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TSMC 3 nm Wafer Pricing to Reach $20,000; Next-Gen CPUs/GPUs to be More Expensive

AleksandarK

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Semiconductor manufacturing is a significant investment that requires long lead times and constant improvement. According to the latest DigiTimes report, the pricing of a 3 nm wafer is expected to reach $20,000, which is a 25% increase in price over a 5 nm wafer. For 7 nm, TSMC managed to produce it for "just" $10,000; for 5 nm, it costs the company to make it for the $16,000 mark. And finally, the latest and greatest technology will get an even higher price point at $20,000, a new record in wafer pricing. Since TSMC has a proven track record of delivering constant innovation, clients are expected to remain on the latest tech purchasing spree.

Companies like Apple, AMD, and NVIDIA are known for securing orders for the latest semiconductor manufacturing node capacities. With a 25% increase in wafer pricing, we can expect the next-generation hardware to be even more expensive. Chip manufacturing price is a significant price-determining factor for many products, so the 3 nm edition of CPUs, GPUs, etc., will get the highest difference.



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These are launch prices and they look like estimates as the prices shown for 40 nm and 28 nm are much lower than what they actually cost at that time.
 

AleksandarK

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These are launch prices and they look like estimates as the prices shown for 40 nm and 28 nm are much lower than what they actually cost at that time.
Yeah, at the time these were more expensive but now are manufactured at super low prices. However, given the current climate, it seems like 7/5/3 nm prices will not change for a while.
 
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...or if Apple, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, etc. ALL COLLABORATE and tell TSMC, "go pound sand!" watch how TSMC go hide under their bed in fear!
 
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...or if Apple, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, etc. ALL COLLABORATE and tell TSMC, "go pound sand!" watch how TSMC go hide under their bed in fear!
This guy. Knows chip fabrication and it's troubles.

Nvidia can pound sand the others know who butters they're bread.
 
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This is probably the best time to build a complete PC from the ground up before prices get out of hand. All companies have released or about to release their greatest hits. Competition is at an all time high and the consumer is winning for the most part.

I understand waiting if you don’t have the budget but for anyone who has the disposable income now and need a new PC, now is the time.
 

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Well, at some point, the DIY PC culture will collapse. Constant price increases are not sustainable for 'non-essential' items.

Tech is meant to become cheaper as it evolves. Seems big corporations didn't get that memo.
 
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A 25% increase is actually pretty small. Here is that compared to other nodes provided on the chart in this article:

90nm to 40nm -> 30% price increase
40nm to 28nm -> 15% price increase
28nm to 10nm -> 100% price increase
10nm to 7nm -> 66.66% price increase

To say that such a modest price increase in the cost of wafers means GPU prices will increase belies the fact that we've had far more costly wafer price increases in the past yet GPU prices either did not increase or the price increase was very modest.

Using wafer pricing to justify increasingly high GPU costs is misleading because it's only a single factor in the cost of a GPU and ignores other factors, like how costs are spread across an increasingly large customer base.

It wasn't until Turing that GPU prices exploded and that was clearly motivated by greed and not node costs given Nvidia was using a much cheaper Samsung 8nm while AMD was selling their cards for less while using the more expensive TSMC 7nm.

We've seen price hikes of GPUs for several generations in a row now, the xx80 class GPU is now more than DOUBLE what it was with the 980.

If GPU prices do increase it's due to greed, plain and simple. Nvidia and AMD have already jacked GPU prices up enough to cover the next 20 years of wafer price increases.
 
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The price increase should be correlated to a transistor density increase that will allow for more dies on the same wafer, this just falls in line with why AMD can make a GPU that performs at 4080 levels for $500 less by using the advanced node on the parts that matter and older cheaper nodes on parts that require higher termination values (memory controllers, large caches) and I’m sure why Intel is doing OK with a larger node in their new chips.
 
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Well, at some point, the DIY PC culture will collapse. Constant price increases are not sustainable for 'non-essential' items.

Tech is meant to become cheaper as it evolves. Seems big corporations didn't get that memo.

Nah, just the "PC Master Race" culture will collapse, which is probably a good thing.

PCs are tools. DIY PCs are other tools, be it a NAS, a server, a rendering box, or what have you. Lawnmowers aren't really improving that much, but there are plenty of DIY lawncare people around the USA. If your "gaming box" doesn't need a $5000 GPU, then its probably a good thing to stick with $500 GPUs or cheaper.

The concept of "keeping up with the Joneses" is pretty toxic in general IMO. Its one thing if you want better raytracing performance because you wanna see what it looks like. But its another thing to be buying $1500 GPUs just because they exist.
 
