Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[Tatty_Two]

Apparently when this new variant was found in the UK a short while back one of the virologists in the Governments advisory team mentioned that it was the 46th new variant found so far, we do not usually hear about them unless there is a significant change, obviously that one was.

 

[HTC]

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 106778 active cases --- 29177 more --- 4168.1 more per day
- 369108 recovered --- 26573 more --- 3796.1 more per day
- 7803 fatalities --- 685 more --- 97.9 more per day
- 483689 confirmed infected --- 56435 more --- 8062.1 more per day

- 5956540 tests taken --- 317791 more --- 39801 more per day but was last updated January 7th and it includes antigen tests as well
- under watch --- no longer appears: replaced with vaccinated as of January 8th --- 70000 --- last updated January 8th
- 3770 hospitalized --- 726 more --- 103.7 more per day
- 558 in ICU --- 58 more --- 8.3 more per day

TREMENDOUS increases across the board in ONE WEEK VS overall: active cases increased by over 27%, recovered increased by almost 7.2%, fatalities increased by almost 8.8%, new cases increased by almost 11.7%, hospitalized increased by over 19% and ICU increased by almost 10.4%: the cost of relaxing both Christmas' day and New Year's day is there for all to see ...

Portugal is considering having a lockdown similar to the one we had in March / April, with the exception of schools, which will remain open, starting next Thursday: while students are most definitely the least affected by this virus, they also can spread the virus just as easily as anyone else, which is why i'm strongly opposed to this, personally.

 

[Tatty_Two]

The main thing that determined the huge success of last Springs 10 week lockdown and last Autumn's (Nov 20) 4 week lockdown, apart from the obvious timeframe was the fact that last spring schools were closed and after 4 weeks numbers were coming down significantly and in November schools were open, November showed after 3 weeks a slowing of infection rates but that was all then we opened up again one week later albeit with fairly strict restrictions, within 2 weeks we were worse than we were before going into that lockdown, the one we are currently in for at least 6 weeks has schools, colleges and universities closed.

 

[HTC]

The main thing that determined the huge success of last Springs 10 week lockdown and last Autumn's (Nov 20) 4 week lockdown, apart from the obvious timeframe was the fact that last spring schools were closed and after 4 weeks numbers were coming down significantly and in November schools were open, November showed after 3 weeks a slowing of infection rates but that was all then we opened up again one week later albeit with fairly strict restrictions, within 2 weeks we were worse than we were before going into that lockdown, the one we are currently in for at least 6 weeks has schools, colleges and universities closed.

The problem with open schools during a lockdown is NOT during classes: it's BETWEEN classes as well as entering / leaving schools because those are the times more people are closer together.

 

[Tatty_Two]

The problem with open schools during a lockdown is NOT during classes: it's BETWEEN classes as well as entering / leaving schools because those are the times more people are closer together.

As well as the fact that all the teachers go home to their families, shop at supermarkets maybe take public transport to get to work in the urban areas where there are much more people, the potential for wider spread with an already hugely contagious new variant is very risky.

 

[dragontamer5788]

+12000 vaccinations / day, on ~3000 cases/day.

My sister (medical doctor) has received the 2nd dose. Apparently she's one of the 30%+ cases who got symptoms: "chills to the bone" and so forth. It seems like your body reacts strongly to the 2nd dose... at least by anecdotal evidence. I forgot to ask if it was Pfizer or Moderna.... but since both are mRNA vaccines, they probably have similar effects.

 

[Tatty_Two]

My wife had her 1st yesterday, woke up this morning with a sore arm, by afternoon it had gone, hers was Pfizer as was my Mother in Laws last month.

 

[dragontamer5788]

My wife had her 1st yesterday, woke up this morning with a sore arm, by afternoon it had gone, hers was Pfizer as was my Mother in Laws last month.

My sister didn't even get a sore arm from the 1st dose. So these symptoms from the 2nd dose were a surprise.

Hopefully your family will do good on the 2nd dose. Even then, the symptoms went away within a day. But it could be a good idea to take it easy for the day they get the vaccine. Maybe plan a nap or something, just in case.

