Is the internet on the brink of collapse?

[CAPSLOCKSTUCK]

I dont know how other people feel about it, but, for me the WWW has become quite important.

The Royal Society https://royalsociety.org/ are set to discuss data demand issues and where do we go from here.

The deployment to market is about six to eight years behind the research lab - so within eight years that will be it, we can't get any more data in.

What the Internet really looks like: Each yellow line is one of the major fiber-optic cables that carry Internet traffic around the world. These are the 'plumbing' of the internet, and many are routed undersea



The cables and fibre optics that send information to our laptops, smartphones and tablets will have reached their limit.
Experts warn science has reached its limit and that fibre optics can take no more data from a single optical fibre.
The internet companies could always put down additional cables - but that will mean higher bills.
Experts say we could be faced with paying double or will have to put up with an internet that switches off intermittently.
Storing information in large 'server farms', rather than transferring it, would take the strain off the network.

The internet is heading towards a 'capacity crunch' as it fails to keep up with our demand for ever faster data, scientists have warned.
Leading engineers, physicists and telecoms firms have been summoned to a meeting at London's Royal Society later this month, to discuss what can be done to avert a web crisis.

The cables and fibre optics that send information to our laptops, smartphones and tablets will have reached their limit within eight years, experts warn.

So far, engineers have managed to keep ahead of demand, increasing internet speeds 50-fold in the last decade alone.
n 2005, broadband internet had a maximum speed of 2 Megabits per second. Today 100Mb-per-second download speeds are available in many parts of the country.

But experts warn that science has reached its limit - that fibre optics can take no more data.

The result, according to Professor Andrew Ellis, who has co-organised the Royal Society meeting on May 11, will be higher internet bills.
Professor Ellis, of Aston University in Birmingham, told the Daily Mail: 'We are starting to reach the point in the research lab where we can't get any more data into a single optical fibre.
'The intensity is the same as if you were standing right up against the sun.

'The deployment to market is about six to eight years behind the research lab - so within eight years that will be it, we can't get any more data in.

'Demand is increasingly catching up. It is growing again and again, and it is harder and harder to keep ahead.

'We have done very well for many years to keep ahead. But we are getting to that point where we can't keep going for ever
The professor warned that it also takes a huge amount of electricity to transfer data.

'The internet uses the same energy as the airline industry - about two per cent of a developed country's entire energy consumption,' he said.

'That is just for the data transfer. If you then add the computers, the phones, the television, then it is up to eight per cent of the country's energy consumption.'

Every time internet speed increases, the electricity it takes to transfer the power also rises.

Professor Ellis said: 'That is quite a huge problem. If we have multiple fibres to keep up, we are going to run out of energy in about 15 years.




Not everyone, however, is convinced of the severity of the situation.

Andrew Lord, head of optical research at BT and a visiting professor at Essex University, insists scientists will come up with a solution.
Professor Lord, who will address the Royal Society meeting, said storing information in large 'server farms', rather than transferring it, would take the strain off the network.
'The internet is not about to collapse,' he said. 'It has a lot of bandwidth left in it.'
A spokesman for the Royal Society said: 'Communication networks face a potentially disastrous 'capacity crunch' as demand for data online outstrips the capacity of the optical fibres that carry internet signals.

'This meeting brings together experts to discuss why we're heading towards a capacity crunch, what can be done to avert it, and the impact if we do nothing: data rationing, the end of net neutrality and rising costs for going online.'

 

[qubit]

If I can't access TPU because of this then my life would stop.

 

[CAPSLOCKSTUCK]

Before the internet, there was the ARPANET

want to know more........ 40 maps that explain the internet..... have a click, its interesting.
http://www.vox.com/a/internet-maps

 

[Fourstaff]

I don't know about US, but East Asia has been laying cables down like mad.

 

[The Von Matrices]

Experts say we could be faced with paying double or will have to put up with an internet that switches off intermittently.

That seems a bit hyperbolic, don't you think? Even in the worst case scenario, there would just be congestion and slow transfers, not a complete disconnection.

