• Welcome to TechPowerUp Forums, Guest! Please check out our forum guidelines for info related to our community.

TSMC Trembles Under 7 nm Product Orders, Increases Delivery Lead Times Threefold - Could Hit AMD Product Availability

Raevenlord

News Editor
Staff member
Joined
Aug 12, 2016
Messages
2,864 (2.28/day)
Location
Portugal
System Name The Ryzening
Processor Ryzen 7 1700 @ 3.7 GHz
Motherboard MSI X370 Gaming Pro Carbon
Cooling Arctic Cooling Liquid Freezer 120
Memory 16 GB G.Skill Trident Z F4-3200 (2x 8 GB)
Video Card(s) TPU's Awesome MSI GTX 1070 Gaming X
Storage Boot: Crucial MX100 128GB; Gaming: Crucial MX 300 525GB; Storage: Samsung 1TB HDD, Toshiba 2TB HDD
Display(s) LG 29UM68P (21:9 2560x1080 FreeSync Ultrawide)
Case NOX Hummer MC Black
Audio Device(s) ASUS Xonar DX
Power Supply Seasonic M12II Evo 620W 80+
Mouse Cooler Master Masterkeys Lite L
Keyboard Cooler Master Masterkeys Lite L
Software Windows 10 x64
TSMC is on the vanguard of chipset fabrication technology at this exact point in time - its 7 nm technology is the leading-edge of all large volume processes, and is being tapped by a number of companies for 7 nm silicon. One of its most relevant clients for our purposes, of course, is AMD - the company now enjoys a fabrication process lead over arch-rival Intel much due to its strategy of fabrication spin-off and becoming a fabless designer of chips. AMD's current product stack has made waves in the market by taking advantage of 7 nm's benefits, but it seems this may actually become a slight problem in the not so distant future.

TSMC has announced a threefold increase in its delivery lead times for 7 nm orders, from two months to nearly six months, which means that orders will now have to wait three times longer to be fulfilled than they once did. This means that current channel supplies and orders made after the decision from TSMC will take longer to materialize in actual silicon, which may lead to availability slumps should demand increase or maintain. AMD has its entire modern product stack built under the 7 nm process, so this could potentially affect both CPUs and GPUs from the company - and let's not forget AMD's Zen 3 and next-gen RDNA GPUs which are all being designed for the 7 nm+ process node. TSMC is expected to set aside further budget to expand capacity of its most advanced nodes, whilst accelerating investment on their N7+, N6, N5, and N3 nodes.



View at TechPowerUp Main Site
 
Joined
Mar 13, 2012
Messages
151 (0.05/day)
That is why AMD is getting all cosy with Samsung. They probably already knew this long time ago and made plans to minimize the impact.

Samsung will use RDNA in their mobile cpu's and AMD will get priority to use their factory's. It's a win, win, win and win for all except for those not involved.
 
Last edited:
Joined
Aug 21, 2013
Messages
464 (0.20/day)
Looking at absymal 3900X availability im not suprised. Good luck getting 3950X this year. That in on itself would be like winning a lottery, but be prepared for inflated prices and weeks of wait time before delivery.
 
Joined
Jun 28, 2016
Messages
3,059 (2.35/day)
That is why AMD is getting all cosy with Samsung. They probably already knew this long time ago and made plans to minimize the impact.
Everyone should knew this long time ago. Even some on this forum have been saying this will happen.
7nm supply is scarce and AMD is not the highest bidder.
Samsung will use RDNA in their mobile cpu's and AMD will get priority to use their factory's. It's a win, win, win and win for all except for those not involved.
It's a different process and they'd have to redesign their chips.
Also, it seems you don't understand the Samsung-AMD deal very much. AMD is selling RDNA to Samsung. And they need the money. There's no reason why Samsung would "give" them something in return (other than the license fee, obviously).

As for Samsung 7nm: we know other big players are interested (most importantly: Nvidia), so if AMD hasn't contracted anything earlier, it might be too late.
 
