on a new virus and let it slip through their fingers. Big, awesome, infallible China (sarcasm there, btw) made a huge mistake and couldn't stop it spreading. Their attempts to muddy the water are to suppress the extent to which it was already in the community killing people. But once the news was out, they went batshit (ha ha) authoritarian crazy.

Now, for some reflective reading, here's a piece from 2015, so it's not a Covid-19 response article.


Yup, American bio-labs have been leaking biohazards for years. And there's scant oversight over these places.

Here's a quote:

At the high-containment labs identified by USA TODAY, experiments are underway involving drug-resistant tuberculosis, exotic strains of flu, the SARS and MERS viruses, plague, anthrax, botulism, ricin and the Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fever viruses, according to interviews and more than 20,000 pages of internal lab safety records and incident reports obtained from labs across the country.

There's an awful lot of pot-kettle-black stuff going on.
 
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Again, the same point being brought up....

Of course the virus was in Wuhan before it was reported. I've already mentioned the logical necessity that the virus had to have been causing illness for a problem to be noticed. And those first cases could go back years. China's secrecy is obvious. They dropped the ball on a new virus and let it slip through their fingers. Big, awesome, infallible China (sarcasm there, btw) made a huge mistake and couldn't stop it spreading. Their attempts to muddy the water are to suppress the extent to which it was already in the community killing people. But once the news was out, they went batshit (ha ha) authoritarian crazy.

Now, for some reflective reading, here's a piece from 2015, so it's not a Covid-19 response article.


Yup, American bio-labs have been leaking biohazards for years. And there's scant oversight over these places.

Here's a quote:



There's an awful lot of pot-kettle-black stuff going on.

perhaps its time a new politician steps up to the plate in 2024, running on the platform of shutting all these labs down worldwide, since apparently the ones running it simply can't be trusted anymore.
 
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29 local cases today and three imported, as Taiwan continues to split hair between "imported" and local cases.
Also four deaths, the lowest number in a while. There has been lower case counts, but then again, it doesn't mean much as not that much testing is being done.

In related news.
 
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We're having a rather high number of new daily cases ranging from 3K to 4K per day, but fatalities are still in single digits ... barely: while hospitalized is considered a high number, it's actually quite manageable and the same can be said about ICU.

Our risk matrix has the R number @ 1.13, but it's down from last week's 1.19:

Screenshot from 2021-07-16 20-02-26.png

355.5 cases per 100K inhabitants, but 366.7 without factoring in Azores and Madeira archipelagos.

On a more personal note, i got my vaccine's 2nd dose today: YAY.
 
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We're having a rather high number of new daily cases ranging from 3K to 4K per day, but fatalities are still in single digits ... barely: while hospitalized is considered a high number, it's actually quite manageable and the same can be said about ICU.

Our risk matrix has the R number @ 1.13, but it's down from last week's 1.19:

View attachment 208363

355.5 cases per 100K inhabitants, but 366.7 without factoring in Azores and Madeira archipelagos.

On a more personal note, i got my vaccine's 2nd dose today: YAY.

I couldn't find transportation, so my second shot is delayed until Monday. Congrats mate! I am looking forward to mine.
 
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I couldn't find transportation, so my second shot is delayed until Monday. Congrats mate! I am looking forward to mine.

Thanks.

I must say: Portugal is doing a FANTASTIC JOB with it's vaccination efforts.

Though it hasn't always been "smooth sailing" and there have been hectic situations outside vaccination centers here and there, as a whole, Portugal is vaccinating it's people @ a VERY FAST pace, having surpassed 60% with 1st dose only, and 40% with fully vaccinated.
 
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What is concerning is these counties in my state that have full vax rates 65yr+ @ 85% & 12yr+ @ 76%. That are experiencing surges. Some thinking of going back to stricter mandates soon.
As of July 7, a total of 10,430 post-vaccination cases identified.
 
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What is concerning is these counties in my state that have full vax rates 65yr+ @ 85% & 12yr+ @ 76%. That are experiencing surges. Some thinking of going back to stricter mandates soon.

yeah but I thought only like 0.5% of those fully vaccinated are actually going to hospital?
 
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Again, the same point being brought up....

Of course the virus was in Wuhan before it was reported. I've already mentioned the logical necessity that the virus had to have been causing illness for a problem to be noticed. And those first cases could go back years. China's secrecy is obvious. They dropped the ball on a new virus and let it slip through their fingers. Big, awesome, infallible China (sarcasm there, btw) made a huge mistake and couldn't stop it spreading. Their attempts to muddy the water are to suppress the extent to which it was already in the community killing people. But once the news was out, they went batshit (ha ha) authoritarian crazy.