 

[CAPSLOCKSTUCK]

In the UK there is a massive rollout of optic cabling. The Govt has prioritised rural areas in the hope that it will stimulate employment.

I think the question being posed at the Royal Society is whether current planning will cope with future expansion, especially in areas of large population with huge demand.

Even in the worst case scenario, there would just be congestion and slow transfers, not a complete disconnection.

please dont remind me of the dialup days

 

[DinaAngel]

I think these so called experts is being paid to say this. If we don't allow the Internet to grow then bad stuff happens. War etc.

Fusion reactors are soon done and then power problem is gone. First one is being made in France.
50 mW into it and 500 mW out

People are just greedy and lazy
the cables aren't that expensive.
it costs more to build roads than to lay fiber from USA to the uk

 

[W1zzard]

No worries, internet = tons of money, so they will build new capacity - to make more money, or if capacity really ends up short, bandwidth prices for hosting will go up a few percentage points. market economy and capitalism to the rescue

 

[DinaAngel]

No worries, internet = tons of money, so they will build new capacity - to make more money, or if capacity really ends up short, bandwidth prices for hosting will go up a few percentage points. market economy and capitalism to the rescue

Germany got such terrible internet speeds. Will it ever change?

 

[W1zzard]

Germany got such terrible internet speeds. Will it ever change?

The article is not really about end-user connectivity, but backbones, especially intercontinental ones. My connection here is 50 mbit, the lowest available, i could get 200 mbit if i wanted. if i could save a few bucks i'd even be happy with 16 mbit.

in my old place the maximum is like 2 mbit/s, that sucks, but was still usable

 

[qubit]

Fusion reactors are soon done and then power problem is gone. First one is being made in France.

I wish it was that easy. The French one is the ITER prototype which is currently under construction. There are still lots of hurdles to go through for a design that's commercially viable and will last for years, unfortunately. The basic problem is that the intense heat of the plasma destroys the reactor walls too quickly.

in my old place the maximum is like 2 mbit/s, that sucks, but was still usable

I remember my first broadband connection in 2002. It was a mere 0.5Mb/s, but it felt like a sports car!

 

[vega22]

In the UK there is a massive rollout of optic cabling. The Govt has prioritised rural areas in the hope that it will stimulate employment.

how much fibre has bt really laid?

from what i have seen they have only put it down in places where they already had total internet coverage and high population.

none of the people i know from the more remote corners have had anything more than vague promises of the "near future" variety.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

I'm far more concerned about processors than network cabling. Worst case scenario, we can always lay more cables to increase capacity. The problem is the switches and routers. There's only so much data they can handle so fast. If process technology doesn't keep charging forward, we're going to have open highways with congested intersections.

 

[CAPSLOCKSTUCK]

how much fibre has bt really laid?

from what i have seen they have only put it down in places where they already had total internet coverage and high population.

none of the people i know from the more remote corners have had anything more than vague promises of the "near future" variety.

The guys doing the work 100ms from my house.....very rural remote West Wales. Only 800 people live in my village.

A thing about subaqua cabling networks. Including a CNN interview. Interesting, not much to read.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/04/tech/gallery/internet-undersea-cables/

 

[AsRock]

I think these so called experts is being paid to say this. If we don't allow the Internet to grow then bad stuff happens. War etc.

Fusion reactors are soon done and then power problem is gone. First one is being made in France.
50 mW into it and 500 mW out

People are just greedy and lazy
the cables aren't that expensive.
it costs more to build roads than to lay fiber from USA to the uk

but to put the cable there takes digging up the roads. And i bet the cable that is placed on the sea floor is nothing cheap.

 

[CAPSLOCKSTUCK]

The last cable laid under the Pacific cost $ 300 million

https://www.telegeography.com/

 

[Aquinus]

The problem is the switches and routers. There's only so much data they can handle so fast. If process technology doesn't keep charging forward, we're going to have open highways with congested intersections.