Joined
Nov 13, 2007
Messages
7,724 (1.74/day)
Location
Austin Texas
System Name _
Processor 8700K @ 5.1 Ghz
Motherboard MSI Z370-A PRO
Cooling 120mm Custom Liquid
Memory 32 GB 3600 Mhz DDR4 16-16-16-36-380 trfc - 2T
Video Card(s) Gigabyte GTX 2080 Ti Windforce (Undervolted OC 1905MHz)
Storage 3x1TB SSDs
Display(s) Alienware 34" 3440x1440 120hz, G-Sync
Case Jonsbo U4
Audio Device(s) Bose Solo
Power Supply Corsair SF750
Mouse silent click gaming mouse
Keyboard tenkeyless
Software Windows 10 64 Bit
Looking at absymal 3900X availability im not suprised. Good luck getting 3950X this year. That in on itself would be like winning a lottery, but be prepared for inflated prices and weeks of wait time before delivery.
What is interesting is the absolute SEA of 3600 and 3600x's so I think they just underestimated demand on it.
 
Joined
Aug 21, 2013
Messages
464 (0.20/day)
What is interesting is the absolute SEA of 3600 and 3600x's so I think they just underestimated demand on it.
True but i think 3900X has much better binned chiplets and that is why it's so scarce. Either that or they have some sort of manufacturing limit on how many CPU's they can make with dual chiplets but i doubt that.
 
Joined
Mar 18, 2008
Messages
4,775 (1.10/day)
System Name Virtual Reality / Bioinformatics
Processor Undead CPU
Motherboard Undead TUF X99
Cooling Noctua NH-D15
Memory GSkill 128GB DDR4-3000
Video Card(s) EVGA 2080Ti
Storage Samsung 960 Pro 1TB + 860 EVO 2TB + WD Black 5TB
Display(s) Acer K272HUL, HTC Vive
Case Fractal Design R5
Audio Device(s) BOSE 2.0
Power Supply Seasonic 850watt
Mouse Logitech Master MX
Keyboard Corsair K70 Cherry MX Blue
Software Windows 10 Professional/Linux Mint
EPYC definitely has 1st priority. Hmm i guess i probably won’t get to switch to Threadripper Gen 3 until next year.
 
Joined
Jan 3, 2015
Messages
1,499 (0.81/day)
System Name Suffering from random access memory loss.
Processor Intel Core i7 980X @ 4.42 GHz (when becnching op to 4.77 GHz)
Motherboard ASUS P6X58D Premium
Cooling Noctua NH-D14 CPU cooler with 3 x noctua nf-f12 industrialppc-3000 pwm 120 MM fans
Memory 12 GB DDR3 CORSAIR 1600 MHz TIMMINGS 9-9-9-24
Video Card(s) EVGA GeForce GTX 1080 Ti SC2 GAMING
Storage 2 x Samsung 950 PRO 256 GB M.2 NVME SSD, Crucial MX300 2 TB SSD, WD RED 4 TB + WD AV-GP 2 TB HDD.
Display(s) 24" SAMSUNG
Case ANTEC TWELVE HUNDRED
Audio Device(s) ONBOARD realtek sound card.
Power Supply THERMALTAKE TOUGHPOWER 1500 WATT
Mouse Logitech G903 Lightspeed Wireless Gaming Mouse
Keyboard LOGITECH G19s
Software WINDOWS 10 PRO 64 BITS
Benchmark Scores https://www.3dmark.com/fs/13514527 https://www.3dmark.com/spy/2333033
No no noooooooooooooooo, this is the last thing i need to read after comming home tired from work :banghead:

So much for an 2019 upgrade to ryzen 9 3950X. Guess i will have to ask my old X58 system to hold out longer yet again.
 
