Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[Tatty_Two]

Well mutations can go either way, apparently the Spanish Flu Pandemic ended because the last known mutation was less transmissible and had milder effects, as for variants that go in the other direction, take a look at the time it takes in various countries for them to become the dominant strain, it takes time, the UK variant was first detected in August apparently, it became the dominant strain in the UK in January (for which most of that time we had high infection rates in any case) and Pfizer (for example) are saying that if one of those more deadly variants appeared and it's current vaccine's efficacy was too low it could produce a new one in 6 - 8 weeks, still not great I agree but where we have a head start now as opposed to several months ago is we have the manufacturing and supply chains to get them out faster than we were able at the end of last year.

I am rarely optimistic but I remain hopeful that it may not get to that stage, but I agree that greater access and the ability to mass manufacturer existing vaccines globally would likely help.

 

[Space Lynx]

Well mutations can go either way, apparently the Spanish Flu Pandemic ended because the last known mutation was less transmissible and had milder effects, as for variants that go in the other direction, take a look at the time it takes in various countries for them to become the dominant strain, it takes time, the UK variant was first detected in August apparently, it became the dominant strain in the UK in January (for which most of that time we had high infection rates in any case) and Pfizer (for example) are saying that if one of those more deadly variants appeared and it's current vaccine's efficacy was too low it could produce a new one in 6 - 8 weeks, still not great I agree but where we have a head start now as opposed to several months ago is we have the manufacturing and supply chains to get them out faster than we were able at the end of last year.

I am rarely optimistic but I remain hopeful that it may not get to that stage, but I agree that greater access and the ability to mass manufacturer existing vaccines globally would likely help.

Agreed, but can't keep printing trillions out of thin air and raising the debt ceiling to pay for it either. If fiat fails, Covid will be least likely cause of death in any nation state.

 

[64K]

Agreed, but can't keep printing trillions out of thin air and raising the debt ceiling to pay for it either. If fiat fails, Covid will be least likely cause of death in any nation state.

If fiat fails then it's game over. Businesses are set up to sell their products and services in fiat and pay their employees in fiat. Crypto doesn't seem like an alternative because if the cable stations shut down because of the ensuing chaos then how can people access their crypto to buy and sell?

 

[HTC]

Well mutations can go either way, apparently the Spanish Flu Pandemic ended because the last known mutation was less transmissible and had milder effects, as for variants that go in the other direction, take a look at the time it takes in various countries for them to become the dominant strain, it takes time, the UK variant was first detected in August apparently, it became the dominant strain in the UK in January (for which most of that time we had high infection rates in any case) and Pfizer (for example) are saying that if one of those more deadly variants appeared and it's current vaccine's efficacy was too low it could produce a new one in 6 - 8 weeks, still not great I agree but where we have a head start now as opposed to several months ago is we have the manufacturing and supply chains to get them out faster than we were able at the end of last year.

I am rarely optimistic but I remain hopeful that it may not get to that stage, but I agree that greater access and the ability to mass manufacturer existing vaccines globally would likely help.

And what is the R value of that strain: 3?

- What if we get unlucky and a new strain appears that has a R value of ... say ... 6+?
- And what about a new strain that spreads as easily as the current ones BUT sends to the hospitals A LOT MORE PEOPLE?
- What about a new strain that resists the current vaccines by ... say ... 50%+?

While only the 1st example would see the spread of the strain @ record levels, all 3 are BAD SCENARIOS.

The worst we could possibly get is a more severe strain, with a much higher R value AND more resistant to existing vaccines.

 

[Tatty_Two]

And what is the R value of that strain: 3?

- What if we get unlucky and a new strain appears that has a R value of ... say ... 6+?
- And what about a new strain that spreads as easily as the current ones BUT sends to the hospitals A LOT MORE PEOPLE?
- What about a new strain that resists the current vaccines by ... say ... 50%+?

While only the 1st example would see the spread of the strain @ record levels, all 3 are BAD SCENARIOS.

The worst we could possibly get is a more severe strain, with a much higher R value AND more resistant to existing vaccines.

