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Why did we abandon hydrogen cars so quickly?

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Range is a good point, but electric still wins on efficiency.

One solution to electric range is a standardized battery that one swaps out at the station.
No. Soon to be revealed cell technologies will make charging more faster & more reliable.

Not to mention what new technologies are planned to be released by 2025 alone.

Sorry, can't reveal more...just keep a track of what Rimac Technology delivers soon!
 
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Yes, the electric grid will need supplementing, but I don't see how this is an issue.
 
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Yes, the electric grid will need supplementing, but I don't see how this is an issue.

Will $100 million of electric charging stations be more useful to society? Or will $100 million of H2 stations be more useful?

H2 stations will fill up / deliver more hydrogen to more cars in a shorter period of time, with probably far lower costs per H2 station.
 
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The stations are only part of the overall cost.
 
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When you consider that the battery pack of a Tesla costs well over $10,000 (https://www.thedrive.com/tech/38915/it-costs-nearly-16000-to-replace-a-tesla-model-3-battery-pack), it makes sense that battery swaps don't work.

Battery swaps might work if you own a fleet. Like rental cars for example, swapping batteries among your own cars is maybe a decent idea. Except at the $16,000+ price point to replace batteries (they're literally the most expensive part of an electric car), it makes more sense to just buy spare cars rather than spare batteries.
A new Model S battery is $12,000+ from Tesla but thats today's prices, as battery tech scales and improves its only going to get cheaper, most likely significantly so. If you compare the cost of replacement V8 or twin turbo V6 from similarly priced high performance ICE vehicle you are probably well over $8,000 and thats never going to get any cheaper.

The battery pack literally weighs a ton and costs over $10,000. The battery pack is not only the most expensive piece of equipment in an electric car, it is also the heaviest. In the case of Tesla (the car company I talked about before), the battery pack is literally wielded to the floor.

You can't move that thing, not by the current design. Its wielded there as a safety issue (low center of gravity to prevent the car from tipping over).

Not only that, the battery pack is highly explosive ( ). The battery packs need heavy shields to make sure that rocks and/or dirt that kick up under it won't light the whole thing on fire. Even then, those shields can be penetrated at high speeds if you jump the curb like this video demonstrates.

I'm not seeing exactly how a battery swap is feasible, not by any current EV's design. Especially when you consider the low-center of gravity people want to have (so you want to place those packs under the floor), but still have safety issues (you don't want the car to bottom out and light on fire as it strikes something, like that video from r/IdiotsInCars).

So you have a 1-ton, $10,000+ object that's explosive and requires shielding that you want to swap around with strangers. Along with all the other car things to figure out (center of gravity, suspension, balance, weight, etc. etc.). Cool. Good luck figuring out the tools and equipment to actually accomplish that task.

To be fair, I don't lift engines, but moving car-parts that weigh 1-ton around just won't happen in 5 minutes, or 30-minutes if you take the precautions necessary. No mechanic will do an engine lift job in 30 minutes, and engines are lighter than these battery packs. Its pretty dangerous, not only to the person but also to the car to move such weights around.

Battery swap is one of those things where it sounds like it might work. But the minute you think about the mechanics of the swap (cost, economics, tool design, safety, etc. etc.) it makes no sense at all.
The battery is not welded to the floor, its removable and serviceable.

The battery is in the floor because thats the most logical place to put it in the absence of a driveshaft and exhaust systems. The battery pack is also used as a structural member of the vehicle (in the smart designs anyway) since its mass necessitates a large and heavy frame. Putting the battery in at the lowest point possible does have performance advantages but it has nothing to do with preventing the car from "tipping over".

Lithium-ion is volatile but the battery is very heavily protected. Can it be comprised?, sure people's ability to do stupid shit has no bounds particularly in a car that can run sub 11s, so yeah if your an idiot the consequences can be very bad but you have do a lot of damage to vehicle to get to the battery, its not "highly explosive" or at least no more than a GT3 and tank full of 93.