Now, for some reflective reading, here's a piece from 2015, so it's not a Covid-19 response article.


Yup, American bio-labs have been leaking biohazards for years. And there's scant oversight over these places.

Here's a quote:



There's an awful lot of pot-kettle-black stuff going on.
Yeah, and I'm less inclined to believe this was some man-made virus created for bio-weapons experimentation. China screwed up, that much is certain, but trying to hold them accountable for something that can happen in any other country and making it a political issue is just silly and helps nobody.
I'll never understand some of the things that occurred with China following the conclusion of WW-II. It is unfortunate that they became entangled with & caught between communism & capitalism.
 
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covid is fairly simple imo, get both your jabs of mRNA, all the other vaccines need to go, and move on with life. everyone I know has done that, and everything seems to be going great for them.
 

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Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.

Screenshot from 2021-07-11 18-48-53.pngScreenshot from 2021-07-12 18-50-00.pngScreenshot from 2021-07-13 16-43-50.pngScreenshot from 2021-07-14 17-54-15.pngScreenshot from 2021-07-15 16-56-22.pngScreenshot from 2021-07-16 17-15-22.pngScreenshot from 2021-07-17 18-00-10.pngScreenshot from 2021-07-18 16-55-51.png

The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 51771 active cases --- 6469 more --- 924 more per day
- 861707 recovered --- 16191 more --- 2313 more per day
- 17207 fatalities --- 51 more --- 7 more per day
- 930685 confirmed infected --- 22711 more --- 3244 more per day

- 14366687 tests taken --- 511899 more --- 63987 more per day but was last updated July 16th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 10425466 vaccinated --- 799772 more --- last updated last today but that corresponds to 6252238 1st doses + 4173228 2nd doses
- 805 hospitalized --- 133 more --- 19 more per day
- 176 in ICU --- 23 more --- 3 more per day

Week fatalities increased VS last week: the week average has dropped below 10 for the 16th consecutive week but it's getting ever closer to double digits. The R number decreased to 1.12 on average. Roughly 62% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 41% are fully vaccinated.
 

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The new cases keep going up in my county. I expect a city-wide shut down if this keeps up.
 

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The new cases keep going up in my county. I expect a city-wide shut down if this keeps up.

How far along is your county's vaccinations effort?
 

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How far along is your county's vaccinations effort?

Unfortunately there are only 50% fully vaccinated.
 
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Unfortunately there are only 50% fully vaccinated.

Better than what we currently have in Portugal. Here, those most vulnerable have almost all been fully vaccinated by now and that is of great help in keeping the hospitalized / ICU numbers in check yet, despite this, they are still increasing slightly.
 
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Clearly this Delta-variant is becoming a bigger and bigger problem.

A few weeks ago, maybe 3 states had an issue. Last week, maybe 5-states had an issue. I'm now seeing exponential-like rises in case# across maybe the top 10-states now (Florida through Utah, plus Virgin Islands which isn't a state). None of these numbers compare with last year's surge yet, but the trend is worrying. Things are clearly on a dangerous trend if this pattern continues: we know it takes over a month before vaccination fully kicks in, and it takes a month before lockdowns seem to have an effect on a trend.

Staying on top of a trend before things get bad is the #1 tool we have. We've seen these rises before: its hard to stop the trend once it gets momentum.

Data is from the Washington Post. I've taken a screenshot of the entire chart they have: you can see that across the country, virtually all COVID19 numbers are up. But the ones that are up the most are the states with worse vaccination numbers.

www.washingtonpost.com_graphics_2020_national_coronavirus-us-cases-deaths_ (1).png
 
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1626812732664.png


Hmmmmm... I don't know if I fully agree with what Washington Post is publishing here. But its an interesting analysis perspective. Its not really that sophisticated: they just took the case-rate of Missouri, removed 85% of the vaccinated population from the statistics and then calculated the remainder as the "risk to the unvaccinated population".

Vaccines are over 90% effective (even vs Delta variant), but that remaining 10% still needs to be factored in somehow. Wash-Po assumes 85% effectiveness arbitrarily ("Steelman" argument: assume a weaker vaccine so that the graph above is in favor of their debate opponent).

Any thoughts on this argument / graph that Wash-Po is pushing? Or does anyone know where a more rigorous study is being done? All in all, I don't expect reporters to be statistics experts, so I'd rather see this sort of analysis from some kind of public health university (ex: Johns Hopkins) rather than sourced from reporters.


Methodology​

The Post adjusted coronavirus rates for cases, deaths and hospitalization over time by combining CDC data on cases, hospitalizations and vaccinations. The Post used a rolling seven-day average of daily cases, deaths and hospitalization. For vaccinations, The Post used the number of people who had received at least one shot as of each date.