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Hmmm. So from 7nm to 3nm

7x7 = 49
3x3 =9
So about 5x smaller area.

so hypothetically say if a Radeon 6600 is made on 7nm wafer yields X amount of chips. And assuming 3nm node has same quality should get 4x the chips???
If the 3nm wafer cost is 4x of 7nm wafer then the cost be chip should pretty much be the same??
 
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Hmmm. So from 7nm to 3nm

7x7 = 49
3x3 =9
So about 5x smaller area.

so hypothetically say if a Radeon 6600 is made on 7nm wafer yields X amount of chips. And assuming 3nm node has same quality should get 4x the chips???
If the 3nm wafer cost is 4x of 7nm wafer then the cost be chip should pretty much be the same??
It doesn't work like that. The names are just marketing names. Logic scaling will be about 1/(0.55*0.58) or 3.13 times smaller. SRAM scaling is only 1.2x over N5 which means 1.56 times over N7. Moreover, these are estimated launch prices, and are lower by the time non fruit companies get to these nodes.
 

ir_cow

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Don't forget these yields aren't 100%. More like 20% for the 3nm.
 
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Used market FTW. This will be a great thing for the environment. Who cares about their overpriced, fragile new garbage when you can buy excellent hardware for peanuts used.
 
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5nm costs around $17k.
The density gain from 5nm to 3nm was 60% or more, costing only 17-18% more, so this doesn't necessarily indicate more expensive GPUs and CPUs. There's a lot of room to explore in new designs, of course, you still need to put yield into the equation, that's the factor that can send prices skyrocketing.

Anyway, the cost benefit is better than the transition from 7/6nm to 5nm.

precio-oblea-tsmc-5nm.jpg
 
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5nm costs around $17k.
The density gain from 5nm to 3nm was 60% or more, costing only 17-18% more, so this doesn't necessarily indicate more expensive GPUs and CPUs. There's a lot of room to explore in new designs, of course, you still need to put yield into the equation, that's the factor that can send prices skyrocketing.

Anyway, the cost benefit is better than the transition from 7/6nm to 5nm.

View attachment 271429

The good thing with yield is that 5nm yield is actually better right now than 7nm. TSMC has done a really good job with these new nodes in regards to defect density. Not sure about 3nm though.
 
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Nah, just the "PC Master Race" culture will collapse, which is probably a good thing.

PCs are tools. DIY PCs are other tools, be it a NAS, a server, a rendering box, or what have you. Lawnmowers aren't really improving that much, but there are plenty of DIY lawncare people around the USA. If your "gaming box" doesn't need a $5000 GPU, then its probably a good thing to stick with $500 GPUs or cheaper.

The concept of "keeping up with the Joneses" is pretty toxic in general IMO. Its one thing if you want better raytracing performance because you wanna see what it looks like. But its another thing to be buying $1500 GPUs just because they exist.
Agree 100%. DIY is a lot more than building a new expensive gaming PC from brand new components. You can also DIY with low end and/or used components. DIY is not only about gaming either as you already alluded to. I would like to think that modding my used ProBook 645 G1 also qualifies as DIY, perhaps not as DIY as building a new desktop with custom water cooling "from the ground up" but then again DIY was always a spectrum. For me, a big part of DIY is software, customizing my Linux installation, while I bet 99% of the "PC Master Race" types just do a bog standard Windows install. My software setup is what really makes a computer feel like "mine" for me. I don't think that my 645 G1 would even be very usable with a standard Windows 10 install + Google Chrome etc. I would like to see more attention paid to the quality of software that is used because bloatware has become way too normalized.
 
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It's worth remembering that GAA transistors, EUV and it's pelicles and the actual wafer's are all costing the foundrie massively and that's without the massive RND budget required to be this good, no country can equal Tsmc that's right no country despite one absolutely trying and with more money.

Chiplets are The way.

Also with performance where it's at the days of big expensive GPU's might be over.
Well see how the likes of Nvidia and apple with it's M3 deal with that, we know AMD and Intel have plan's.
 
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These companies can keep running the costs up all they want. It's not going to affect me a bit. I'm happy to be patient and wait for 2nd or even 3rd hand gear as needed. I will not pay more than I feel an item is worth.
 
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Couldn't care less about predictions of price increases for the next few yrs & beyond. Computers are horses for courses, so to speak. Until I come across a game that I actually want to play & my current system is cpu or gpu bound, then I will cross that bridge at the time. Being a one monitor kind of gamer, that bridge will be a substantial time off! :D
 
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