• Welcome to TechPowerUp Forums, Guest! Please check out our forum guidelines for info related to our community.

The Balloon Falls: Memory Chip Price Decrease in Q4 2017 Prompts Investor Fear

Raevenlord

News Editor
Joined
Aug 12, 2016
Messages
3,755 (1.35/day)
Location
Portugal
System Name The Ryzening
Processor AMD Ryzen 9 5900X
Motherboard MSI X570 MAG TOMAHAWK
Cooling Lian Li Galahad 360mm AIO
Memory 32 GB G.Skill Trident Z F4-3733 (4x 8 GB)
Video Card(s) Gigabyte RTX 3070 Ti
Storage Boot: Transcend MTE220S 2TB, Kintson A2000 1TB, Seagate Firewolf Pro 14 TB
Display(s) Acer Nitro VG270UP (1440p 144 Hz IPS)
Case Lian Li O11DX Dynamic White
Audio Device(s) iFi Audio Zen DAC
Power Supply Seasonic Focus+ 750 W
Mouse Cooler Master Masterkeys Lite L
Keyboard Cooler Master Masterkeys Lite L
Software Windows 10 x64
Reuters reports that a sudden (if ridiculous) 5% drop in memory chip prices in Q4 2017 has brought revenue expectations and investors' profit measurements to a teetering halt. 5% may not look like much - it certainly isn't much when we look at the historic price increases that almost doubled the cost of DDR4 memory kits, as you can see in the PC Part Picker chart below. This memory module price chart doesn't include the 5% drop yet, probably because it takes time for memory chip pricing to materialize in end-user module pricing. But for investors, it's like a spark in a paper archive - it could signal an impending price decrease that would push all profit estimates out the window.

This 5% drop in pricing has prompted industry analysts to review their profit estimates for 2018, and expect that the memory industry's growth rate will fall by more than half this year to 30 percent. You read that right - investors are scared because growth rates will be 30 percent instead of 60 percent. Oh the joys of inflated pricing, and slower-than-usual ramp-up to keep demand higher than supply. The joys of economic capitalism, where prices for consumers go up, and an industries' value skyrockets by more than 70$ in a single year (2017).





This news led to a knee-jerk reaction from investors and the stock market for memory manufacturers as a whole, though; Samsung shares dipped 7.5 percent last week, while SK Hynix's fell 6.2 percent (January 6th seems to be the tipping point). But analysts say that there is unlikely to be a sudden crash, and that 2018 should still be a relatively stable year for chipmakers. This is due to the ever increasing memory demands of smartphones - average DRAM memory of new smartphone models launched last quarter increased by 38 percent from the second quarter of 2016, while NAND content measured by gigabyte jumped a staggering 84 percent, according to an analysis by BNP Paribas, as reported by Reuters.



Analyst firm Macquarie estimates Samsung's chip division's operating profit margin jumped to 47 percent last year from 26.5 percent in 2016, and will rise further to 55.5 percent this year. DRAM manufacturers' rush to ramp up production - quadrupling manufacturing investment for 2017 and 2018 combined to $38 billion from 2016's $10 billion - prices may decline as much as 18 percent next year, according to brokerage firm Nomura.

Such solid demand will keep the industry's margin healthy this year, and chipmakers' investment in more advanced technology will help them cut production costs and stay profitable even as prices ease, analysts say.

View at TechPowerUp Main Site
 

bug

Joined
May 22, 2015
Messages
13,163 (4.07/day)
Processor Intel i5-12600k
Motherboard Asus H670 TUF
Cooling Arctic Freezer 34
Memory 2x16GB DDR4 3600 G.Skill Ripjaws V
Video Card(s) EVGA GTX 1060 SC
Storage 500GB Samsung 970 EVO, 500GB Samsung 850 EVO, 1TB Crucial MX300 and 2TB Crucial MX500
Display(s) Dell U3219Q + HP ZR24w
Case Raijintek Thetis
Audio Device(s) Audioquest Dragonfly Red :D
Power Supply Seasonic 620W M12
Mouse Logitech G502 Proteus Core
Keyboard G.Skill KM780R
Software Arch Linux + Win10
Oh the joys of inflated pricing, and slower-than-usual ramp-up to keep demand higher than supply.

I think this mechanism itself is just a means to finding a balance between the pace of innovation and recovering the initial investment. I mean, if everybody just flooded the market with RAM, the profits will just dry and nobody would have the cash to build the fabs for the next generation.

Of course, the above does not apply when collusion happens. Collusion is bad (that why it's also illegal).
 
