Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[dragontamer5788]

You linked a chart with people who have a laundry list of pre-existing conditions. The case you reference alone lists 5. To compare people with that medical history to a healthy young adult is asinine.

You are welcome to link your own chart of COVID19 death certificates to indicate the problem you're worried about.

My demonstration has the effect I want. People don't only die of pneumonia: they also die of liver failure, septic shock, heart attacks, and ARDS. Pneumonia is but one way to die of COVID19.

 

[Xzibit]

You misunderstand the point of the CDC publishing graphs like that.

The suggestion is that those pneumonia counts are in fact COVID19 deaths that have been mislabeled. People didn't suddenly start dying of pneumonia in high numbers in 2020. They were dying of COVID19, and likely were miscategorized as a pneumonia death.

COVID19 also kills with other deaths not necessarily related to pneumonia. So your proposition to subtracting out non-pneumonia COVID deaths is pretty arbitrary. Acute Renal Failure is another cause of death IIRC associated with COVID19.

Table 1 Clinical causes of death and documented comorbidities in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

www.nature.com

View attachment 211254

Lets take case #1: death by Hypoxia (suffocation), and ARDS (acute respitory distress syndrome), but no pneumonia at all. Why do you remove case #1 from your counts?

Case #8 is the Cardiovascular failure. Plenty of Septic Shock. How many of these cases do you want to remove from the COVID19 death counts?

Might want to clarify

Our findings reveal that causes of death were directly related to COVID-19 in most cases and not an immediate consequence of preexisting health conditions and comorbidities, i.e. these patients—despite often suffering from severe health conditions—would not have died in the absence of a SARS-CoV-2 infection at the given time point.

 

[ShiBDiB]

You are welcome to link your own chart of COVID19 death certificates to indicate the problem you're worried about.

My demonstration has the effect I want. People don't only die of pneumonia: they also die of liver failure, septic shock, heart attacks, and ARDS. Pneumonia is but one way to die of COVID19.

Your demonstration took all the variables that were being used in the discussion and completely ignored them.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Your demonstration took all the variables that were being used in the discussion and completely ignored them.

Sure. You've attacked my data. That's fine.

But you haven't posted any data supporting your stance yet. Please, demonstrate to me why you think that young folk are exclusively dying of pneumonia. Given what I've seen from other age groups, I'd expect to see the same thing from young folks: yes, most pneumonia, but also ARDS, liver failure, septic shock and so forth.

 

[ShiBDiB]

Sure. You've attacked my data. That's fine.

But you haven't posted any data supporting your stance yet. Please, demonstrate to me why you think that young folk are exclusively dying of pneumonia. Given what I've seen from other age groups, I'd expect to see the same thing from young folks: yes, most pneumonia, but also ARDS, liver failure, septic shock and so forth.

I'm not attacking your data.. I'm attacking your entire argument because it's baseless when it comes to the discussion.

If providing links to CDC data isn't good enough than there's not much else I can provide you.

 

[dragontamer5788]

If providing links to CDC data isn't good enough than there's not much else I can provide you.

Your discussion points don't match the data you posted.

with only 4500 having died with pneumonia and also covid (making covid the more likely cause of death rather than a secondary/tertiary cause)

This comment of yours is wrong. Hypoxia / ADRS is an incredibly common way to die with COVID without necessarily ever having pneumonia at all. Just having your lungs fail on their own (without getting your lungs water-logged) is a separate mode of death and categorized as such.

You are implying that we should only count pneumonia deaths with that line. That is a commonly said, and mistaken, assumption. Comorbidities don't work like that. Death categorizations don't work like that.

 

[Space Lynx]

Vaccinated People Three Times Less Likely to Contract Delta Variant in UK Study

Fully vaccinated people were three times less likely to contract any infection, including infections with no symptoms, than unvaccinated people.

gizmodo.com

this is good news. breakthrough cases are real for certain. but vaccinated is still better.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Compared to the last time I posted (https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/...tics-tracking-of-covid-19.264697/post-4569649), the top states (Florida / Louisiana) were growing at 100% or 50% growth week-over-week.

We're seeing a slowdown in growth (2nd derivative is negative). The number of cases and hospitalizations continue to rise, but when the 2nd derivative goes negative that's called an "inflection point". Its the first sign that things may be getting better. But it will take another few weeks before the case numbers actually decline.

Its probably a foregone conclusion that places like Florida will have extremely stressed hospital systems. They have to deal with a (projected) increase in cases for the next few weeks in a row.

'There are only so many beds': COVID-19 surge hits hospitals

Coronavirus hospitalizations are once again surging as the virus’ more potent delta variant cuts across the country.

apnews.com

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (AP) — Florida hospitals slammed with COVID-19 patients are suspending elective surgeries and putting beds in conference rooms, an auditorium and a cafeteria. As of midweek, Mississippi had just six open intensive care beds in the entire state.

