Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[the54thvoid]

^^ I mean mask 'cynics' seem to be forget that they're used in medical surgery for the same reasons. They reduce the range of expired contaminents.

 

[Space Lynx]

^^ I mean mask 'cynics' seem to be forget that they're used in medical surgery for the same reasons. They reduce the range of expired contaminents.

I think the problem is that most people just get sniffles with covid, and they don't care about other people. That's humans for ya. Has nothing to do with the science of any of it.

You can play fear games all you want (I myself am very scared of covid cause it kicked my ass), but vast vast majority of people that get covid don't even get sniffles. So people simply don't care.

 

[Vayra86]

you said I should let go of my plan ASAP? I assume you meant to go to England?

Not at all, the complete opposite, just like the idea that I would be against vaccination, but my entire post kinda revolves around me saying vaccination is really the only solution here. Not all the other band-aids, most of which are born out of a panic response trying to prevent as much spread as we possibly could. Note that this has been the noise I"ve made since this whole thing started, too.

Once we're moving to a less contagious situation, its a good idea to step away from all those protective aids as well. You're exactly right, its good to start living a normal life again - and the norm is not trying to ban every possible risk. Maybe you always did and thats how you do things, then I guess double masking and all those other, overly extreme measures are indeed the norm for you, then by all means. But normality is also the acceptance of a minor risk, and its good to flip that switch in your mind sooner rather than later.

That is what I meant to say wrt scientific and statistical data too. The comparison with hospitals that was also made up here is another example of it. You're NOT traversing high risk areas, not even when you move through airports. A hospital on the covid wing - thát is a high risk area where the recommendations stand and are initially aimed at. The underlying question is, when is the percentage small enough for you to stop comparing your personal movement with moving around in high risk hospital wings.

My post was, since you're making that trip and were so adamant about all the measures you'd take, a reality check. A perspective. I'm 200% for living the life we should.

I think the problem is that most people just get sniffles with covid, and they don't care about other people. That's humans for ya. Has nothing to do with the science of any of it.

You can play fear games all you want (I myself am very scared of covid cause it kicked my ass), but vast vast majority of people that get covid don't even get sniffles. So people simply don't care.

No, I know in fact that I'm quite a responsible guy when it comes to spreading disease. I work from home since March 2020 and keep social distancing rules intact where others might cuddle up because its the path of least resistance in a group.

But there are limits and it is a good idea to guard those for your own (mental) health. And in a general sense, I know humans are very bad at risk assessment and generally pick the safe side. I understand the urge, I even feel it myself, and at the same time, I know its not healthy and risk is part of life, and a great teacher. With a virus, threat assessment is a whole box of problems and we're very likely to be overly cautious - even in the face of inevitability.

 

[Space Lynx]

Not at all, the complete opposite, just like the idea that I would be against vaccination, but my entire post kinda revolves around me saying vaccination is really the only solution here. Not all the other band-aids, most of which are born out of a panic response trying to prevent as much spread as we possibly could. Note that this has been the noise I"ve made since this whole thing started, too.

Once we're moving to a less contagious situation, its a good idea to step away from all those protective aids as well. You're exactly right, its good to start living a normal life again - and the norm is not trying to ban every possible risk. Maybe you always did and thats how you do things, then I guess double masking and all those other, overly extreme measures are indeed the norm for you, then by all means. But normality is also the acceptance of a minor risk, and its good to flip that switch in your mind sooner rather than later.

That is what I meant to say wrt scientific and statistical data too. The comparison with hospitals that was also made up here is another example of it. You're NOT traversing high risk areas, not even when you move through airports. A hospital on the covid wing - thát is a high risk area where the recommendations stand and are initially aimed at. The underlying question is, when is the percentage small enough for you to stop comparing your personal movement with moving around in high risk hospital wings.

My post was, since you're making that trip and were so adamant about all the measures you'd take, a reality check. A perspective.


No, I know in fact that I'm quite a responsible guy when it comes to spreading disease. I work from home since March 2020 and keep social distancing rules intact where others might cuddle up because its the path of least resistance in a group.

But there are limits and it is a good idea to guard those for your own (mental) health. And in a general sense, I know humans are very bad at risk assessment and generally pick the safe side. I understand the urge, I even feel it myself, and at the same time, I know its not healthy and risk is part of life, and a great teacher. With a virus, threat assessment is a whole box of problems and we're very likely to be overly cautious - even in the face of inevitability.