Joined
Feb 11, 2009
Messages
5,389 (0.98/day)
System Name Cyberline
Processor Intel Core i7 2600k -> 12600k
Motherboard Asus P8P67 LE Rev 3.0 -> Gigabyte Z690 Auros Elite DDR4
Cooling Tuniq Tower 120 -> Custom Watercoolingloop
Memory Corsair (4x2) 8gb 1600mhz -> Crucial (8x2) 16gb 3600mhz
Video Card(s) AMD RX480 -> ... nope still the same :'(
Storage Samsung 750 Evo 250gb SSD + WD 1tb x 2 + WD 2tb -> 2tb MVMe SSD
Display(s) Philips 32inch LPF5605H (television) -> Dell S3220DGF
Case antec 600 -> Thermaltake Tenor HTCP case
Audio Device(s) Focusrite 2i4 (USB)
Power Supply Seasonic 620watt 80+ Platinum
Mouse Elecom EX-G
Keyboard Rapoo V700
Software Windows 10 Pro 64bit
Ram is one of the main reasons im holding off building a new pc, cannot swallow paying so much more now then a few years ago.
 
Joined
Sep 17, 2014
Messages
20,780 (5.97/day)
Location
The Washing Machine
Processor i7 8700k 4.6Ghz @ 1.24V
Motherboard AsRock Fatal1ty K6 Z370
Cooling beQuiet! Dark Rock Pro 3
Memory 16GB Corsair Vengeance LPX 3200/C16
Video Card(s) ASRock RX7900XT Phantom Gaming
Storage Samsung 850 EVO 1TB + Samsung 830 256GB + Crucial BX100 250GB + Toshiba 1TB HDD
Display(s) Gigabyte G34QWC (3440x1440)
Case Fractal Design Define R5
Audio Device(s) Harman Kardon AVR137 + 2.1
Power Supply EVGA Supernova G2 750W
Mouse XTRFY M42
Keyboard Lenovo Thinkpad Trackpoint II
Software W10 x64
Ram is one of the main reasons im holding off building a new pc, cannot swallow paying so much more now then a few years ago.

Yeah this had me waiting for a looong time too, only to see prices rise further in Q4 2017 :)

Just last week I saw the first price drop of about 10% across the board in NL. I jumped on it, got sick of waiting and wasn't convinced it would drop down to prices of a year ago. :p
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2009
Messages
225 (0.04/day)
Location
Finland
Processor 4690K @ 4.2GHz
Motherboard Asus Z97-P
Cooling CRYORIG H7
Memory 16GB (2x8GB) HyperX Fury, DDRS 1600MH2
Video Card(s) EVGA GTX 1070 SC Black Edition
Storage Lots
Display(s) 24" Predator GN246HL, 1080p, 144Hz
Case Phanteks P300
Power Supply Corsair CX650
Software Windows 10 Pro
Benchmark Scores 1/0 0.o
Ram is one of the main reasons im holding off building a new pc, cannot swallow paying so much more now then a few years ago.

Brace yourself for when you start looking for that sweet high end GPU .. :fear:
 
Joined
Jun 26, 2017
Messages
90 (0.04/day)
Location
Germany
Processor Core i5-6500
Motherboard MSI Z170A Krait Gaming
Memory 2x8GB Kingston HyperX Fury Black
Video Card(s) Radeon HD7970
Display(s) 2x BenQ E2200HD
Case Xigmatek Utgard
Power Supply OCZ Fatal1ty 550W
Mouse Mad Catz M.M.O.TE
Keyboard Coolermaster Quickfire TK MX Blue
Software Windows 10 64bit
Building a PC at the moment is just eye-watering expensive.

The 16GB of DDR4 RAM I put in my main rig in 2015 are now way more than double the price.
A new GPU to replace my ageing HD7970 is stupidly expensive, even when buying used.
New Mainboards are ridiculous in their pricing if you want certain features or looks.
And to top that off, I'd need a new mainboard to really upgrade my CPU despite there being 6-core CPUs on the same socket in existence.

WTF?
 