Last edited:
Joined
Jun 2, 2017
Messages
1,816 (1.89/day)
System Name Best AMD Computer
Processor AMD TR4 1920X
Motherboard MSI X399 SLI Plus
Cooling Alphacool Eisbaer 420 x2 Noctua NHU-14S TR4
Memory Gskill RIpjaws 4 3000MHZ 48GB
Video Card(s) Sapphire Vega 64 Nitro, Gigabyte Vega 64 Gaming OC
Storage 6 x NVME 480 GB, 2 x SSD 2TB, 5TB HDD, 2 TB HDD, 2x 2TB SSHD
Display(s) Acer 49BQ0k 4K monitor
Case Thermaltake Core X9
Audio Device(s) Corsair Void Pro, Logitch Z523 5.1
Power Supply Corsair HX1200!
Mouse Logitech g7 gaming mouse
Keyboard Logitech G510
Software Windows 10 Pro 64 Steam. GOG, Uplay, Origin
Benchmark Scores Firestrike: 24955 Time Spy: 13500
I am wondering if AMD has used most of the 7nm wafers that have already been produced by TSMC. After all we have 6, 7nm CPUs for AM4 and now there are AIB GPUs based on Navi. The 3950X is just about ready, for me there is also the thought process that TR3 is almost ready for release and may have chewed up what was left as core counts could be as high as 24 for the lowest TR3 CPU.
 
Joined
Nov 11, 2004
Messages
4,713 (0.85/day)
Location
Formosa
System Name Overlord Mk MXVI
Processor AMD Ryzen 7 3800X
Motherboard Gigabyte X570 Aorus Master
Cooling Corsair H115i Pro
Memory 32GB Viper Steel 3600 DDR4 @ 3800MHz 16-19-16-19-36
Video Card(s) Gigabyte RTX 2080 Gaming OC 8G
Storage 1TB WD Black NVMe (2018), 2TB Viper VPN100, 1TB WD Blue 3D NAND
Display(s) Asus PG27AQ
Case Corsair Carbide 275Q
Audio Device(s) Corsair Virtuoso SE
Power Supply Corsair RM750
Mouse Logitech G500s
Keyboard Wooting Two
Software Windows 10 Pro
Benchmark Scores https://valid.x86.fr/ztiub6
Keep in mind that companies that AMD, Nvidia and so on, usually have wafer supply contacts in place, which means that the fab has already agreed to a certain amount of wafers per month. The change is likely to only affect new orders, so no need for panic.
 
Joined
Oct 25, 2018
Messages
264 (0.59/day)
Or, maybe they have started production on 3000's series refresh? Not a bad idea, keep the ball rolling, stay in the limelight keep the peoples interest
so that money keeps rolling in.....
 
Joined
Aug 21, 2013
Messages
464 (0.20/day)
I am wondering if AMD has used most of the 7nm wafers that have already been produced by TSMC. After all we have 6, 7nm CPUs for AM4 and now there are AIB GPUs based on Navi. The 3950X is just about ready, for me there is also the thought process that TR3 is almost ready for release and may have chewed up what was left as core counts could be as high as 24 for the lowest TR3 CPU.
TR3 starts at 16 cores.
 
Joined
Dec 14, 2013
Messages
1,315 (0.59/day)
Location
Alabama
Processor Ryzen 2700X
Motherboard X470 Tachi Ultimate
Cooling Scythe Big Shuriken 3
Memory C.R.S.
Video Card(s) Radeon VII
Software Win 7
Benchmark Scores Never high enough
Made reference myself earlier to the reason(s) why 3900 series chips are hard to come by.
This is going to impact the supply but not right away.

Contracts have already been made related to the suppy of chips for production and will have to be honored. Once said contracts expire it's all up in the air to negotiate what they would get and for how much per chip/chiplet.
Sad thing is out of the chips received not too many of the perfect ones needed for the 3900/3950X will go towards these, the majority will be destined for Epyc chip production since they require perfect chips to even be made into an Epyc chip.

AMD knows they'll have to make a few chips for the 3900/3950's since they are already in production or have been announced as part of the product lineup but..... How many?
Depends at least in part on the yields from the foundry in which they are made - AMD has no control over that and must make do with what they get based on production needs at the time when received.
 
