• Welcome to TechPowerUp Forums, Guest! Please check out our forum guidelines for info related to our community.
  • The forums have been upgraded with support for dark mode. By default it will follow the setting on your system/browser. You may override it by scrolling to the end of the page and clicking the gears icon.

Are Some Companies Pushing Safety too Far in the Space Race?

Status
Not open for further replies.
If you really think that, you clearly know nothing about modern rocket engineering.

Considering your apparent lack of knowledge on the subject, your statement does not really say much.

While that's a fair point, it also implies we should be focusing on profit as a motivation instead of scientific progress. This is not how it should be. We should be pressing forward and applying what we learn to commerce. This is how NASA has worked.
We? Who's we? I am NOT a billionaire. If you go by what the other guy says, the current driving force - apart from profit - is ego... Which is how the first space race came about, mind you.

Only so much scientific progress can be gained from throwing shit into space, and it takes a long time to get anything back. Next leg up would be launch loops, fuel depots, manned missions, and a moon base, with the last one probably not being done within the century, and only if space debris doesn't kill everything because it decided to get funky.
 
While that's a fair point, it also implies we should be focusing on profit as a motivation instead of scientific progress. This is not how it should be. We should be pressing forward and applying what we learn to commerce. This is how NASA has worked.
While I agree in principle, unfortunately our world is becoming more money driven by the year and NASAs approach clearly has been failing for a while with them constantly running out of funds. Hell, the only reason RosCosmos had not died was military and commercial contracts - the money coming from the Russian government were absolutely not enough. Obviously, graft also played a part, but that’s beside the point. Ideally, some sort of equilibrium would have to be reached between scientific interest and monetary gain.

If you go by what the other guy says, the current driving force - apart from profit - is ego... Which is how the first space race came about, mind you.
Ego, sure, but equally so the interest in the technology and space itself for military applications. Rockets, satellite navigation, orbital craft - all of those were seen (for obvious reasons) as pivotal for the potential they have in case the Cold War goes hot.
 
We? Who's we?
Are you kidding? The context of the use of "we" is clearly a societal and civilization scope term.
If you go by what the other guy says, the current driving force - apart from profit - is ego
Moose muffins. The driving force is scientific progress and advancement. Commerce is involved but there's nothing wrong with that.
Which is how the first space race came about, mind you.
Because national pride and sense of achievement had nothing to do with it... :rolleyes:
Only so much scientific progress can be gained from throwing shit into space, and it takes a long time to get anything back. Next leg up would be launch loops, fuel depots, manned missions, and a moon base, with the last one probably not being done within the century, and only if space debris doesn't kill everything because it decided to get funky.
The human race can not continue to leech Earth of natural resources. We need to look to the "stuff" floating freely about the Solar System. The catch is, we've got to go get it all. And how do we do that?...

unfortunately our world is becoming more money driven by the year
There is something to be said there. However, that hasn't really changed much in that last 100 years. It's only shifted around here and there. It doesn't help that we have had self-centered nitwits in power instead of people who are sensible, responsible and wise.

However, progress, like time, marches on, sometimes for it's own sake..
 
In light of Starship's recent issues, do you believe that regulations are what are keeping those rapid unscheduled disassemblies from getting us to Mars?
I would argue 100% not.

FAA regulations tend to be the ones that are most likely to have been written in blood somewhere along the line and have proven time and again that some of them could be more stringent/enforced more harshly which woudl lead to extra lives being saved. From what i have seen about what the FAA want from SpaceX from their RUD's is "what went wrong, what are you doing/trying to prevent that repeat and what can be learnt for everyone going forward".

Space X are pushing as fast as realistically possible IMO especially when this design will in the end be for a human rated space craft and especially the fact it has to be Human rated for Months/Years in a single mission (Think of flight time to and from Mars as the end goal of Starship)

We always hear how Musk is like "Oh We could be pushing this faster/harder/quicker than we are currently" but I bet some of the serious engineers on the projects are sitting back going "Nope everything is going fine at this pace, we dont need to be going quicker" If you work in IT you have probably heard about how some Project Managers expect 9 women to have a kid in 1 month........I get those vibes of Musk in buckets.
 