Joined
Dec 18, 2005
Messages
8,253 (1.24/day)
System Name money pit..
Processor Intel 9900K 4.8 at 1.152 core voltage minus 0.120 offset
Motherboard Asus rog Strix Z370-F Gaming
Cooling Dark Rock TF air cooler.. Stock vga air coolers with case side fans to help cooling..
Memory 32 gb corsair vengeance 3200
Video Card(s) Palit Gaming Pro OC 2080TI
Storage 150 nvme boot drive partition.. 1T Sandisk sata.. 1T Transend sata.. 1T 970 evo nvme m 2..
Display(s) 27" Asus PG279Q ROG Swift 165Hrz Nvidia G-Sync, IPS.. 2560x1440..
Case Gigabyte mid-tower.. cheap and nothing special..
Audio Device(s) onboard sounds with stereo amp..
Power Supply EVGA 850 watt..
Mouse Logitech G700s
Keyboard Logitech K270
Software Win 10 pro..
Benchmark Scores Firestike 29500.. timepsy 14000..
the common approach to high ram prices is to use less.. what would have been a 32 gig machine becomes a 16 gig machine.. what would have a 16 gig machine becomes an 8 gig machine and so on down..

in the end it also means less new machines.. investors just love to see things going up.. even a tiny downturn in an upwards trend scares them.. he he

the ram market is quite clearly rigged.. there isnt much doubt about that and i recon we are in the "less new machines" part of the phase.. which i recon means ram prices have to come down and so will investors profits.. he he

trog
 
Joined
Sep 17, 2014
Messages
20,780 (5.97/day)
Location
The Washing Machine
Processor i7 8700k 4.6Ghz @ 1.24V
Motherboard AsRock Fatal1ty K6 Z370
Cooling beQuiet! Dark Rock Pro 3
Memory 16GB Corsair Vengeance LPX 3200/C16
Video Card(s) ASRock RX7900XT Phantom Gaming
Storage Samsung 850 EVO 1TB + Samsung 830 256GB + Crucial BX100 250GB + Toshiba 1TB HDD
Display(s) Gigabyte G34QWC (3440x1440)
Case Fractal Design Define R5
Audio Device(s) Harman Kardon AVR137 + 2.1
Power Supply EVGA Supernova G2 750W
Mouse XTRFY M42
Keyboard Lenovo Thinkpad Trackpoint II
Software W10 x64
Building a PC at the moment is just eye-watering expensive.

The 16GB of DDR4 RAM I put in my main rig in 2015 are now way more than double the price.
A new GPU to replace my ageing HD7970 is stupidly expensive, even when buying used.
New Mainboards are ridiculous in their pricing if you want certain features or looks.
And to top that off, I'd need a new mainboard to really upgrade my CPU despite there being 6-core CPUs on the same socket in existence.

WTF?

That's competition on the CPU market being back, for ya :D
 
Joined
Feb 11, 2009
Messages
5,389 (0.98/day)
System Name Cyberline
Processor Intel Core i7 2600k -> 12600k
Motherboard Asus P8P67 LE Rev 3.0 -> Gigabyte Z690 Auros Elite DDR4
Cooling Tuniq Tower 120 -> Custom Watercoolingloop
Memory Corsair (4x2) 8gb 1600mhz -> Crucial (8x2) 16gb 3600mhz
Video Card(s) AMD RX480 -> ... nope still the same :'(
Storage Samsung 750 Evo 250gb SSD + WD 1tb x 2 + WD 2tb -> 2tb MVMe SSD
Display(s) Philips 32inch LPF5605H (television) -> Dell S3220DGF
Case antec 600 -> Thermaltake Tenor HTCP case
Audio Device(s) Focusrite 2i4 (USB)
Power Supply Seasonic 620watt 80+ Platinum
Mouse Elecom EX-G
Keyboard Rapoo V700
Software Windows 10 Pro 64bit
Brace yourself for when you start looking for that sweet high end GPU .. :fear:

oh I know, I bought my card back in the day NEW for 200 euro WITH a game... an equivalent card today costs 350 euro......(and yes, does not include a game)
 

Aquinus

Resident Wat-man
Joined
Jan 28, 2012
Messages
13,147 (2.96/day)
Location
Concord, NH, USA
System Name Apollo
Processor Intel Core i9 9880H
Motherboard Some proprietary Apple thing.
Memory 64GB DDR4-2667
Video Card(s) AMD Radeon Pro 5600M, 8GB HBM2
Storage 1TB Apple NVMe, 4TB External
Display(s) Laptop @ 3072x1920 + 2x LG 5k Ultrafine TB3 displays
Case MacBook Pro (16", 2019)
Audio Device(s) AirPods Pro, Sennheiser HD 380s w/ FIIO Alpen 2, or Logitech 2.1 Speakers
Power Supply 96w Power Adapter
Mouse Logitech MX Master 3
Keyboard Logitech G915, GL Clicky
Software MacOS 12.1
Brace yourself for when you start looking for that sweet high end GPU .. :fear:
Brace yourself just looking at a performance level GPU for crying out loud.