For events like coronavirus infection, rates are usually calculated by dividing the number of cases by the number of people in the population. For example, if there are 12 cases among a population of 100 people, the rate would be 12 people per 100. The Post reduced the denominator to exclude most vaccinated people. So if 20 people got vaccinated, that would mean there were 12 cases out of the remaining 80 unvaccinated people, for an adjusted rate of 15 cases per 100 people.

Vaccination is not perfect in preventing infections, however, so The Post did not subtract the entire population of vaccinated people. Data shows the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are about 90 percent effective in preventing cases among people who have received the shot. Cases among vaccinated people are called breakthrough cases. To be conservative, The Post estimated that up to 15 percent of the vaccinated population could still be infected.

So, in the example above, instead of removing all 20 vaccinated people, The Post removed 17. That would leave 12 cases among 83 people, for an adjusted rate of 14.5 cases per 100 people.

Using data released by the CDC’s Walensky, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases director Anthony S. Fauci and several states concerning effectiveness of vaccines for preventing hospitalization and death, The Post subtracted 90 percent of the vaccinated population from the denominator for hospitalization and 98 percent of the vaccinated population from the denominator for death rates.

The Post calculated the adjusted rates of cases, deaths and hospitalization for the nation and each state since the start of vaccination in December. Coronavirus case and death rates released by states are sometimes subject to time lags. State also sometimes review older cases and issue updated figures that reflect a backlog of old cases rather than a surge on that day.

This methodology is clearly very simple. But... I'm no statistician, and certainly no health policy expert. I immediately recognize how to do it, but I guess I'm just wondering if there's any blind-spots / corner cases where this sort of thing can potentially lead to misleading statistics.

But if this methodology holds true, then the unvaccinated portion of the USA is facing a crisis today as dangerous as the January / February surge this year... at least for some states.

EDIT: I probably should post the "USA Average" graph.

1626814235072.png


So on the average, the USA (even the unvaccinated portion) is doing okay. The issue is that Florida, Missouri, and some other states have a fresh "July wave" of COVID19 coming upon them. It remains a localized phenomenon... but they're still part of the country and worth discussion.
 
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Article Dutch newspaper "de Volkskrant"

There are growing concerns in different countries about the delta variant (Israel , India and now the Netherlands)

Virologist are finding people that have been previously infected by Covid-19 and have recovered , and subsequently have been fully vaccinated , who are still getting infected with the new delta variant.
People are getting sick and possibly even transmitting the delta variant, because these people are thinking they just have a common cold.

So, people thinking that they are safe because they had their two shots , and go out to party like there is no tomorrow, this scenario now becomes a real danger for people not yet vaccinated.
Virologist are urging to keep existing measures in place, and to keep testing everybody for Covid, even fully vaccinated people.
 
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Article Dutch newspaper "de Volkskrant"

There are growing concerns in different countries about the delta variant (Israel , India and now the Netherlands)

Virologist are finding people that have been previously infected by Covid-19 and have recovered , and subsequently have been fully vaccinated , who are still getting infected with the new delta variant.
People are getting sick and possibly even transmitting the delta variant, because these people are thinking they just have a common cold.

So, people thinking that they are safe because they had their two shots , and go out to party like there is no tomorrow, this scenario now becomes a real danger for people not yet vaccinated.
Virologist are urging to keep existing measures in place, and to keep testing everybody for Covid, even fully vaccinated people.

Covid is here to stay and will mutate forever imo. It's only a matter of time before it makes the 1919 Flu pandemic look like child's play. I give it two years before this happens though. it will take time. but humans have already proven they are incapable of being smart.

all plane travel should have been shut down last year for a solid 3-4 months. instead, everyone half assed it. it's never going to end now. only way it ends now, is if it mutates so bad it literally brutally destroys everything in its path and you get 50+ million dead. that's what it will take for the airlines to shut down for x amount of months. sad, but that's just how humans work.

we are capable of so much, yet at end of day... so little.
 
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In Belgium we had the story of people on holiday in Spain, testing positive for Covid, breaking off the holiday and returning home on a flight just as if it is the normal thing to do.
 
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In Belgium we had the story of people on holiday in Spain, testing positive for Covid, breaking off the holiday and returning home on a flight just as if it is the normal thing to do.

sadly there are a lot of terrible stories like this. I just read this one today:


covid positive, disguised himself as his wife, so he could fly.... yeah... it's never going to end folks.... its just depressing at this point.


for those wondering, we did in fact spend 5.7 trillion dollars on Covid in USA. lol

 
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