Are you kidding? The context of the use of "we" is clearly a societal and civilization scope term.
Not kidding. The only "we" that matters is the "we" that pulls the strings. We (you and I) don't, and very likely never will.
Moose muffins. The driving force is scientific progress and advancement. Commerce is involved but there's nothing wrong with that.
And which ones were those in recent years? The developments we see today are meant to bring satellite deployment costs down and make manned commercial flights feasable, with a manned trip to mars as an extended goal.
Because national pride and sense of achievement had nothing to do with it... :rolleyes:
Yes, ego.
The human race can not continue to leech Earth of natural resources. We need to look to the "stuff" floating freely about the Solar System. The catch is, we've got to go get it all. And how do we do that?...
Yeah, that's an economic concern. People already are looking at stuff outside the solar system, that's what breakthrough starshot is all about. If you want to go outside the solar system you need nuclear engines at a minimum, and that's not happening for a long time.
 
If you think this is bad, research the rockets used in the 1950s and 60s, failure rate was horrific. What made it even crazier, that despite most of them failing, they went ahead with adding payloads anyway without it improving as was a impatience for it to get satellites in space. I think even when they started manned missions the success rate wasnt enticing. The shuttles are a massive eye opener as well, all sorts of bad safety standards there.
Reading all that makes the success of the v1 and v2 rockets seem really impressive.
 
I would argue 100% not.

FAA regulations tend to be the ones that are most likely to have been written in blood somewhere along the line and have proven time and again that some of them could be more stringent/enforced more harshly which woudl lead to extra lives being saved. From what i have seen about what the FAA want from SpaceX from their RUD's is "what went wrong, what are you doing/trying to prevent that repeat and what can be learnt for everyone going forward".

Space X are pushing as fast as realistically possible IMO especially when this design will in the end be for a human rated space craft and especially the fact it has to be Human rated for Months/Years in a single mission (Think of flight time to and from Mars as the end goal of Starship)

We always hear how Musk is like "Oh We could be pushing this faster/harder/quicker than we are currently" but I bet some of the serious engineers on the projects are sitting back going "Nope everything is going fine at this pace, we dont need to be going quicker" If you work in IT you have probably heard about how some Project Managers expect 9 women to have a kid in 1 month........I get those vibes of Musk in buckets.
I'd be pissed as hell at those engineers, honest to god. There's been decades of stagnation in spaceflight and you want to take it slow? These flights are unmanned and blowing up is part of the process, why the hell is the FAA butting in? There's no blood involved, and how many manned flights has SpaceX done now? Let them cook!

Love him or hate him, there's been a lot of progress done at SpaceX.
Then you're missing the point.
The point is there's no "we". Any "we" that includes the entire planet and pretends we can change the course of civilization without being a major player is farcical and not one worth discussing.
 
Yeah its this or stagnation. Agree with Rover. If they unmanned and precautions are taken with debris I would say its acceptable.
 
I'd be pissed as hell at those engineers, honest to god. There's been decades of stagnation in spaceflight and you want to take it slow? These flights are unmanned and blowing up is part of the process, why the hell is the FAA butting in? There's no blood involved, and how many manned flights has SpaceX done now? Let them cook!
You… do realize that things going horrendously wrong with unmanned flights can still lead to considerable casualties, right? While sure, theoretically throwing every rule out the window CAN get results faster, well… I thought “developed” countries kinda have left the whole “acceptable casualties” thing behind.
 
Do you wish for only pro-SpaceX conversations in this space?
No, I personally wish for the opposite. But there is no denying your wording invites politics.

I'd be pissed as hell at those engineers, honest to god. There's been decades of stagnation in spaceflight and you want to take it slow? These flights are unmanned and blowing up is part of the process, why the hell is the FAA butting in? There's no blood involved, and how many manned flights has SpaceX done now? Let them cook!

Just a guess but probably because the debris are making it to the fucking ground.
 