I see, I just misread your first post then, I get what you mean now lol cheers

you are right its a bit overboard. one good mask instead of double masking for a start.

 

[Space Lynx]

Researchers show neutralizing antibodies correlate with COVID protection

Antibodies produced by vaccines and infections declined at roughly similar rates.

arstechnica.com

Antibodies produced by vaccines and infections declined at roughly similar rates, with half-lives of 58 days and 65 days, respectively. But given the strength of the response to vaccines, this result isn't a huge problem. A vaccine with 95 percent efficacy after the second dose would still have an estimated 77 percent efficacy 250 days out. And that's for protection against a symptomatic infection. The protection against severe COVID-19 is much stronger and would likely take far longer to decline.

Vaccines with a lower initial efficacy present more of a potential problem. A starting efficacy of 70 percent would be down to 33 percent efficacy at 250 days.

It seems very clear to me the other vaccines simply need to go and all world governments need to go all in with mRNA. Vaccines will mean nothing in 250 days in countries like the UK, unless you can convince the same amount of people they need a booster shot... and I honestly doubt you will be able to convince enough needed to get a booster shot every 9 months. mRNA gives the longevity needed for economies to rebound.

 

[Space Lynx]

Researchers show neutralizing antibodies correlate with COVID protection

Antibodies produced by vaccines and infections declined at roughly similar rates.

arstechnica.com

Antibodies produced by vaccines and infections declined at roughly similar rates, with half-lives of 58 days and 65 days, respectively. But given the strength of the response to vaccines, this result isn't a huge problem. A vaccine with 95 percent efficacy after the second dose would still have an estimated 77 percent efficacy 250 days out. And that's for protection against a symptomatic infection. The protection against severe COVID-19 is much stronger and would likely take far longer to decline.

Vaccines with a lower initial efficacy present more of a potential problem. A starting efficacy of 70 percent would be down to 33 percent efficacy at 250 days.

It seems very clear to me the other vaccines simply need to go and all world governments need to go all in with mRNA. Vaccines will mean nothing in 250 days in countries like the UK, unless you can convince the same amount of people they need a booster shot... and I honestly doubt you will be able to convince enough needed to get a booster shot every 9 months. mRNA gives the longevity needed for economies to rebound.

well maybe I was wrong... https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/covid-19-a-global-issue.264565/page-158

see post 3928... this is raising some red flags for me... seriously they should have been studying this stuff from the beginning how do they only now have the results...

I'd really some scientific explanation on this... any takers?

 

[Tatty_Two]

Well we already know in the UK that from around October all 50+ (they will have had their 2nd jab much earlier than the younger age ranges) will get a Pfizer Booster jab that will also be "adapted" for new variants.

 

[Space Lynx]

Dr. Anthony Fauci says he's 'not convinced' Covid-19 developed naturally | CNN

Dr. Anthony Fauci told the Poynter Institute on May 11 that he wasn't totally convinced that Covid-19 developed naturally and that he thinks that more investigation into the origin is needed. CNN's Natasha Bertrand and Kylie Atwood have more.

www.cnn.com

looks like some people should not have been so quick to make fun of those who believed in lab theory... I believe even in these forums quite a few people were making fun of the previous CDC director for saying there was possibility of lab leak... now Dr. Fauci says it is possible...

 

[TheLostSwede]

This is really going downhill here quickly.
Most deaths in a single day so far.
Do note that there isn't a whole lot of testing being done.

Taiwan reports 334 local COVID cases, 6 deaths, with 256 cases added retroactively | Taiwan News | May. 24, 2021 21:01

www.taiwannews.com.tw

 

[thesmokingman]

Dr. Anthony Fauci says he's 'not convinced' Covid-19 developed naturally | CNN

Dr. Anthony Fauci told the Poynter Institute on May 11 that he wasn't totally convinced that Covid-19 developed naturally and that he thinks that more investigation into the origin is needed. CNN's Natasha Bertrand and Kylie Atwood have more.

www.cnn.com

looks like the left wing should not have been so quick to make fun of those who believed in lab theory... I believe even in these forums quite a few people were making fun of the previous CDC director for saying there was possibility of lab leak... now Dr. Fauci says it is possible...

Coronavirus' generally come from animals. There's no proof to substantiate the lab leak claim. Is it possible, sure as anything is possible. Does that mean its true, no at least without.