 

[claes]

The second dose is supposed to have stronger side effects than the first IIRC

 

[Space Lynx]

The second dose is supposed to have stronger side effects than the first IIRC

I just hope we get lucky and the immunity lasts a lifetime. I believe I read somewhere 100% of all SARS people infected in 2004 (I think it was) which is similar to this virus, still have immunity t-cells after 16 years or something like that.

However, since covid has already re-infected people twice, both times producing symptoms, I am worried the viruses are not enough alike sadly. I really hope though, it would be so nice to put this mess behind us as a species.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Maryland numbers still kinda sucky, but less sucky than last time.

More importantly: the Governor has mentioned that we're receiving 10,000 doses/day, but we're averaging 16000+ injections/day (at least, on the weekdays. It probably slows down over the weekend: I'll double check the numbers tomorrow and through this holiday weekend). There are 6-million people in my state, and 1.5-million of them are priority targets for vaccination (Frontline workers for 1A, Teachers/Inmates/Age 75+ for 1B, and Age 65+, Grocery store workers, Post Office for 1C).

10,000 doses/day means only an average of 5000 people/day to be vaccinated (if we include the 2nd dose needed). The 1.5 million priority target will take ~5 years of vaccinations at this rate.

Clearly, 10,000 doses/day is not enough. We need more vaccine production. For the near future, it will take a very long time to even vaccinate the prioritized population.

I think I've mentioned before: anti-vax attitude is kind of useful right now, since it means that fewer people will want to get vaccinated. Yeah, its short-term thinking on my part, but we've got very, very few vaccines. They're a very limited resource. So if people don't want the vaccine, fine, we'll give first to those who want it.

 

[dragontamer5788]

New tweet today...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1350461557168246784

Maryland providers have now administered 245,266 doses of #COVID19 vaccines, including a new record of 24,549 doses in the past 24 hours. This is approximately 2.5 times our average daily federal allocation. Supply is still very limited, and we continue to urge patience.

In the past day, Maryland has gone from ~16,000 injections to ~25,000 injections. However, the doses we're receiving have not really increased.

 

[dragontamer5788]

I haven't posted MD statistics yet. But I wanted another few days to solidify whether or not we're on the decline (1st derivative).

Its super noisy on the #Cases/day, I don't know if I can make a conclusion from that graph. But %Positive is down from ~9% to ~8%.

7-day moving average has begun to decline, as well as #Hospital Beds. But very slightly, I could easily be overinterpreting the movements here, or it could be noise.

As expected, the weekend shows a dramatic slowdown in Vaccine distribution. I guess most of the nurses work Monday-Friday, like the rest of us. With this weekend being a Holiday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday are largely going to be "lost".

With that being said: that's still 7500/day (on Saturday) vaccination jabs, which is a substantial portion of the 10,000/day estimate we receive. Maryland's rollout has been slower than some other states, but we're still arguably going "too fast", since we're going to run out of doses even at this slightly slower rate compared to everyone else in the country. It seems like Maryland is concerned about effectively deploying the 2-dose regimen, while other states are willing to risk 1-dose on large sections of their population.

 

[HTC]

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 134011 active cases --- 27233 more --- 3890.4 more per day
- 406929 recovered --- 37821 more --- 5403 more per day
- 8861 fatalities --- 1058 more --- 151.1 more per day
- 549801 confirmed infected --- 66112 more --- 9444.6 more per day

- 6247758 tests taken --- 290828 more --- 48469.7 more per day but was last updated January 13th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 106000 vaccinated --- 36000 more --- last updated January 15th
- 4889 hospitalized --- 1119 more --- 159.9 more per day
- 647 in ICU --- 89 more --- 12.7 more per day

TREMENDOUS increases across the board in ONE WEEK, specially fatalities, hospitalized and new daily cases.

This week, Portugal is leading WORLDWIDE in new daily cases and is 4th in fatalities per million people and, because early presidential voting started today, i'm not sure if it will aggravate further before starting to improve. Judging by the hospitalized sharp increase, it will continue to get worse for a while longer and that's BEFORE the early voting "shows it's effects".