No one wants to buy outrageously priced DRAM or products outrageously priced devices due to DRAM. This is what happens when you let greed go too far. This will happen with GPUs soon enough as well and such trends will saturate the market with hardware and prices will plummet. This was going to happen sooner or later with all of the shenanigans going on lately.
 
Joined
Sep 25, 2012
Messages
2,074 (0.49/day)
Location
Jacksonhole Florida
System Name DEVIL'S ABYSS
Processor i7-4790K@4.6 GHz
Motherboard Asus Z97-Deluxe
Cooling Corsair H110 (2 x 140mm)(3 x 140mm case fans)
Memory 16GB Adata XPG V2 2400MHz
Video Card(s) EVGA 780 Ti Classified
Storage Intel 750 Series 400GB (AIC), Plextor M6e 256GB (M.2), 13 TB storage
Display(s) Crossover 27QW (27"@ 2560x1440)
Case Corsair Obsidian 750D Airflow
Audio Device(s) Realtek ALC1150
Power Supply Cooler Master V1000
Mouse Ttsports Talon Blu
Keyboard Logitech G510
Software Windows 10 Pro x64 version 1803
Benchmark Scores Passmark CPU score = 13080
My Z97 PC has 16 Gb DDR3-2400 that cost $140 in early 2014, a bit high, but I considered 2400 MHz to be the "sweet spot" at the time (fast, but not over-priced). Now 16 GB DDR4 3200 is starting at $200. If you consider that DDR4 3200 is the new sweet spot, that's a big jump, but not really a deal-breaker. It requires more price-conscious research, and a few compromises, but other components have decreased in price, such as monitors and storage drives. I'm confident that my $3000 2014 budget could still build a very fast PC in 2018, if I felt the need (which i don't - it's still plenty fast for what I need). If most of us keep our competent gaming rigs for a couple extra years, prices of everything will come down, as the greedy companies start panicking about loss of ongoing sales.
 
Joined
Mar 7, 2011
Messages
3,883 (0.81/day)
I bought 16 GB of DDR4 RAM in July 2016 for 56$, now it's 155$, so the balloon is flying high.
You must be joking, today 16GB(8*2) kit of ddr4 2400mhz it is around 180-200$ mark and its already up from dec pricing of the same kits.
 

bug

Joined
May 22, 2015
Messages
13,163 (4.07/day)
Processor Intel i5-12600k
Motherboard Asus H670 TUF
Cooling Arctic Freezer 34
Memory 2x16GB DDR4 3600 G.Skill Ripjaws V
Video Card(s) EVGA GTX 1060 SC
Storage 500GB Samsung 970 EVO, 500GB Samsung 850 EVO, 1TB Crucial MX300 and 2TB Crucial MX500
Display(s) Dell U3219Q + HP ZR24w
Case Raijintek Thetis
Audio Device(s) Audioquest Dragonfly Red :D
Power Supply Seasonic 620W M12
Mouse Logitech G502 Proteus Core
Keyboard G.Skill KM780R
Software Arch Linux + Win10
And a little more on-topic, I'm not seeing the news here. Looking at the posted chart, just last December there was an even bigger dip so investors already knew the prices don't go one way only.
 
Joined
Mar 14, 2014
Messages
1,274 (0.35/day)
Processor i7-4790K 4.6GHz @1.29v
Motherboard ASUS Maximus Hero VII Z97
Cooling Noctua NH-U14S
Memory G. Skill Trident X 2x8GB 2133MHz
Video Card(s) Asus Tuf RTX 3060 V1 FHR (Newegg Shuffle)
Storage OS 120GB Kingston V300, Samsung 850 Pro 512GB , 3TB Hitachi HDD, 2x5TB Toshiba X300, 500GB M.2 @ x2
Display(s) Lenovo y27g 1080p 144Hz
Case Fractal Design Define R4
Audio Device(s) AKG Q701's w/ O2+ODAC (Sounds a little bright)
Power Supply EVGA Supernova G2 850w
Mouse Glorious Model D
Keyboard Rosewill Full Size. Red Switches. Blue Leds. RK-9100xBRE - Hate this. way to big
Software Win10
Benchmark Scores 3DMark FireStrike Score : needs updating
And a little more on-topic, I'm not seeing the news here. Looking at the posted chart, just last December there was an even bigger dip so investors already knew the prices don't go one way only.
I could be interpreting this wrong but I think the news is that investors are crying over the fact that growth is only expected 30% instead of 60%. Or the fact prices fell a tiny bit which means for us, the consumer, that prices probably won't be back down to what they were 2 years ago if they are crying over the small price drop.
 