 

[the54thvoid]

Dr. Anthony Fauci says he's 'not convinced' Covid-19 developed naturally | CNN

Dr. Anthony Fauci told the Poynter Institute on May 11 that he wasn't totally convinced that Covid-19 developed naturally and that he thinks that more investigation into the origin is needed. CNN's Natasha Bertrand and Kylie Atwood have more.

www.cnn.com

looks like the left wing should not have been so quick to make fun of those who believed in lab theory... I believe even in these forums quite a few people were making fun of the previous CDC director for saying there was possibility of lab leak... now Dr. Fauci says it is possible...

There's also this concept that people are so very quick to ignore. Wuhan was set up to investigate these things. The conspiracies all tend toward 'it was released'. The more plausible explanation is a lab worker caught it from the source. And they then spread it without knowing they had done so. People need to understand the animal kingdom is rife with viruses we've never been exposed to. But, as China and other places expand, we are exposed to more and more pathogens. China knows this, so they set up labs to investigate these viruses. It's entirely feasible a lab worker was exposed to the virus and spread it. But that is actually no different from someone 'catching' it in the wild.

The conspiracy and political models suggest intentional and malicious release. That's the danger of playing political assery with this. Look at it another way. A scientist studying bats gets bitten and develops rabies. It could easily have come from a lab but not in the way the media or politicians suggest.

Have a look at this:

How China’s ‘Bat Woman’ Hunted Down Viruses from SARS to the New Coronavirus

Wuhan-based virologist Shi Zhengli has identified dozens of deadly SARS-like viruses in bat caves, and she warns there are more out there

www.scientificamerican.com

 

[thesmokingman]

The irony is that the US is a world leader in laboratory biosecurity incidents or leaks.

The other thing is that no one seems to think through is why would they release a virus in their own fkn country???

 

[Space Lynx]

Coronavirus' generally come from animals. There's no proof to substantiate the lab leak claim. Is it possible, sure as anything is possible. Does that mean its true, no at least without.

That's not my point at all. My point is when Fauci says it no one makes fun anymore, but when other said it in past people made fun... groupthink is an interesting sociological phenomenon imo.

There's also this concept that people are so very quick to ignore. Wuhan was set up to investigate these things. The conspiracies all tend toward 'it was released'. The more plausible explanation is a lab worker caught it from the source. And they then spread it without knowing they had done so. People need to understand the animal kingdom is rife with viruses we've never been exposed to. But, as China and other places expand, we are exposed to more and more pathogens. China knows this, so they set up labs to investigate these viruses. It's entirely feasible a lab worker was exposed to the virus and spread it. But that is actually no different from someone 'catching' it in the wild.

The conspiracy and political models suggest intentional and malicious release. That's the danger of playing political assery with this. Look at it another way. A scientist studying bats gets bitten and develops rabies. It could easily have come from a lab but not in the way the media or politicians suggest.

even if what you say right here is true, that's exactly what the previous CDC director and Fauci are both saying, that it was an accident at the lab possibility. so it looks we all are in agreement then, and no making fun of was needed at all for the last year for those who thought the lab leak was possible.

the timeline of events all point to lab accident/exposure to me, A) there is only one coronavirus bat research lab in the world to my knowledge, put there due to history of coronavirus coming out of this region B) in recent years this lab was gathering bats from multiple places bats that had higher viral loads to study them this is verified C) 3 workers at this lab were so sick they needed hospitalized in November 2019 D) pandemic happens in the same exact region where this lab is located in December 2019...

the 3 lab workers didn't just have sniffles. they had to be hospitalized... that is pretty damning evidence imo that it was a lab leak or accident.

 

[R-T-B]

The other thing is that no one seems to think through is why would they release a virus in their own fkn country??

That, and the fact that we aren't even certain WuHan IS the origin site. There is already evidence it was present stateside a lot earlier than we thought (as far back as November), who knows where it really came from at this point?

that it was an accident at the lab possibility.

even if true, you have to be careful as people will take that news and run with it as "China was weaponizing the virus" or something else such there really is no evidence for.

