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Tariff Effect on PC Component Pricing

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#1
Has anyone seen any articles detailing the potential impact in dollars of Trump's 2nd round of tariffs an the cost of builting a new PC ? From Reuters :

"While chips were largely spared from the initial list of targeted goods released in April, U.S. trade officials on Friday released a second tariff list of 284 products worth $16 billion that includes the processor and memory chips at the heart of Intel's business.

Those tariffs will not go into effect until after a public comment period, and there is a chance that chips could be cut from it before it is made final, analysts said. But Intel shares dropped 3.4 percent to $53.22 on Monday on news of a stock downgrade and investor concerns over tariffs."

Intel has the ability to reduce the impact by shifting production to other fab locations with three in the United States, one in Ireland and one in Israel. But most of these get sent back to china ... "then sends it to China for low-level assembly work and then brings it back so it can be put into a device manufactured in the United States, the chip would get hit by the tariff. " but Intel also has assemply plants and test centers in Malaysia, Costa Rica, Malaysia and Vietnam so could avoid that by doing the assembly there. Intel's flash memory isn't at risk, but a 3rd round has been announced.

Now we have storage, GFC cards, memory and everything else .... with the chinese imports costing more, the competition will be able to raise their prices. Unless exempted, laptops I expect will be the hardest hit since just about every brand in existence comes from ODMs headquartered in Taiwan but with production facilities in mainland china.

With PC sales being down so long due to the GFX card cost situation, there is a lot of pent up demand ... these cost increases will put a big kabash on its recovery.
 
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#2
I have a lot to say about this but I cannot do so without insulting people.
 

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#3
Isn't it kind of ridiculous how they don't make processors from start to finish at one campus? I mean, they kind of put that vulnerability on themselves.
 
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#4
Isn't it kind of ridiculous how they don't make processors from start to finish at one campus? I mean, they kind of put that vulnerability on themselves.
Given the global nature of the economy? And the fact that protectionism has been thought to be dead since it was proven ineffective many centuries ago?

No.
 

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#5
The transit between facilities alone adds how much to the final product price? If one shipment between facilities is delayed, how much constraint does that put on supply? Crossing borders adds more complications (especially customs).
 
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#6
Given the global nature of the economy? And the fact that protectionism has been thought to be dead since it was proven ineffective many centuries ago?
No.
Protectionism is dead? Since when? Basically every single country in the world has tariffs and protectionist policies. In fact, China was able to negotiate some extremely favorable protectionist policies for their domestic industries (subsidies for domestic companies and tariffs on foreign companies) due to their status as a developing country a few years/decades ago.

China today has some of the highest tariffs in the world. There is a reason why millions of Chinese consumers flood to Hong Kong to buy foreign products and luxury goods. I was in China as recently as 2016, and in the average shopping mall, name brand products (clothes, shoes, certain electronics, etc) cost way more than it does in the US despite the average household income being 1/6 that of the US (1/4 when adjusted for purchasing power).
 

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#7
Protectionism is dead? Since when? Basically every single country in the world has tariffs and protectionist policies. In fact, China was able to negotiate some extremely favorable protectionist policies for their domestic industries (subsidies for domestic companies and tariffs on foreign companies) due to their status as a developing country a few years/decades ago.

China today has some of the highest tariffs in the world. There is a reason why millions of Chinese consumers flood to Hong Kong to buy foreign products and luxury goods. I was in China as recently as 2016, and in the average shopping mall, name brand products (clothes, shoes, certain electronics, etc) cost way more than it does in the US despite the average household income being 1/6 that of the US.
Yeah, the lopsided protectionism that China had for years are the reason the U.S. started down the increased tariff road.

I too found many products in China more expensive than the same ones here very frequently.
 
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#8
Protectionism is dead? Since when? Basically every single country in the world has tariffs and protectionist policies.
It's been resurgent lately, but it largely failed to save something called the British Empire. You may have heard of it.
 
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#9
It's been resurgent lately, but it largely failed to save something called the British Empire. You may have heard of it.
It is not resurgent, because it never went away. You just haven't been paying attention. As I stated in my second paragraph, many countries, including China, have had tariffs (and rather high tariffs) for decades. South Korea had lots of protectionist policies for decades after the Korean war too.