Last edited:
You… do realize that things going horrendously wrong with unmanned flights can still lead to considerable casualties, right? While sure, theoretically throwing every rule out the window CAN get results faster, well… I thought “developed” countries kinda have left the whole “acceptable casualties” thing behind.
"Horrendously wrong" being the operative words here. Cursory risk management and "considerable" becomes "non-zero". I'd like to know some examples of things going wrong with unmanned SpaceX flights (or any unmanned flights this century, even) that actually led to casualties.
 
There's been decades of stagnation in spaceflight and you want to take it slow?
Ask the reason why that is........It is not because of regulation/legislation, most of it was funding related in the private sector and 100% politically motivated in regards to NASA (SLS being a dead duck before even selection taking place, but jobs in all the right places/states ).

Here is the main question you should ask, Who has been competing with America in the last 35 years in Spaceflight? As the last great space race was against the Soviet Union.
Russia with Soyuz? Please.........
China? Eh....maybe in the last 5-10 years they have really picked it up and are going to be someone to watch especially in the next 10 but before that? Nothing
India? Yeah sure....in the last 3 years. Nothing really before that and their short/mid term goals arent exactly ground breaking in their focus.
Europe? Christ the Ukraine War has only just made us get our defence spending into gear, and I am pretty sure most of Ariannes funding was to disguise that it was acutally being used for Frances ICBM programmes.

"Horrendously wrong" being the operative words here. Cursory risk management and "considerable" becomes "non-zero". I'd like to know some examples of things going wrong with unmanned SpaceX flights (or any unmanned flights this century, even) that actually led to casualties.

Even more things to look at
 
Just wanted to chime in that we still had contracts with Soyuz to reach the ISS up until the Ukraine war, and replacing it has not been easy. For all Russias faults they really have a capable platform.
 
Ask the reason why that is........It is not because of regulation/legislation, most of it was funding related in the private sector and 100% politically motivated in regards to NASA (SLS being a dead duck before even selection taking place, but jobs in all the right places/states ).

Here is the main question you should ask, Who has been competing with America in the last 35 years in Spaceflight? As the last great space race was against the Soviet Union.
Russia with Soyuz? Please.........
China? Eh....maybe in the last 5-10 years they have really picked it up and are going to be someone to watch especially in the next 10 but before that? Nothing
India? Yeah sure....in the last 3 years. Nothing really before that and their short/mid term goals arent exactly ground breaking in their focus.
Europe? Christ the Ukraine War has only just made us get our defence spending into gear, and I am pretty sure most of Ariannes funding was to disguise that it was acutally being used for Frances ICBM programmes.
Nobody has been competing with America for 35 years, that's exactly the point. Now we've got Blue Origin, Virgin, and SpaceX competing with one another, and that's a GOOD thing.
That's not good. Workplace safety is very important and it's worth taking care of your employees so they can actually perform their duties. This isn't an example of what can happen during flight, however.
Just wanted to chime in that we still had contracts with Soyuz to reach the ISS up until the Ukraine war, and replacing it has not been easy. For all Russias faults they really have a capable platform.
saw your other post heh
 
No, that's YOUR point. Reality is something else.
Okay. Let's go with your point, then. How would we make wider society focus on scientific progress instead of profit as a motivation? And how exactly would we press forward and apply what we learn to commerce?
Just a guess but probably because the debris are making it to the fucking ground.
From the SpaceX press release:
"Starship flew within a designated launch corridor to safeguard the public both on the ground, on water, and in the air. Following the anomaly, SpaceX teams immediately began coordination with the FAA, ATO (air traffic control) and other safety officials to implement pre-planned contingency responses.

Any surviving debris would have fallen within the pre-planned Debris Response Area."

The starship is grounded, SpaceX is giving the FAA the results of their mishap investigation, and the FAA greenlit the launch... Please, tell me what they could've done differently or what additional regulations can be applied. They are in compliance.
 
