Notebook Industry Remains Cautious Amid Tariff Negotiations; 2025 Brand Shipments Growth Revised Down to 1.4%

[TheLostSwede]

TrendForce's latest research reveals that although the U.S. has granted a 90-day grace period before implementing reciprocal tariffs—offering temporary relief for notebook brands—the broader market remains clouded by policy and economic uncertainty. Brands began frontloading inventory in late 2024, pushing Q4 shipment growth to 5.1%, with 1Q25 seeing a 7.2% YoY increase.

However, given persistent economic weakness and rising tariff risks, TrendForce has revised the full-year 2025 notebook brand shipment growth forecast downward from 3.6% to just 1.4%.




The U.S. currently maintains a 0% tariff on notebooks imported from Southeast Asia, while imposing a 20% import duty on those from China. This discrepancy has driven brands to accelerate shipments from Vietnam, Thailand, and other regional hubs.

U.S.-based brands, having invested early in Southeast Asia, enjoy greater flexibility and are better positioned to replenish North American inventory during the 90-day exemption. In contrast, non-U.S. brands, whose Southeast Asian supply chains are still under development, face limited short-term adaptability.

Risk of Annual Decline if Tariff Negotiations Fail
The U.S. remains the world's largest single notebook market, accounting for approximately 30% of global demand. Although the short-term tariff delay is helping brands sustain shipments, TrendForce expects a strong likelihood of retail price increases that may suppress both consumer and commercial upgrade cycles. Should China retaliate with tariffs on U.S. key components, the resulting higher production costs could force brands to adopt more conservative production and procurement strategies.

Brands are closely monitoring the progress of U.S. trade negotiations with other countries. If tariffs on imports from Southeast Asia are eventually capped at 10-20%, it could alleviate cost pressures and stabilize market sentiment. However, price hikes and weakened demand in the second half of 2025 may become unavoidable if talks break down and policy risks escalate—potentially dragging down annual notebook brand shipment growth down to -2.1%.

View at TechPowerUp Main Site | Source

 

[Caring1]

America better start producing it's own goods again if they want to avoid tariffs.

 

[Vayra86]

Negotiations... lol. Forget it. The trajectory is clear, the damage is done. You have to be a special kind of stupid to work with a potus like this. 'Come negotiate with me, I never honor deals anyway and screw the rules'... lmao. I can't imagine there isn't a country on the planet NOT finding new ways to keep their business afloat without the US.

And of course there are lots of people hoping its not that bad... but you need two seconds to look in the mirror and realize you're just fooling yourself then. Trust is easy to lose, and was actively murdered here.

America better start producing it's own goods again if they want to avoid tariffs.

Exactly. China has already taken the initiative here by saying they are just capping at 125% whatever happens next. They have a few nuclear missiles ready for launch, most notably the rare earth metals supply. If China even mentions the countdown on that... the US is going to fall off the economical cliff.

 

[_roman_]

No issues with refurbished windows 11 pro notebooks. works as a better typewriter. For more performance i need a desktop anyway

It s never a good point to buy hardware. Now we have another excuse. before it was this and before it was the mining boom. always an excuse to drive prices up. up up up up

 

[Frick]

America better start producing it's own goods again if they want to avoid tariffs.

Yeah! Just start building factories! It took China decades to get to where they are, with theie immense production chains, it'll take pure-hearted Americans a few months to set that up.

Exactly. China has already taken the initiative here by saying they are just capping at 125% whatever happens next. They have a few nuclear missiles ready for launch, most notably the rare earth metals supply.

They suspended export for some of those a few weeks ago.

 

[Scattergrunt]

Negotiations... lol. Forget it. The trajectory is clear, the damage is done. You have to be a special kind of stupid to work with a potus like this. 'Come negotiate with me, I never honor deals anyway and screw the rules'... lmao. I can't imagine there isn't a country on the planet NOT finding new ways to keep their business afloat without the US.

Watching this unfold is hard to sit by, especially knowing that so many people are perfectly contempt with this where I live. Its aggravating.