The feasibility of battery swapping is pretty much a moot point, nobody is asking for it. Mid-range EVs today get 15-250 miles; thats more than enough for your average commute, if you drive more than that daily I feel bad for you but there are EVs that go 300, nobody is commuting daily 300 miles. For anything thats going to exceed 300+ super charging works if you don't run the battery down to sub 10% and take the battery to 50-80%, so you might be stopping twice to keep the battery in the sweet spot and it might add and hour to your road trip, but is that the end of the world?

Chemical energy, be it methane, hydrogen, or gasoline, is in fact the best. High-power, high-energy, very simple machines sourced from cheap iron/steel rather than expensive (and environmentally damaging) Lithium or Cobalt and copper (copper isn't environmentally damaging, but its still a lot more expensive than steel). Li-ion simply has too much weight, too much environmental costs, too little energy density.
Its the best in density but thats it; in terms of powering a drivetrain with they are the worst in terms of performance, efficiency, and reliability by far. And its at the end of line technologically really for ICE, the engines are insanely complex compared to EVs, with orders of magnitude more moving parts, its not even close. ICE engines have had a 100+ years of countless man hours worth of engineering to get them to the point they are at, we're just at the start of modern battery tech and EV design comparatively. Any progress from here is going to be marginal at best for ICE and complexity and cost has been scaling inversely for a long time now.
 
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A new Model S battery is $12,000+ from Tesla but thats today's prices, as battery tech scales and improves its only going to get cheaper, most likely significantly so.

I'll believe it when I see it. Prices are going in the opposite direction: the base model Y now costs $58,900 for example.

1637626555535.png



Prices have been going up. Not just a little bit, but by a lot. These big battery packs need those SiC MOSFETs, you know, those "semiconductors" that are currently in shortage everywhere around the world.

Battery / electric powers won't route themselves. You need a semiconductor to move energy around. The Li-Ion savings of the past few years have been wiped away by increasing silicon costs. Our iron / steel supply chains are simply more reliable than our high-tech / chip making supply chains.

Lithium-ion is volatile but the battery is very heavily protected. Can it be comprised?, sure people's ability to do stupid shit has no bounds particularly in a car that can run sub 11s, so yeah if your an idiot the consequences can be very bad but. You have do a lot of damage to vehicle to get to the battery, its not "highly explosive" or at least no more than a GT3 and tank full of 93.

Watch the video again.

https://www.reddit.com/r/IdiotsInCars/comments/ppqqwg
I haven't seen a car this explosive since the Ford Pinto. That Model X exploded and caught on fire before the thing even stopped moving (!!!). This is the kind of unrealistic explosion you'll find in Michael Bay movies, the kind where they plant bombs inside of cars so that they get a more exciting film. Cars don't normally explode like that when they hop a curb.

Even better that this thing is in clear color video. You can see the signature red-lithium flames (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flame_test) of elemental Lithium in that explosion. Gasoline doesn't have that kind of color (you can see the typical "yellow gasoline" fire start up when the gas pump erupts after the Lithium car makes contact with it).

Its the best in density but thats it; in terms of powering a drivetrain with they are the worst in terms of performance, efficiency, and reliability by far.

Tesla is ranked 2nd worst in the market for reliability this year by Consumer Reports.

I'm not convinced that electric is any more reliable than a hunk of iron and steel. Not only that, but the Li-Ion battery packs in general have had large issues across the board.



Even at the phone-level making tiny batteries, we have had some fire issues in the past couple of years.


At some point, it becomes evident that the entire Li-Ion battery marketplace is less reliable than people think. It doesn't matter if you're Tesla, Chevy, Hyundai, or Samsung, the chemistry seems prone to these fires and explosions.
 
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I am told that when these batteries need replacing it is not so much due to reduced capacity as built-up internal resistance that makes high power no longer practical; as a result they may find use in homes to backup solar power where power demands are reduced.
 
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I am told that when these batteries need replacing it is not so much due to reduced capacity as built-up internal resistance that makes high power no longer practical; as a result they may find use in homes to backup solar power where power demands are reduced.

Meanwhile in the real world...