I think that comes down the the same argument as the cabling though. If they really run out of switching capacity it means that they need to segment their network more and add more routers at different parts of the network. It's the same argument with bandwidth and DOCSIS. You can provide 1Gbps on DOCSIS 3.x, the question is how many more nodes and intermediate switches will need to be added to accommodate the load. Network traffic, even more so on tier 1 and 2 networks, tend to be designed in a way to can scale horizontally if they were to decide to build their network up. Although any upgrades cost money and in a capitalistic society where ISPs have a chokehold on certain markets, there isn't a whole lot of incentive. That's the big problem IMHO.

The only down side might be (slightly) increased latency due to more routers and hops across the internet, but I would happily give up 7ms and 115Mbps to get 11-13ms and 300Mbps, but that's me.

 

[dorsetknob]

Google will Save us with their Zepplins and don't forget Facebook with their R101

Maybe amazon will fit Pico Cells into their fleet of Delivery Drones ( Amazon PRIME customers only )

Hope is not lost quite yet snigger

 

[FordGT90Concept]

I think that comes down the the same argument as the cabling though. If they really run out of switching capacity it means that they need to segment their network more and add more routers at different parts of the network. It's the same argument with bandwidth and DOCSIS. You can provide 1Gbps on DOCSIS 3.x, the question is how many more nodes and intermediate switches will need to be added to accommodate the load. Network traffic, even more so on tier 1 and 2 networks, tend to be designed in a way to can scale horizontally if they were to decide to build their network up. Although any upgrades cost money and in a capitalistic society where ISPs have a chokehold on certain markets, there isn't a whole lot of incentive. That's the big problem IMHO.

The only down side might be (slightly) increased latency due to more routers and hops across the internet, but I would happily give up 7ms and 115Mbps to get 11-13ms and 300Mbps, but that's me.

I believe OC-768 is the largest deployed and it is 40 Gb/s. If you look at top of the line networking equipment, that number comes up frequently.

 

[Aquinus]

I believe OC-768 is the largest deployed and it is 40 Gb/s. If you look at top of the line networking equipment, that number comes up frequently.

I get that, but the consumer isn't going to getting SONET OC-768 fiber to their house, but I diverge. My point is that regardless of bandwidth you have the traveling salesman problem because we're talking about a graph, not a tree, of nodes at tier 1 and 2 networks. Internet traffic doesn't always take the same path across the internet, it's important to remember that because it can (and will) adjust if a path become less advantageous to take. That's really my only point that I'm trying to make. I would rather give up a little bit of latency to get a lot more bandwidth, that's it.

 

[qubit]

"Is the internet on the brink of collapse?"

Peak internet?

 

[cadaveca]

The last cable laid under the Pacific cost $ 300 million

https://www.telegeography.com/

Let's put the money into perspective. 30 million customers (say, a country like Canada), paying $10 a month, pays for that cable in a mere 30 days. SO in a year, $10 per customer can lay 12 new cables across the ocean. The idea that costs will go up or any of that other nonsense is FUD.

Break it up to 6 billion people on the planet = pennies per person. The internet is here to stay, and it isn't going to go "poof".

 

[redeye]

the diagram is missing the arctic cable... the one from japan to the u.k. going though the Canadian arctic, (northwest passage). being laid as we speak... to be operational in 2017, testing in 2016...

this cable will cost any where form 400 million to 600 x2 depending if it gets connected to seattle...

 

[CAPSLOCKSTUCK]

It currently takes roughly 230 milliseconds for a packet to go from London to Tokyo; the new cables will reduce this by 30% to 170ms. Currently these routes racking up around 15,000 miles. It’s only 10,000 miles (16,000km) across the Arctic Ocean, and with fewer land crossings.





A cross section of a modern submarine communications cable.
1 – Polyethylene
2 – Mylar tape
3 – Stranded steel wires
4 – Aluminium water barrier
5 – Polycarbonate
6 – Copper or aluminium tube
7 – Petroleum jelly
8 – Optical fibers

Heres a little something about @redeye 's cable.......less than a minute to read, prices and stuff.

http://www.dailywireless.org/2012/03/21/intercontental-arctic-fiber/

and Google it seems have been especially busy

http://www.dailywireless.org/2014/08/11/google-joins-new-submarine-cable-partnership/

 

[Easy Rhino]

Wow, talk about FUD ...