Florida, Georgia, Louisiana and Mississippi alone account for more than 40% of all hospitalizations in the country.

Mississippi has one of the lowest vaccination rates in the nation, with less than 35% of its population fully inoculated, and Louisiana and Georgia aren’t much better, at around 38%. Florida is closer to the national rate at 49%, but none of the four Southern states comes close to the New England region, where most states are well over 60%.

This is becoming a major cluster of COVID19 for sure.

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USA-case growth in general was 50% week-over-week growth last time and 43% week-over-week growth today. Not really much of a change on that front: Delta continues to spread at an alarming rate across the country in general (but especially in the unvaccinated areas).

As a country: we've gone from 13 new cases per 100k to 29 new cases per 100k. Hospitalization statistics are beginning to climb exponentially (correlating with that big exponential neck you see in all of those states). Once again, the numbers prove usable. An increase in #cases leads to an increase in #hospitalized a few weeks later. We can use these numbers to inform policy and predict the future reliably.

 

[Space Lynx]

View attachment 211331

Compared to the last time I posted (https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/...tics-tracking-of-covid-19.264697/post-4569649), the top states (Florida / Louisiana) were growing at 100% or 50% growth week-over-week.

We're seeing a slowdown in growth (2nd derivative is negative). The number of cases and hospitalizations continue to rise, but when the 2nd derivative goes negative that's called an "inflection point". Its the first sign that things may be getting better. But it will take another few weeks before the case numbers actually decline.

Its probably a foregone conclusion that places like Florida will have extremely stressed hospital systems. They have to deal with a (projected) increase in cases for the next few weeks in a row.

'There are only so many beds': COVID-19 surge hits hospitals

Coronavirus hospitalizations are once again surging as the virus’ more potent delta variant cuts across the country.

apnews.com

This is becoming a major cluster of COVID19 for sure.

-------

USA-case growth in general was 50% week-over-week growth last time and 43% week-over-week growth today. Not really much of a change on that front: Delta continues to spread at an alarming rate across the country in general (but especially in the unvaccinated areas).

As a country: we've gone from 13 new cases per 100k to 29 new cases per 100k. Hospitalization statistics are beginning to climb exponentially (correlating with that big exponential neck you see in all of those states). Once again, the numbers prove usable. An increase in #cases leads to an increase in #hospitalized a few weeks later. We can use these numbers to inform policy and predict the future reliably.

yeah but the thing is are the deaths really that high in these areas? my guess is since this is Florida, what happens is, you get someone who needs oxygen due to covid, they recover, say thanks for the oxygen and told you it was nothing i beat it easy didn't even need ventilator, and they still won't get the vaccine within next 6 months.

so I mean, really, what's the point anymore? get your two shots, wear a mask, and move on with life, if IF a new variant comes that breaks the vaccine then we will deal with that and that rhetoric then, until then, its time to start living again.

 

[dragontamer5788]

yeah but the thing is are the deaths really that high in these areas? my guess is since this is Florida, what happens is, you get someone who needs oxygen due to covid, they recover, say thanks for the oxygen and told you it was nothing i beat it easy didn't even need ventilator, and they still won't get the vaccine within next 6 months.

Cases become hospitalizations. Hospitalizations become deaths. One step at a time (with approximately a week or two of delay between steps). This case increase only started a few weeks ago, so we're only seeing the hospital surge now.

But death rates are ticking up too. We're beginning to see that "exponential neck" appear on these Death-charts.

Florida's higher vaccination rate (49.3%) is better than Louisiana (37.2%), and I think we can see the difference in deaths already.

until then, its time to start living again.

I don't think shutdowns are the appropriate response right now. The best response seems to be more vaccine mandates. That way, we can fight the virus while mostly getting on with our lives again. Most of this is IMO, the fault of the unvaccinated.

 

[Space Lynx]

Cases become hospitalizations. Hospitalizations become deaths. One step at a time (with approximately a week or two of delay between steps). This case increase only started a few weeks ago, so we're only seeing the hospital surge now.

But death rates are ticking up too. We're beginning to see that "exponential neck" appear on these Death-charts.

View attachment 211368

Florida's higher vaccination rate (49.3%) is better than Louisiana (37.2%), and I think we can see the difference in deaths already.