I try not to do "what if's" as much as possible, it's like the blind leading the blind, but looking forward based on what we know today, R rates will become less important to a vaccinated population that it has done in the first year of this pandemic to an unvaccinated population, that in effect, with some differences is where the many influenza strains have led us, some of which, if in existence 100 years ago may have done similar damage to the Spanish Flu.................. yes of course there may be more severe variants down the road, I just try very hard not to worry about what next year may herald before I have worried enough about this one

 

[Ahhzz]

I think the UK variant is pretty much worldwide now, a news piece this morning on TV also said that it's likely the Indian variant is also, whilst our infection rates are low the Indian variant now accounts for 75% of all new cases, probably because it is even more transmissible than the UK variant.

I thought the whole point of both the Pfizer and Moderna was that they targeted the part of the virus that made it highly contagious, so that if it mutated that particular trait, it would be less contagious...

 

[Tatty_Two]

I thought the whole point of both the Pfizer and Moderna was that they targeted the part of the virus that made it highly contagious, so that if it mutated that particular trait, it would be less contagious...

Yep and Pfizer has if my memory serves me correctly 88% efficacy against the Indian variant, that still means that 12% of people who have been vaccinated but come into contact with this variant may transmit and/or get a little sick from it (they state it cuts transmission by 65-70% I think) but you make a good point, one of the reasons I am not overly concerned about it in the UK (and maybe I should be) is because the majority of people that have tested positive with it along with the few that have been hospitalised from it are either younger and not received a vaccination yet or are middle aged and only have had one jab or in the case of hospital admissions, chosen not to take the vaccine, either based on medical advice or personal preference. I have not seen any deaths reported thus far specifically for the Indian variant however that is based on news/media reporting only, if that turns out to be the case going forward then theoretically at least we are on our way to a level of herd immunity (I believe).

Almost 3/4 of the adult population in the UK have now received at least one dose of a vaccine, almost 40% have received both.

 

[64K]

I believe the vaccines are working pretty well in my county (population 368,000). Only 17 new cases yesterday. Down from around 600 daily new cases in January. Hospitalizations are way down. ICU patients are way down. Deaths are way down.

 

[TheoneandonlyMrK]

Anyone know of good links to pass an anti vaxer , possibly astra z based.

Not me I'm double dosed btw.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Anyone know of good links to pass an anti vaxer , possibly astra z based.

Not me I'm double dosed btw.

Find a priest to say it is their holy duty to take the vaccine and end the pandemic.

Anti-vaxers, at least the ones I know, aren't one for Logos, but instead are ones for Ethos. Its not about making a logical argument, its about a trusted person making the argument. If they trust priests, find a priest to say the right thing. If they trust Republicans, find a Republican to say the right thing. Etc. etc.

Here is one highly influential priest saying the right thing: https://www.voanews.com/europe/pope-francis-calls-access-care-and-vaccines-all . Of course, Catholics are not looked kindly upon by some folk. If your anti-vaxer is a Southern Baptist, you'll want a southern-baptist source, such as https://www.christiansandthevaccine.com/episodes/intro

If their source of Ethos is Republicans (which seems to be Trump / Fox News right now, unfortunately), that's an easy solution.

Trump urges all Americans to get COVID vaccine: 'It's a safe vaccine' and it 'works'

Former President Trump urged all Americans to get the coronavirus vaccine in a 'Fox News Primetime' exclusive interview on Tuesday, touting its efficacy as both 'a safe vaccine' and "something that works."

www.foxnews.com

 

[TheoneandonlyMrK]

Find a priest to say it is their holy duty to take the vaccine and end the pandemic.

Anti-vaxers, at least the ones I know, aren't one for Logos, but instead are ones for Ethos. Its not about making a logical argument, its about a trusted person making the argument. If they trust priests, find a priest to say the right thing. If they trust Republicans, find a Republican to say the right thing. Etc. etc.

