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Outrageous graphics card market!

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I just want to share my thoughts..more like vent! lol

I wonder what the future holds for system builders like me? Over the past 20 years system building has been a hobby for me. The cryptocurrency boom has put a stop to my budget builds pretty much. Last year at this time I bought 3 GTX 1650s for under $500 now im lucky if I can buy just 1 for that price, and IF its in stock. I never thought I would have any use for some old video cards I have in storage like AMD RX 550 and 560s. Now they are selling on Ebay for $100+. I know some are still better than integrated graphics but they lack storage and features to match up with todays technology. I dont like what cryptocurrency mining has done to the tech industry. I just read about CHIA which uses storage space and wonder how it will effect the HDD and SSD industry if it starts to take off... I just wonder if anyone else out there has any thoughts? I know im not alone in this thinking!
 
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Believe it or not, many people have migrated to cloud gaming (GeForce Now, Google Stadia, xCloud) and consoles (PS5, XBOX Series X/S).

It was predicted 2 years ago:

It's not worth it to build a PC right now, unless you really need it for work. GPU prices will be normal again in 2023 (it will be the new 2019 of this cycle).

And then in 2025 you're gonna see a new mining craze and BTC reaching 10m USD.

Rinse and repeat every 4 years. 2013, 2017, 2021 etc etc.

I'm honestly surprised people have so short memory:
 

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Thread complaining about gpu prices that have been bad for a year now... 23?

This is nothing new.
 
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Thread complaining about gpu prices that have been bad for a year now... 23?

This is nothing new.
You've only got 23 threads?
LTT forums we're up to 200 or so. Most just get merged or locked.

And as for OP.
Be grateful you have at least one RX 560. Many people are stuck with worse cards.
 
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Thread complaining about gpu prices that have been bad for a year now... 23?

Hasn't been a year yet. Started more in December for all GPUs but before that you could still get anything that wasn't brand new for fair prices. I picked up 2-3 engineering samples including a Radeon Pro Duo, Vega 56, and a 1070 within the last year all for really good prices. It was only in January that I gave up looking too hard at anything newer than Tahiti.


If you're a gamer still looking for deals, don't mind getting a little deeper into your hardware, and can handle running a slightly esoteric config (for a normal PC): You can still game on Kepler/Maxwell Teslas pretty well.
 
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I'm honestly surprised people have so short memory:
I don't. People laughed when I told them it'd happen again. Not so funny now, eh?
 

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Believe it or not, many people have migrated to cloud gaming (GeForce Now, Google Stadia, xCloud) and consoles (PS5, XBOX Series X/S).

There are 2 issues with Cloud Gaming that can't be resolved no matter how much companies want it to be so.

Crappy internet connections.

Latency.

I have held that up to anyone that thinks these 2 things can be overcome but they simply can't. There is obviously no such thing as "offline mode" for Cloud Gaming for people that have a crappy internet connection like you can do with Steam or not needing an internet connection at all like with games bought from GOG or a lot of games from EGS.
 
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The entire mess will be at its worst by end of this year. I suspect some would say we are already there. Companies will start delaying product launches because there is no point, why market what you cant make or sell. Large foundries are building new capacity and it will be going online just in time for the coming crash in demand. 2023 and 2024 will be the year of overcapacity and it will result in massive drops in pricing overall. Then it will be the foundries that cry about all the money they invested. Companies will begin closing fabs and we will start the whole darn cycle over again.

I just hope they built in long term demand in their manufacturing contracts.

We have seen all this before, but never all at once, usually its just one segment of the market, for a while it was RAM, then it was SSD's, then it was Mechanical STORAGE, Then CPU's and Graphics cards. Right now its EVERYTHING, it was never anything earth shattering that caused the price / stock disruption for single product lines in the past, but something small, a fire, a flood, a power outage, or even regional weather issues. That last one, a 20 minute power outage blew my mind that these foundries are at such crazy production levels that there is NO room for anything to go wrong. Of course when you "cant" have anything go wrong, that's when things DO, I think the manufacturers knew this was coming, but why do anything about something that will result in super high profits!.

Ironically the opposite will come to pass soon enough, Will we see 3080TI cards at MSRP anytime soon? Not likely but eventually, in about 2 years, I wouldn't be surprised if you can get one at close to that.

The only question then will be? Does anybody have any money to buy them at that point?

All the gear that has been purchased over the last 2 years will eventually get pushed into retirement, at least for the primary use market, figure 3 years to 4 years for the corporate leased stock. There has been almost NO good supply of lease return hardware for almost 2 years now.

What little of it there was all got snapped up by vendors that had to supply all the work from home folks and students learning via remote.

But,

When all this new gear hits the secondary market it will be a torrent of hardware, it will be like nothing we have EVER seen before. All this consumer and corporate IT spending has a real dark side.