Okay. Let's go with your point, then. How would we make wider society focus on scientific progress instead of profit as a motivation? And how exactly would we press forward and apply what we learn to commerce?
I'm not jumping down that rabbit hole of debate. I've leave it at this: A single grain of rice can tip the scales one way or the other. Likewise, a single person can change or affect the course of human events. A failure to understand that wisdom and it's application to our place in society is a sad failure indeed.
 
I'm not jumping down that rabbit hole of debate. I've leave it at this: A single grain of rice can tip the scales one way or the other. Likewise, a single person can change or affect the course of human events. A failure to understand that wisdom and it's application to our place in society is a sad failure indeed.
I'll take your word for it. In my experience, though, pissing in an ocean doesn't turn any tides.
 
I'll take your word for it. In my experience, though, pissing in an ocean doesn't turn any tides.
Tell that to Newton, Galileo, Einstien, Sagan, Hawking and everyone else who has made a mark on human advancement, regardless of wealth or social standing. History clearly shows that your point is incorrect. If one makes the choice to be someone who doesn't make a difference, then they never will... Everyone else will get on with life.
 
Tell that to Newton, Galileo, Einstien, Sagan, Hawking and everyone else who has made a mark on human advancement, regardless of wealth or social standing. History clearly shows that your point is incorrect. If one makes the choice to be someone who doesn't make a difference, then they never will... Everyone else will get on with life.
Thought you didn't want to discuss this?

People change society at great expense. What that "expense" is varies from person to person, and in the examples you cite the cost is an entire life's work. For a billionaire worth several lifetimes worth of money...
 
Thought you didn't want to discuss this?

People change society at great expense. What that "expense" is varies from person to person, and in the examples you cite the cost is an entire life's work. For a billionaire worth several lifetimes worth of money...
Like a Blackbird at Mach 3...
 
Just wanted to chime in that we still had contracts with Soyuz to reach the ISS up until the Ukraine war, and replacing it has not been easy. For all Russias faults they really have a capable platform.
Absolutely. We can throw shade at Russia/USSR for their government being what it is or whatever, but Soyuz is undoubtedly one singular greatest space vehicle platform so far. I think someone once joked that it is the AK of space flight - it’s simple, rugged and maybe a tad crude, but it kinda does what it is meant to perfectly, so replacing it is tough. Even Progress is just a “Soyuz V2 and Knuckles”.
 
saw your other post heh
Yeah I took a moment and read my source, decided my post was dumb and deleted it lol.

The starship is grounded, SpaceX is giving the FAA the results of their mishap investigation, and the FAA greenlit the launch... Please, tell me what they could've done differently or what additional regulations can be applied. They are in compliance.
So they say. I take press releases from a company recently in trouble with the FAA (before doge or whatever) with a grain of salt. Can't really say more there, though.
 
I think this is funny...because it's a debate that would not have existed 25 years ago. Why it is so silly is down to a few people. Let's review.

It's 1999. The new year will introduce the 2000s. Paypal is just launching, so nobody knows the name Elon Musk. The prevalent notion in the world is that the offshoring of manufacturing, and switching the US to a service economy is going great, as long as we get cheap labor to make nearly everything, the price of goods has remained almost static despite inflation. All of this is to say the economy is rolling, we have space shuttles, and our government has a budget that is balanced with some space missions. Anyone with half a brain ignores the quotes from NASA, because they make milspec look like a dream.

The thing with NASA though, is that they are a robust government organization. They spend months training anyone who is going to go up into space. They spend hundreds of thousands of dollars creating specifications for a bolt, and they do all of this because the immense investment into the technology pays out in the civilian sector. Tang's a product of minimizing weight by removing excess fluids...microwave ovens are now a commodity good rather than a huge investment...etc... NASA's payback is pretty high, given the tech development is still there.

Flash forward 10 years. The cracks are showing. In 2011 the only remaining shuttles are decomissioned...so private industry reaches out as "the savior of the program." They pull ancient soviet rockets from a nearly forgotten base, combine them with modern tech, and wind-up selling this magic to NASA and the US government as a way "that the private sector can more efficiently provide space flight as a service than NASA ever did." The obvious catch is that they charged slightly less than the cost of old flights (adjusted for inflation), while soaking up billions in grants. It's like buying a plane ticket that's cheaper when you only look at the 60% you paid in cash, and ignoring the 40% paid in credit.