bug

Joined
May 22, 2015
Messages
13,163 (4.07/day)
Processor Intel i5-12600k
Motherboard Asus H670 TUF
Cooling Arctic Freezer 34
Memory 2x16GB DDR4 3600 G.Skill Ripjaws V
Video Card(s) EVGA GTX 1060 SC
Storage 500GB Samsung 970 EVO, 500GB Samsung 850 EVO, 1TB Crucial MX300 and 2TB Crucial MX500
Display(s) Dell U3219Q + HP ZR24w
Case Raijintek Thetis
Audio Device(s) Audioquest Dragonfly Red :D
Power Supply Seasonic 620W M12
Mouse Logitech G502 Proteus Core
Keyboard G.Skill KM780R
Software Arch Linux + Win10
I could be interpreting this wrong but I think the news is that investors are crying over the fact that growth is only expected 30% instead of 60%. Or the fact prices fell a tiny bit which means for us, the consumer, that prices probably won't be back down to what they were 2 years ago if they are crying over the small price drop.
Yes, but why adjust the prediction based on this particular dip, when there was a seemingly more significant one about a month ago?
 
Joined
Nov 25, 2012
Messages
246 (0.06/day)
Main Reason I wont be upgrading.

A few years aback 16GB was around $100 AU
Now its close to double that. Almost x3 the amount.

DDR3 is worth more second hand that it was new.
I bought 2 x kits of 8 x 2 for $80 each. Now I know I could get at least 150% of the initial price for them.

Graphics cards are also at long term highs.
GTX 660 are over $400 here more than there initial launch price.
I have price lists going back years the GTX X60 are after 18 months are normally High $2XX to low $3XX

The market is rigged.
What is it this time? Fire? not enough maturing capacity?
smart phones etc etc....
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2011
Messages
700 (0.15/day)
Location
Pensacola, FL, USA, Earth
I am quite happy I got my RAM last year just before the prices went looney tunes:

4x8GB DDR4-3200 G.SKILL on 3/31/2017: $221

Same exact kit now: $405

83% increase if my math holds close. :twitch:
 
Joined
Sep 15, 2015
Messages
1,019 (0.33/day)
Location
Latvija
System Name Fujitsu Siemens, HP Workstation
Processor Athlon x2 5000+ 3.1GHz, i5 2400
Motherboard Asus
Memory 4GB Samsung
Video Card(s) rx 460 4gb
Storage 750 Evo 250 +2tb
Display(s) Asus 1680x1050 4K HDR
Audio Device(s) Pioneer
Power Supply 430W
Mouse Acme
Keyboard Trust
Just keep using your old pc, windows is still not optimized.
Now new motherboard, cpu, ram can cost 500 €
 
Joined
Mar 18, 2015
Messages
2,960 (0.90/day)
Location
Long Island
Last edited:
Joined
Nov 29, 2017
Messages
12 (0.01/day)
GPU prices are even crazier thanks to mining.

A GTX 1080 ti is now $400 more than it was at launch. There also isn't much stock across the country in Canada for GTX 1060 6Gb and up. This is largely due to mining. I was thinking of making my own mining rig as it typically pays for itself in a few months to less than half a year.

I know I won't be upgrading till prices become reasonable again. Doesn't help that the Canadian dollar is hovering around 0.80 to the USD.

It already affected my ram purchasing plan. I wanted to get 32gb of DDR 4 3200 but went with 16gb.
 
Joined
Oct 19, 2007
Messages
8,185 (1.36/day)
Processor Intel i9 9900K @5GHz w/ Corsair H150i Pro CPU AiO w/Corsair HD120 RBG fan
Motherboard Asus Z390 Maximus XI Code
Cooling 6x120mm Corsair HD120 RBG fans
Memory Corsair Vengeance RBG 2x8GB 3600MHz
Video Card(s) Asus RTX 3080Ti STRIX OC
Storage Samsung 970 EVO Plus 500GB , 970 EVO 1TB, Samsung 850 EVO 1TB SSD, 10TB Synology DS1621+ RAID5
Display(s) Corsair Xeneon 32" 32UHD144 4K
Case Corsair 570x RBG Tempered Glass
Audio Device(s) Onboard / Corsair Virtuoso XT Wireless RGB
Power Supply Corsair HX850w Platinum Series
Mouse Logitech G604s
Keyboard Corsair K70 Rapidfire
Software Windows 11 x64 Professional
Benchmark Scores Firestrike - 23520 Heaven - 3670
Ram is one of the main reasons im holding off building a new pc, cannot swallow paying so much more now then a few years ago.
GPU stock/pricing isnt helping either.
 
Top