Here is one highly influential priest saying the right thing: https://www.voanews.com/europe/pope-francis-calls-access-care-and-vaccines-all . Of course, Catholics are not looked kindly upon by some folk. If your anti-vaxer is a Southern Baptist, you'll want a southern-baptist source, such as https://www.christiansandthevaccine.com/episodes/intro

If their source of Ethos is Republicans (which seems to be Trump / Fox News right now, unfortunately), that's an easy solution.

Trump urges all Americans to get COVID vaccine: 'It's a safe vaccine' and it 'works'

Former President Trump urged all Americans to get the coronavirus vaccine in a 'Fox News Primetime' exclusive interview on Tuesday, touting its efficacy as both 'a safe vaccine' and "something that works."

www.foxnews.com

So I think trying to convince an anti vaxer atheist with that might not work out but thanks anyway.

 

[Tatty_Two]

So I think trying to convince an anti vaxer atheist with that might not work out but thanks anyway.

So staying away from Government advice/guidance and mainstream media, dunno if either of these will help..........

British Heart Foundation

AstraZeneca Covid vaccine: safety, side effects and everything you need to know | BHF

Royal Pharmaceutical Society (this covers all current vaccines, scroll down for AZ)

Everything you need to know about COVID-19 vaccines - The Pharmaceutical Journal (pharmaceutical-journal.com)

 

[Space Lynx]

Anyone know of good links to pass an anti vaxer , possibly astra z based.

Not me I'm double dosed btw.

There is some data that can help an anti-vaxxer, when they state mRNA is new in humans, the context is slightly false, it's been used in humans in a handful of studies in actual humans listed here but some of these studies go back a decade, with actual mRNA injected in humans... and it seems that nothing bad ever came of it. This is probably the strongest argument there is against: there is a fallacy in the argument scientists make, when they state, "historically, vaccines show their symptoms within 3 months max, so due to this we know the mRNA vaccines are safe" yet they leave out those past vaccines were not using mRNA messenger as its delivery method, therefore, making their premise false initially. You can't compare apples and oranges so carelessly imo. However, the studies below show even some studies of 150+ healthy people getting mRNA injection in 2017 and no long term issues. So that is countered by that single study imo.

mRNA Vaccine Era—Mechanisms, Drug Platform and Clinical Prospection

Messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA)-based drugs, notably mRNA vaccines, have been widely proven as a promising treatment strategy in immune therapeutics. The extraordinary advantages associated with mRNA vaccines, including their high efficacy, a relatively ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

mRNA Vaccine Era—Mechanisms, Drug Platform and Clinical Prospection

Messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA)-based drugs, notably mRNA vaccines, have been widely proven as a promising treatment strategy in immune therapeutics. The extraordinary advantages associated with mRNA vaccines, including their high efficacy, a relatively ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

keep in mind this study was funded by China. which has said mRNA is not ready yet for humans. China does have a mRNA of their own in late stage trials, so I'm not sure what to think of that...

Late-stage trial of Chinese mRNA Covid-19 vaccine to begin in Mexico

It is the first shot developed in China using the same technology as the Pfizer and Moderna jabs.

www.scmp.com

Looks like China will be allowing use of the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine soon, possibly as early as July. So I guess they aren't to afraid of it anymore.

Pfizer CEO opposes U.S. call to waive Covid vaccine patents, cites manufacturing and safety issues

Pfizer's CEO said the waiver proposal "will unleash a scramble for the critical inputs we require in order to make a safe and effective vaccine.'

www.cnbc.com

I understand Pfizer's argument here about the supply chain, however, I had no idea Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine had 280 ingredients/components in it... sourced from 19 countries... that seems... well not as pure as I had originally thought. I thought the ingredients were like a total of 5-7 things when I initially googled "moderna and pfizer ingredient comparison"... so this surprises me... and scares me a bit there was not more transparency to begin with. That being said, it makes their argument more sound... however, had I known I was trusting 19 countries supply chains and not just one... it might have scared me even more, so perhaps don't share this with your friends LOL

 

[Vayra86]

What FB does has no bearing on anything Covid related. They're just happy to allow more nonsense chatter. The only difference now is a more 'measured' approach is being taken that isn't quite as openly hostile.

