Next-gen Games Consoles Predicted to Cost More or Offer Smaller Performance Uplift

[T0@st]

Hiroki Totoki—Chief Operating Officer (COO) and president of Sony Group Corporation—expressed slight disappointment in PlayStation 5's Q3Y23 sales performance. The console's lifetime total (since November 2020) hit an impressive 50 million units sold milestone last December, but Sony's top brass had set an aggressive target of 25 million PS5 units sold through the fiscal year of 2023. A recent company earnings call highlighted a revised sales goal of 21 million units, and the PlayStation top executive's uneasy outlook for the fourth quarter and beyond. Genki Japan parsed this information into an easy to digest Tweet: "Sony COO Totoki said that it is harder to grow profits on the PS5 as the life cycle goes on in comparison to previous generations. With previous gens as time went on it became cheaper to produce them. But with PS5 the parts are becoming more expensive as the life cycle goes on."

Well known hardware tipster—Kepler_L2—followed up on Genki's brief report with an insight into semiconductor conditions (current day and in times ahead): "Cost per transistor has remained flat through FinFETs and will go up with GAAFETs/CFETs. The days of free cost savings with die shrinks is over and things will only get worse. Future consoles will either have increasingly smaller performance gains or significantly higher prices." Kepler_L2 has a pretty good track record of covering unreleased AMD CPU and GPU technologies, particularly in the field of Sony and Microsoft gaming hardware—they were last seen weighing in on the matter of speculated PlayStation 5 Pro specifications. Industry observers believe that the proper next-generation PlayStation and Xbox consoles will launch with insides occupied by Team Red-designed tech, despite early 2024 rumblings of NVIDIA and Intel pitching in with shopped proposals.



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[Vayra86]

Easy solution, ride the gen longer, produce better machines that last longer. Then you've got more time to sell your games on said console.

 

[CrAsHnBuRnXp]

If it starts getting more expensive, people will most likely move to PC gaming which would be nice overall.

 

[Denver]

Easy solution, ride the gen longer, produce better machines that last longer. Then you've got more time to sell your games on said console.

Perhaps they should consider an MCM design that combines chips from different processes. In this approach, the caches can remain at 6nm, as they are not subject to scaling.

 

[SOAREVERSOR]

If it starts getting more expensive, people will most likely move to PC gaming which would be nice overall.

Won't happen ever. PC is the incel ugly person zone of gaming and that hasn't changed. It has a stench over it that cannot be removed. Don't hire, don't date, don't be friends with, it's that bad of a stigma.

 

[FoulOnWhite]

Won't happen ever. PC is the incel ugly person zone of gaming and that hasn't changed. It has a stench over it that cannot be removed. Don't hire, don't date, don't be friends with, it's that bad of a stigma.

Yeah but it smashes in the face of the weedy consoles

 

[cvaldes]

If it starts getting more expensive, people will most likely move to PC gaming which would be nice overall.

Yes, a significant influx of PC gamers would increase demand for graphics cards.

That sounds wonderful.

As well can all agree on, GPUs are way too cheap right now. Companies like Nvidia are probably just weeks away from filing bankruptcy. They really need to charge more for their graphics cards.

 

[Double-Click]

Easy solution, ride the gen longer, produce better machines that last longer. Then you've got more time to sell your games on said console.

True, "pro" consoles (or refresh, because that's what it is) weren't a thing until more recently.
You'd get slim models on the back 9 of the product life cycle but that was it.

 

[Dimitriman]

I mean, feel free to try to cheap it out, you are not only competing with PC as always but also game streaming now so.... yeah, not a good idea.

 

[Battler624]

Thats why competition is good. TSMC is too far ahead of everyone else that they can sell wafers at insane prices.

Come on intel/samsung/glofo?/china.

 

[FoulOnWhite]

Thats why competition is good. TSMC is too far ahead of everyone else that they can sell wafers at insane prices.

Come on intel/samsung/glofo?/china.

Even though a lot on TPU want Intel to fail, i am not counting them out.

There are a lot of console buyers, so even price increases won't make them move to a PC imo as that would be an even bigger price cost.

 

[chrcoluk]

Easy solution, ride the gen longer, produce better machines that last longer. Then you've got more time to sell your games on said console.

Idea is too sensible for corporate.

