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I should also throw in here, the Fed is not raising your interest rate. Consumer Interest rates are based on the 10Y treasury.

My mortgage is literally 2.3% while my 2-year duration Bond funds are yielding 3% right now.

"My" interest rates have definitely changed and I'm changing my behavior because of it. I'm buying up more short-term debt to take advantage of 2% money market and 3% CDs that have sprung up.

They have in fact dropped 0.9% since then and the Fed has raised its rates 1.5% total.

You might want to think about why that is working backwards from the way you say.

Because the Eurozone is crap right now and people are fleeing. Sending money to US-debt, pushing 10Y interest rates down.

Please teach me on how inflation works then?

Prices go up. For example, a dozen eggs cost .065 mBTC in December 2021, but today they cost 0.125 mBTC.

While there's a variety of reasons for this happening, some of the more important ones are the price of fuel (ex: if it costs more to deliver eggs to your grocery store, their costs will go up). The cost of fuel has skyrocketed (and calmed down a bit...) ever since a large oil-producing nation went to war with another energy-providing nation starting in Feb, 2022.

Or, in the case of BTC, a collapse of historical magnitude happens as it turns out it was a rather bad "inflation hedge", and you probably shouldn't trust what the community promising "BTC is an inflation hedge" has to say about inflation.
 

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probably shouldn't trust what the community promising

So am I supposed to trust the government instead who puts the official cash rate up?

Edit: Also a Simple analogy I learnt mainly from BTC was, BTC was buying more of a shopping trolley now (if you bought 3 years ago - 4 year cycles) than my cash is buying now.

My BTC shopping trolley is full where my $$$ of cash the shopping trolley is half empty.

Maybe a bad analogy? Time will tell.
 
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So am I supposed to trust the government instead by putting the official cash rate up?

Liars here, liars there.

The fact remains that the Fed statistics (such as the M1, M2, etc. etc.) measurements reflect reality. Meanwhile, the investments in say, 3AC or Celsius or Voyager do not.

Perhaps some of these people are less of a liar than you think. And some others are bigger liars than you originally thought.

-------

At the end of the day, the Fed is increasing interest rates, and this has an effect of decreasing M1 and M2, and we can already see the difference it is making. There's a policy debate if this is a worthwhile tradeoff (lowering M1 / M2 has the side effect of making recessions more likely), but the current plan of the Fed is clearly to cut back on inflation more so than the recession fear.
 

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My mortgage is literally 2.3% while my 2-year duration Bond funds are yielding 3% right now.

That's actually fairly meaningless. If you bought bonds at 1% last year, they are yielding 3% now because they are worth a lot less than you paid for them.
 
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You do realize there have been billions lost (possible trillions) over global fiat company's that people have invested in?

Dude. I literally have a coworker who lost fucking everything in Celsius.

This ain't some theoretical discussion to me. The cryptocoin community fucked his investments.

Fortunately, he's not the worst sob case. He had a fair bit of money in Celsius but he will be fine (he's got some other investments in other places)
 
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Please remember you a comparing a two century old system vs a decade.

Also, you a comparing a crypto risk management systems and not a fiat one. You do realize there have been billions lost (possible trillions) over global fiat company's that people have invested in?

List of largest corporate profits and losses - Wikipedia

Do I have any valid claims here?

Nice link man now I have something to go look up.

This is impressive.
1659659737099.png



 
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That's actually fairly meaningless. If you bought bonds at 1% last year, they are yielding 3% now because they are worth a lot less than you paid for them.

The opposite.

I got a mortgage refinance last year and am now buying more bonds today. I actually was expecting some economic downturn so I have a fair amount in cash.

Bear market plays yo.
 
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How do you explain interest rates going up then? So far for us down under its 2% up and not stopping.
There is something going in Europe that is driving up Interest Rates across the "West". Please don't forget about the snarling of supply chain and the rush on products and services when everything reopened.
 
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There is something going in Europe that is driving up Interest Rates across the "West". Please don't forget about the snarling of supply chain and the rush on products and services when everything reopened.

Interest rates are falling. Please keep up.
 

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Interest rates are falling. Please keep up.
The Central Bank rates are not falling. Just last week The US and Canada raised rates by another .75%. Just because some things have come down in price does not mean that plenty of things are still way too expensive.
 
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Who the fuck invests in Celsius? This is a very bad idea from a risk asset point of view.

I'm sorry for your mates loss.

Lol.

You claim to know about BTC but you really don't seem to know how this works at all?

He held BTC in Celsius. It's all gone if you haven't noticed. Just bam, gone.

Now tell me, when was the last time an exchange lost your shares when they still had value?
 
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The Central Bank rates are not falling. Just last week The US and Canada raised rates by another .75%. Just because some things have come down in price does not mean that plenty of things are still way too expensive.

Who exactly do you think it is that pays the overnight fed lending rate, and to whom do you think they pay it?
 

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Lol.

You claim to know about BTC but you really don't seem to know how this works at all?

He held BTC in Celsius. It's all gone if you haven't noticed. Just bam, gone.

Now tell me, when was the last time an exchange lost your shares when they still had value?