 

[the54thvoid]

That's not my point at all. My point is when Fauci says it no one makes fun anymore, but when other said it in past people made fun... groupthink is an interesting sociological phenomenon imo.




even if what you say right here is true, that's exactly what the previous CDC director and Fauci are both saying, that it was an accident at the lab possibility. so it looks we all are in agreement then, and no making fun of was needed at all for the last year for those who thought the lab leak was possible.

the timeline of events all point to lab accident/exposure to me, A) there is only one coronavirus bat research lab in the world to my knowledge, put there due to history of coronavirus coming out of this region B) in recent years this lab was gathering bats from multiple places bats that had higher viral loads to study them this is verified C) 3 workers at this lab were so sick they needed hospitalized in November 2019 D) pandemic happens in the same exact region where this lab is located in December 2019...

the 3 lab workers didn't just have sniffles. they had to be hospitalized... that is pretty damning evidence imo that it was a lab leak or accident.

They catch bats. They work with the very animals that carry the virus.

The labs are there because of SARS. It's not rocket science. Also, consider that people were contracting these viruses before this all came out. The scientists were there investigating a new virus. Guess what? A new virus is invisible until it is classified and it takes a lab to classify it. Use some logic.

 

[Space Lynx]

But that is actually no different from someone 'catching' it in the wild.

The conspiracy and political models suggest intentional and malicious release. That's the danger of playing political assery with this. Look at it another way. A scientist studying bats gets bitten and develops rabies. It could easily have come from a lab but not in the way the media or politicians suggest.

it is different from someone catching it in the wild though, because some of these bats were taken out of their "zones" from far away, and may have never migrated out of those zones (I don't know about bat migratory patterns so maybe I am wrong here), but this lab was actively collecting bats even from far away to study, without that, who is to say anyone would have caught it by accident?

Where the World’s at in the Hunt for the Origins of Covid-19

Scientists have yet to determine the origins of Covid-19, years after it touched off the worst pandemic in more than a century. Some of the closest related viruses to the one that causes it, SARS-CoV-2, were found in bats roughly 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) from the central Chinese city of...

www.bloomberg.com

I am 100% in agreement with you that it come from a bat, but I think scientists should have some hubris checks from time to time. Hubris checks do occur sometimes, as when the science community called out that one scientist in China for genetically editing a baby with CRISPR.

edit: that article is interesting because it shows a sars cov 2 virus (96% similar anyway) in 2012 infecting 6 people. so I 100% agree with you. i'm just saying maybe... we shouldn't be moving animals around out of hubris we know what we are doing. perhaps instead, portable labs or blood samples should be taken in full protective gear, then the scientist travels back to the said lab. instead of the bat itself being transported outside of its natural "zone"

 

[R-T-B]

without that, who is to say anyone would have caught it by accident?

Almost certain to happen. That's precisely why these labs exist.

And again from your own article, if the closest related bats were 1000 miles from Wuhan, how do we really know Wuhan is the origin?

Answer: We don't. Your whole foundation of this argument is based on a lack of evidence.

 

[Space Lynx]

Almost certain to happen. That's precisely why these labs exist.

but again Dr. Fauci said May 11th he is not convinced the virus came from natural sources... but all of you are still convinced it was without a doubt. I'll link it again. interesting that even you all now disagree with Fauci... hmm. not sure what to make of any of it now.

Dr. Anthony Fauci says he's 'not convinced' Covid-19 developed naturally | CNN

Dr. Anthony Fauci told the Poynter Institute on May 11 that he wasn't totally convinced that Covid-19 developed naturally and that he thinks that more investigation into the origin is needed. CNN's Natasha Bertrand and Kylie Atwood have more.

www.cnn.com

 

[thesmokingman]

but again Dr. Fauci said May 11th he is not convinced the virus came from natural sources... but all of you are still convinced it was without a doubt. I'll link it again. interesting that even you all now disagree with Fauci... hmm. not sure what to make of any of it now.

Dr. Anthony Fauci says he's 'not convinced' Covid-19 developed naturally | CNN

Dr. Anthony Fauci told the Poynter Institute on May 11 that he wasn't totally convinced that Covid-19 developed naturally and that he thinks that more investigation into the origin is needed. CNN's Natasha Bertrand and Kylie Atwood have more.

www.cnn.com

You need some critical thinking skills man. Thinking something does not equal fact. And this whole shit doesn't do anyone any good. The cats already out of the bag.

 

[Hemmingstamp]

The cats already out of the bag.

You mean the Bat's already out of the bag (Couldn't help it, sorry)

 

[dragontamer5788]

I've said it before and I'll say it again.

