TSMC Executive Sees Chip Industry Recovery in Three Years

malware · Feb 23, 2009

Morris Chang, chairman of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), said on Friday what his predictions were for the global semiconductor industry and when it will recover from the global economic crysis that's upon everything at the moment.

I think it will be 2012 before the total revenue of the semiconductor industry gets back to the '08 level

he said. Knowing that he has more than 50 years experience in this circle, and he's the founder of the world's largest contract chip manufacturer TSMC, we can trust his words. Mr. Chang also added that the semiconductor industry was "pretty close" to the bottom. That's really how bad the chip makers are doing at present.

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FordGT90Concept · Feb 23, 2009

It could be longer. I hate to be a pessimist but I wouldn't be surprised if this lasts 5-10 years. The fear that is perpetrating the markets has not gone away. That's why the international stock markets are still generally heading down. Until the attitude changes, the slump isn't going away.

lemonadesoda · Feb 23, 2009

TSMC Executive Sees Chip Industry Recovery in Three Years

I read it differently. He sees that the next 3 years are going to be BAD TIMES (in terms on revenue) across the industry. And this is a minimum. There isnt going to be some magic recovery next year or in 2011. That's the key point. And that there are going to be winners and losers. Some companies will fall. Others will come and be strong (building on a different economic paradigm).

He's not predicting industry recovery within three years.

Mr. Chang said the industry, which has been hard hit by the global economic slowdown, was "pretty close" to the bottom

Note that he is also stating is HASNT hit bottom yet. He is expecting further consolidation.

I think he is right. While we "enthusiasts" will keep spending, corporate budgets will be held closed for a while. No discretionary spend. Productivity systems are broadly in place. Upgrade lifecycle can be extended over a longer period.

eidairaman1 · Feb 23, 2009

Ive been out of the loop for so long that i'm not considered a enthusiast anymore.

lemonadesoda · Feb 23, 2009

ROFL!

I see what you mean... LOL. Nice museum piece.

Don't panic... you arent too far behind my legacy system.

FordGT90Concept · Feb 23, 2009

@lemonadesoda: Ah, yes. I was taking it like he thought the memory industry would rebound by 2012. That just isn't going to happen. Hopefully it won't get much worse by 2012 but it for sure isn't going to get much better. Markets crash fast and recover slow.

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TSMC Executive Sees Chip Industry Recovery in Three Years

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