Joined
Jun 2, 2017
Messages
1,816 (1.89/day)
System Name Best AMD Computer
Processor AMD TR4 1920X
Motherboard MSI X399 SLI Plus
Cooling Alphacool Eisbaer 420 x2 Noctua NHU-14S TR4
Memory Gskill RIpjaws 4 3000MHZ 48GB
Video Card(s) Sapphire Vega 64 Nitro, Gigabyte Vega 64 Gaming OC
Storage 6 x NVME 480 GB, 2 x SSD 2TB, 5TB HDD, 2 TB HDD, 2x 2TB SSHD
Display(s) Acer 49BQ0k 4K monitor
Case Thermaltake Core X9
Audio Device(s) Corsair Void Pro, Logitch Z523 5.1
Power Supply Corsair HX1200!
Mouse Logitech g7 gaming mouse
Keyboard Logitech G510
Software Windows 10 Pro 64 Steam. GOG, Uplay, Origin
Benchmark Scores Firestrike: 24955 Time Spy: 13500
TR3 starts at 16 cores.
Interesting indeed I wonder how much they will cost as the 3900X is over $700 in Canada already. I expect the 3950X to be $1000 but where will pricing start for TR3? At the very least it should further drop the price of the 2920X (the one I want) to perhaps the 1920X range now ($300-400) in Canada.
 
Joined
Jun 28, 2015
Messages
841 (0.50/day)
Keep in mind that companies that AMD, Nvidia and so on, usually have wafer supply contacts in place, which means that the fab has already agreed to a certain amount of wafers per month. The change is likely to only affect new orders, so no need for panic.
Indeed, this would otherwise have likely crashed AMD's, and other companies', stock prices. It would've been very serious to their bottom line. Sounds like TSMC is running at full capacity for 7nm.
 
Joined
Mar 13, 2014
Messages
4,394 (2.06/day)
Processor i7 7700k
Motherboard MSI Z270 SLI Plus
Cooling CM Hyper 212 EVO
Memory 2 x 8 GB Corsair Vengeance
Video Card(s) MSI GTX 980 Ti GAMING
Storage Samsung 850 EVO 250 GB and WD Black 4TB
Display(s) ASUS 27 inch 1440p PLS PB278Q
Case Corsair Obsidian 750D Airflow Edition
Audio Device(s) Onboard
Power Supply EVGA SuperNova 850 W Gold
Mouse Logitech G502
Keyboard Logitech G105
Software Windows 10
I wonder if yield issues are also a factor with the lower process 7nm node?
 
Joined
Aug 19, 2017
Messages
280 (0.32/day)
I wonder if yield issues are also a factor with the lower process 7nm node?
TSMC's first-generation 7nm is having great yield. Don't know about N7+ but I would expect that to be a slight tweak for better frequency, so no problems with yielding.

What might be the reason for the delay is the fact that there are a huge number of companies currently trying to utilize N7/N7+ node for their products and TSMC's pipeline is very very busy.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 64K
Joined
Jun 28, 2018
Messages
245 (0.43/day)
Apple and Huawei occupy almost 90% of 7nm capacity. The rest only have the leftovers.

So, with AMD having a minimal volume at TSMC, it is perfectly possible that in the event of a shortage, they will suffer more and faster than large customers.
 
Joined
Sep 2, 2014
Messages
447 (0.23/day)
Location
Scotland
Processor 1800x
Motherboard ax370 - k5
Cooling full - custom liquid loop
Memory 16gb
Video Card(s) vega 64
Storage nvme evo970 1TB + ssd 750gb
Display(s) c32hg70
Case h630 - modificated
Power Supply 750W - gold
Software 10 - 64bit
your numbers make non sense, please dont post crap like this here, thank you

Apple and Huawei occupy almost 90% of 7nm capacity. The rest only have the leftovers.

So, with AMD having a minimal volume at TSMC, it is perfectly possible that in the event of a shortage, they will suffer more and faster than large customers.
 