 

[HTC]

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 169230 active cases --- 35219 more --- 5031.3 more per day
- 456491 recovered --- 49562 more --- 7080.3 more per day
- 10469 fatalities --- 1608 more --- 229.7 more per day
- 636190 confirmed infected --- 86389 more --- 12341.3 more per day

- 6722120 tests taken --- 474362 more --- 59295.3 more per day but was last updated January 21st and it includes antigen tests as well
- 249891 vaccinated --- 143891 more --- last updated today
- 6117 hospitalized --- 1228 more --- 175.4 more per day
- 742 in ICU --- 95 more --- 13.6 more per day

TREMENDOUS increases across the board in ONE WEEK, specially fatalities, hospitalized and new daily cases: even more pronounced than previous week.

In two weeks, we went from (pics from the previous two weeks' numbers):

- an average of 97.9 dead per day, to 151.1 dead per day, to the current 229.7 dead per day: an increase of 234.6%
- an average of 8062 new cases per day, to 9444.6 new cases per day, to the current 12341.3 new cases per day: an increase of 152.6%
- an average of 103.7 new hospitalized per day to 159.9 new hospitalized per day, to the current 175.4 new hospitalized per day: an increase of 169.1%

The biggest increase was fatalities and i believe this is due to the hospitals being too crowded with not enough human resources: something that will increase further because new cases continue to increase too. Our Government is resisting the idea of making a "civil requisition" of doctors / nurses from private hospitals to help the public NHS but it's only a matter of time, IMO.

Today was voting day to elect a new President: though supposedly people were to be social distancing while waiting for their turn to vote, we'll see how that turned out in the next two weeks.

Portugal is on the edge of catastrophe

 

[Tatty_Two]

Well, I think our 3rd peak has just about levelled off, positive cases have come down over the last 2 weeks from 60 - 70,000 per day to 30 - 40,000, deaths appear finally to be levelling off and reduce a little as do hospitalisations but that's only a slight downwards trend, all of this off the back of the new variant now being responsible for 80 - 90% of all new infections, this is after 2.5 weeks of lockdown, we are far from out of the woods yet but I will take anything after 4 weeks of sky rocket figures, vaccinations is a mini success story, the fatalities figure below is likely to be low as it's a Sunday so I might get another shock tomorrow...………...

 

[dragontamer5788]

While the faster spreading UK variant is in USA (and probably Maryland), things are looking fine for now. %Positive has dropped from 9%+ to just under 7%, and what was 3000+/day infections has changed to ~2000/day, and today dropped to 1600 (hopefully that sticks below 2k/day). Hospitalizations have steadily declined over the past two weeks from 1800+ to 1669 today.

The winter holidays really escalated the COVID19 spread dramatically, and it will take weeks to shake that off.

While the state is technically in phase 1C, no county-level municipality has gone beyond phase 1B. In fact, the area where my parents live still seems to be in phase 1A. As such, the "phase 1C" simply allows local counties to progress to 1C, but in practice, local counties are holding us back at an earlier level.

Why? Because we haven't vaccinated all of our nurses / doctors yet (aka: Phase 1A), or teachers (Phase 1B). So 1C is not representative of reality, unfortunately.

With that being said: it looks like this week, there will be more vaccines distributed (1st dose) than people who ever got COVID19 in the state. A nice "crossover point" so to speak. Mostly symbolic, but it does mean that the vaccine will be helping more than natural immunity by the end of this week. (For whatever that's worth).

 

[harm9963]

Billionaire club in bid to curb overpopulation

SOME of America's leading billionaires have met secretly to consider how their wealth could be used to slow the growth of the world's population and speed up improvements in health and education.

www.thetimes.co.uk

 

[the54thvoid]

Billionaire club in bid to curb overpopulation

SOME of America's leading billionaires have met secretly to consider how their wealth could be used to slow the growth of the world's population and speed up improvements in health and education.

www.thetimes.co.uk

That meeting was in 2009. News necro.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Officially dropping below 6% positive today. Hospitalizations are coming down steadily: but not dramatically yet. Deaths are still 35+/day (seemingly unaffected by these declines in stats). Just showing once again: hospitalizations / deaths lag from #Cases and %Positive stats. In the coming weeks, I expect our hospitalization stats to begin to drop dramatically quicker (in line with the %Positive and #Cases numbers). Deaths will probably begin to decline by the 2nd week of February.