Hi, I have read about people losing range over time in their model 3s. In most cases its about 10-20 miles. For me the story is a bit different, right now at 100% charge I get about 267 miles. That's over 40 miles that I have lost. It has been happening slowly over time, I have had the car for about 6 months, and almost every week the range reading at 90% dropps with 1 or 2 miles. So it seems that it is steadly going down, but sadly it doesn't stop. I have contacted Tesla and been to the Sc several times and they keep telling me every single time that it's because of driving style and that the range reading adapts to my driving, this is not true as you probably know.

I have tried several times 100%-0%-100%, nothing helps. Tesla did actually do a diagnostics but found nothing, and they do not wanna help me anymore because they don't see this as a problem. Anyone experience THIS much range loss?

I have a LR AWD

A new Model S battery is $12,000+ from Tesla but thats today's prices


And by $12,000, you mean $22,000, right?

I got my Model S VIN 1751 off the line back in 2012 and have had it ever since. On Feb 14th during the day, I pulled it out of the garage with 114 miles showing on the battery. I woke up in the morning with some battery low errors. When I got into the car, it told me that the car wouldn't drive because it needed service, the 12V battery was low voltage and the HV battery was at 0 miles. After calling Tesla Roadside Assistance, they connected to the car and said that it had to be towed to a service center. I was able to get it towed to the closes Tesla service center and now they the tell me my warranty for the drivetrain expired on 1/9/21 (one month earlier) and the HV battery has to be replace for $22k. If my battery was 8 years old, I would be ok with that. I assumed a level of risk having a car for this long and I expected that the battery would go bad at some point. It's just a shame that it died a month after the warranty expired. The kicker for me is that I had a faulty backflow prevention valve in my HV battery 1.5 years ago and had the battery replaced under warranty. Now service is telling me that if I buy a new battery for $22k I get a 4 year/50k mile warranty on the new battery, but the battery they replaced 1.5 years ago only had a one year warranty for parts. I feel I had to somewhat document this to people as I am one of the first roughly 2k-2.5k cars that are out of warranty at this point and I seem to be one of the first to at least document out of warranty replacement options on this site (at least as my search abilities go). So be careful when that warranty expires. You are on your own. Tesla isn't budging on helping my 1.5 year old bad battery and now essentially bricked car. From what I can tell, the car is worth somewhere between $18k-25k working. I'm not sure yet if I'm going forward with the battery replacement to sell it or not.

Like, people actually post these stories on forums across the internet these days. It seems like the going price of battery replacement on Model S is $22,000, at least in Feb, 2021 (just 9 months ago, so probably still accurate to today's prices). This is an especially bad story because this is the 3rd battery pack of this particular poster... his battery is only 1.5 years old and suddenly came across an issue.

With regards to price: these battery packs aren't made out of pure elemental lithium + cobalt. They're also made with legions of SiC MOSFETs and other computer chips. We're in the middle of a computer-chip supply crisis right now, prices are going to go up. Its optimistic folly to think that these price issues would be solved this year.
 
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I'll believe it when I see it. Prices are going in the opposite direction: the base model Y now costs $58,900 for example.
Thats compared to Model S prices that were all north of $100,000 not that long ago. Teslas aren't the cheapest but Model 3s look like they are in the mid/low 40s before rebates, and the average new car is $45,000 so. The VW ID.4 is a bit cheaper than the Model 3, the Mustang Mach E is around the same price and the F150 Lighting is supposed to be at parity with the ICE counterpart.
I haven't seen a car this explosive since the Ford Pinto. That Model X exploded and caught on fire before the thing even stopped moving (!!!). This is the kind of unrealistic explosion you'll find in Michael Bay movies, the kind where they plant bombs inside of cars so that they get a more exciting film. Cars don't normally explode like that when they hop a curb.

Even better that this thing is in clear color video. You can see the signature red-lithium flames (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flame_test) of elemental Lithium in that explosion. Gasoline doesn't have that kind of color (you can see the typical "yellow gasoline" fire start up when the gas pump erupts after the Lithium car makes contact with it).
Yeah sensational video.... what about it?