There's a lot going on here that transcends simple politics but effectively, a conspiracy was previously 'supported' by someone in power. That led to rampant and practically racist behaviour. It also meant it was difficult to rationally discuss the problem of origin without being seen as 'allied' to the conspiracy. A lot of people stepped away from that discussion. Now, a more 'reasoned' approach is being taken, and scientists are more relaxed about getting involved.

It does transcend simple politics. It speaks directly of our ability to look ourselves in the eye and draw the conclusion we should have drawn ages ago: We Are Doing It Wrong.

We need limits to population growth, limits to waste, and limits to how we treat animals. Even IF this was a lab accident, which I'll say right now is utter BS anyway, like most things that were shouted the past year; it does not remove the underlying problem of why viruses exist and keep popping up, and why the frequency of outbreaks is increasing the last few decades.

We're too many and the world is correcting it, as it has been trying to with every past outbreak. They all happen in high density, low quality environments where hygiene is low. Who got hit by Covid the hardest? Exactly. Long term solution: less people, better quality of life. Its really thats simple and every day we avoid that reality, is time wasted and lives lost or lowered in quality. Everywhere. And we're in luck too, because the world is so filthy rich and advanced by now, we can easily make people work less, reproduce less, and still live good lives. A vast portion of work we do, movements we make, is complete and utter waste with no purpose.

Its always nice to consider 'why' do people say what they say, especially a dude like Biden or POTUS in general. They do it, because they want to move thought and action to what they're talking about. Not the thing that SHOULD be talked about. That alone is enough of a motivator. The reality is that he's stalling to take the actions that truly need to be taken.


Conspiracies... I think they're a great way for every single human to flee to, again, to avoid the harsh truth they don't want to see or talk about. That applies to every conspiracy ever, really. None of them are true. The reality is that there are systems so deeply intertwined and a few people who understand it on a level the rest does not, taking advantage. Humans being human. Not understanding does not make reality a conspiracy.

 

[Space Lynx]

It does transcend simple politics. It speaks directly of our ability to look ourselves in the eye and draw the conclusion we should have drawn ages ago: We Are Doing It Wrong.

We need limits to population growth, limits to waste, and limits to how we treat animals. Even IF this was a lab accident, which I'll say right now is utter BS anyway, like most things that were shouted the past year; it does not remove the underlying problem of why viruses exist and keep popping up, and why the frequency of outbreaks is increasing the last few decades.

We're too many and the world is correcting it, as it has been trying to with every past outbreak. They all happen in high density, low quality environments where hygiene is low. Who got hit by Covid the hardest? Exactly. Long term solution: less people, better quality of life. Its really thats simple and every day we avoid that reality, is time wasted and lives lost or lowered in quality. Everywhere.

Its always nice to consider 'why' do people say what they say, especially a dude like Biden or POTUS in general. They do it, because they want to move thought and action to what they're talking about. Not the thing that SHOULD be talked about. That alone is enough of a motivator. The reality is that he's stalling to take the actions that truly need to be taken.


Conspiracies... I think they're a great way for every single human to flee to, again, to avoid the harsh truth they don't want to see or talk about. That applies to every conspiracy ever, really. None of them are true. The reality is that there are systems so deeply intertwined and a few people who understand it on a level the rest does not, taking advantage. Humans being human. Not understanding does not make reality a conspiracy.

It's very true, you can even look at deer populations. When a deer population becomes too large, disease typically breaks out naturally to reduce the numbers. It's natures mechanism for balance. I imagine the same thing is happening and will continue to happen with humans, as humans continue to alter the world around them more and more. Also, climate change goes hand in hand in this, the alterations typically, but not always coincide, but mostly they go hand in hand from what I can see.

I still would like to know what 19 countries are sourcing the 280 ingredients in the Pfizer vaccine though. It's not nearly as simple as I had thought.