COVID19 is a shitty weapon. Good weapons are Anthrax or Smallpox: vaccinations are readily available (although full of side-effects), which means that most people don't want to take vaccines. You can prepare for biological warfare by simply vaccinating your own soldiers before spreading the virus around. That's why bio-weapons are effective: you hurt the enemy, while secretly protecting your own soldiers.

COVID19 in contrast, spread throughout the world with no vaccines available for a year. When the vaccine finally came out, the USA was first to make a decent vaccine. So if China was trying to make a bio-weapon out of COVID19, they did an incredibly shitty job. So shitty, that it strains the imagination to imagine it as a manufactured bioweapon. It would have been far more effective to spread smallpox or Anthrax again (for example) instead of COVID19 if they actually wanted to cause harm.

Better bioweapons exist.

 

[Space Lynx]

You need some critical thinking skills man. Thinking something does not equal fact. And this whole shit doesn't do anyone any good. The cats already out of the bag.

Hmm, well I have already said multiple times I agree with Fauci, and I agree with him here... most likely it did come from a natural source, but not totally convinced it didn't either, same as the link I gave. I never said it was fact. Not once... like most people you are putting words in my mouth to lessen me.

It seems you are the one without critical thinking skills, if you are disagreeing with Fauci, the 50+ year expert. My guess is it came from an underground food market still where humans be eating stuff they shouldn't be eating, but I have not thrown out the idea it was an accident from the lab either, human hubris can manifest in many different ways, for example when they collected these bats, did they isolate them far away in air tight containment areas? Would these bats taken from far away in different regions ever crossed paths naturally/migratorily or was this lab stuff the only place they were exposed together breathing the same air? Many different bat species, and I already admitted I don't know if they have migratory patterns or not.

Criticize all you want, I find nothing wrong with asking questions, and neither should scientists, that's part of the scientific method...

I've said it before and I'll say it again.

COVID19 is a shitty weapon. Good weapons are Anthrax or Smallpox: vaccinations are readily available (although full of side-effects), which means that most people don't want to take vaccines. You can prepare for biological warfare by simply vaccinating your own soldiers before spreading the virus around. That's why bio-weapons are effective: you hurt the enemy, while secretly protecting your own soldiers.

COVID19 in contrast, spread throughout the world with no vaccines available for a year. When the vaccine finally came out, the USA was first to make a decent vaccine. So if China was trying to make a bio-weapon out of COVID19, they did an incredibly shitty job. So shitty, that it strains the imagination to imagine it as a manufactured bioweapon. It would have been far more effective to spread smallpox again (for example) instead of COVID19 if they actually wanted to cause harm.

no one is even talking about weapons here... but ok great way to derail the discussion... lol

 

[dragontamer5788]

no one is even talking about weapons here... but ok great way to derail the discussion... lol

Wait, I thought you were talking about "manufacturing" a disease? What other purpose to manufacturing diseases is there aside from bio-weapons?

I guess I'm not understanding the implications of your argument. Lets say China "manufactured" COVID19. Why would they do this? A bio-weapon is the most natural argument in my brain. I'm not really seeing other possibilities.

 

[R-T-B]

but again Dr. Fauci said May 11th he is not convinced the virus came from natural sources... but all of you are still convinced it was without a doubt. I'll link it again. interesting that even you all now disagree with Fauci... hmm. not sure what to make of any of it now.

Dr. Anthony Fauci says he's 'not convinced' Covid-19 developed naturally | CNN

Dr. Anthony Fauci told the Poynter Institute on May 11 that he wasn't totally convinced that Covid-19 developed naturally and that he thinks that more investigation into the origin is needed. CNN's Natasha Bertrand and Kylie Atwood have more.

www.cnn.com

There is a difference between saying something is possible and believing it actually is what factually happened.

I'm open to the idea, like Dr. Fauci. But there is no evidence to substantiate it yet.

 

[Space Lynx]

Wait, I thought you were talking about "manufacturing" a disease? What other purpose to manufacturing diseases is there aside from bio-weapons?

I guess I'm not understanding the implications of your argument. Lets say China "manufactured" COVID19. Why would they do this? A bio-weapon is the most natural argument in my brain. I'm not really seeing other possibilities.

did you read any of the posts? lol... wow... no one has talked about this even once...

this was about how people last year and even recently were making fun of the CDC director for suggesting covid may have been a lab accident, but Fauci on May 11th... I posted the link twice already... on CNN stated he was not totally convinced it came from natural sources. suggesting a lab accident possibility.

the hypocrisy, is all I was pointing out...