When the current cycle ends, it will crush the markets and destroy companies that depend on hardware sales to survive.

It will send used gear prices crashing and will result in a glut of new gear nobody really wants to spend premium dollars on, that is when prices will fall and get back to "MSRP"

I don't look forward to that, it makes it hard for anybody in this field. when this finally occurs it will have repercussions on every corner of this industry.
 

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Hasn't been a year yet. Started more in December for all GPUs but before that you could still get anything that wasn't brand new for fair prices. I picked up 2-3 engineering samples including a Radeon Pro Duo, Vega 56, and a 1070 within the last year all for really good prices. It was only in January that I gave up looking too hard at anything newer than Tahiti.


If you're a gamer still looking for deals, don't mind getting a little deeper into your hardware, and can handle running a slightly esoteric config (for a normal PC): You can still game on Kepler/Maxwell Teslas pretty well.
Feels like a year with all these threads, videos, news, etc.
 
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Companies will start delaying product launches because there is no point, why market what you cant make or sell.

No no, they're selling just fine. Just look at AMD and Nvidia's quarterlies. They've skyrocketed from GPU revenue.
 
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There are 2 issues with Cloud Gaming that can't be resolved no matter how much companies want it to be so.

Crappy internet connections.

Latency.

I have held that up to anyone that thinks these 2 things can be overcome but they simply can't. There is obviously no such thing as "offline mode" for Cloud Gaming for people that have a crappy internet connection like you can do with Steam or not needing an internet connection at all like with games bought from GOG or a lot of games from EGS.
Many countries already invest in fiber infrastructure. Telecommuting and e-schools require fast connections. Digital transformation will get bigger and bigger every year until 2030.

If you don't like cloud gaming (I don't like it either), then you can switch to consoles (that actually still have a physical medium, unlike modern PCs ditching ODD and requiring downloads from Steam/GOG etc).
 
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There are 2 issues with Cloud Gaming that can't be resolved no matter how much companies want it to be so.

Crappy internet connections.

Latency.

I have held that up to anyone that thinks these 2 things can be overcome but they simply can't. There is obviously no such thing as "offline mode" for Cloud Gaming for people that have a crappy internet connection like you can do with Steam or not needing an internet connection at all like with games bought from GOG or a lot of games from EGS.
Interestingly that isn't true for just Cloud Gaming, but Remote work in general. I have spent the last 18 months dealing with the entirely inadequate connectivity and having to explain to end users "endlessly" that he current infrastructure just wasn't built for this level of traffic!.

While there is hope in some areas with community Broadband projects, there needs to be a lot more of that.

Where those projects were successful they actually have the much needed bandwidth to setup services and do remote work, but many states bought into the BS FUD spread by Incumbent ISPs and now those same ISP's are gouging customers for ever penny they have, for terrible service!.
 

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Many countries already invest in fiber infrastructure. Telecommuting and e-schools require fast connections. Digital transformation will get bigger and bigger every year until 2030.

If you don't like cloud gaming (I don't like it either), then you can switch to consoles (that actually still have a physical medium, unlike modern PCs ditching ODD and requiring downloads from Steam/GOG etc).

Or I could stick with PC gaming with discrete GPUs. I already have a 3 year backlog of games that I have bought that will run just fine on my 2070 Super and if I wanted to I could double that easily. dGPUs are going to come down a good bit if the crypto-mining craze goes up in flames like it always has in the past and with all of the fabs being built. The trick is to buy a GPU when that happens and hold on through the next crypto-mining craze.
 
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No no, they're selling just fine. Just look at AMD and Nvidia's quarterlies. They've skyrocketed from GPU revenue.
I was speaking of the "next" gen stuff that normally would come in at the 2 year mark from launch of the 3000 Series.

It wont be released for another 2 years likely 2024, because they just don't have the capacity to make it at this point.
 
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ive decided not to get pissed off with the GPU nightmare theres sod all we can do about it its just wasted energy ive sorta settled on "ill get one when i get one" im smiling on the outside it could be worse. :) .
 
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No no, they're selling just fine. Just look at AMD and Nvidia's quarterlies. They've skyrocketed from GPU revenue.
As AMD and Nvidia would certainly agree, nothing wrong with Milking the Cow you already have :)
 
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Or I could stick with PC gaming with a discrete GPUs. I already have a 4 year backlog of games that I have bought that will run just fine on my 2070 Super and if I wanted to I could double that easily. dGPUs are going to come down a good bit if the crypto-mining craze goes up in flames like it always has in the past and with all of the fabs being built. The trick is to buy a GPU when that happens and hold on through the next crypto-mining craze.
If you want to stick to PC gaming, then you need to schedule your purchases (according to crypto 4-year cycles).

Not everyone has the discipline or the foresight to do that... hence why people complain incessantly every 4 years like clockwork.