 

[TechLurker]

Personally, I agree with others that the next-gen Consoles should be designed with longevity rather than mid-cycle refresh again.

Basically, go all out in making the next-gen consoles a "Pro Edition" from the start, and mid-cycle refreshes would instead be cooler due to improvements in production, much like what was done in the PS1-PS3 era, with mid-cycle refreshes producing slimmer, cooler-running consoles with near-identical performance (backwards compatibility aside in the case of the latter PS3s). Or if they want, make use of production refinements to push both a power mode and an efficiency mode on the refreshed console, kind of like what the PS4 Pro did offer in some games. In this case, a Performance Mode that uses improvements to further push gaming quality while maintaining the same maximum operating temperature levels of the release-gen console, or an Efficiency Mode that keeps things at the same level of performance as the release-gen console, but with lower heat output.

The other possibility is maybe making the GPU element upgradable, kind of like the Frameworks laptops and other experimental one-off laptops that allowed GPU upgrades. In this case, making use of a proprietary, slotted mobile GPU. Either the old GPU can be swapped out, or the console would have the expansion bay built-in and can swap over to using the new GPU while either shifting APU resources towards the CPU cores (providing a processing boost) or repurpose the iGPUs for light AI purposes.

 

[Dimitriman]

Even though a lot on TPU want Intel to fail, i am not counting them out.

There are a lot of console buyers, so even price increases won't make them move to a PC imo as that would be an even bigger price cost.

They can move to PC if all it takes is a browser and fast internet to play on geforce now and similar...

 

[trsttte]

It's not like we're in desperate need of a performance uplift anyway, the current gen can already game at 4k60 and probably half the user base is still using them with older 1080p TVs. I don't even see the PS5 Pro being particularly atractive because of exactly this, there's not much to go after.

Sure, you could bring 120Hz gaming to consoles but that's not realistically going to happen sadly - games won't support it because of general lazyness to patch things to unlock performance - what will be the Pro model selling point exactly?

The PS6 having a smaller performance uplift will be absolutely fine.

Sony's top brass had set an aggressive target of 25 million PS5 units sold through the fiscal year of 2023. A recent company earnings call highlighted a revised sales goal of 21 million units, and the PlayStation top executive's uneasy outlook for the fourth quarter and beyond

Fucking idiots, they had an amazingly successful launch because the market conditions were completely abnormal - pandemic and crypto boom making gpus unobtanium - and they rode that while they could. But those conditions are no more and game releases have been very uninteresting, they set themselves up for failure lol

 

[A&P211]

If it starts getting more expensive, people will most likely move to PC gaming which would be nice overall.

Dont think that PC gaming will get cheaper. Playstations are made from the same stuff.

 

[Jism]

Easy solution, ride the gen longer, produce better machines that last longer. Then you've got more time to sell your games on said console.

Or simply start utilizing all those cores equipped with CPU's. 20 years ago it was a breakthrough having a dual / 2 core CPU. Now we have more cores then we could ever think or dream of.

 

[Kohl Baas]

Easy solution, ride the gen longer, produce better machines that last longer. Then you've got more time to sell your games on said console.

It's no longer an option. Back towards the end of the PS3/X360 era rose an unforseen problem. The aging HW of the consoles started to seriously holding back the game industry in general from adapting the new technologies. Same issues with using 6-8 years old GPUs in PC gaming. You can watch what can you do with a GTX 1660 Ti today on a 4K screen. It were the "high power" console manufacturers: Sony and Microsoft whom made the decision that a new console and/or a refresh is needed about every 3-4 years to be able to adapt the ever growing needs of gaming.

 

[Vayra86]

It's no longer an option. Back towards the end of the PS3/X360 era rose an unforseen problem. The aging HW of the consoles started to seriously holding back the game industry in general from adapting the new technologies. Same issues with using 6-8 years old GPUs in PC gaming. You can watch what can you do with a GTX 1660 Ti today on a 4K screen. It were the "high power" console manufacturers: Sony and Microsoft whom made the decision that a new console and/or a refresh is needed about every 3-4 years to be able to adapt the ever growing needs of gaming.

Nonsense.
Its a strategy that can be adapted. And the advances now arent that fast anymore. We made a jump, but that was yesteryear.

Its a matter of choices.

 

[Broken Processor]

It makes sense that consoles would get more expensive to account for the node cost what I don't get is why it's an issue. People are dumb and will get into debt for anything these days.