The car looks intact to me, hopefully the driver was ok but people do dumb things in cars. Statistically Teslas are safe cars but don't drive it at high speeds into a gas station.
Tesla is ranked 2nd worst in the market for reliability this year by Consumer Reports.

I'm not convinced that electric is any more reliable than a hunk of iron and steel. Not only that, but the Li-Ion battery packs in general have had large issues across the board.
For fit and finish and build quality reasons, not so much for reliability as far as I know. They are a new company going through explosive growth all the problems associated with that.
Sue from Tesla. I'm sure there are examples of Telsa batteries failing right out of warranty and that would suck but I don't think thats the typical experience, these things are new, they are expected to last ~100,000 miles. They will get cheaper, third party shops will drive the price lower, scale will increase, and cell technology will improve all driving the price down.
Look, these battery packs aren't made out of pure elemental lithium + cobalt. They're also made with legions of SiC MOSFETs and other computer chips. We're in the middle of a computer-chip supply crisis right now, prices are going to go up.
They do use semiconductors but the chip shortage affecting the automotive industry is actually affecting the legacy manufactures more than Tesla due to the legacy manufactures put controller dozens of controler modules all over the vehicle whereas Tesla tends consolidate functionality into fewer modules and rely on the same compute power that drives the infotainment, and navigation systems. There isn't really a lot of semiconductors in the battery, a EV isn't really any better or worse than a ICE vehicle in that regard.
 
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There isn't really a lot of semiconductors in the battery

SiC MOSFETs are a semiconductor, and that specific part is currently in a shortage.


Thats compared to Model S prices that were all north of $100,000 not that long ago. Teslas aren't the cheapest but Model 3s look like they are in the mid/low 40s before rebates, and the average new car is $45,000 so. The VW ID.4 is a bit cheaper than the Model 3, the Mustang Mach E is around the same price and the F150 Lighting is supposed to be at parity with the ICE counterpart.

On October 15, 2020, the U.S. price of the long-range version was lowered to $69,420

1637631754977.png


Model S prices have skyrocketed +$30,000 this past year.

---------

Prices are not going how you think they're going. Chip shortage is absolutely affecting electric cars. SiC MOSFETs are one issue, the AI / Radar / Camera system is another, giant touch-screen tablets are another. All of these things require semiconductors... and not "cheap" semiconductors either. (SiC MOSFETs were always expensive due to their extremely low "on-resistance" and good speeds. But now with the shortage, their prices continue to rise higher and higher)

Better transistors means less resistive losses, meaning greater efficiency meaning better battery life, battery performance, and range. SiC MOSFETs are key to the quality of a good EV battery system, and the EV makers who avoid this high-quality transistor (for supply reasons) are noticeably compromised.

The car looks intact to me, hopefully the driver was ok but people do dumb things in cars. Statistically Teslas are safe cars but don't drive it at high speeds into a gas station.

The gas station wasn't what made it catch on fire.

The car was clearly on fire (with red-lithium flames erupting) from the curb. Gasoline fires are elemental carbon (aka: yellow in color). Red means lithium. Guess what? Nothing in a gas station uses Lithium. Gas stations erupt into yellow flames.

I took basic high school chemistry. I know the two fires in that video and their causes and chemical composition from the color alone. Don't you dare pretend that any of the red-flames in that video had anything to do with the gas station. That fire could have occurred anywhere.
 
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SiC MOSFETs are a semiconductor, and that specific part is currently in a shortage.
Got it, different kind of IC, wasn't aware of that.
Prices are not going how you think they're going. Chip shortage is absolutely affecting electric cars. SiC MOSFETs are one issue, the AI / Radar / Camera system is another, giant touch-screen tablets are another. All of these things require semiconductors.
By in large they are. 2021 global supply constraints compounded by high growth are a factor but the ID.4 and the Mustang Mach E and everything thats going to follow them are offering performance at prices that were possible before.

I took basic high school chemistry. I know the two fires in that video and their causes and chemical composition from the color alone. Don't you dare pretend that any of the red-flames in that video had anything to do with the gas station. That fire could have occurred anywhere.
LOL, good for you. Its your linked video I'm just commenting on it. Don't drive your vehicle containing volatile Lithium Ion batteries or gas into unmovable stationary object would be my advice.