Pfizer CEO opposes U.S. call to waive Covid vaccine patents, cites manufacturing and safety issues

Pfizer's CEO said the waiver proposal "will unleash a scramble for the critical inputs we require in order to make a safe and effective vaccine.'

www.cnbc.com

 

[HTC]

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until Sunday's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 22822 active cases --- 307 more --- 44 more per day
- 808813 recovered --- 3121 more --- 446 more per day
- 17023 fatalities --- 6 more --- less than 1 more per day
- 848658 confirmed infected --- 3434 more --- 491 more per day

- 11746267 tests taken --- 314903 more --- 52484 more per day but was last updated May 29th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 5442582 vaccinated --- 500618 more --- last updated Sunday but that corresponds to 3666216 1st doses + 1776366 2nd doses
- 271 hospitalized --- 51 more --- 7 more per day
- 54 in ICU --- 4 less --- 1 less per day

The main report wasn't published on 2 days, so i had to use the situation report instead.

Week fatalities dropped VS last week and we also had THREE more days with zero fatalities: the week average has dropped below 10 for the 9th consecutive week. New cases increased again and the R number increased to 1.07 on average. Roughly 36.5% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 17.6% have received both doses.

The R number continues to climb (latest figure is from May 27th) and we had a more worrisome increase in hospitalized: something no doubt Saturday's Champions League Final celebrations will make worse next month ...

 

[Space Lynx]

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.

View attachment 202244View attachment 202245View attachment 202246View attachment 202247View attachment 202248View attachment 202249View attachment 202250View attachment 202251

The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until Sunday's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 22822 active cases --- 307 more --- 44 more per day
- 80813 recovered --- 3121 more --- 446 more per day
- 17023 fatalities --- 6 more --- less than 1 more per day
- 848658 confirmed infected --- 3434 more --- 491 more per day

- 11746267 tests taken --- 314903 more --- 52484 more per day but was last updated May 29th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 5442582 vaccinated --- 500618 more --- last updated Sunday but that corresponds to 3666216 1st doses + 1776366 2nd doses
- 271 hospitalized --- 51 more --- 7 more per day
- 54 in ICU --- 4 less --- 1 less per day

The main report wasn't published on 2 days, so i had to use the situation report instead.

Week fatalities dropped VS last week and we also had THREE more days with zero fatalities: the week average has dropped below 10 for the 9th consecutive week. New cases increased again and the R number increased to 1.07 on average. Roughly 36.5% of Portugal's population has received the vaccine's 1st dose and roughly 17.6% have received both doses.

The R number continues to climb (latest figure is from May 27th) and we had a more worrisome increase in hospitalized: something no doubt Saturday's Champions League Final celebrations will make worse next month ...

I have never understood exactly what the recovered number means. Because the vast vast majority of people who are asymptomatic or just get the sniffles, probably don't bother to take a second covid test, and if they do and it is with a different company, is still reported, and then that active infection is then moved to a recovered section? Like the logistics of that seems like a nightmare... no way it works properly...

 

[ThrashZone]

Hi,
Not near enough testing time has pasted not even the fda has approved any of them past emergency use.
Only J&J's vaccine was created like past vaccines and still no real time testing it.

 

[HTC]

I have never understood exactly what the recovered number means. Because the vast vast majority of people who are asymptomatic or just get the sniffles, probably don't bother to take a second covid test, and if they do and it is with a different company, is still reported, and then that active infection is then moved to a recovered section? Like the logistics of that seems like a nightmare... no way it works properly...

Recovered are those that WERE infected but aren't anymore, having recovered from the virus. Obviously, this number doesn't include MANY of those that HAD the virus but were never tested due to being asymptomatic, so our ACTUAL recovered number is likely MUCH HIGHER.

Whenever someone is found to be infected, his / her close contacts are tested, regardless of symptoms, to see if any of them also have it, and their contacts should they have it ... and so on: it's A LOT EASIER to do this with low case numbers and it gets an ABSOLUTE NIGHTMARE with high numbers, by which time i have serious doubts it works @ all ...