Complaining ain't gonna drop the prices, that's for sure. Only increased supply vs demand will fix it.
 
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The GPUpocalypse lasting through 2023 -- the next gen. of GPU's will be releasing then!
 
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Believe it or not, many people have migrated to cloud gaming (GeForce Now, Google Stadia, xCloud) and consoles (PS5, XBOX Series X/S).

It was predicted 2 years ago:

It's not worth it to build a PC right now, unless you really need it for work. GPU prices will be normal again in 2023 (it will be the new 2019 of this cycle).

And then in 2025 you're gonna see a new mining craze and BTC reaching 10m USD.

Rinse and repeat every 4 years. 2013, 2017, 2021 etc etc.

I'm honestly surprised people have so short memory:
I agree with your analogy overall, but this particular cycle has so many causes and secondary effects I have lost count.

I think this particular cycle, given the incredible scale of it, is going to last longer than 3 years.
 
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I just wonder if anyone else out there has any thoughts? I know im not alone in this thinking!
It is pretty messed up. I'm lucky in being more interested in older games / Indie's than the latest recycled Ubisoft / EA / Squeenix IP, so there's much less pressure to upgrade as my GTX 1660 runs everything I throw at it just fine. I have a spare 1650 Super I was planning to sell but given non-existent stock for months on end, I'm definitely keeping that "just in case". I do feel most sorry though for those whose GPU dies and have a CPU with no iGPU resulting in an unusable computer, but for everyone else being unable to upgrade GPU doesn't mean the "death of PC gaming" as some portray. If anything 2021 is a perfect opportunity for backlog clearance starting with the oldest and working through to the newest.

I don't see "streaming" as the solution to anything though. If everyone migrated to that, in the long run that will just cause the death of modding & modding communities which to me is the main thing that separates PC's from consoles. (Why even bother building any gaming PC for what's basically "Youtube with a feedback loop" that a TV + $50 dongle + Bluetooth controller can handle). Not to mention all the PC game streaming services I've seen have tiny catalogue sizes ("Enjoy +100 games on Ubisoft+" + "Play over 100 high-quality PC games on XBox Game Pass for PC") combined = less than 1% vs what's available to buy (+30,000 on Steam / +5,000 on GOG), and most of what I like isn't on streaming anyway.

Bottom line for me is I have zero interest in cloud gaming, zero interest in switching to consoles, a large backlog & game collection + a fondness for replaying older games = I'm pretty much set for the next 10 years even if I don't buy another game. The only thing that would force a GPU upgrade is buying a 34" Ultrawide, but that's a long-term "want" rather than a urgent "need" right now.

Edit: As for CHIA, I don't know what's going to happen with that, but given how people seem to act like a punch-drunk herd of sheep over "regular" crypto, I have already recently bought a 2TB SSD + new NAS drives and made sure I have 2x spare drives (1x NAS + 1x 4TB portable) just in case the crypto-dorks screw that up too (I don't think I've seen anyone comment so far that the "cloud services" promoted as the 'solution' to shortages are the biggest users of the same high-enduance drive market the CHIA morons are trying to screw up...)
 
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I don't. People laughed when I told them it'd happen again. Not so funny now, eh?

It was never like this though, to my memory anyway. I don't ever remember R7 270x cards being gobbled up by miners and them costing minimum +50% MSRP on Ebay.
 
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I agree with your analogy overall, but this particular cycle has so many causes and secondary effects I have lost count.

I think this particular cycle, given the incredible scale of it, is going to last longer than 3 years.
Here's my prediction:

Late 2021: BTC ATH (500k USD)
Early 2022: alts ATH (ETH 70k USD, XMR 17k USD etc.)
Late 2022: BTC -84% correction (80k USD)
Early 2023: normal prices for PC hardware (increased fab capacity will certainly help too!)

You can bookmark/screenshot me if you want. :)
 
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It was never like this though, to my memory anyway. I don't ever remember R7 270x cards being gobbled up by miners and them costing minimum +50% MSRP on Ebay.
Pandemic made it way worse. Even I did not anticipate that part.
 
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Many countries already invest in fiber infrastructure. Telecommuting and e-schools require fast connections. Digital transformation will get bigger and bigger every year until 2030.

If you don't like cloud gaming (I don't like it either), then you can switch to consoles (that actually still have a physical medium, unlike modern PCs ditching ODD and requiring downloads from Steam/GOG etc).

No, PC gaming is not going to disappear and no, cloud gaming will not take over.
 
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No, PC gaming is not going to disappear and no, cloud gaming will not take over.
Let's have this discussion again in 2030+, shall we? I have patience.

ps: When I told people back in 2004 that Steam would eradicate PC game retailers, they mocked me. Nobody liked forced Steam installs via HL2.
 
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