Asteroid 2024 YR4 reaches level 3 on the Torino Scale

[lexluthermiester]

I wouldn't want to see a nuclear explosion with my naked eyes. Not because it wouldn't be fun, but for other reasons. Kind of reminds me of this:

It wouldn't be within the atmosphere and would be far enough away that it would be harmless to directly observe.

It's a very real theory and the object in question is small enough that a nuke could nudge it off it's coarse with a precision hit. It may sound like something out if SciFi, but the physics are real.

Yup, my semantic mistake. I said impact without thinking.

To be fair, you're not wrong. An airburst is still an impact, it's just one that hit the atmosphere and didn't reach the ground. But I digress..

 

[A Computer Guy]

Even it impacts the earth, human life will continue. We proved that we are so resilient than any other species

I often wonder if the Gov't might use salt mines to create underground habitats if we detect an extinction level asteroid. Those things are deep.

 

[dirtyferret]

Ever seen "Don't Look Up"? I see that as more likely.

See it?! We F$%*ing live it every day for the past few weeks.

 

[Assimilator]

I often wonder if the Gov't might use salt mines to create underground habitats if we detect an extinction level asteroid. Those things are deep.

The amount of infrastructure you'd need to support even a tiny human population, given the inability of said population to rely on the sun and the resultant bounty of flora and fauna it puts out, is astronomical; you might as well be on another planet at that point. Without a reliable and effectively limitless energy source like fusion to sustain that habitat, I don't even consider it possible.

 

[Divide Overflow]

2024 YR4 is roughly the size of a city killer, not a planet killer. They are still working out how big it is and there's not a lot of good observation data on it yet. We have an good idea of it's path but not enough confidence on it's timing to confirm if it will hit the earth or pass by in a near miss. Scott Manley has a reasonably good clip on it:

 

[mclaren85]

I often wonder if the Gov't might use salt mines to create underground habitats if we detect an extinction level asteroid. Those things are deep.

Russian government has been allegedly building a city under Mount Yamantau. Some, even claim it is a miniature Moscow. I'm sure other countries are also building some secret facilities. Of course that kind of shelters are not enough to protect the whole population.

 

[Assimilator]

Russian government has been allegedly building a city under Mount Yamantau. Some, even claim it is a miniature Moscow.

USA has had the Cheyenne Mountain Complex since the late 60s; Russia already has Metro-2 and Ramenki.

 

[Steevo]

There are mines in the Colorado mountains over a mile deep, in Montana the Stillwater mine is deep and we already have a underground city in Havre but its due to a fire, the extreme cold and other cultural reasons (the Chinese building the railroad) but really its insignificant as we will know weeks ahead of time exactly where it will strike IF it does, worst case is a city but we will have time to get people out

Barringer Meteor Crater and Its Environmental Effects

 

[Count von Schwalbe]

Can ya'll take a moment to Google the phrase "project dart" and watch what happens.

 

[Chrispy_]

Ever seen "Don't Look Up"? I see that as more likely.

This is the dumbest timeline, for sure. Just look at global politics for confirmation, while we continue to ignore overwhelming evidence that climate change is happening and that we have probably already passed the point of no return. Humanity is probably extinct at this point unless some amazing breakthrough saves the atmosphere and reverses the damage in ways that are currently completely out of reach.

 

[KLiKzg]

Mark your calendar folks, the end of the world comes in 2032.

Did not expect You to be a Drama queen, here.

 

[the54thvoid]

Let's stick to the topic, folks. Big space rock.

 

[KLiKzg]

One day an asteroid will hit Earth. Humans are lucky enough (or ignorant enough) to live relatively short lifespans that fall in between cosmological events. It's the same for people who choose (or have no choice but to) live near active volcanoes, the risk is mitigated by time, but over time the odds of something dangerous happening increase.

The last huge impact, I think, was the Tunguska event. It impacted in a remote area of Siberia. There was also Chelyabinsk in Russia (being the largest landmass, it's going to have the greater chance of a detected strike). Chelyabinsk exploded (torn apart by air friction) 14 miles up. At that height the estimated 440 kilotonne blast wasn't lethal, but blew out windows over a 200 square mile area.

The Hiroshima atomic bomb had an equivalance of 15 kilotonnes of TNT, but detonated between 1500 & 2000 feet. That explosion killed 70,000 people instantly. Meteors and asteroids are a real threat, but only when considered over multiple human life spans. As for this one in the OP, I'm not personally worried about it. It'll be tracked and if deemed a hazard, things can be done.

This one should be around 7,6Mt explosion...somewhere alongside the equatorial region, source: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2024 YR4

WIth immanent damage to 1000 sq km.

We'll have a lot more chance to do all that in 2028 when it approaches Earth again, I suppose.

DART mission came in handy, now...

It's statistically significant and shows we should be ready, but that's about it.