Back when i had symptoms last year, i called our health number and they ordered me a PCR test, which turned out negative: i was still ordered to stay @ home for 2 weeks just in case it turned out to be a false negative. Since then i had 2 more PCR tests @ work last year, also negative, and had two of those rapid tests this year, also negative: i'm expected to take a 3rd rapid test @ work this Monday. Our instructions are, if these rapid tests either come back inconclusive or with a positive result, we are then scheduled a PCR test to "get to the bottom of it".

 

[64K]

I was just reading an article that said that even with people that took the first shot and the booster the protection might not last very long. A third shot might be necessary later on.

Also it stated that 39% of the people in my country (USA) are fully vaccinated right now.

Moderna and Pfizer are already developing COVID-19 vaccine boosters. Do we need a third shot?

 

[Space Lynx]

Recovered are those that WERE infected but aren't anymore, having recovered from the virus. Obviously, this number doesn't include MANY of those that HAD the virus but were never tested due to being asymptomatic, so our ACTUAL recovered number is likely MUCH HIGHER.

Whenever someone is found to be infected, his / her close contacts are tested, regardless of symptoms, to see if any of them also have it, and their contacts should they have it ... and so on: it's A LOT EASIER to do this with low case numbers and it gets an ABSOLUTE NIGHTMARE with high numbers, by which time i have serious doubts it works @ all ...


Back when i had symptoms last year, i called our health number and they ordered me a PCR test, which turned out negative: i was still ordered to stay @ home for 2 weeks just in case it turned out to be a false negative. Since then i had 2 more PCR tests @ work last year, also negative, and had two of those rapid tests this year, also negative: i'm expected to take a 3rd rapid test @ work this Monday. Our instructions are, if these rapid tests either come back inconclusive or with a positive result, we are then scheduled a PCR test to "get to the bottom of it".

That makes sense, thanks for clarifying!

I know in November when I tested positive for Covid, they did do a follow up, the part of my life is a huge huge brain fog... so I really barely remember it, but now that I think about it you are correct, the state did follow up with me to see if I had recovered. It was optional though, I did not have to participate. So that right there leaves some huge... discrepancy regarding the numbers if they are accurate, etc. (for the record I did participate) lol no reason not to imo.

what made me mad the most, is the idiots who gave my Dad covid at work, were redneck boys and didn't really care. so I did all of that work with the surveys, phone calls, WHILE SICK... why the origin of the people who got me sick were just sniffle lucky types and didn't have to do any of that work with the state... really really makes me mad... I do everything right and I get punished, and the idiots who gave it to me my Dad who eventually gave it to me... didn't have to do any work or surveys... really annoys crap out of me.

 

[HTC]

I was just reading an article that said that even with people that took the first shot and the booster the protection might not last very long. A third shot might be necessary later on.

Also it stated that 39% of the people in my country (USA) are fully vaccinated right now.

Moderna and Pfizer are already developing COVID-19 vaccine boosters. Do we need a third shot?

While vaccine booster MAY prove important, i think it's MORE important to ensure the WORLD is vaccinated: @ least 70% of it, so that we may finally FINALLY resume normalcy.

Failure to do this MAY result in further mutations and, the more mutations there are, the better the chance ONE of them "gets around" the current vaccines and sends us back to square one.

 

[Xzibit]

I was just reading an article that said that even with people that took the first shot and the booster the protection might not last very long. A third shot might be necessary later on.

Also it stated that 39% of the people in my country (USA) are fully vaccinated right now.

Moderna and Pfizer are already developing COVID-19 vaccine boosters. Do we need a third shot?

All 3 of the major vax makers in the USA (Pfizer,Moderna and J&J) have said either boosters or re-vax with-in 12months like a Flu shot.

 

[ThrashZone]

While vaccine booster MAY prove important, i think it's MORE important to ensure the WORLD is vaccinated: @ least 70% of it, so that we may finally FINALLY resume normalcy.

Failure to do this MAY result in further mutations and, the more mutations there are, the better the chance ONE of them "gets around" the current vaccines and sends us back to square one.

Hi,
What this has really shown is global migration needs to change and these tests and vaccines are needed for all that do travel.

 

[95Viper]

Stay on Topic, please.
Thank You