If anything, Trump's threat of tariffs is basically just Mutually Assured Destruction - its goal is to get other countries to reduce THEIR preexisting tariffs.
 
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#10
It is not resurgent, because it never went away. You just haven't been paying attention.
On a global scale it was massively reduced, at least in the west. Have a read.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protectionism

Since the end of World War II, it has been the stated policy of most First World countries to eliminate protectionism through free trade policies enforced by international treaties and organizations such as the World Trade Organization[70] Certain policies of First World governments have been criticized as protectionist, however, such as the Common Agricultural Policy[71] in the European Union, longstanding agricultural subsidies and proposed "Buy American" provisions[72] in economic recovery packages in the United States.
There is that interesting caveat at the end though. Perhaps the idea of eliminating protectionism is more lip service than reality.

Either way, I am not a fan.
 

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#11
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#12

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#13
The transit between facilities alone adds how much to the final product price? If one shipment between facilities is delayed, how much constraint does that put on supply? Crossing borders adds more complications (especially customs).
I'm reminded of how (at least a few years ago) fish caught in the northern atlantic is sent to china for preparation and then shipped back to europe for selling. It would'nt be done if it wasn't worth it.
 
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#14
Protectionism is dead? Since when? Basically every single country in the world has tariffs and protectionist policies. In fact, China was able to negotiate some extremely favorable protectionist policies for their domestic industries (subsidies for domestic companies and tariffs on foreign companies) due to their status as a developing country a few years/decades ago.

China today has some of the highest tariffs in the world. There is a reason why millions of Chinese consumers flood to Hong Kong to buy foreign products and luxury goods. I was in China as recently as 2016, and in the average shopping mall, name brand products (clothes, shoes, certain electronics, etc) cost way more than it does in the US despite the average household income being 1/6 that of the US (1/4 when adjusted for purchasing power).
Indeed, many countries including the US have had such policies in place the entire time.

What I don't get however, is the "Well they did it first" mentality. As you said... it didn't work so well for China as goods became more expensive. It may have caused more Chinese goods to be consumed in China, but that has failed to produce the sort of economic growth for the average citizen that one would hope for.

Tariffs are stupid. Why would a country want to intentionally make things more expensive? The idea would be that it would make domestic goods more attractive, being cheaper... but domestic goods will just raise their price to just under the foreign competition's post-tariff price. It's a lose-lose all around.
 

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#15
You say that like I'm concerned about or want the type of jobs that are outsourced...

Frankly, I don't.
This is a bit condecending i feel, and possibly ignorant. Every industry feels the effects from outsourcing, not just ... Whatever jobs you feel are below you. You may not like the idea of say metalworking but a job's a job. It's possible to adapt though, as is evident in how the unemployment levels in many countries are roughly the same as before "x stole our jobs". The real trial for the western world will be the increased automation.
 

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#16
As you said... it didn't work so well for China as goods became more expensive. It may have caused more Chinese goods to be consumed in China, but that has failed to produce the sort of economic growth for the average citizen that one would hope for.
But it did. Their intent is to make Chinese buy Chinese. The only way for foreign companies to reasonably sell to the Chinese is to set up manufacturing in China (especially happening with automotive companies like GM and Daimler). The economic growth comes in the form of these external companies investing huge amounts of money in China to set up production and sustain it.

Why would a country want to intentionally make things more expensive?
To make outsourcing cost-prohibitive. If your country isn't producing anything, it doesn't have the purchasing power to import anything either.


The idea of borders is to create self-sufficient economies. The only goods that should be traded are those of the exotic category (e.g. bananas or high tech) or filling in gaps (e.g. agriculture goods during famine).

 
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#17
This is a bit condecending i feel, and possibly ignorant.
*shrugs* it was only my opinion. Few of my fields are affected by outsourcing due to their very nature (globally sourced, remote positions).

I will fully admit this biases my outlook and should be considered with my statements.
 
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#18
*shrugs* it was only my opinion. Few of my fields are affected by outsourcing due to their very nature.
Outsourcing still ends up affecting everyone though. Less people with jobs overall means less money overall to buy stuff and services sold by people with higher incomes and non-outsource-able jobs. Henry Ford raised the wages of his workers so they could afford to buy his cars and continue the cycle of keeping himself in business.
 