I don't think shutdowns are the appropriate response right now. The best response seems to be more vaccine mandates. That way, we can fight the virus while mostly getting on with our lives again. Most of this is IMO, the fault of the unvaccinated.

still you have you to be careful with percentages, cause the actually numbers are probably still extremely low, and that's the main argument the unvaccinated use. they will say stuff like well 400,000 die every year from this common illness how come you didn't make a vaccine for that, etc etc.

but i am on your side on this one so no worries. its very clear vaccine is amazing. Montana and Alaska surprise me a bit, was not expecting to see so many deaths there. @Kursah what's your experience been like living in Montana? just curious

 

[dragontamer5788]

still you have you to be careful with percentages, cause the actually numbers are probably still extremely low, and that's the main argument the unvaccinated use. they will say stuff like well 400,000 die every year from this common illness how come you didn't make a vaccine for that, etc etc.

I realize you're not making the argument... but that discussion point bothers me. Especially when you know the numbers for 2020: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm

Note:

† Deaths for which COVID-19 was a contributing, but not the underlying, cause of death are not included in this figure.

.

"Unintentional Injury" is not a singular cause of death. There are car-accidents. People fall off of roofs. People get sucked into grain silos. All accidents combined last year pales in comparison with COVID19.

Cancer and Heart Disease are similarly, "categories" of death IMO more so than anything else. There's lung cancer, there's brain cancer, skin cancer, etc. etc. Many many different cancers (and many doctors believe that even a focus on one category: such as Brain Cancer, could be 10 different diseases with similar results).

-----------

We can also see how the lockdowns / shutdowns affected our deaths last year rather dramatically.

Notice that "other deaths" are roughly constant. The big variance over the year was COVID19. And we can control this disease with a readily available vaccine with huge efficacy (over 98% effective at stopping death).

 

[Space Lynx]

I realize you're not making the argument... but that discussion point bothers me. Especially when you know the numbers for 2020: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm

View attachment 211369

Note: .

"Unintentional Injury" is not a singular cause of death. There are car-accidents. People fall off of roofs. People get sucked into grain silos. All accidents combined last year pales in comparison with COVID19.

Cancer and Heart Disease are similarly, "categories" of death IMO more so than anything else. There's lung cancer, there's brain cancer, skin cancer, etc. etc. Many many different cancers (and many doctors believe that even a focus on one category: such as Brain Cancer, could be 10 different diseases with similar results).

that's my point though. you could argue the government should mandate everyone walks 1 hour every day, if they did and enforced it, the heart disease deaths would probably be cut in half within 5 years. literally no one walks anymore. lol

 

[dragontamer5788]

that's my point though. you could argue the government should mandate everyone walks 1 hour every day, if they did and enforced it, the heart disease deaths would probably be cut in half within 5 years. literally no one walks anymore. lol

I dare say that walking 1-hour each day is harder than taking two shots over 5 weeks. And I doubt that walking 1-hour each day is as effective (98% efficacy) either. Heart disease is also caused by smoking, alcohol, and obesity. So even if you are walking every day, smoking + alcoholic habits would negate the benefits.

But don't worry, I'm working on my heart health in my own ways. . Its the #1 cause of death after all so its something to watch out for.

 

[Xzibit]

August 4 2021

OCFR (Observed Case Fatality Ratio)
USA - 1.7
Mexico - 8.4
UK - 2.2
India - 1.3

I thought we'd be higher given all the doom talk everywhere.

 

[Space Lynx]

August 4 2021

OCFR (Observed Case Fatality Ratio)
USA - 1.7
Mexico - 8.4
UK - 2.2
India - 1.3

I thought we'd be higher given all the doom talk everywhere.

I didn't realize Mexico was having such a hard go of it.

It's proven Alpha variant gets its ass kicked in the hot summer sun, I wonder if Delta has figured out a way to mitigate some of that... hmm...I would expect Mexico being so hot to only have issues in the winter, similar to how nations on the equator have almost 0 covid issues the entire last 18 months. Very interesting / odd. I know Dr. Neil De Grasse Tyson once said you weight like half a pound less at the equator... I wonder if the force of gravity has something to do with almost no covid cases in equator countries? Is the force simply to much for the virus to do its 'aerosol hanging out' thing... hmm

@Drone thoughts? @lexluthermiester

 

[Xzibit]

I didn't realize Mexico was having such a hard go of it.

It's proven Alpha variant gets its ass kicked in the hot summer sun, I wonder if Delta has figured out a way to mitigate some of that... hmm...I would expect Mexico being so hot to only have issues in the winter, similar to how nations on the equator have almost 0 covid issues the entire last 18 months. Very interesting / odd. I know Dr. Neil De Grasse Tyson once said you weight like half a pound less at the equator... I wonder if the force of gravity has something to do with almost no covid cases in equator countries? Is the force simply to much for the virus to do its 'aerosol hanging out' thing... hmm

@Drone thoughts? @lexluthermiester

Doubtful. These are OCFR for some of the equator countries

Ecuador - 6.5
Brazil - 2.8
Colombia - 2.5
Indonesia - 2.8
Malaysia - 0.8

 

[the54thvoid]

August 4 2021

OCFR (Observed Case Fatality Ratio)
USA - 1.7
Mexico - 8.4
UK - 2.2
India - 1.3

I thought we'd be higher given all the doom talk everywhere.