Was the driver ok? I mean thats kinda what matters, not what the crash looked like from security camera footage.
 
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Was the driver ok? I mean thats kinda what matters, not what the crash looked like from security camera footage.

In this case yes. I prefer to post the non-death videos because they are funnier.

When someone dies or is grossly injured, it's not funny. I have a collection of news stories I remember reading however, and IIHS insurance numbers to back up this Li-ion batter explosion point if you want me to keep pushing this point though.

My choice to share funny videos instead of death videos is a personal choice of mine. You can imagine how people die from this kind of consistent explosion: bottoming out from a bad road, or hopping the curb is more common than you might think.

This crash video is basically perfect for my argument. No deaths so we can feel good about sharing, studying and thinking about it. A clear camera angle and clear color that demonstrates the chemicals at play. And even the precise moment where the car catches on fire (hitting the curb in front)

Other videos have death involved, are blurry dashcams, or no witnesses at all (and just the pics of the day after). Seeing the explosion in realtime with clarity doesn't get any better than that one video I'm sharing
 
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Tech dorkwads have claimed this discussion as their own, concocting incredibly farcical scenarios as justification to promote their own agenda.

I hereby terminate any further participation here.

Enjoy debating nonsensical situations.
 
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I think the definite push for hydrogen will be plains and ships because i don't see any other way for them to go green, when that is settled cars can capitalize on it
 
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Hydrogen is highly explosive in nature. Currently it's used only in things which are built to survive in extreme conditions like submarines, satellites ( things built for use in space), etc. It's not economical to use hydrogen in cars from today's technological point of view while battery operated vehicles can be cheap. So hydrogen has taken a back seat.
 
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I think the definite push for hydrogen will be plains and ships because i don't see any other way for them to go green

Synthetic fuel
 

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Synthetic fuel

There's like 10+ different competing synthetic fuels though, some of which are Hydrogen based.

That's the thing: I'm not willing to rule out any potential solution yet. If they can prove Hydrogen, then we should use it. If Japan wants to go for it, I think we should be supportive of them. The arguments for Hydrogen as a synthetic fuel (either as syngas, or liquified Hydrogen, or other forms) seem pretty strong to me... from environmental, to logistical, to economical.

In the absolute worst case: it has been shown that Hydrogen (aka: Syngas) can be converted into Methanol, and Methanol can be mixed into classical gasoline safely. So it even provides a path to "greenify" our already existing ICE cars.
 
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My bet is still in hydrogen, but it's a gamble at this point
 
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My bet is still in hydrogen, but it's a gamble at this point

It'd be great if we could make it work, but like nuclear fusion, it's been stuck at Real Soon Now for quite some time. I have a little optimism, emphasis on the "little".
 
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I'll believe it when I see it. Prices are going in the opposite direction: the base model Y now costs $58,900 for example.

View attachment 226280


Prices have been going up. Not just a little bit, but by a lot. These big battery packs need those SiC MOSFETs, you know, those "semiconductors" that are currently in shortage everywhere around the world.

Battery / electric powers won't route themselves. You need a semiconductor to move energy around. The Li-Ion savings of the past few years have been wiped away by increasing silicon costs. Our iron / steel supply chains are simply more reliable than our high-tech / chip making supply chains.



Watch the video again.

https://www.reddit.com/r/IdiotsInCars/comments/ppqqwg
I haven't seen a car this explosive since the Ford Pinto. That Model X exploded and caught on fire before the thing even stopped moving (!!!). This is the kind of unrealistic explosion you'll find in Michael Bay movies, the kind where they plant bombs inside of cars so that they get a more exciting film. Cars don't normally explode like that when they hop a curb.

Even better that this thing is in clear color video. You can see the signature red-lithium flames (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flame_test) of elemental Lithium in that explosion. Gasoline doesn't have that kind of color (you can see the typical "yellow gasoline" fire start up when the gas pump erupts after the Lithium car makes contact with it).