The die shrink days having a massive impact on performance are gone it's been innovation like chiplets that's exciting. They have known for year's now what way the industry was heading let's hope they have planned accordingly.

But tbh only consoles I'm remotely interested in is the switch 2 and whenever the new steam deck comes out. Switch and steam deck made the ps5 and xbsx obsolete for me to the point I've sold them my PC is more than enough for that big screen experience. Personally for me the market shifted I hope Xbox and play station can keep up.

 

[FoulOnWhite]

Personally, I agree with others that the next-gen Consoles should be designed with longevity rather than mid-cycle refresh again.

Basically, go all out in making the next-gen consoles a "Pro Edition" from the start, and mid-cycle refreshes would instead be cooler due to improvements in production, much like what was done in the PS1-PS3 era, with mid-cycle refreshes producing slimmer, cooler-running consoles with near-identical performance (backwards compatibility aside in the case of the latter PS3s). Or if they want, make use of production refinements to push both a power mode and an efficiency mode on the refreshed console, kind of like what the PS4 Pro did offer in some games. In this case, a Performance Mode that uses improvements to further push gaming quality while maintaining the same maximum operating temperature levels of the release-gen console, or an Efficiency Mode that keeps things at the same level of performance as the release-gen console, but with lower heat output.

The other possibility is maybe making the GPU element upgradable, kind of like the Frameworks laptops and other experimental one-off laptops that allowed GPU upgrades. In this case, making use of a proprietary, slotted mobile GPU. Either the old GPU can be swapped out, or the console would have the expansion bay built-in and can swap over to using the new GPU while either shifting APU resources towards the CPU cores (providing a processing boost) or repurpose the iGPUs for light AI purposes.

They could even use MXM modules of some sort for the GPU to make it upgradeable, pretty sure they could get Nvidia and AMD to make said modules in MXM format.

It makes sense that consoles would get more expensive to account for the node cost what I don't get is why it's an issue. People are dumb and will get into debt for anything these days.

The die shrink days having a massive impact on performance are gone it's been innovation like chiplets that's exciting. They have known for year's now what way the industry was heading let's hope they have planned accordingly.

But tbh only consoles I'm remotely interested in is the switch 2 and whenever the new steam deck comes out. Switch and steam deck made the ps5 and xbsx obsolete for me to the point I've sold them my PC is more than enough for that big screen experience. Personally for me the market shifted I hope Xbox and play station can keep up.

I actually sold my switch and use ryujinx now, its as good as a switch with a xbox pad for control. I just saw switch 2 is now going to be 2025 though which is a downer. I love the switch and spent about £500 on the store but like the convenience of having it all on my PC, i'd be overjoyed if Nintendo made the roms somehow downloadable for use with the emulator, with some sort of user ID lock so they can't be shared. I'd spend another 500 on them then.

 

[chrcoluk]

Snes I remember allowed chips inside cartridges to add new capability to game engines.

I think now PS5 and Xbox are both Ryzen/NVME as standard, they could get away with not releasing a new gen for a while, graphics are easy, just down scale to the GPU as well as skipping or minimising RT which is a resource hog. With some foresight they maybe could have implemented some kind of external PCIe connector.

 

[dinmaster]

Modular design to change parts. N64 had a ram cartridge. Maybe have cpu and gpu catridges that can be changed. Pcie 6 won't matter as the current 5 could carry to pcie7 or even 8 before switching to it via a new motherboard...

 

[user556]

It makes sense that consoles would get more expensive to account for the node cost what I don't get is why it's an issue. People are dumb and will get into debt for anything these days.

It's an issue for the company's bottom line. They really do fret over the price point.

The die shrink days having a massive impact on performance are gone it's been innovation like chiplets that's exciting. They have known for year's now what way the industry was heading let's hope they have planned accordingly.

Chiplets are cool and all but they also add cost. That's a perfect example of what the concern is. The transistor shrink is minimal, the thermals are no better, the simplest way to add more features is to go bigger but that's prohibitively expensive so the alternative is go modular. Brings the cost back down somewhat but the simplicity is gone and the thermals are worse. It has the inevitability of more pieces equals more cost.

 

[ZoneDymo]

Eh sour old man here, I would say its not a lack of power that is holding the consoles/games back....its the lack of talented developers.