LOL, why didn't he buy BTC directly from an exchange. WTF. I sure as hell wouldn't trust no business to hold my BTC. LMAO

I lost shares years ago when the business went bust. BAM Gone
 
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LOL, why didn't he buy BTC directly from an exchange. WTF. I sure as hell wouldn't trust no business to hold my BTC. LMAO

The scamsters at these places promised them stuff like 20% APR on their deposits. I want to feel sorry for these people, but really, I wouldn't trust Bank of America if they told me that much less some bitcoin bank wannabe ponzi ripoff artists - and there are a lot more of those out there.
 
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Who exactly do you think it is that pays the overnight fed lending rate, and to whom do you think they pay it?
I can only speak for where I live and in Canada the Central Bank has the Mint print the money (Both Government agencies) and then lend's it to the Banks like Royal, TD, CIBC who then sell mortgages, credit cards, car loans and investment loans at a rate above that benchmark. Those rates have not been adjusted in over 27-30 years and regardless of how you may feel a plane full of military class bullet proof vests is expensive to procure, assemble and transport across one of the World's great Oceans.
 

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The scamsters at these places promised them stuff like 20% APR on their deposits. I want to feel sorry for these people, but really, I wouldn't trust Bank of America if they told me that much less some bitcoin bank wannabe ponzi ripoff artists - and there are a lot more of those out there.

Well if you've been in crypto for a long enough you'd know this isnt wise.
 
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LOL, why didn't he buy BTC directly from an exchange. WTF. I sure as hell wouldn't trust no business to hold my BTC. LMAO

I lost shares years ago when the business went bust. BAM Gone

An exchange like My. Gox?

You know that Coinbase is looking rather shady recently, right? Are you really as safe as you think you are?

Or what, buying overseas untrusted crap like Binance? Who do you use?

You know just as much as I do that all these guys are scammers and frauds.
 

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I can only speak for where I live and in Canada the Central Bank has the Mint print the money (Both Government agencies) and then lend's it to the Banks like Royal, TD, CIBC who then sell mortgages, credit cards, car loans and investment loans at a rate above that benchmark. Those rates have not been adjusted in over 27-30 years and regardless of how you may feel a plane full of military class bullet proof vests is expensive to procure, assemble and transport across one of the World's great Oceans.

Well I don't know how Canada does it but for most of the west, every bank must maintain a certain amount of reserves. The US Fed lowered that in 2020 and has not raised it yet.

If they lend out so much that they don't have enough reserves, they can overnight borrow from other banks to meet reserve requirements. The overnight lending rate is what the banks pay to other banks for that loan. This is simplified but mostly correct.

The Fed sets that overnight lending rate. Because it costs more to loan overnight, if a bank is low on reserves it will need to charge higher interest for loans to consumers that it lent to when going under reserve requirements.

Of course, this is assuming they went under reserve requirements and need to do this at all. If they didn't, then they can lend their excess cash to other banks and get the Fed Fund rate as interest.

Thing is, most banks have a ton of reserves due to the printing press and those M1/M2 numbers. But we don't have to guess that, we can look - keep in mind minimum reserve requirements were lowered in 2020, so not only have reserves gone way, way, way up - they also aren't required to keep as much.

So, banks are awash in money basically.

If you take the 3 charts, M1, M2, and bank reserves, the problem is clear. The entire system is awash in money. Not just a little bit, 40% added to M2, 500% on M1, and banks have 200% more reserves than they had in 2019.

This is why we have so much inflation.



1659661272243.png
 
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Well if you've been in crypto for a long enough you'd know this isnt wise.

I've been in crypto since Mt. Gox, where I bought my BTC.

EDIT: I've sold off and got my profits from this gig. I'm mostly frustrated at the lack of technical discussions these days and instead of all the (crap) economic principles people would rather talk about. I miss the days where people would talk about new protocols for escrow transfers and other technical achievements. When I realized that the cryptocoin world was more interested in making money (rather than improving the monetary system), I mostly sold off an became a side observer instead. This was around the BTC vs BCH fork if you remember that, where I "woke up" so to speak and realized that the cryptocoin world has become full of greedy assholes rather than technical achievers like from the early days.

Well you seem to be the economics master. Ill let you decide.

I did decide. This entire cryptocoin community is shit and you know it. Scammers all around.

You pretend that the BTC protocol has solved the trust issue. The last 10 years show anything but that.

No seriously, do you trust your BTC exchange? Not your wallet not your coins. Coinbase is involved in this staking fee crap, and Binance is connected to Tether . Gemini is also staking coins for high APY. Etc etc. Who the hell do you trust?
 
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This entire cryptocoin community is shit and you know it

Well, I'm not sure what your doing wrong but I have made nothing but money since I've been involved.

Yes I had to do some initial investments but like I say, BTC is buying me more and more of the shopping trolley than $$$ Dollars.

I see why your so anti crypto. Just because of your miserable experiences, doesn't mean to say that the rest of us have to follow suit.


BTC
istockphoto-480506976-612x612.jpg


CASH
F0036373-Shopping_Cart_in_Supermarket_Aisle.jpg


This has been the general experience for me.

Only time will tell if this continues or not.
 
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