Dinosaurs thought the same. You simply can't survive a big enough rock unless you are ready for it.

Problem is, if the deflection fails & it hits the ocean...then we are f.ck.d!

Source: https://skyandtelescope.org/astrono...id-has-slight-chance-of-earth-impact-in-2032/

It wouldn't be within the atmosphere and would be far enough away that it would be harmless to directly observe.

It's a very real theory and the object in question is small enough that a nuke could nudge it off it's coarse with a precision hit. It may sound like something out if SciFi, but the physics are real.


To be fair, you're not wrong. An airburst is still an impact, it's just one that hit the atmosphere and didn't reach the ground. But I digress..

Problem remains, how would a "deep space nuke detonation" influence with it's EMP towards Earth & our satellites?

& what kind of message do we send out to neighbouring ET, with nuking things in space?

 

[Steevo]

This is the dumbest timeline, for sure. Just look at global politics for confirmation, while we continue to ignore overwhelming evidence that climate change is happening and that we have probably already passed the point of no return. Humanity is probably extinct at this point unless some amazing breakthrough saves the atmosphere and reverses the damage in ways that are currently completely out of reach.

Politics aside the chances that we ruin this planet with burning carbon that has been here since the beginning of life and before is slim, the chances we prevent a billionaire from flying their private plane when we run out of oil is a much more significant threat to the people still buying oceanfront property and private islands, enjoy your paper straw.

In the 80s paper bags were bad as they had to cut down trees (actually they were using the piles of sawdust from lumbermills) and acid rain from sulfur was going to kill all the fish in pristine mountain meadows. Now all the plastic that doesn't break down thats polluting the earth is the real problem and we found that the sulfur in fuels wasn't as bad as we thought except it caused catalytic converter problems, but now we also removed it from ag use diesel since they now require DEF. Except DEF manufacture costs hundreds of Kw to create Urea (10% of the worlds energy goes to Urea production) and distilled water, then the transportation and plastic (pesky stuff) jugs... its a new negative for the total environmental impact, currently if we eliminate hydropower (cause some counties kinda cheated that rule) the rest is just barely enough to cover the production of Urea.

Anyway, long story short, the changes we are making are great some are still backwards cause someone feels good about it and gets a kickback (like Musk selling EVs) and until we can come to the understanding that only nuclear power will "save" us the rest is a bandaid and really feels like the rich want to keep the resources from the rest of us peons so they can continue to play while our straws dissolve, but at least Taylor Swift can lip synch and dance for teen girls....


Back to the topic, we have the technology, but it can fail, and its always good to have a backup plan. Also the asteroid meme is coming true, we just missed it by a few years.

 

[AusWolf]

Politics aside the chances that we ruin this planet with burning carbon that has been here since the beginning of life and before is slim, the chances we prevent a billionaire from flying their private plane when we run out of oil is a much more significant threat to the people still buying oceanfront property and private islands, enjoy your paper straw.

In the 80s paper bags were bad as they had to cut down trees (actually they were using the piles of sawdust from lumbermills) and acid rain from sulfur was going to kill all the fish in pristine mountain meadows. Now all the plastic that doesn't break down thats polluting the earth is the real problem and we found that the sulfur in fuels wasn't as bad as we thought except it caused catalytic converter problems, but now we also removed it from ag use diesel since they now require DEF. Except DEF manufacture costs hundreds of Kw to create Urea (10% of the worlds energy goes to Urea production) and distilled water, then the transportation and plastic (pesky stuff) jugs... its a new negative for the total environmental impact, currently if we eliminate hydropower (cause some counties kinda cheated that rule) the rest is just barely enough to cover the production of Urea.

Anyway, long story short, the changes we are making are great some are still backwards cause someone feels good about it and gets a kickback (like Musk selling EVs) and until we can come to the understanding that only nuclear power will "save" us the rest is a bandaid and really feels like the rich want to keep the resources from the rest of us peons so they can continue to play while our straws dissolve, but at least Taylor Swift can lip synch and dance for teen girls....


Back to the topic, we have the technology, but it can fail, and its always good to have a backup plan. Also the asteroid meme is coming true, we just missed it by a few years.

Don't change the topic, please. "What about global warming" is not an argument for or against anything.

 

[KLiKzg]

Don't change the topic, please. "What about global warming" is not an argument for or against anything.

Yes, please!

As I would like to vote for "painting the damn thing" with 2028 or 2029 launch window.

 

[Steevo]

Yes, please!

As I would like to vote for "painting the damn thing" with 2028 or 2029 launch window.

If we can observe it in 2028 and get an actual trajectory with high confidence I think we should have the hardware ready to launch with backup or two in place. No reason to see what the real world effects of a possible 100m metallic impact are if a push, dart, detonation, paint, or otherwise would prevent it.