Tesla is ranked 2nd worst in the market for reliability this year by Consumer Reports.

I'm not convinced that electric is any more reliable than a hunk of iron and steel. Not only that, but the Li-Ion battery packs in general have had large issues across the board.



Even at the phone-level making tiny batteries, we have had some fire issues in the past couple of years.


At some point, it becomes evident that the entire Li-Ion battery marketplace is less reliable than people think. It doesn't matter if you're Tesla, Chevy, Hyundai, or Samsung, the chemistry seems prone to these fires and explosions.
At some point it becomes evident that when you make billions of batteries, some will malfunction.

It's not the iron and steel that malfunctions, it's the associated wear and tear of machinery that has thousands of moving parts, compared to solid state electric motors.
 
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Germany's new Chancellor replacing Merkel in early December is all in with hydrogen. Hmm, interesting.

HIs name is Olaf... I bet he hated when that movie Frozen got super popular :D

 
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There's like 10+ different competing synthetic fuels though, some of which are Hydrogen based.

There are ten different precise formulations for the gas you put in your car that all sell under the same label., but modem injectors don't need you to mess around with manual Choke.

Mass-produced Chemistry has never been an exact science (only "good enough")

I'm sure that all of these biofuels (once mass-produced) will target an EXISTING given chemical mix standard for jet fuel, and all the slight variatioons will all be handled by a new generation of fuel injectors!

That's the thing: I'm not willing to rule out any potential solution yet. If they can prove Hydrogen, then we should use it. If Japan wants to go for it, I think we should be supportive of them. The arguments for Hydrogen as a synthetic fuel (either as syngas, or liquified Hydrogen, or other forms) seem pretty strong to me... from environmental, to logistical, to economical.


Hydrogen will never be anywhere near a mass-produced plane's fuel tank, as it's stored in the wings (these bulky things will never fit)

Also, the only thing strong enough to store 10k psi liquid hydrogen is fiber-reinforced steel (not lightweight by any stretch, if you look at that beefy Toyota Mirai curb weight)

They will have to convert Hydrogen to gas here on the ground.
 
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Hydrogen it's 3 times more energy efficient, so a plan can use 3 times less height for the fuel alone. That can more then compensate any extra security measures needed.
Airbus is already doing in successful test flights
 
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Hydrogen will never be anywhere near a mass-produced plane's fuel tank, as it's stored in the wings (these bulky things will never fit)

Also, the only thing strong enough to store 10k psi liquid hydrogen is fiber-reinforced steel (not lightweight by any stretch, if you look at that beefy Toyota Mirai curb weight)

They will have to convert Hydrogen to gas here on the ground.

Not necessarily gasoline / petrol. Metal Hydrides show promise, in that they can "store" Hydrogen inside of a chemical, which is then released at a later time. NiMH batteries are basically this in fact, but instead of releasing Hydrogen to make electricity, you'd just want to release Hydrogen to burn.

As you can see: the line is incredibly blurry between various energy storage mechanisms. Something like a NiMH battery is a hybrid between hydrogen and electric storage. Its best if we kept our minds open to the many possibilities that are available, especially because all of this stuff we're talking about are basically research projects. One or two of them will randomly have a breakthrough, but no one really knows which technology will get a breakthrough first.

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There's simplicity though to the 10,000 PSI steel container full of hydrogen though. Its brutally simple in concept. Just compress the H2 to the point where it fits in the size you want. Cryogenics start getting complicated though.
 
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Hydrogen it's 3 times more energy efficient, so a plan can use 3 times less height for the fuel alone. That can more then compensate any extra security measures needed.
Airbus is already doing in successful test flights
No it can't - all current aircraft use in-wing tanks, but in order to get that kind of higher energy density requires over 10k psi tanks.

You can't do that with anything small enough to fit inside any aircraft wing!


This is just as pointless as the Oil-industry-funded push for Blue Hydrogen - by the time you work-out all these impossible issues for putting hydrogen on and n plane, you could have figured out how to convert it to jet fuel!
 
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