Joined
Feb 3, 2017
Messages
1,963 (1.82/day)
Processor i5-8400
Motherboard ASUS ROG STRIX Z370-I GAMING
Cooling Alpenföhn Black Ridge
Memory 2*16GB DDR4-3200 CL16
Video Card(s) Gainward GeForce RTX 2080 Phoenix
Storage 1TB Samsung 970 Pro, 2TB Intel 660p
Display(s) ASUS PG279Q, Eizo EV2736W
Case Dan Cases A4-SFX
Power Supply Corsair SF600
Mouse Logitech G700
Keyboard Corsair K60
Joined
Jun 28, 2018
Messages
245 (0.43/day)
Unless the landscape took a 180° turn (which hardly happened), Apple remains the largest customer by far, followed by Huawei (HiSilicon).

If there is a shortage problem, it is almost certain that TSMC will give more priority to Apple than any other. Especially at this point, with the new iPhones in full swing.
 
Joined
Jun 12, 2017
Messages
79 (0.08/day)
System Name Linotosh
Processor Dual 800mhz G4
Cooling Air
Memory 1.5 GB
This could be a good thing for Samsung too. If they are far enough out, designers currently starting development of a new chip may decide to contract with Samsung and use their process instead if they have available capacity.
 
Last edited:
Joined
Jun 10, 2014
Messages
1,866 (0.91/day)
Looking at absymal 3900X availability im not suprised. Good luck getting 3950X this year.
True but i think 3900X has much better binned chiplets and that is why it's so scarce.
Yes, 3900X and upcoming 3950X uses higher bins of chips, and the availability of these will be limited by the total production volume, which is why some models are in plenty of stock while others are not. There is little AMD can do with this in the short term. But we have to remember that the demand for 3900X/3950X is "artificially high" right now due to the Zen 2 hype, with many fans buying chips they don't "need", but this "problem" will sort itself out over time. But this short supply for higher models is what we expected, and will also be a challenge for Threadripper models.

Apple and Huawei occupy almost 90% of 7nm capacity. The rest only have the leftovers.

So, with AMD having a minimal volume at TSMC, it is perfectly possible that in the event of a shortage, they will suffer more and faster than large customers.
While what you're saying in terms of production volume is true, your conclusion is incorrect.
Firstly, as some have mentioned, customers including AMD, Nvidia, etc. have wafer supply agreements. Secondly, high power chips like desktop CPUs and GPUs are not made on the same version of the node as IPhone chips, so it will be only companies like Nvidia and others who make large high power chips who will be "competing" for the same production capacity as AMD. So unless the specific production lines AMD use are directly impacted by production problems, AMD's production should be unaffected by 7nm demand in general, as this only affects new orders.

So this whole matter is another case of the media failing to understand the ramifications of production news.
 

Nkd

Joined
Sep 15, 2007
Messages
294 (0.07/day)
Everyone should knew this long time ago. Even some on this forum have been saying this will happen.
7nm supply is scarce and AMD is not the highest bidder.

It's a different process and they'd have to redesign their chips.
Also, it seems you don't understand the Samsung-AMD deal very much. AMD is selling RDNA to Samsung. And they need the money. There's no reason why Samsung would "give" them something in return (other than the license fee, obviously).

As for Samsung 7nm: we know other big players are interested (most importantly: Nvidia), so if AMD hasn't contracted anything earlier, it might be too late.
You are assuming a mountain here. Its not to hard to get a fab contract. and AMD is not going to tell us how long they have been working with samsung. You will know it when it happens. So to assume Nvidia is going to be the only player with samsung is nonsense. Samsung wants more business and AMD will be right there.

Second assumption: Amd is not the highest bidder? what does that have to do with anything? You don't have to be the highest bidder to get product out. AMD has been in bed with TSMC in 7nm and the only company making the bigger chips. You really think all those EPYC chips are not going to be at play? How do you know its not the demand from AMD at play here as well? From what I can tell zen 2 and navi seems to be selling out as soon as they hit shelves.
 
Top