 

[Count von Schwalbe]

Theoretically, I would think an existing Anti-Ballistic Missile would be the best way to deal with it. Stick a GBI in a Starship (I checked, it fits and is within the weight capacity for GTO mission profile) and go full send. That way it would have good enough terminal-phase guidance to actually hit it. Bear in mind that DART had a far larger target with a lot less uncertainty.

Unfortunately I couldn't find any data on extra-atmospheric launch of the entire GBI missile - probably because nobody is dumb enough to ask that in the first place. I would hope it would have the fuel to go the ~4m miles from a GTO orbit, considering its range from surface launch. Nukes are probably a bad idea - more likely to just break it up and ensure that earth will be peppered by assorted meteoroids than anything else.

I don't know if any other ABM would have the performance at those velocities without significant modification. Using publicly available data, GBI appears to be able to handle closure rates of something like 18 Km/s, where SM-3, THAAD, Arrow 3, and 51T6 seem to cap out around 10 Km/s. Considering that 2024 YR4 is already travelling at 13 Km/s it would appear to preclude them. However, considering the angle it would approach from given a 2028 interception, it is possible that closure rate performance may not be so important.

The EKV used in GBI missiles would have to be going 11.5 m/s directly opposite the flight path of the meteor on impact. LEAP, used in SM-3, would need to be going 37.7 m/s. I suspect most of the energy would be burned in getting to interception point, then stopping and turning. Accelerating to 40 m/s in space is trivial.

 

[Chrispy_]

Nukes are probably a bad idea - more likely to just break it up and ensure that earth will be peppered by assorted meteoroids than anything else.

The threat to earth is exponential with size:

125x 20m-wide asteroid fragments will burn up in the atmosphere, 100% harmless.
1x 100m-wide asteroid is Torino-9, aka unprecedented regional devastation.

Same mass, completely different effect.

 

[Count von Schwalbe]

125x 20m-wide asteroid fragments will burn up in the atmosphere, 100% harmless.

Per Google:

On February 15, 2013, a 20-meter asteroid exploded in the atmosphere above Chelyabinsk, Russia, releasing energy equivalent to 500 kilotons of TNT

The Chelyabinsk meteorite is of relatively similar composition to 2024 YR4.

Oh, and for context, the highest yield nuclear missile in US inventory is the Trident 2, which can be fitted with a 475 kiloton warhead.

 

[Chrispy_]

Per Google:

The Chelyabinsk meteorite is of relatively similar composition to 2024 YR4.

Oh, and for context, the highest yield nuclear missile in US inventory is the Trident 2, which can be fitted with a 475 kiloton warhead.

Yeah, harmless in the grand scheme of things - Some broken windows and people injured by cut glass.

If we had a 100m-wide asteroid impacting estimates are that it would obliterate everything in a 15km radius, set fire to everything another 15km out from that, and envelop an area the size of many countries is dust and ash. That would be really bad if it landed in a city, but even if it landed in water, the resulting tsunami is predicted to cause up to 1 million deaths

 

[AusWolf]

Maybe we're over-simplifying it. Ok, we send the nuke or whatever to alter the asteroid's course. Then what? What if it hits another, bigger asteroid that comes towards us in the future? How will it affect the orbit of other objects in the solar system? The smallest changes can have a big effect, I suppose.

Edit: What if a larger piece breaks off and heads towards us?

 

[Steevo]

Yeah, harmless in the grand scheme of things - Some broken windows and people injured by cut glass.

If we had a 100m-wide asteroid impacting estimates are that it would obliterate everything in a 15km radius, set fire to everything another 15km out from that, and envelop an area the size of many countries is dust and ash. That would be really bad if it landed in a city, but even if it landed in water, the resulting tsunami is predicted to cause up to 1 million deaths

To be clear a MM3 can carry 3 W88 475KT devices 1.425MT . There is no reason a larger single fusion or fusion boosted device couldn't be loaded. Total weight if pure iron at 100m approximately 16.5 million tons. So it would deflect it at the least, probably cause fracturing again if its pure iron, if its nickel iron which is common its lighter by a few million tons. but possibly harder and more prone to fracture.

Is there a Kerbal Space plugin for this sort of thing?

 

[Count von Schwalbe]

To be clear a MM3 can carry 3 W88 475KT devices 1.425MT . There is no reason a larger single fusion or fusion boosted device couldn't be loaded. Total weight if pure iron at 100m approximately 16.5 million tons. So it would deflect it at the least, probably cause fracturing again if its pure iron, if its nickel iron which is common its lighter by a few million tons. but possibly harder and more prone to fracture.

Is there a Kerbal Space plugin for this sort of thing?

Can but doesn't. Trident D5 can carry 4.


It is a rocky asteroid, type S or L. I believe those classes have an upper limit of 30% iron, IIRC.

 

[Athlonite]

I'd be more worried if it was to hit an ocean and cause a large tsunami depending which ocean it hits could affect how many people will be wiped out considering the vast amount of the world's populace that reside close to coastal areas