The vaccination GUI keeps changing.

Importantly: 32,000 doses received yesterday (!!!). Vaccine distribution cast a much larger net this past week: with not only hospitals / clinics getting vaccines, but also some local grocery stores and pharmacies. I was wondering when we'd see the spike thanks to the wider distribution.

Unfortunately, we only still 10,000 doses/day received, so we're gonna run out once again. We slow down on the weekends though. My father/mother are in the 65+ group, and 1C is beginning to be accepted in various hospitals. But it has been extremely difficult to find the vaccine anywhere in my experience. I'll give it more F5 throughout the weeks. It might be easier to get a GPU than to get a vaccine, lol.

 

[HTC]

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 181623 active cases --- 12393 more --- 1770 more per day
- 526411 recovered --- 69920 more --- 9989 more per day
- 12482 fatalities --- 2013 more --- 288 more per day
- 720516 confirmed infected --- 84326 more --- 12047 more per day

- 7170615 tests taken --- 448495 more --- 64071 more per day but was last updated January 28th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 336771 vaccinated --- 86880 more --- last updated today but it includes 1st AND 2nd doses
- 6694 hospitalized --- 577 more --- 82 more per day
- 858 in ICU --- 116 more --- 17 more per day

It seems we're beginning to stabilize, judging by hospitalized current curve but, as expected, this doesn't yet translate in daily fatalities which rose significantly this past week, yet again..

Let's hope our Presidential elections didn't ruin it AGAIN, which we should know by the end of next week.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Its the first time #Daily Cases is less than 1000 in multiple months.

Hospitalizations "bounced" by +30 today. Deaths are still 30+ / day (lagging indicator). %Positive is below 6%. It is said that 5% positive is the recommended level when #Cases is somewhat accurate (oooohhh boy, its been a while since we could rely upon #Cases...)

Vaccinations were slow yesterday due to the big snowstorm.

I'm not too concerned about slow vaccinations due to inclement weather (there are several news stories about delayed COVID19 vaccination appointments due to the weather). Even with weather issues, we got nearly 10,000 jabs anyway, so not bad. We have ~6 Million people in our state, which means our population is roughly 7.7% 1st-dose vaccinated.

That's a large enough set that the vaccinations are probably beginning to reduce the spread of COVID19 (I don't even know how to test that idea though). Since COVID19 vaccinations are prioritized for the highest risk population (ie: stay-at-home workers are low-priority, while Grocery store workers, Inmates are high-priority). Schools remain closed, but Teachers are high-priority for vaccination.

My parents still haven't been able to find a shot... I've been F5ing around, but probably just checking at the wrong times or something. Maybe I should wakeup earlier and give it a try.

The governor is pushing schools to open by March: the Teacher's unions are refusing in a number of locations. But its probably getting close to the point where schools can reopen safely: as long as Teachers are well vaccinated and students keep masks on (the vaccines are NOT approved below age 16 in the USA, which means that we cannot vaccinate our schoolkids yet). That leaves school as a potential viral vector, but after months without school, the community is clearly reaching a breaking point.

 

[harm9963]

Oh boy

 

[Tatty_Two]

We got the variants here, so far nothing "too much" to be concerned about, apart from a couple are more infectious, the UK variant (which has now also a new hybrid variant based on it) has been under the microscope since it was first detected back in September and the South African variant which has been studied since November appear to still get a positive response from the existing Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccine's, albeit with a little less efficacy. AstraZeneca as part of their phase 3 human trials have been working in South Africa and used their vaccine to trial on thousands of patients there so we should get a clearer picture soon, I think the Brazilian strain has the most ??? against it currently. The link below talks about the Pfizer vaccine also ...............

Oxford AstraZeneca Vaccine Equally Effective Against Covid Variant - Bloomberg

 

[Space Lynx]

This thread makes me wish I could find a remote job, buy a camper van, and get Starlink internet.