Now, you are experimenting. Not in the traditional sense...you're rebuilding old tech and cutting costs constantly to try and find the point where things fail...and thus where you cannot cut corners anymore. Again, Musk's SpaceX is a company using a fusion of old US and USSR tech...with modern control systems. In car terms, this is adding a shiny new ECU to control a 1980's era big block engine. Your experiments blow up a lot of rockets...but that's "part of the process" according to new tech development. Of course...you fail to reveal that the booster return tech allows you to recycle them...costing nearly as much to scan, verify, and recertify as it does to produce a whole new booster. You cannot get human certified because of your failure rate, which is a cost cutting effort, because if anybody did the math and calculated government was more efficient at this endeavour it'd be a black eye to the supposition that you started this whole mess with. The thing is, they can keep you in red tape to try and stop you from killing people needlessly...and to that you cry out that innovation is being stifled because of rules. It's the sociopathic response to people being displeased with your insanity.



All of this can be summed up though. Rules are neither good nor bad. Too many can be stifling...but the "go fast and break crap" style on engineering is generally paid for in blood. Developed economies generally see paying for things in blood as too expensive. People who bemoan rules often don't understand where they are coming from, so it's easy to see the slowing of development as only a bad thing. My personal opinion is that if SpaceX lost 50% of its grants and awards, they were given to a parallel independent company, and they were forced to actually compete, there's be a lot less whining. Right now, the promise of "private companies can do things more efficient" is a joke, because SpaceX is a government supported monopoly. Hint-hint, if Musk found this with DOGE it'd be something he immediately cut funding to...but what's a little hypocrisy?

Ironically enough, I believe that in many cases over-regulation is a problem. Years of testing for new drugs makes companies more prone to keeping old ones with minor repackages. Aircraft come from basically one of 4 companies, despite being able to fabricate your own for years. OSHA has enough regulations to basically write you a ticket for something no matter what your facility has done to prevent harm to workers. Despite that, I would suggest the oversight on SpaceX is reasonable.



If you want to know why Musk in particular is a broker of BS, that needs to be regulated, then let's see:
1) All of the Cybertruck drama...from the failures through the absolute BS promises, and insano pricing versus what he promised
2) Hyperloop is as simple as an air hockey table in a vacuum tube. Seriously, he said this.
3) How is Hyperloop doing? Boring company now. Oh, they must be more efficient than a regular one. Less, and more expensive you say. Only one project completed in Vegas you say. Said tunnel requires drivers to drive along a tube that is one car width wide you say. It's like the trains already present in the Pittsburgh airport since the 80's...but crappier you say. Wow...Hyperloop is a joke. How much funding? More than $800 million and nothing to show. Jeeze...
4) So, Boring company is out of the loop. Cybertruck is a safety monstrosity. SpaceX is a gigantic tax fund black hole. But, there's a redeeming thing with Tesla, right? Full self driving has been promised since 2016. It's the "you can nap in your car" kind. That had to change everything...right? Not legal you say? Blows through red lights and stop signs you say? Must have a driver watching it in 2025 you say.
5) Good God, the "robots." The people is weird costumes demonstrating what he thought they'd have the ability to do...and tried to sell Tesla on being capable of producing these in the near future. No demonstration of bots. He sold robotics on people in costumers pantomiming robotic movement.

There is a world where Elon didn't open his mouth, promise magic, and delivered solid tech. If this were the case, then I'd say regulation was unreasonable and we should review the restrictions. The thing is, because this came from Elon's mouth, I think it's some flavor of crap. Elon has made a career out of pretending to be Nikola Tesla, practicing the business of governmental grift to pay for his excesses, developed the cult following of Apple, and been perpetually late to underdeliver like your local governmental run road construction project. That requires he be watched, so he doesn't go full snake oil salesman on our money.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top