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#19
But it did. Their intent is to make Chinese buy Chinese. The only way for foreign companies to reasonably sell to the Chinese is to set up manufacturing in China (especially happening with automotive companies like GM and Daimler). The economic growth comes in the form of these external companies investing huge amounts of money in China to set up production and sustain it.
To make outsourcing cost-prohibitive. If your country isn't producing anything, it doesn't have the purchasing power to import anything either.
The idea of borders is to create self-sufficient economies. The only goods that should be traded are those of the exotic category (e.g. bananas or high tech) or filling in gaps (e.g. agriculture goods during famine).
Right. I understand the the idea is to make self-sufficient economies. But that begs one to question the assumption that self-sufficient economies are best for consumers in the first place. I'd contend not. You say it did produce the economic growth for the individual, but the average Chinese income is still 1/3 that of America's. Granted, that number has grown immensely in recent decades, but I'd pin that on a general move toward more capitalistic policy in general rather than it being caused by asymmetric trade itself.

At the end of the day, tariffs hurt the consumer. It's arguable whether they help production, but helping production doesn't help the economy in the larger global sense, unless those produced goods can be exported... and if everyone is preventing everyone else from importing things with tariffs... Well, the consumer gets screwed because things are more expensive. Tariffs drive prices up. There's no getting around it. I'm not saying that other countries like China having asymmetric trade policies like they do is fair. I'm just saying tariffs aren't the answer. Tariffs are putting a band-aid on a sore throat. Fix what makes it so expensive to operate in America, and you won't need tariffs to compensate.
 

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#20
Granted, that number has grown immensely in recent decades, but I'd pin that on a general move toward more capitalistic policy in general rather than it being caused by asymmetric trade itself.
China has "state capitalism"--a derivative of socialism. China has benefited hugely from their trade surplus with other countries.

At the end of the day, tariffs hurt the consumer.
Consumers can't consume unless they have money to spend from producing. China is now producing more than the USA is. How much longer until USA doesn't have enough producers to consume anymore?

Fix what makes it so expensive to operate in America, and you won't need tariffs to compensate.
What remedy is there? China has made itself mostly self-sustaining. They aim to import less every year (-2.8% annualized): https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/chn/
 

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#21
It's been resurgent lately, but it largely failed to save something called the British Empire. You may have heard of it.
Well when it's cheaper to make pottery and even HP source (MMMMM) in Europe then ship it to the UK, it's sickening really.

Cannot help thinking some ones being a little to greedy.
 
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#22
China has "state capitalism"--a derivative of socialism. China has benefited hugely from their trade surplus with other countries.
Consumers can't consume unless they have money to spend from producing. China is now producing more than the USA is. How much longer until USA doesn't have enough producers to consume anymore?
What remedy is there? China has made itself mostly self-sustaining. They aim to import less every year (-2.8% annualized): https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/chn/
I know what China has. A state adopting capitalistic principles in a sort of quasi-capitalism. It presents as much more capitalistic to the outside world that it did say, 50-70 years ago, is my point.

I agree that consumers can't consume unless they have to money to spend from producing. I totally agree that America should produce, and export. That's not what I have a problem with. My point is that there is a reason that manufacturing and production moves out of the US and to places like China. It's because it's expensive as hell to operate here. Making it more expensive to operate elsewhere just makes everything more expensive. The idea should be to lower cost of production, not artificially inflate the price of producing elsewhere. The remedy is to remove the barriers that make it so expensive to operate in the US. I've my own ideas about what that looks like, but it's just going to cause a bigger argument, and send this spiraling off topic of course. I'm sure you can guess...

Regardless, my point is that inflating the price of producing elsewhere doesn't help anyone (except those doing the selling, of course.) It simply makes everything more expensive.
 
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#23
I'm bowing out of this discussion because I know I will only be a disservice to it as I don't have a good background in it. I appreciate all the feedback on my comments, but I like being well-researched before diving into a field (being told what to think rarely ends well for anyone), so I'll leave this one to those more confident (and would remind onlookers who are in my shoes to beware confident invidiuals without merit, actually) :p )

Keep in mind the context in which my comments were made: A man who is fully admitted ignorant of the subject matter.
 
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