The problem with OCFR stat (which appears to work on reported cases) is that many countries only recorded positive tests from hospitalisations. This is what happened to the UK in the first few months. We were very slow to bring in 'open' testing.

I'm pretty sure this applies to the States as well. On the other hand, some Asian/Oceania countries were testing randomly very early on.

I couldn't see the deaths per 100,000 breakdown (on mobile, not so user friendly). Assuming that was the John Hopkins stats?

Found it. Using deaths per capita, the situation looks very different. Can't put the table up, but the UK and US are close (194 and 187 respectively).

UK has 4th highest in global deaths per capita, US is 6th. Ranking:

Brazil, Columbia, Argentina, UK, Mexico, USA..

 

[Space Lynx]

Doubtful. These are OCFR for some of the equator countries

Ecuador - 6.5
Brazil - 2.8
Colombia - 2.5
Indonesia - 2.8
Malaysia - 0.8

I was thinking more tropical, directly on the equator line. You can't mention Brazil in that sense, its simply to big of a country for the point I was trying to make.

 

[Xzibit]

The problem with OCFR stat (which appears to work on reported cases) is that many countries only recorded positive tests from hospitalisations. This is what happened to the UK in the first few months. We were very slow to bring in 'open' testing.

I'm pretty sure this applies to the States as well. On the other hand, some Asian/Oceania countries were testing randomly very early on.

I couldn't see the deaths per 100,000 breakdown (on mobile, not so user friendly). Assuming that was the John Hopkins stats?

Found it. Using deaths per capita, the situation looks very different. Can't put the table up, but the UK and US are close (194 and 187 respectively).

UK has 4th highest in global deaths per capita, US is 6th. Ranking:

Brazil, Columbia, Argentina, UK, Mexico, USA..

I didn't want to bring healthy people into it

 

[the54thvoid]

I didn't want to bring healthy people into it

Damn them healthies! Gonna force feed them fast food, alcohol, and lethargy to level things up.

 

[lexluthermiester]

It's proven Alpha variant gets its ass kicked in the hot summer sun, I wonder if Delta has figured out a way to mitigate some of that...

The issue with airborne viral viability is a chemistry problem. Not only is there a UV exposure factor but there is an oxidation factor. With Covid, the chemistry of the virus RNA strand makes it more vulnerable to both UV degradation as well as oxidation degradation. In sunlight, viral viability is measured in seconds. In the absence of sunlight, the viability is measure between 45 seconds to 2 minutes, generally. Solvent chemical exposure reduces that viability to milliseconds, depending on the solvent. Oxidizers have a similar viability time-span.

I don't want to guess as to why Mexico is having a harder time with Covid, but it seems heat and sunlight are not playing a great factor in that particular equation. More research and science is needed to come to a logical/reasonable conclusion.

Doubtful. These are OCFR for some of the equator countries

Ecuador - 6.5
Brazil - 2.8
Colombia - 2.5
Indonesia - 2.8
Malaysia - 0.8

And those numbers add to the mystery. Mexico, Brazil, Columbia and Ecuador are geological hops, skips and jumps from each other and yet the spread is all over the place. Economics don't seem to factor in and have a big effect because Brazil is a very wealthy nation and yet has a slightly higher mortality rate than Columbia, Mexico is much more wealthy than Ecuador and yet has a higher rate as well.

 

[johnspack]

Just got my 2nd shot. Will continue to wear masks in all stores. Hope everyone else will do the same.

 

[dragontamer5788]

I don't want to guess as to why Mexico is having a harder time with Covid, but it seems heat and sunlight are not playing a great factor in that particular equation. More research and science is needed to come to a logical/reasonable conclusion.

Its all guesswork and theories.

The widespread guess that I'm liking, is that Southern States, Mexico, (etc. etc.) have higher heat and sun. This causes people to stay inside and chat more with Air Conditioning (malls, homes, etc. etc.). If the temperature were cooler, people would be golfing or walking at the park.

Basically: above a certain temperature, people stay inside. And inside is where the virus spreads.

 

[64K]

Just got my 2nd shot. Will continue to wear masks in all stores. Hope everyone else will do the same.

Almost no one wears a mask where I live. New Covid cases are way up. Hospitalizations, ICU patients and death toll is up.
Only 39% of people in my state have been double vaccinated.